Hopes were high with Jonathan India when they acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds this offseason in exchange for pitcher Brady Singer.
After struggling to get much production in the leadoff spot from Maikel Garcia and Michael Massey in 2024, the Royals acquired India, who hit .248 with a .749 OPS and collected 15 home runs, 13 stolen bases in 637 plate appearances with the Reds as their primary leadoff hitter a season ago. The thought with India was that the 28-year-old former Gator product would not just provide stability at the leadoff spot, but could provide some versatility in the field due to his athleticism (even though he had not played beyond second base before this season).
Unfortunately, things haven’t gone as planned with India through the first 42 games of the season.
In 168 plate appearances, India is putting up a slash of .228/.327/.303 with a .630 OPS. He only has one home run and no stolen bases in 39 games played, and his wOBA is .291, which would be a career-low if the season ended today.
As a result of this slow start, many Royals fans are questioning India’s outlook in Kansas City and whether Garcia should replace India in the leadoff spot (though Garcia has gone through his own mini-slump since the start of the Boston series).
In this post, I will look at India’s start in 2025, some reasons why Royals fans should stay hopeful, and an area of concern with the 28-year-old that could determine his long-term future in Kansas City beyond this season.
India’s Plate Discipline Remains Solid (And Batted-Ball Metrics Improving)
When looking at India’s profile, there’s much to be encouraged about, especially regarding his plate discipline.
His 12.7% walk rate is a point higher than a year ago, and his strikeout rate is 15.7%. That latter mark is not just a 3.9% improvement from a year ago, but also a five percent improvement on his career strikeout rate.
Notice in his career rolling strikeout rate chart via Savant how below average he’s been in the K rate category, not just this year but also compared to previous seasons in Cincinnati.
Looking at his other plate discipline metrics via his TJ Stats summary card, he’s also done an exceptional job making contact at the plate and limiting whiffs and chases out of the strike zone.
India’s whiff rate and O-Swing (swings outside the strike zone) rates are both sub-20%, which is stellar. He does swing a lot at 39.5%, but he’s been exceptional at making contact at the plate, especially on pitches inside the strike zone, as evidenced by his 87.3% Z-Contact rate.
Regarding his effectiveness against pitch types, he’s been excellent in making contact against all varieties this season.
He’s only whiffing 16% against fastballs, 20.9% against breaking balls, and 25.8% against offspeed pitches. The higher whiff rates against breaking and offspeed pitches haven’t been alarming, as he has wOBACON marks of .411 and 0.356 on those pitches, respectively. Surprisingly, he’s been ineffective against fastballs (.225 wOBACON) despite low whiff and O-Swing rates (14.6 O-Swing%).
In terms of his hard-hit ability, he’s been a bit subpar in that category this year.
His barrel rate is 5.9% and his hard-hit rate is 41.5%, which rank him in the 28th and 30th percentiles, respectively. However, his launch-angle sweet-spot percentage has been encouraging. He has an LA Sweet-Spot percentage of 37.3%, which ranks him in the 66th percentile.
He started the season slow in launch-angle sweet-spot percentage. However, he’s seen a surge recently in his rolling LA Sweet-Spot percentage chart, which could signify a power surge coming for India as we enter the warmer weather months.
Therefore, it’s not surprising that India’s xwOBA is 38 points higher than his actual wOBA this season. Furthermore, he’s been a pretty above-average hitter in xwOBA recently via his rolling chart, which isn’t quite the case with his actual wOBA chart (seen in the image comparison below).
With solid plate discipline and improving launch-angle on batted balls, India may be on the cusp of returning to his Cincinnati form by the end of May.
Process+ Data Confirms India’s Solid Hitting Skills
On Monday, India seemed to get on track with three hits in his first four at-bats, which included two RBI.
His Statcast metrics indicate that India has demonstrated strong plate discipline but questionable hard-hit and barrel metrics this season. Regarding Process+, PLV’s hitting skill evaluation tool, India has shown similar trends. His contact and decision-making tools have been excellent this year, but his power tool has left much to be desired, via Process+.
Despite his struggles in the power department, India has remained a slightly above-average hitter on a Process+ end. His overall Process+ trend (the white line) has fluctuated between 110 and 100 for most of the season, except around late April, when it dipped under 100 for a short period.
Here’s what his Process+ chart looked like a season ago with the Reds.
Last season, India started similarly in the power department and then turned it on in July. He remained pretty consistent in decision-making. There was a slight dip in June in contact ability, but he was pretty above-average in that department in 2024.
When it comes to power, let’s examine his rolling Power+ PLV chart from both 2024 and 2025 to get an idea of what could be on the horizon for India.
This season, India’s Power+ is hovering just above the 90 mark, the 25th percentile. Last year, until mid-June, he was around that same mark until seeing a tremendous spike that saw his Power+ hover between the 75th and 90th percentile for most of the summer.
India may be slowly returning to those power points again, which should help him improve his power metrics and overall stat line.
Defense Still A Major Concern With India
On the hitting end, I think India is on track to be the leadoff hitter the Royals envisioned when they acquired him this offseason. The plate discipline is excellent and exactly what they need. The batted-ball profile isn’t great now, but there are signs that improvement is coming (and maybe sooner than we think).
Unfortunately, the biggest issue with India is the defense, which has been bad, to put it mildly.
According to Savant, India sports a fielding run value (FRV) of -4 and an OAA of -5. His OAA ranks in the bottom 1st percentile of the league, which is not encouraging, especially for a player who fields multiple positions.
Here’s a breakdown of how India has fared this year regarding OAA and success rate at 3B and LF, where he’s primarily played defensively.
Third base has been his better position, but not by much. His OAA is one out better at the hot corner than left field, and his success rate is only four percent below estimated. While that isn’t good, it’s still better than his nine percent below estimated success rate in left field.
Savant’s box maps show how India has fared in OAA at different positions in the field, which gives further context and insight into India’s defensive struggles.
At third base, it seems like he’s been much better at making plays toward first base than ones toward the third-base line. That is probably due to his experience at second base (where making plays toward first base is more common). India hasn’t shown many strengths at any starting position in the outfield (notice the lack of red, which signifies high OAA), thus explaining the low success rate and OAA in the outfield this season.
Some have argued that India should return to the second base position. He demonstrated slight progress at the keystone in 2024 (+1 FRV and +1 OAA).
However, he still pales compared to Michael Massey, who’s produced +4 FRV and +7 OAA at the keystone position in the past two years, a significant improvement from his rookie year in 2022 (when he generated a -3 OAA at second base).
The issue with India right now is that he hasn’t been good at any defensive position this year, and his bat isn’t good enough to hold the everyday DH position.
While India’s bat will likely heat up in the summer months, the same cannot be said of his glove. If that remains true, India’s future in Kansas City will be quite hazy, especially since he will be a free agent after next season (i.e., in 2027).
Photo Credit: Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images