The Royals are experiencing another cold spell on the offensive end, a common theme in 2025.
According to Fangraphs, Kansas City ranks 26th in OBP and OPS, 27th in runs scored, and 30th in home runs hit. They are 1-4 in their last five games and will be looking to avoid a third-straight loss against the Reds at home on Wednesday evening. Unfortunately, it won’t be an easy task, as the Royals face Cincinnati ace Hunter Greene tonight.
If the Royals want to have a chance against Greene and the Reds at the K today, they will need a big performance from Bobby Witt Jr., who’s in the midst of a slump since the Cardinals series a couple of weekends ago.
Overall, this year’s numbers have been solid for Witt, although not as spectacular as they were a year ago, when he finished second in the AL MVP voting.
In 245 plate appearances, Witt is hitting .289 with an .828 OPS, and he has five home runs, scored 29 runs, and stolen 20 bases. He leads all Royals hitters with a 2.8 fWAR, and his Statcast metrics have been excellent, as illustrated in his TJ Stats summary.
However, as mentioned before, Witt has been experiencing a cold stretch since May 17th. According to Fangraphs‘ game logs, he is slashing .171/.186/.244 in his last 43 plate appearances. Over that stretch, his wRC+ is 8, and he is striking out 20.9% of the time, while walking only 2.3% of the time.
As I mentioned on BlueSky yesterday, this slump has deflated his once gaudy overall hitting numbers.
Over this 43 plate appearance sample, Witt is posting a wOBA of .188. While his overall wOBA this year ranks in the 80th percentile, his wOBA rolling chart shows that this mark was well above the 90th percentile for most of the year before the slump.
Unfortunately for Witt and the Royals, during this slump, his wOBA has plummeted to the bottom 10th percentile, a sharp and surprising decline.
The Royals have been trying to find various solutions on the hitting end until they can either a) pull off a trade or b) promote Jac Caglianone, who’s been scorching in Omaha since his promotion to Triple-A (though he did go 0-for-5 with three strikeouts in his Storm Chasers home debut). They have designated Hunter Renfroe for assignment, optioned Cavan Biggio, and promoted Nick Loftin and John Rave.
That said, a productive and MVP-caliber Bobby will have the most significant impact on the Royals’ lineup and chances in the AL Playoff race.
Thus, let’s examine what has been happening overall with Witt this year and determine if this slump is just a temporary setback or a more significant cause for concern for the remainder of the season.
Looking at Bobby Witt’s Process+ And How It Fares to 2024
When evaluating hitting, I like to look at a player’s Process+ chart, a tool available through the Pitcher List Pro app.
Created by Pitcher List’s Kyle Bland, Process+ can be defined as follows (as illustrated in an article about the metrics by Pitcher List’s Nate Schwartz):
With Process+, you can see all facets of a hitter conjoined into one—not a results-based stat, but an underlying one, showing how well one’s process is….
Consider it per-pitch “xwRC+”: who is creating the most runs with the aspects of hitting they have the most control over on each pitch? These aspects include swing decisions, contact ability, and exit velocity/launch angle, all relative to the quality of the pitches they’ve faced.
Thus, let’s take a look at what Bobby’s Process+ rolling chart has looked like this year via Pitcher List.
As demonstrated in the rolling chart above, Witt has been well above average in power, above average in contact ability, and slightly below average in decision-making. In terms of specific numbers tied to those trends, Witt has a 119 Process+, a 113 Power+, a 109 Contact Ability+, and 95 Decision Value+. These numbers can be found in the PLV Hitter sheet available to PL Pro subscribers.
His Process+ trends aren’t that much different from a season ago, as Royals fans can see in his 2024 Process+ chart below.
The decision-making was still subpar last year, but he demonstrated solid contact ability and excellent power in his AL MVP runner-up campaign last season. Regarding his specific PLV averages in each category, Witt produced a 139 Process+, 115 Contact Ability+, 128 Power+, and 90 Decision Value+ in 2024.
Thus, he has seen a 20-point decline in Process+, as well as regressions in Power+ (15 points) and Contact Ability (six points). However, his decision-making has been five points better this year, which is an encouraging sign regarding Witt’s plate discipline this season (which will help him snap out of this slump).
Diving Into Bobby’s Power+ And Barrels
Power still has been Bobby’s strongest tool this year on a Process+ end. Even though his Power+ tool is down, it remains four points higher than his Contact Ability+ and 18 points higher than his Decision Value+.
The significant difference this year is that his Power+ tool has been much more stable, unlike in 2024 when it experienced much greater peaks at various points in the season.
Witt’s Power+ tool has hovered between the 90th and 75th percentiles this year, with a slight exception around May 8th. Conversely, last year, Bobbt had four separate occasions where his Power+ exceeded the 90th percentile benchmark, including a stretch in June when it touched the 150 Power+ mark, which is insane.
I have discussed Bobby’s performance extensively through the PLV lens. How does this compare or correlate with more widely known Statcast metrics that evaluate power, such as barrel rate?
We have observed barrel rate trends that have fluctuated more wildly than his Power+ metrics, as shown in the rolling barrel rate chart below via TJ Stats.
Bobby started the year off well in terms of barreling the ball, as he touched the 90th percentile early on in the season. However, around his 80th ball in play (BIP), he dipped below average and touched the 25th percentile. At the 120th BIP mark, he jumped back up to the 90th percentile, but he has seen a decline since the 150th BIP mark, which correlates with his recent slump.
He’s still barreling the ball well overall, as his 10.7% rate ranks in the 70th percentile. However, it’s not quite as elite as it was a season ago, when it was 14.3% and ranked in the 92nd percentile.
His barrel rate zone charts also demonstrate some interesting trends, especially when it comes to zones that have seen significant decline from a season ago.
He has barreled balls more in the upper zones, especially zone 1 (22% increase) and zone 3 (14% increase). However, he has seen declines in balls in the middle zones.
In zones four, five, and six (the middle three), his barrel rate has declined nine, 13, and eight percentage points from the previous season. It appears that on those pitches in the middle of the zone, especially inside and outside edges, Witt is not barreling the ball as frequently as he did in 2024.
An example of this can be seen in this clip compilation from balls in zone 4 from 2024 and 2025.
In 2024, Bobby barreled a 95.5 MPH fastball from Brenan Hanifee that went 384 feet with an exit velocity. Against a Pablo Lopez 86.5 MPH changeup this past weekend, Witt popped up to right field. His batted ball only traveled 282 feet with an exit velocity of 85.1 MPH.
That shows that Bobby is not recognizing balls quickly enough or not physically getting around with the bat soon enough to barrel them in those zones like he did a season ago. How he progresses with either of those two areas could determine what kind of power outlook Bobby will have for the rest of the season.
A Tale of Two Decision Value Charts for Bobby
When it comes to decision-making, Witt has always been a free-swinging hitter. According to Statcast, his career swing rate is 51.2% and his career chase rate is 32.4%. Those rates are four percent higher than the league average in each respective category.
However, in terms of Decision Value+, even though his overall Decision Value+ is better this year, he hasn’t seen the positive spikes in this tool like he did a season ago.
The Decision Value+ comparison is illustrated in the image comparison below. (Scroll left for 2024; right for 2025 Decision Value+).
In 2025, he’s been consistently around the 25th percentile this year. He’s been slightly above 95 (near average), but he’s never been beyond that mark.
Last year, his Decision Value+ hovered between 100 and 110 from May to June and then returned to that mark from the middle of September to the end of the year. However, he also experienced some poor stretches in the Decision Value+, with periods from July to September where he hovered around or fell below the 80 mark, which is the 10th percentile. That explains why his 2024 overall Decision Value+ mark lags behind his 2025 mark.
A significant reason why Witt’s overall Decision Value+ is better (though there are fewer positive spikes) than it was a year ago can be attributed to his improved In-Zone Decision Value+.
According to his IZ Decision Value+ rolling charts, he has been either at or above the 110 mark for the entire 2025 season. That wasn’t the case a year ago, when he saw his IZ Decision Value+ chart trend below average from June to July, as seen in the images below.
Last year, his zDV+ (In-Zone Decision Value+) was 108, which is still above league average. This year? That mark is 120, a 12-point improvement and an even more encouraging sign that Witt’s decision-making is maturing on those hittable pitches in the strike zone.
On the other hand, his Out-of-Zone Decision Value+ has not been as encouraging.
When examining his OZ Decision Value+ charts this year, he has trended around the 83 mark since May 1st, which is in the bottom 10th percentile. His oDV+ is 88, which ranks near the bottom of the league.
Conversely, his oDV+ was also 88 last year and saw declines, reaching the 70 mark (which is below the 10th percentile). However, he did see peaks where he touched league average between May and June and at the end of the season, as seen below.
The lows for Witt in oDV+ weren’t significant, but at least he saw some periods where he was near average. That hasn’t been the case so far this year.
An issue that could be correlating with Witt’s oDV+ struggles is his high O-Swing% of 32.5%, which ranks in the 25th percentile. He has particularly seen a spike since his 450th out-of-zone pitch, as his O-Swing% has touched the 40% mark, not an encouraging sign.
In addition to the increase in chases out of the strike zone, Witt’s whiff rates have also increased recently. He has been up and down all season when it comes to whiffs. However, he has been on a recent stretch since his 400th swing, during which his whiff rate has risen to over 30%, as shown in the rolling chart below.
That isn’t exactly what the Royals or fans want to see, especially from a hitter in the lineup who is so crucial to their offensive fortunes.
Then again, chasing may be part of his game and isn’t necessarily a sign that Witt is due for major regression. Star hitters such as Jackson Merrill, Bryce Harper, Corbin Carroll, and CJ Abrams also have high chase rates, and they’ve been productive hitters in key spots in the batting order for their respective teams.
That said, Witt reigning things down a bit with the chases could help lessen the whiffs. Those two positive adjustments could help him get back on track with the bat, as was the case a couple of weeks ago.
Squaring Up the Ball and Ideal Attack Angle Issues
In terms of where Witt is producing in the strike zone, it seems that he’s doing better against pitches up in the zone, but has regressed in the middle and lower parts of the zone. That is evident in his batter run value zone charts from 2024 and 2025 via Savant.
Seeing sharp declines in five of the nine zones in the strike zone got me thinking: Is something up with Witt’s bat speed and ability to square the ball that’s lessening his overall batter run value in 2025?
I then decided to review his bat tracking metrics via Savant to see if they showed any significant changes.
The average bat speed is down, as his fast swing rate, but not by significant margins. His average bat speed is 0.4 MPH slower, and his fast-swing rate is 1.5% down from 2024. Conversely, his average swing length is down by 0.1 feet, which should be a good thing with Witt’s natural bat speed. A shorter swing length could mean a quicker path to contact.
That said, when looking at his swing length zone chart, he’s been generally shorter on pitches inside, but he’s seen his swing lengthen a bit on pitches on the outside edges.
In zones 3, 6, and 12, he has observed an increase in swing length of 0.2 feet, respectively.
One has to wonder if this swing length difference has led not only to power and barrel issues, but also to his ability to reach the sweet spot, which is a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees.
Historically, Witt has demonstrated inconsistency with his Launch Angle Sweet Spot percentage, as shown in his career rolling Sweet Spot percentage chart via Savant. Unsurprisingly, this trend has carried over into this season.
Like much of Witt’s hitting profile, he has experienced some tremendous lows in Sweet Spot percentage, as well as some significant highs, with the latter occurring recently, despite his current slump. Thus, it seems like the inconsistency in swing length isn’t affecting his Sweet Spot ability too much during this slump.
It could be having an effect, though, on his ideal attack angle percentage, which is down 5.2% this season and is 7.6% below the MLB average.
According to Savant, a ball is hit at an “Ideal Attack Angle,” per Statcast, when it is hit with a 5-20° Attack Angle. That leads to not only productive contact but also correlates with base hits, which the Royals’ offense desperately needs. Despite the solid bat speed and tools, Witt has historically struggled to produce average Ideal Attack Angle rates.
In addition to these attack angle issues, he is also intercepting the ball deeper in the zone than ideal. The MLB average of intercept points vs. the front of the plate is 2.9 inches toward the pitcher. Witt’s intercept point in this category? It is 0.7 inches this year and has never exceeded 1.6 inches in his career (as of 2023).
Royals fans can view the intercept point breakdown, as well as other information regarding his depth in the box and distance off the plate, in the table below.
Witt making contact deeper in the zone could explain why he hits the ball more to the gaps and doesn’t pull much. Notice how his spray charts look from the past two years and not many dots on the left field sign, especially this season.
When Bobby hits line drives, this approach doesn’t hurt him too much. However, when he hits fly balls, even if they are hit hard, this approach can lead to long flyouts, especially in Kauffman Stadium’s spacious confines.
Here’s an example of that happening against Boston and pitcher Hunter Dobbins at the K.
Witt just may be who he is, and thinking he can suddenly be league average in improving his interception point ability overnight is overly wishful thinking.
That said, if he can creep that intercept point just a little bit more to the front of the plate (0.3 ft, which was his average point last year), it’s possible that Witt can pull more batted balls. That can lead to more base hits, especially of the home run variety, regardless of what stadium he is playing in.
The issue is whether that’s a reaction issue or a mechanical issue. My guess is the former, especially since Witt has such a fast swing. Either way, it’s something Alec Zumwalt and the Royals’ hitting coaching staff likely have to discuss and work on with Bobby to get him back to where he was earlier this season.
Share Final Thoughts on Bobby
Even though Bobby has been struggling in his last 43 plate appearances, he remains a talented hitter with exceptional hit tools. This is illustrated in his 90th Percentile Exit Velocity rolling chart, where his average in this category is 108.0 MPH, ranking in the 88th percentile.
Furthermore, according to Fangraphs splits, Witt typically turns it on even more in the hotter summer months. In May, his career wRC+ is 116. In June and July? Those marks are 183 and 149, respectively.
A further breakdown of those career monthly splits is shown in the table below.
There certainly are some things to be concerned about with Bobby amid this tough stretch at the plate. Can he get around to the ball in front of the plate more? Can he slightly improve his out-of-zone decision-making? Can he get his barrel rates back to where they were a year ago? Those are crucial questions that still need to be answered and could determine what kind of season Witt will have by the end of the year.
That said, I think Witt is a talented enough hitter that with a minor adjustment in any of the areas listed above, he will return to his MVP-caliber self.
Let’s hope it’s sooner rather than later, especially if the Royals want to stay in the hunt in the AL Central and Wild Card races.
Photo Credit: Chris O’Meara/AP
[…] As of Saturday, according to Fangraphs, the Royals’ offense ranks 26th in OPS, 28th in runs scored, and 30th in home runs. In terms of the latter, Bobby Witt Jr. added to that season total on Friday with his sixth home run of the season (which hopefully can help him snap out of his recent slump). […]