There was a different anticipation for this weekend’s 2025 edition of the I-70 Series at Kauffman Stadium. The Royals were celebrating the anniversaries of the 1985 and 2015 World Series, with major ceremonies taking place before first pitch on Friday and Saturday.
Furthermore, they were going into this weekend’s series against the Cardinals with a better record (25-20) than St. Louis (24-20). That has been a rare feat for the Royals in the Interleague era.
Unfortunately, Friday was another repeat of what Royals fans have been used to in this Show-Me State rivalry. Kansas City lost 10-3 in absolutely deflating fashion, amplified by a four-run inning in the top of the sixth that essentially clinched the game for the visiting Cardinals.
The Royals are 25-21 and now sit in fourth place in the AL Central after the Twins won their 12th game in a row. After a seven-run defeat on Friday, their run differential returns negative (-1). The Royals’ xW-L is 23-23, better than only the Guardians (who have a 20-24 xW-L) and the White Sox (17-28 xW-L).
It’s safe to say that concerns among Royals fans are at a high again. The luster of their 16 wins in 18 games has quickly faded, especially after losing two straight series to Boston (at home) and Houston (on the road), and the first game of this heated interstate rivalry series.
The Royals can certainly turn the momentum of this series around, especially with two games remaining on Saturday and Sunday. That said, there are some questions likely lingering in the minds of Royals fans that have to be answered soon if Kansas City not only wants to salvage this series, but get back on track, especially with a tough road trip looming next week (San Francisco and Minnesota)
Let’s look at three things that Royals fans may be asking themselves after tonight’s significant loss to the Cardinals, and whether or not those questions can/will be answered soon.
Will the Royals Be Without Ragans and Lugo for a Significant Time?
Cole Ragans started on Friday, and it was another “mediocre” outing for his standards.
In five innings of work, Ragans struck out seven and didn’t walk anyone. However, he gave up four runs on five hits and left the game after facing one batter in the fifth due to left groin tightness.
The results certainly weren’t the best for Ragans, as his ERA is now 4.53 for the season. That is not only 1.39 points higher than his mark last year, but it’s also his worst mark since coming to Kansas City. He posted a 4.95 ERA in 40 IP with the Rangers in 2022 and a 5.92 ERA in 24.1 IP in 2023 with Texas before being traded to Kansas City that summer.
According to reports, the Royals came out to talk with Ragans (and eventually took him out of the game) because of a sudden drop in velocity. His pitch velocity chart via Savant showcased that sharp velocity regression, especially with his fastball.
The Royals have struggled deciding what to do with Ragans’ groin injury. They don’t want to see their Cy Young candidate hit the IL so early in the year.
That said, this is the fifth-straight start where he’s failed to go beyond five innings (and this includes starts against the White Sox and Rockies). He also posted a 4.80 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 15 innings of work in May, up from his 4.21 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 25.2 IP in April. That is not an encouraging sign, especially since Ragans is considered the “ace” of this rotation.
If that’s not enough bad news, the Royals also announced before Friday’s game that Seth Lugo would miss his next start (Saturday) due to a finger injury. Noah Cameron is expected to replace Lugo in the rotation tomorrow and make his Kauffman Stadium debut (his MLB debut came on the road in Tampa Bay).
It is a relief that Lugo is only missing one start, especially given Ragans’ injury issues, which may result in the lefty moving to the IL tomorrow. Conversely, it sounded like Ragans’ groin issue would only be a “one-start” deal at the end of April. Instead, Ragans demonstrated mixed results in three starts this month and still doesn’t seem 100 percent on the mound. The Royals can’t afford that, especially with the inconsistent hitting to begin the season.
If Lugo’s finger issues linger and he also needs to go on the IL, who do the Royals call on to replace him in the rotation, especially if Cameron is up for Ragans?
Chandler Champlain and Luinder Avila could be options, though their TJ Stats data illustrate that they have demonstrated mixed results in Omaha this season.
The Royals could opt for 45-year-old lefty Rich Hill, whom they just signed on a Minor League deal this week.
Unfortunately, not only is Hill old, but he also has little recent experience. In 2024, he pitched only 3.2 innings with the Red Sox, and the TJ Stuff+ metrics and results weren’t exactly promising either.
Who knows how long Ragans and Lugo will be out for the Royals? If they’re out for an extended period on the IL, the Royals’ pitching depth will be challenged, especially with Alec Marsh and Kyle Wright not likely back anytime soon (if at all this season, based on their recent setbacks).
What is Wrong With Salvy?
Salvador Perez did have an RBI single in the bottom of the eighth that drove in the Royals’ third and final run of the game. Unfortunately, it was too little, too late, especially with the Royals down so big at that point in the game. Furthermore, it was Salvy’s only hit of the game.
After a strong start in March (.313 average and .853 OPS in 17 PA), Salvy has regressed each month in 2025.
In April, he hit .222 with a .621 OPS in 106 plate appearances. He’s hitting .192 in May with a .468 OPS in 55 plate appearances. His .595 OPS is 191 points lower than a year ago, and he only has two home runs, with none coming in May. Last season, he had nine home runs in April and May.
One on end, he’s still hitting the ball hard and his xwOBA suggests that some regression could be coming soon (though his free-swinging ways certainly don’t help in that endeavor).
That said, his rolling wOBA chart has showcased an absolute freefall for Salvy since the 120-plate appearance mark this season. The decline illustrates that what he’s experiencing is not simply bad luck or an awful “slump.”
Salvy’s rolling wOBA chart ranks in the 26th percentile and below the 20th percentile in his last 30 or so plate appearances. The 35-year-old Royals captain had missed a few games due to a hip injury. Since he suffered that hip issue, it appears he hasn’t been the same player, especially at the plate. The wOBA rolling chart data strongly suggests that possibility, though Salvy and the Royals deny it.
Regardless, Royals fans are not seeing much good from Salvy, and he’s been a drain on Kansas City’s lineup, especially in the cleanup spot. Something needs to happen quickly, not just for Salvy’s sake but for the Royals as a team, especially if they want to salvage the season in a tough AL Central division.
What can the Royals do to help Salvy channel his old self?
Should JJ Picollo put him on the IL for a 10-day stint? Should manager Matt Quatraro drop him in the batting order? Should Quatraro make him a permanent DH and first baseman until at least the All-Star Break?
These suggestions may sound extreme, especially considering Salvy’s importance to this team.
However, with a sub-.600 OPS in 178 plate appearances, the Royals and Salvy need to find solutions, regardless of how outlandish they may seem initially.
Can the Royals Save Face Against Their Eastern Missouri Rival?
There’s no question that the Cardinals-Royals rivalry means more to Kansas City folks than St. Louis denizens. After all, the Cardinals view the Chicago Cubs as their “true” rival, especially since the Cardinals and Cubs have a much longer history in the National League and play in the same division.
Nonetheless, the Royals-Cardinals rivalry still has some juice, especially when the Cardinals visit Kauffman Stadium every year. In a 2020 “rivalry” rankings post, I rated the Cardinals as Royals fans’ most hated rival, above division opponents like the Guardians, Twins, and White Sox.
Below is my justification for that top “rival” ranking over five years ago (which I think remains true today).
St. Louis and Kansas City also have their own beefs beyond baseball. St. Louis looks down on KC as a “cowtown”. KC thinks St. Louis is too snobby for its own good, especially considering Kansas City as a city is actually more populated than St. Louis now by almost 162,000 people (I know, the Metro comparisons are a different story between the two). As someone who is not from around here, it is fascinating to see the difference in cultural dynamics between St. Louis and KC folks, as they are eerily similar at times, but so pronounced in their disdain for one another. It only adds more to this rivalry when they meet in Kauffman, and half the stadium is in Cardinals red, and the other half is in Royals blue, with the latter grumbling under their breath in response to the obnoxious cheeriness of Cardinals Nation.
And that’s what makes this rivalry number one. It’s not about what happens or has happened on the field. It’s not so much about the Royals-Cardinals, but KC-St. Louis. It is almost a fierce, family rivalry between cousins where the two can’t stand one another when they are around, and baseball is the one place where both parties can express their disdain for one another without any serious recourse.
Royals fans hate Cardinals fans mostly because the Cardinals have always viewed the Royals as the “little brother” in the baseball world. The Royals are finally turning things around in the win column. In 2024, they won more games last season (86) than the Cardinals (83). And yet, St. Louis fans still exude an attitude that says, “That’s nice, but try being over .500 two seasons in a row.”
Even though the Royals and Cardinals are more even than ever, St. Louis still holds itself differently, especially when they arrive and play baseball in Kansas City.
On Friday night, that was on full display, especially with the Cardinals putting the game away essentially by the top of the sixth.
A season goes beyond one series, especially in an Interleague one that doesn’t ultimately hold much value (even if they both made the postseason, they wouldn’t see each other until the World Series, possibly). However, with the 1985 and 2015 World Series celebrations and an STM Photo Day going on this weekend, fans will be coming and filling up the ballpark. A good series could help spark more excitement among the Royals’ fan base. A poor series could make it a long and sluggish summer at Kauffman, even if the team remains competitive.
The Royals failed their first test on Friday night.
Thankfully, they have two more chances on Saturday and Sunday to redeem themselves.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images