Typically, when I travel back home to KCK from Kauffman Stadium after a game, I listen to Josh Vernier’s postgame show. I often enjoy the perspective Vern has on the game that day, as well as interactions with the fans who call in, which can range from positive to cranky.
After the Royals’ eighth-straight loss to the Yankees (which stems back to the ALDS last year), Vern put it pretty bluntly on his postgame radio show on 96.5 FM when it came to the Royals’ offense (my quote isn’t exactly, but roughly what he said):
“You have to be able to hit home runs or hit with runners in scoring position. But you can’t be bad in both.”
Kansas City ranks last in both categories this year.
Their 46 home runs rank last in baseball, and they rank last in most categories in RISP (runners in scoring position) metrics. That can be seen in the table below, which includes BB%, K%, ISO (isolated slugging), and wRC+. The table is organized by wRC+, which is why KC sits at the bottom.
The Royals’ 56 wRC+ is five points worse than the Rockies, who are the second-worst team in baseball in this particular category. These struggles partially explain why the Royals rank 28th in runs scored and have a -21 run differential despite having the sixth-best RA/G mark (3.65) in the Majors, according to Fangraphs.
Notably, the Royals didn’t experience these struggles last season, as evidenced by the 2024 RISP data from Fangraphs. The Royals ranked as a Top-10 team in RISP wRC+, as shown in the table below.
The Royals’ roster this year is pretty similar to what they had a year ago. One could argue that the Royals theoretically improved by adding Jonathan India to be the leadoff hitter. And yet, last year’s Royals hitters performed way better in RISP situations than this season’s group.
So, what’s the issue, and is there any hope that the Royals could see some positive growth in this area for the season?
Let’s break down the Royals’ RISP struggles and why Kansas City fans should be optimistic about the hitting outlook in these situations shortly (even though it may be hard to feel that way right now after a sweep against the Yankees).
RISP Batted-Ball Regression in 2025
When evaluating the Royals’ struggles as a team with runners in scoring position, examining the batted ball data can be a good starting point.
I broke down how the league was faring in RISP batted ball data this year, via Fangraphs. I focused primarily on the following categories:
- BABIP: Batting average on balls in play.
- LD%: Line Drive percentage
- GB%: Groundball percentage
- FB%: Fly Ball percentage
- IFFB%: Infield Fly Ball percentage
- HR/FB: Home Run to Fly Ball rate
- Pull%: Pull rate
- Hard%: Hard-hit rate
Here’s how teams broke down in those categories this year, as organized by BABIP.
The Royals rank 27th in BABIP with a 0.257 mark. My initial gut was that they are unlucky, but I wanted to break down how they fared in other categories before assuming that hypothesis.
Here’s how they rank in the other batted-ball categories:
- 10th in LD%
- 21st in GB%
- 12th in FB%
- 1st in IFFB%
- 29th in HR/FB
- 16th in Pull%
- 24th in Hard%
So, what can we take away from those rankings, and how does it contribute to the Royals’ low BABIP with runners in scoring position?
For starters, the Royals are hitting a decent number of line drives and putting the ball in the air, both of which are positive developments that can lead to runs. However, they rank 1st in IFFB%, which is not good and likely further explains their 29th ranking in HR/FB rate and 24th ranking in hard-hit rate. The Royals are trying too hard to either put the ball in the air or hit a key line drive, but when it doesn’t click, it often leads to a lot of pop-ups in clutch spots, which usually result in easy outs.
Based on this data, luck could be partially explained for the Royals’ low BABIP in some cases (mainly due to the high line drive rate). Conversely, Kansas City’s penchant for pop-ups in clutch situations may better explain why the Royals are failing to bring home runners in scoring position this season.
Last season, much like wRC+, the Royals’ hitters ranked in the Top 10 in RISP BABIP, as shown in the table below.
The Royals’ .310 RISP BABIP ranked 6th in baseball. Here’s how they also fared in the other categories listed in the table above.
- 10th in LD%
- 24th in GB%
- 13th in FB%
- 3rd in IFFB%
- 21st in HR/FB
- 4th in Pull%
- 12th in Hard%
Some of the stats aren’t all that different from a year ago. LD% is the same, GB% is three spots lower, and IFFB% is only two spots lower. The main ones that had significant differences were HR/FB (8 spots higher), Pull% (16 spots higher), and Hard% (12 spots higher).
Thus, the Royals directionally are not hitting the ball all that differently. They are just pulling less and hitting the ball softer overall with runners in scoring position. Should those pull and hard-hit rates swing in a positive direction, it’s likely that those RISP numbers (BABIP, especially) could trend back closer to those 2024 marks.
What’s the Difference for Royals Hitters Individually in RISP Situations?
When examining the results for Royals hitters individually with runners in scoring position, the metrics are unflattering, to put it kindly.
Only two Royals have RISP wRC+ marks over 100: Bobby Witt Jr. and Nick Loftin. A full breakdown can be seen below, as organized by RISP wRC+.
India and Maikel Garcia have respectable marks of 94 and 99, respectively. After that, however, it’s a significant drop off after them, as Cavan Biggio has the fifth-best RISP wRC+ at 69.
The most glaring ones who have struggled this year are MJ Melendez, Michael Massey, Salvador Perez, and Vinnie Pasquantino, who were all major contributors to the Royals’ playoff squad in 2024.
MJ had a -60 wRC+ with runners in scoring position, which contributed somewhat to his demotion to Omaha this year. Massey has a 13 mark, amplified by a 20.3% K rate and paltry 0.088 ISO. Salvy and Vinnie are the most disappointing, however, as they have RISP wRC+ marks of 58 and 34, respectively. Vinnie’s low wRC+ is particularly surprising, especially considering his reputation as a run-producer in the Royals lineup.
Let’s examine how the Royals performed individually in RISP situations last year, using the same categories as a baseline.
Notice who the top three hitters in RISP wRC+ rankings are: Bobby (208), Salvy (157), and Vinnie (152) in that order. At numbers four and five? Hunter Renfroe (142), whom Royals fans were celebrating with stupid memes when he got designated for assignment, and Nelson Velazquez (101), who was designated for assignment at the end of Spring Training and released from his Minor League contract a couple of weeks ago.
The Royals also had four players with RISP wRC+ marks between 88 and 100: Garcia, Tommy Pham, Melendez, Adam Fraizer, and Dairon Blanco. This year, the Royals have ZERO players that are within that range, much to our chagrin.
It’s also interesting to see how wildly the RISP trends can swing from one year to the next.
Massey wasn’t great in RISP situations last year, as evidenced by his 86 wRC+. However, that was still 73 points higher than his RISP wRC+ this year, and his RISP ISO of .156 was 68 points higher than his mark this season. The second baseman’s hitting with runners in scoring position last year wasn’t always consistent. That said, he made more contact and his walk rate was 4.9% higher, and his K rate was 1.6% lower as well.
The difference from 2024 and 2025 is even more extreme with MJ: his wRC+ was 151 points better last year (not a typo), and his ISO was 286 points higher as well. Surprisingly, his RISP ISO was the second-best mark on the team behind Witt’s. Even though 2025 has been a disaster at the plate, MJ was known for clutch home runs in 2024.
It wasn’t as if the Royals’ RISP success was with players who aren’t on the club this year. Instead, it’s the core players not coming through that everyone expected to continue performing at the plate back in Spring Training.
What Can We Expect From the Royals This Year In RISP Situations?
The Royals lost the first game of their weekend series to the Athletics 6-4, their fourth-straight loss on this homestand (select facepalm GIF of choice). However, even though the Royals’ offense struggled with consistency, they did go 2-for-5 with runners in scoring position and stranded three fewer runners than the A’s.
Salvy was one player who showed some life with the bat with ducks on the pond on Friday night, driving in a run in the first inning on a single to left field (which scored Maikel).
Thus, I think there could be some positive regression with runners in scoring position coming for the Royals for the remainder of the season, and it’s possible that tonight’s performance could be a step in that direction (even if it resulted in a loss).
First, the batted-ball data for the Royals in RISP situations demonstrates that the Royals’ top hitters could be due for a turnaround, especially ones like Witt, Salvy, and Vinnie, who all have underperformed with runners in scoring position this season.
Here’s what the RISP batted-ball data looks like for the 12 qualified hitters (10 or more plate appearances).
Bobby is the one to pay the most attention to out of this group, as he seems to be the most snake-bitten, based on RISP batted-ball metrics.
Witt leads the team in hard-hit rate and ranks third in FB%. Conversely, he ranks eighth in LD% and ninth in Pull%. He is hitting the ball hard and putting it in the air, but he’s not getting out ahead enough to do productive damage. I’m not sure if it’s a ball recognition issue, a physical limitation, or a mental block (he’s pressing and that’s slowing down his reaction). Or it could be a combination of all three (though the video below makes a good case that it’s a mechanical issue).
Regardless, the sooner Witt can pull the ball more, the sooner his production could tick up in RISP situations.
Of course, hitting in RISP situations is always a tricky thing to project from a fan’s perspective. Numerous articles and extensive research have been conducted on the topic. Like many things, there isn’t any conclusive evidence that hitters can “turn it on” or they can be “coached up” in RISP situations (which makes the whole firing of Alec Zumwalt a fruitless endeavor at the end of the day).
One article that researches the topic fairly well is a Fangraphs Community piece by Edward Sutelan from 2014. The piece was called “Taking a Closer Look at Hitting with Runners in Scoring Position.”
A significant amount of outstanding research was conducted by Edward, particularly from 2002 to 2013, which was the timeframe of his research sample size for this topic. However, this main takeaway seems to accurately summarize his piece, as well as illustrate the key to hitting with runners in scoring position.
“So a case could be made that the strength of a team’s offense overall does dictate how that same team hits with runners in scoring position. While by no means is it an overwhelmingly strong coefficient of determination in any of the cases, in most cases the strength of an offense determines at least 50% of hitting with runners in scoring position which is good enough to at the very least say that better offensive teams are more likely to hit better with runners in scoring position than weak offensive teams.”
Essentially, based on Sutelan’s research, a good hitting team in RISP situations tends to be a good offense overall. A team can’t be a mediocre or poor overall hitting team and good in RISP situations (and vice versa).
Thus, Royals fans have to ask themselves these essential questions to understand the club’s RISP problems this year fully:
Are the Royals simply not a good offense, and the RISP struggles are just a reflection of their overall struggles due to a flawed roster construction?
Are the hitters we thought to be franchise cornerstones just complementary guys who may be expendable in the next year or two? (Mostly thinking about Massey, Vinnie, and Salvy).
And is Bobby regressing to what he typically is as a player after a crazy, and perhaps unsustainable, offensive output in 2024?
We are 70 games into the 2025 season, which means that there are 92 remaining. There’s still a lot of baseball left, but the window of competitiveness is slowly shrinking, even more so with each Royals loss.
I think by the 81-game mark, Royals fans will have an idea of what the answers to those three questions will be.
Unfortunately, my gut feeling is that we won’t be satisfied with the answers to those questions and how they will impact our playoff hopes this season.
Photo Credit: Scott Kane/AP Photo
In my time observing hitters, approach at the plate vs pitcher’s approach to the hitter are important. In the case of Bobby Witt, Jr. the pitcher approaches him more gingerly after his MVP runner-up season. By the same token, With may be trying to earn his salary. If you take a moneyball approach to hitting, your lesser hitters yield more value in a quality at bat. The high quality hitter must produce to reward for his salary. For us, the key is for the bottom five hitters to grind out their ABs until they get hot . Thus, forcing the pitcher to not waste piches trying to finesse the meat of the order. Wet he objective is to impede a “quality start” by the opponent. If he gets pulled before completing the sixth inning, it’s a partial win. If he fails the other Quality Start markers, then it’s a win for us. The time to load up on talent was the off-season. There is one potential option as free agent (J.D. Martinez) that we could try this year, but nobody signed him I have to assume these GMs know someting we fans don’t. But a league minimum incentive laden contract might be mutually beneficial.
For sure. I think we have too many free swingers in general so ones who could grind out at bats would help. Canha seems to have that profile, but pitchers are challenging him more due to his lack of power. If he can get into a few, maybe that changes. I’m not sure I’m confident in Rave or anyone else to demonstrate that approach, unfortunately.
JD Martinez is an interesting one and I’m surprised he hasn’t been signed either. I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s “unofficially” retired after not signing with teams on his wish list (similar to Austin Riley, who turned down a deal from the Royals because it wasn’t 3 million). If he’s in shape and willing to agree to such a deal, I would be open to that because we need pro hitters in this group.