The Royals and Cardinals didn’t play on Wednesday night. Storms from Kansas City last night carried over to the eastern side of Missouri, and it was determined that conditions wouldn’t be good or safe enough to play. A split doubleheader is scheduled for Thursday at Busch Stadium.
Even though it was a bummer to see the Royals not play on Wednesday evening, it was nice to bask in the glow of last night’s 10-7 Royals win against their I-70 rival.
Wednesday’s win marked the fourth time this season that the Royals scored 10 or more runs (Milwaukee, Baltimore, and Chicago were the other three instances). Four Royals hitters had multiple hits, including Bobby Witt Jr., who hit his seventh home run of the season.
There was plenty of pre-game hype for the MLB debut of Jac Caglianone, the Royals’ 1st pick and sixth overall selection in the 2024 MLB Draft. Unfortunately, Cags went hitless in five at-bats on Tuesday night. That said, he made plenty of noise at Busch Stadium in his at-bats, as evidenced by his first at-bat, a line drive out to Cardinals centerfielder Victor Scott II.
Even though the Royals’ top prospect went 0-for-5, it didn’t seem to matter.
The Kansas City lineup, especially at the top of the batting order, looked rejuvenated on Tuesday night. Not only did they collect 10 runs on 13 hits, but they also came back from a five-run deficit, highlighted by a six-run inning in the top of the 5th and a two-run inning in the top of the 6th.
Of course, it’s only one game.
The Royals still have two more against the Cardinals in this series, and they could easily hit the skids and score one run in those games combined, much like they did in the past weekend against the Tigers. While there is certainly talent to compete, especially with the arrival of Cags, this offense has still been complicated to depend on, especially for extended periods.
Thus, will the Royals’ hitters soon hit a positive stretch? Or will Kansas City regress back to their infuriating ways, failing to do much with runners on base?
Let’s take a look at three players and an important metric from last night’s game or a recent stretch of games that should help Royals fans feel optimistic about this lineup with Cags now in Kansas City.
Cags’ 97.3 MPH Average Exit Velocity
Even though Cags didn’t get a hit, he didn’t strike out and put the ball in play in all five of his at-bats. He also hit the ball hard in four of his five plate appearances, as demonstrated in his exit velocity data below via Savant.
Cags had three batted balls with xBA marks of .330 or higher (his first, second, and fifth at-bats). Even though four were groundouts, the exit velocity he showed on those batted balls was encouraging. One has to wonder what a couple of those batted-ball outs would’ve turned into had the Royals been playing a team with worse outfield defense.
(The Cardinals rank third in outfield OAA; the White Sox, their next series, rank 26th in outfield OAA, via Savant.)
Furthermore, Cags showed exceptional bat speed with three of his batted balls sporting bat speeds over 81 MPH. For context, the average bat speed is just above 71 MPH. It’s not surprising that after one game, Cags’ bat speed (76.6 MPH) would rank in the upper percentiles of the league if he qualified. His average bat speed is higher than every Royals hitter with at least one swing, with the second-highest mark (John Rave) being 1.9 MPH slower than Cags.
Let’s look at how the Royals’ hitters this season break down in three bat-tracking metrics (average bat speed, fast-swing rate, and squared-up rate) via Savant.
There likely will be some regression from Cags as he gets more plate appearances at the MLB level (it’s unlikely that he will maintain a squared-up percentage of 57.1%). If he keeps that elite bat speed, though, he will continue to sustain substantial exit velocity numbers.
Interestingly enough, while much was made about Cags’ chase rate in college and the Minors, he didn’t produce a single whiff on any of his swings on Tuesday. His strong contact ability was demonstrated in his pitch results zone chart via Savant.
Once Cags hones his swing selection a bit, more positive results will likely follow at the plate (he certainly was aggressive on Tuesday, not surprising for a MLB debut). When looking at his radial chart from Tuesday’s game and in Omaha, Cags was still hitting the ball just as hard, but just not elevating it as much.
Once things click, Cags will provide upside as a hitter that will boost this lineup overall. Hopefully, things will start clicking tomorrow in the Royals’ doubleheader against the Cardinals to end the I-70 season series.
Witt’s 12.4% Barrel Rate
For the Royals’ offense to fully hum like they did last year, they need Witt to start tapping into his power more consistently.
On a Statcast end, it appears like Witt is producing similarly at the plate to his MVP campaign in 2024. That can be seen in his 2025 TJ Stats Summary below.
Witt’s average EV is 0.3 MPH higher than last year, his LA Sweet-Spot percentage is 2.4% higher, and his hard-hit rate is 0.2% higher. These improvements are encouraging, especially since I was worried about a recent slump not too long ago.
The primary negative difference for Bobby this year has been his barrel rate, which has declined by 1.9% compared to last season.
Granted, in his last four games, Bobby has two home runs. Thus, his barrel rate was experiencing a much worse stretch this season, which led to an even greater barrel gap in 2024.
Here’s a look at his rolling barrel rate chart via TJ Stats, as organized by every 25 batted balls. Notice between the 160th and 180 BIP marks how far Bobby had dropped in barrel rate until the sudden spike after his recent four-game stretch.
Witt has seen his barrel rate drop below the 10th percentile on two separate occasions (also the 80th- 100th BIE mark). For an MVP candidate who has such a significant impact on the lineup and the team’s run production, he must minimize those occurrences.
Based on his radial charts from this season and last via Savant, he seems like he has the potential to increase those barrels and power production, especially since his launching of the ball has improved when he’s gotten base hits this year.
(Scroll left for 2024; scroll right for 2025).
Notice how Witt has fewer base hits below that zero-degree angle this season compared to a year ago. That probably explains why Witt has a 30-point gap in wOBA and xwOBA this season. Last year, his wOBA (.410) was three points higher than his xwOBA (.407).
The more Bobby can get his barrel rate back on track, the better his overall results will be. This is true even if the batted-ball luck won’t be on his side as much this year compared to last (though that may be a trend across the league, as Eno Sarris points out with batted-ball “drag” trends on Twitter).
Royals fans may be focusing on Cags right now. However, Witt’s performance on Tuesday showed that we shouldn’t overlook or discount his production, especially in terms of hitting the ball well. If he’s heating up in that category, that could mean positive signs for the Royals’ lineup in June and beyond.
India’s 36.4% Squared-Up Percentage
It’s been a weird first season for India in Kansas City.
He started the season hot on Opening Weekend, but he ended up regressing mightily in the first whole month of play. In April, the 28-year-old former Red hit .186 with a .541 OPS in 101 plate appearances. That weak performance at the plate, along with woeful defense at third base and left field, drew the ire of many Royals fans who expected him to be a solution at the top of the batting order this season.
May was a much better month for India.
In 105 plate appearances, he hit .266 with a .694 OPS. The power was still not there (.351 SLG), but it was certainly better than what he showed in April (.244). Furthermore, he also demonstrated excellent walk and strikeout metrics as well as encouraging LA Sweet-Spot percentage data via TJ Stats.
The hard-hit and barrel metrics remain subpar for India. However, his xwOBA is 43 points higher than his actual wOBA (.292). Add that with a solid Z-Contact rate (87.1%) and low chase (19.6 O-Swing%) and whiff (19.3%) rates, and Royals fans should be encouraged that the productive form he showed in Cincinnati for four seasons may be on the way.
One sign that hints at a surge is his squared-up rate.
According to Savant bat tracking data, India is posting a 36.4% squared-up rate, which ranks in the 82nd percentile. That is not just a career-best for him in that category (once bat tracking data became available in 2023), but it’s also 5.7% better than his mark a season ago. India has also maintained this improvement in squaring up the ball despite slight declines in average bat speed (0.3 MPH) and fast-swing rate (4.6%).
Squared up rate is “how much exit velocity was obtained compared to the maximum possible exit velocity available, given the speed of the swing and pitch”, according to Savant. The higher the squared up percentage, the better the chances of batters collecting base hits. That bodes well for India and his outlook this summer, starting in June (he collected three hits on Tuesday).
It is interesting to see India’s radial hit chart this year in Kansas City and how it compares to what he did a season ago in Cincinnati.
(Scroll left for 2024; scroll right for 2025).
In terms of singles, India is pretty much doing this season what he did a year ago in terms of exit velocity and elevation. He is also collecting more doubles, with his two-baggers this year sharing the same profile as ones from 2024 based on launch angle and exit velocity.
However, he hasn’t been able to get those home runs like he did a season ago. This is despite a near identical blast rate in 2025 (12.5%) compared to 2024 (12.4%).
I am curious if the change in home ballpark is having an effect. It does seem like he is hitting plenty of balls at an ideal launch angle this year, but it’s not producing home runs this season, especially at Kauffman. That can be seen in his field-out radial and spray charts via Savant.
Look at the number of near-miss field outs at the warning track for India.
Based on these charts and data, India is not achieving a consistent exit velocity on batted balls, despite proficiency in producing an ideal launch angle on batted balls. That exit velocity is necessary to generate the much-needed barrels (4.7% barrel rate) that tend to result in home runs.
Will the improved squared-up rate start to turn things around in the homer and barrels category? Will he begin to see better exit velocity now that he’s seeing the ball well and generating contact again like he did for four years with the Reds?
India has been up and down, hitting-wise, as a Royal, much to the fanbase’s dismay. That said, his squared-up data, along with Tuesday’s performance, demonstrates that he is heading in the right direction, which will help people forget about his rough April and start in Kansas City.
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