The Royals lost the opening game of their homestand on a rainy Monday. I was one of 18,002 in attendance at Kauffman Stadium on Memorial Day, which felt even less crowded with so many huddled in the concourse or sitting in sections that were fortunate to have overhangs (which was the case for me and my wife in the upper decks).
The Reds hurt the Royals early and often on the hitting end in their 7-4 victory.
Cincinnati collected 11 hits, scored six runs, and drew three walks against Royals starter Michael Lorenzen. He gave the Reds a 4-0 lead in the third inning and allowed a home run to Tyler Stephenson in the fifth inning, which gave Cincinnati a 6-0 advantage.
Safe to say, it was Lorenzen’s most deflating start of the season.
However, with a bullpen game on Tuesday, manager Matt Quatraro let Lorenzen wear this bad performance a bit longer than usual to save the Royals’ relievers.
The 33-year-old righty went five innings and threw 102 pitches, which was commendable considering how lackluster things looked for him and the Royals in the third. Unfortunately, he struggled to find the strike zone consistently (46.1% zone rate), and he didn’t generate many chases (21.8% chase rate) or whiffs (17.8% whiff rate) either.
Even though the Reds had 11 hits against Lorenzen, the xwOBACON wasn’t too bad overall at 0.330. He had sub-.300 marks on four pitches: four-seamer, changeup, curveball, and cutter. Considering the sheer number of base hits Lorenzen gave up, one would think that number would have been higher. Thus, on a contact end, some unfortunate batted-ball luck seemed to be involved with Lorenzen against Cincinnati on Monday.
Conversely, Lorenzen wasn’t sharp with his command, as evidenced by his pitch type and pitch description charts via Savant.
As Royals fans can see, Lorenzen was missing up and arm-side with his four-seamer and down and glove-side with his curveball. His slider and changeup were more in the zone, and they tended to have better results for him on Monday, as demonstrated by their separate zone type and description charts via Savant.
It wasn’t a horrific start for Lorenzen. He righted this ship after the third inning, except for a leadoff walk in the fifth inning to Gavin Lux and the home run to Stephenson in the next at-bat (never forget what Denny Matthews says about leadoff walks). His ability to grind out five innings still demonstrates Lorenzen’s veteran presence in this pitching staff.
That said, the six-run outing increased his season-long ERA to 4.33 and WHIP to 1.40 in 62.1 IP. The control from this outing shouldn’t be worrisome, as the rainy conditions (which were worst early on in the game) affected his ability to locate his offerings (especially regarding the four-seamer and curve).
Nonetheless, his next few outings will be worth watching. He may be competing with Noah Cameron for that fifth spot in the rotation when Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo return off the IL, especially if Lorenzen continues to regress in subsequent starts.
Salvy Goes Yard, But Issues With His Offense Remain
As I wrote in Monday’s post, Vinnie Pasquantino looks more locked in at the plate, which is an encouraging sign for this Royals lineup.
On Monday, he collected three hits, improving his average to .258 and OPS to .711 for the season. His K rate is still high for his standards (18.3%), and his walk rate would be a career-low if the season ended today (5.4%). Regardless of this regression in plate discipline, Vinnie looks like the hitter who helped carry this team to a postseason berth in 2024.
Conversely, it’s still hard to determine the outlook for Salvador Perez at the plate for the remainder of the season.
On one end, Salvy took a positive step in his last two plate appearances against the Reds on Monday.
With the Royals’ offense looking dead for six innings, Salvy took advantage of a mistake from Reds starter Nick Martinez with Vinnie on first base and launched a two-run home run that got Kansas City on the board and brought some life to the Kauffman faithful.
Salvy also was hit by an Emilio Pagan pitch that got him on base and put him in scoring position in the bottom of the ninth (unfortunately, Maikel Garcia, Drew Waters, and Michael Massey couldn’t come through).
However, he also had two groundouts against Martinez, with his second one in the fourth inning, with Jonathan India on third base, leading to an inning-ending double play. Both groundballs were hit with lackluster exit velocities, which is disappointing for a hitter in the cleanup spot (and with runners on base to boot).
Furthermore, decision-making continues to be an issue for Salvy at the dish this season, and Monday was no different.
When looking at his pitch type and description zone charts from Monday’s loss against Cincinnati, Salvy did damage on those “mistakes” in the zone (look at his home run ball). Unfortunately, he was also too aggressive, chasing pitches out of the zone and early in the count, which is a lose-lose for a hitting approach.
Salvy did lay off a couple of cutters low and away. However, he chased badly on a changeup that spiked the dirt and got jammed inside sinkers. It would be nice for Salvy to work the count a little more, especially when runners are on base. Still, it was encouraging to see Salvy lay off three of four pitches that need to be spat on, which hasn’t always been the case this year.
At 35 years old, it seems like Salvy is finally getting hit hard by Father Time.
He’s only hitting .226 with a .622 OPS, and even after his home run today, his slugging is 99 points lower than his mark a season ago. His bat speed is also down from a year ago, with his average bat speed down 0.4 MPH and his fast-swing rate down to 27.9%, a 5.4% decline from 2024. Thus, it’s not a surprise he’s squaring up the ball only 30.1% of the time, a 3.5% regression.
Then again, looking at his overall Statcast metrics, there’s more good than bad. That should prompt Royals fans to keep their faith, even though Salvy is not the most graceful or athletic player at the plate or on the basepaths.
The growth is coming more slowly than Royals fans (or he and the Royals) want. However, I think positive regression is coming soon, even though I believe Salvy’s days as a legitimate cleanup hitter are probably behind him (though that spot makes sense for now because I don’t know who else you put in that spot).
Singer Makes His Return on Tuesday
If there’s one thing baseball people can count on, it’s that the Royals and Royals fans will always greet a former player warmly in their return to the K. That was proven on Monday before the game, as Brady Singer was recognized and received an ovation from the fans.
For nearly two months, the Singer-India trade has been a mixed bag for both sides.
In 209 plate appearances, India has a slash of .227/.325/.298 with a .623 OPS. He has demonstrated solid plate discipline, but his power metrics and defense this season have left some to be desired from Royals fans (though he hit the ball hard today, and his sweet spot percentage has remained encouraging).
While India’s debut for the Royals has not been great, the same could be said for Singer and his first season in Cincinnati.
Singer has a 5-3 record in 10 starts this season. However, in 51.2 innings, his ERA is 4.88, his xERA is 4.64, and his WHIP is 1.35. Those are all considerably worse marks than what he produced in his final season in Kansas City (3.71 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 179.2 IP), except xERA (4.65). The latter metric may be why JJ Picollo and the Royals were willing to part with him this offseason.
Regarding his pitch arsenal and stuff data, Singer utilized his four-seamer early in the season. However, that usage has tailed off as the season progressed, as demonstrated by a 10.9% usage. That has correlated with a regression in his overall performance.
Singer has utilized a cutter this year with the Reds, which he throws 11.9% of the time. However, it only has a zone rate of 40.6%, a grade of 42, a whiff rate of 21.3%, and is allowing a xwOBACON of 0.513, the worst mark of any of his offerings. It’s been a nice wrinkle for his repertoire, but it hasn’t produced any real fruit on an individual pitch basis.
Here’s a look at that cutter from Singer on March 31st against the Rangers’ Marcus Semien, which averages 87.9 MPH.
Overall, Singer’s been what Royals fans saw from 2020 to 2024.
His overall TJ Stuff+ is below average at 96, his zone rate is mediocre at 49.9%, and his chase (22.4%), whiff (21.5%), and xwOBACON (0.411) have been paltry. Even though Singer had some good seasons in Kansas City, his departure this past offseason opened the rotation up for Kris Bubic and Cameron, who have not only been better this season but have demonstrated more long-term upside.
That said, it also wouldn’t be surprising to see Singer in his return to Kansas City perform well, especially since he has a career 3.92 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.30 K/BB ratio in 381.1 career innings at Kauffman Stadium, according to Baseball-Reference splits.
Singer will most likely throw strikes and challenge Royals hitters on Tuesday. Hopefully, Royals hitters are ready to go and aggressive and can find some gaps against Singer and the Reds’ defense (which wasn’t the case for six innings on Monday).
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images