The Royals have lost six straight games to the Yankees since the 2024 postseason. Their last win against the Yankees was on October 7th in the ALDS when they beat New York in the Bronx 4-2 to even their series 1-1.
Since that game two victory, the Royals lost two straight at home in the ALDS (which clinched the series for the Yankees), were swept in April in the Bronx, and lost the first game of their three-game homestand on Monday night by eight runs.
The Royals also lost two of three at Kauffman Stadium last June to the Bronx Bombers. The only win came in the series finale and was thanks to Maikel Garcia hitting a walk-off double that plated two runs against Yankees’ closer Clay Holmes in the bottom of the ninth.
The Yankees have the Royals’ number right now, and tonight’s thrashing didn’t exactly build a lot of optimism about the upcoming two games. It’s not out of the realm of possibility for the Royals to get swept at home, which could not only keep them winless against the Yankees in 2025 but could also further sink their playoff aspirations.
Right now, the Royals have a -17 run differential, which gives them an xW-L record of 31-36. That isn’t precisely the run differential profile of a team that can make the postseason, let alone compete in it.
In addition to a sixth-straight loss, Tuesday’s loss piqued all kinds of concerns about this Royals team, especially the pitching staff.
The Royals pitchers have been a strength of this club and have carried them to a 34-33 record through 67 games. Going into this game, they ranked 6th in pitcher fWAR with an 8.6 mark, according to Fangraphs. However, Kansas City gave up 10 runs to New York on Tuesday, uncharacteristic of a team that’s been known for preventing runs this season.
Let’s take a look at those pitching concerns and a glimpse of how the offense performed in the Royals’ series-opening defeat.
Cameron Has Worst Start of Year (But There Were Silver Linings)
Things didn’t start smoothly for Royals starter Noah Cameron in the first inning.
After walking Trent Grisham on four pitches, Aaron Judge launched one of the longest and hardest-hit home runs Royals fans may have ever seen at Kauffman Stadium.
I have attended many Royals baseball games, especially since 2021, when I became a season ticket holder. In all the games I have attended, I have never seen a hitter hit a home run that landed on top of the Royals Hall of Fame.
Look how Judge’s home run ball doesn’t even completely show on the distance chart via Savant.
That’s how you know Judge’s home run was an absolute tank.
Cameron settled in for two innings before he ran into trouble in the fourth. After giving up back-to-back singles to Jasson Dominguez and DJ LeMahieu with two outs, Austin Wells ended up following four balls off before hitting a home run on the ninth pitch of the at-bat, a changeup.
Here’s how Cameron’s pitch description chart looked against Wells in that particular plate appearance, which resulted in three Yankee runs.
Cameron certainly battled against Wells. However, he served up that changeup in the zone, and Wells, one of the game’s best power-hitting catchers, absolutely demolished it over the right-field wall (just above the reach of Jac Caglianone).
Overall, Cameron threw 102 pitches and went 5.2 innings with six runs allowed on seven hits and one walk. He did strike out six batters and generated 13 whiffs, his second-highest total in that category of the season, as highlighted by Royals Data Dugout.
Even though the stat line isn’t impressive, Cameron’s stuff profiled well on Tuesday night against the Yankees, as seen below via TJ Stats.
Cameron’s overall TJ Stuff+ was 101, and four of his five offerings sported 100+ TJ Stuff+ marks. He also had a zone rate of 52%, a chase rate of 34.7%, and a whiff rate of 26%, which are surprising marks for an outing that included six runs allowed. The lefty did a good job of bouncing back after Judge’s mammoth home run, especially against Judge himself. Cameron struck out Judge in the AL MVP’s subsequent two plate appearances after Judge’s home run.
It wasn’t Cameron’s best outing. That said, his low walk number (he didn’t walk anyone after walking Grisham) and high number of whiffs and strikeouts demonstrate that the 25-year-old is making the proper adjustments with each start at the Major League level.
One concern was that he did give up a lot of hard contact, as evidenced by a .462 overall xwOBACON. His four-seamer was hit especially hard, as illustrated by the .914 xwOBACON. However, two of his three pitches had xwOBACON in the .100 range (slider and cutter), his changeup only had a .261 xwOBCON, and he didn’t give up any contact on his curveball at all.
From now on, it will be interesting to see what Cameron does with his four-seamer, which had a usage of 23.5% and TJ Stuff+ of 90. The rest of Cameron’s arsenal, stuff-wise, has been impressive, especially tonight.
Conversely, his questionable four-seam stuff may hold him back from truly being a top-of-the-rotation ace both now and in the long term.
Regression Comes for Clarke (Could It Be Coming for Other Relievers?)
It was a nightmare outing for Taylor Clarke on Tuesday night.
Called on by manager Matt Quatraro to close things out in the sixth, the 32-year-old righty gave up four runs on five hits and one walk on 35 pitches and 0.1 innings of work. The brutal outing raised Clarke’s ERA from 1.29 to 3.77 and WHIP from 0.43 to 0.84.
Surprisingly, Clarke’s data didn’t profile poorly, according to TJ Stats. Instead, he struggled to generate chase and whiffs against Yankees hitters in his relief outing.
Clarke’s overall TJ Stuff+ was 105, and he had three pitches with TJ Stuff+ marks over 100 (including his changeup, which had a 114 mark). He also flooded the strike zone with a 62.9% zone rate. That said, his overall chase rate was only 7.7%, his whiff rate was 5.9%, and his xwOBACON was 0.450.
Based on those last three metrics, Clarke wasn’t fooling Yankees hitters on Tuesday night. Furthermore, his pitch zone charts (both types and descriptions) demonstrated Clarke’s struggles with command, as he either threw balls too low out of the zone or right in the middle.
The Yankees are a disciplined team at the plate. According to Fangraphs, their 25.1% O-Swing rate is the best in baseball. Clarke is a pitcher who relies heavily on chase, especially with his slider and changeup, to succeed. Unfortunately for the Royals, the Yankees’ hitters’ patience won out on Tuesday against Clarke.
While Clarke has been a fun story in 2025, regression was inevitable for him soon. It also may be coming for Daniel Lynch IV, though the Royals lefty skated out of danger against New York.
In one inning of work, Lynch allowed one hit and one walk. However, he struck out two, which helped him keep runs off the board in his outing. That said, the stuff didn’t look great on a TJ Stats end.
None of Lynch’s pitches had a TJ Stuff+ in the 100 range (he had a 97 overall mark). He also had a sub-50% zone rate, a sub-20% chase rate, and a .635 xWOBACON. He did generate a 40% whiff rate, but that was primarily due to his slider, which had a 66.7% whiff (and a 40% chase).
The Royals’ 28-year-old lefty has a 14.4% K rate to a 13.6% walk rate, which isn’t an impressive or encouraging ratio. Thus, it’s not surprising his xERA is 4.01, nearly two runs higher than his actual ERA (2.10).
The regression bug hit Clarke on Tuesday. It’s possible that the same trend could be coming for Lynch soon, which could result in Angel Zerpa getting more outings in higher-leverage situations (Lynch is currently ahead of Zerpa in that category, according to Fangraphs).
A Decent Amount of Hits for Royals Offense (But Few Runs)
The Royals struggled to generate much against Max Fried, who allowed only two runs on six hits in seven innings of work. He only had four strikeouts, but he did an excellent job minimizing hard contact from the Royals’ bats all evening long.
Fried’s Stuff was okay, but not impressive. He only had two pitches (curveball and sweeper) that had TJ stuff+ marks over 100 and only two (four-seamer and sinker) that generated whiff rates over 25%. However, Fried only gave up an xwOBACON of .312, and he generated a decent amount of chase with a 31% mark.
The 31-year-old New York lefty worked efficiently, which made all the difference against an over-eager Royals lineup.
And yet, the Royals weren’t completely dominated. They still collected nine hits (though they only had a hard-hit rate of 19.9%). Salvador Perez had two hits (both had xBA marks under .100), and Jonathan India hit his third homer of the year and first one at Kauffman Stadium as a member of the Royals.
Unfortunately, it was a far too similar story for the Royals’ offense on Tuesday night, even with such a large deficit.
The Royals made plenty of contact and strung together base hits, but they couldn’t do it when it counted. Kansas City went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position, and they stranded nine runners on base.
Interestingly enough, the Royals failed to drop base hits in the right field corner despite hitting a fair share of them in that direction. That was the inverse of the Yankees, as seen in their respective spray charts.
The Yankees were able to take advantage of the right field line and gaps, which was only amplified due to Cags’ inexperience in the outfield and Salvy’s lack of athleticism at first base. One has to wonder what the Yankees would have done had Vinnie Pasquantino been at first or if a better fielder was in right.
Nonetheless, the Yankees came through in RISP situations (6-for-16) while the Royals didn’t. According to Fangraphs, going into today, the Royals were tied for 30th with the Rockies in RISP wRC+ (60).
Considering the Royals scored two runs and the Rockies scored five against the Giants, it’s likely that Kansas City solely holds that spot tomorrow.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/AP
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