After three straight series losses to the Red Sox (home), Astros (road), and Cardinals, the Royals took the series against the Giants in San Francisco this week. Not only did the series win help stop the bleeding after a rough nine-game stretch, but it was also nice payback after the Giants swept the Royals at Kauffman Stadium at the end of last season.
The series win in San Francisco improved the Royals’ record to 28-23, which has them tied for second in the AL Central with the Minnesota Twins. The Twins hold a slight advantage in winning percentage, with a 0.551 mark (two points higher than the Royals). However, it’s still too early in the season to weigh that too heavily.
Nonetheless, even though we’re not even in June, this upcoming weekend trip to Minneapolis for Kansas City feels significant. Even though the Royals took three of four from the Twins in Kauffman in early April, this team looks a lot different than the one that visited Kansas City at the beginning of the season.
The Twins are fresh off a 13-game win streak that got them back in the thick of the Central division race. They split a two-game series against the Guardians earlier this week, with one game to be made up on September 20th. Thus, the Twins aren’t as hot as they were a week ago, but they still are a surging team hosting the Royals in an environment where Kansas City struggled a season ago (they went 2-5 in Target Field in 2024).
Thus, how can the Royals avoid the Target Field struggles from a season ago and take another series on this road trip to help them jump the Twins in the Central? In this post, I will look at three keys to this weekend’s series for the Royals in Minneapolis.
Can the Royals Get to Pablo Lopez?
The Royals have not had the best success against Lopez, the Twins’ ace
Lopez is 5-1 with a 2.23 ERA and 51 strikeouts in seven career appearances against Kansas City. Last season, he beat the Royals in both starts and produced a 2.08 ERA, 12 strikeouts, and no walks in 13 innings.
The Royals do miss Joe Ryan in this series, which is nice, as Ryan got the lone win for Minnesota at Kauffman Stadium in a 4-0 shutout win for the Twins. However, Lopez won’t be an easy challenge for the Royals, especially with Kansas City ranking 25th in OPS, 26th in runs scored, and 30th in home runs.
Beyond Lopez’s performance against the Royals, he’s bounced back after a slightly subpar season for his standards in 2024.
In 32 starts and 185.1 IP last season, the Venezuelan-born pitcher produced a 4.08 ERA, 3.65 FIP, and 3.2 fWAR. While those are all solid metrics, they were down from the 3.66 ERA, 3.33 FIP, and 4.6 fWAR he produced in 2023.
This season, Lopez has made eight starts and pitched 45 innings. He sports a 2.40 ERA, 2.43 FIP, and 1.5 fWAR in that sample. He’s improved his strikeout rate from 25.6% last year to 27.7% this season and his K-BB% from 20.3% to 22.6%. Thus, Lopez has been the most standout starter in a Twins rotation, ranking 5th in baseball in starter ERA.
His prowess was displayed in his last start, May 17th, in Milwaukee. Against the Brewers, he struck out six in six scoreless innings, and the Twins won 7-0.
Improvement on Lopez’s changeup and curveball has led to success this season for the 29-year-old righty, as documented in this Twins Daily piece shared a couple of weeks ago.
When looking at his Statcast metrics via TJ Stats, Lopez’s repertoire has been pretty impressive, as demonstrated by a 100 overall TJ Stuff+ mark.
As talked about in the article, Lopez’s changeup and curveball have been his best offerings this year. They have 59 and 57 grades, respectively, and they are also generating whiff rates of 29.4% and 52.9%.
Lopez’s main blemish this season is that he has given up hard contact on both offerings this year.
His changeup has given up a 0.435 xwOBACON, and his curveball allowed a 1.298 xwOBACON. Those are the two worst marks of his five pitches in that category, and they rank in the bottom percentiles of the league.
Thus, the Royals must take advantage of any mistakes in the zone thrown by Lopez on Friday night, especially with his curveball and changeup, which are prone to productive contact.
Can the Royals Bullpen Keep It Up?
After a slow start, the Royals’ bullpen has become one of the better units in the league.
According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen ranks 13th in FIP, 6th in ERA, and 13th in fWAR. However, in May, they ranked 6th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, and 11th in FIP. Thus, losing Sam Long (IL) and Chris Stratton (DFA) has positively affected the bullpen, allowing other arms like Steven Cruz, Evan Sisk, Taylor Clarke, and Jonathan Bowlan to flourish in the middle innings.
The bullpen’s effectiveness was displayed in Wednesday’s 8-4 win, as six Royals relievers contributed to the four-run victory. That kind of performance shows the Royals’ relief depth, which is helpful not only with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo on the IL but in general, especially with the Royals’ inconsistent offense this season.
For different reasons, two relievers who particularly stick out to me are Taylor Clarke and Angel Zerpa.
Clarke has been a surprising addition to the Royals’ bullpen in 2025.
Granted, fans are familiar with Clarke, as he pitched in the Royals’ bullpen in 2022 and 2023. However, he struggled with a 5.95 ERA and -0.2 fWAR in 58 appearances and 59 IP in 2023, which eventually led to him being traded that offseason to the Brewers.
Clarke didn’t pitch with the Brewers last year because he dealt with an injury and only pitched in Triple-A while he recovered. Milwaukee expectedly non-tendered him, and the Royals pounced on him in free agency and gave him a Minor League contract.
With injuries besetting Long and some other possible arms on the 40-man roster (Alec Marsh, Kyle Wright, and James McArthur), the Royals opted for Clarke, who was posting a 4.40 ERA and 4.25 FIP in 14.1 IP with the Storm Chasers this season. Even though the Triple-A stats weren’t eye-popping, Clarke has held his own in his return to the big leagues in 2025.
In six outings and 7.1 IP, Clarke has not allowed a run and sports a FIP of 1.99. He isn’t striking out a tremendous number of batters (16% strikeout rate), but he hasn’t allowed a walk either and is generating a groundball rate of 47.6%.
His stuff and Statcast metrics have also been impressive, as seen in his TJ Stats summary card this season.
Clarke has a 104 TJ Stuff+ overall, with his slider (108) and changeup (111) being his best pitches on a quality end. He isn’t generating a ton of whiffs (19.6%), but he isn’t allowing hard contact (0.353 xwOBACON), and he also is doing a good job throwing strikes (51.4% zone rate). Clarke’s performance is a big reason why the Royals were able to part ways with Stratton.
While Clarke is succeeding in the Royals’ bullpen, Zerpa is struggling, which is disappointing after his promising 2024 campaign.
In 19 appearances and 18.1 IP, the Venezuelan lefty has a 5.89 ERA, 5.48 FIP, and -0.3 fWAR. His K rate has dipped from 20.5% in 2024 to 15.3% in 2025, and his K-BB% has also gone from 12.6% to 9.4%. Hitters have also seen a two percent increase in barrel rate and a 1.3% increase in hard-hit rate against Zerpa this season.
Lastly, the stuff metrics vis TJ Stuff+ haven’t been great, which hints that Zerpa may not see an upswing in positive regression anytime soon.
Zerpa not only sports a subpar 96 TJ Stuff+ but also has two pitches with sub-90 TJ Stuff+ marks (four-seamer and changeup). He is still generating strikes (54.8% zone rate), but he isn’t generating much chase (20.4%) or whiff (10.5%).
I bring up Zerpa because Long will be starting a rehab stint this weekend in Omaha.
If Long returns to Omaha fully healthy and humming, that could result in Zerpa being optioned back to Triple-A, especially if Zerpa has a rough upcoming week, starting with this series in Minnesota.
Will the Royals Mix Things Up Roster-Wise?
The Royals’ offense is coming off an eight-run performance against the Giants on Wednesday, so spirits may be a bit high, especially after Salvador Perez‘s three-hit performance.
Furthermore, in May, the Royals’ hitters have performed much better, an encouraging sign.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals’ batters rank 13th in fWAR, 14th in wOBA, and 15th in wRC+. Here’s how the Royals break down individually this month as well, as organized by wRC+.
Vinnie Pasquantino (118), Kyle Isbel (175), Bobby Witt Jr. (136), and Maikel Garcia (178) have had solid months on a wRC+ end. Jonathan India (99), Drew Waters (86), and Michael Massey (62) have been below average, but they have shown signs of life this month after cold starts.
Cavan Biggio and Hunter Renfroe, who are posting 54 and 51 wRC+ marks, respectively, are the main concerns with this group. They haven’t hit well, and their lack of plate appearances this month (26 and 34) makes one wonder if their times in Kansas City may end soon.
The Statcast and plate discipline metrics for both hitters via TJ Stats haven’t been encouraging, hurting their chances to remain on the roster.
With the off day for travel, it would make sense for the Royals to make a roster move.
One possibility is Nick Loftin, who was not in the lineup on Thursday for the Storm Chasers’ finale against Salt Lake City.
Granted, it could just be a scheduled day off, typical in Triple-A, where the focus is on development, not necessarily wins and losses. That said, Loftin has had a solid year in Omaha, and he doesn’t have much to prove in Triple-A at this time, based on what he’s doing on a Statcast metrics end.
Loftin doesn’t offer much power (5.0% barrel rate), but he brings a disciplined and high-contact approach at the plate, something the Royals need at the bottom of the batting order in front of Isbel (who has thrived in the nine hole). After all, his walk rate is 9.2% higher than his strikeout rate. That’s impressive, regardless of level.
If the Royals call up Loftin, the question will be whether Kansas City will designate Biggio or Renfroe for assignment.
Even though Biggio would be a more even trade with Loftin (since Loftin is more of an infielder), I could also see Loftin replace Renfroe, who has played less and less, especially against right-handed starting pitchers.
It seems like the Royals are focusing on India playing only second base or DH after a rough go this year at third base and left field. Thus, Matt Quatraro may opt for Loftin for that utility role (which may include some time in left field) against lefties, while Biggio could satisfy that responsibility against right-handers.
That is, of course, they promote Loftin.
Unfortunately, Royals fans won’t know until Friday before first pitch.
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