The Royals seem back on track after two weeks of good baseball.
They are currently 21-16 (good for third in the AL Central) and have won 13 of their last 15 games. After a 5-1 road trip, the Royals have won the first two games of a four-game set against the White Sox at Kauffman Stadium. That included a wild ending on Tuesday night, which saw the Royals come back to win despite being down by two runs in the bottom of the ninth.
The Kansas City pitching staff has remained solid during this 15-game stretch.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank 7th in pitching fWAR, 4th in ERA, and are tied for 10th in FIP (with Detroit). Cole Ragans has helped the Royals’ rotation remain stellar, as he returned from injury on Monday to throw a five-inning, 11-strikeout gem in a 3-0 victory over the White Sox.
While the pitching has been noteworthy, the bigger key to the Royals’ success has been the offense’s resurgence.
Since April 29th, Kansas City ranks third in offensive fWAR (2.1) and seventh in wRC+ (127). After being in the negative run-differential range for most of April, the Royals now have a +5 run differential, which equates to an xW-L of 19-18, good for third in the AL Central behind the Tigers (24-11) and the Twins (19-17).
One key lineup change over that time was that MJ Melendez was optioned to Omaha, and Drew Waters became a regular in the Royals’ outfield and batting order.
In 23 games and 83 plate appearances, Waters is slahing .273/.325/.416 with a .327 wOBA and 107 wRC+. He also has a home run, a stolen base, eight runs scored, and eight RBI this season, making him a valuable hitter at the bottom of the Royals’ batting order.
After barely playing in 2024 (he only collected 19 plate appearances), the 26-year-old outfielder has received one last chance to show he belongs on a Major League roster. Thankfully, he’s been producing at the plate for the Royals, which has boosted the outfield after slow offensive starts from Melendez and Hunter Renfroe.
That said, is Waters’ performance sustainable? Or will he regress to what Royals fans saw from him back in 2023, when he posted a .296 wOBA and 81 wRC+ in 337 plate appearances?
Let’s examine Waters’s performance at the plate in 2025, whether he can continue, and the outlook and rest-of-the-season projections for him and the other outfielders on the Royals’ roster.
Diving Deeper Into Waters At the Plate
Waters’s surface-level metrics have been great this season, and he’s shown a penchant for coming through in clutch situations.
According to Fangraphs, his WPA is 0.22, and his clutch scores are 0.19, which rank third and first of Royals hitters with five or more plate appearances this season. For context, his WPA in 2023 was -1.13, and his clutch was -0.02.
Thus, Waters has experienced a massive improvement in this area in 2025, with this two-RBI single against Baltimore’s Kyle Gibson being a prime example.
Unfortunately, his Statcast metrics paint a somewhat different picture of Waters’s performance at the plate this season, which can be seen via his TJ Stats Statcast Summary card.
Waters has done a good job of elevating the ball when he makes contact, as demonstrated by his 43.6% LA Sweet-Spot percentage, which ranks in the 94th percentile via Savant. However, his 3.6% barrel rate ranks in the 16th percentile, his 86.4 MPH average exit velocity ranks in the 11th percentile, and his 28.6% hard-hit rate ranks in the 7th percentile. Thus, it’s unsurprising that Waters only has an xwOBA of 0.286, a 36-point difference from his actual wOBA.
Speaking of wOBA, the former Atlanta prospect started the year off slow, but saw a resurgence after his 30th plate appearance. However, he has seen a sharp decline since his 50th plate appearance, with his wOBA hovering between the 50th and 25th percentile in his last 30-40 plate appearances.
Waters still has a wOBA of 0.322, which ranks in the 65th percentile. That said, according to Savant data, his wOBA has begun trending below the league average, which has been typical for Waters throughout his MLB career (though it looks pretty good right now, especially after such a rough start to the season).
Another concerning trend for Waters has been his Process+ rolling chart data from this season. Process+ measures decision-making, contact ability, and power via PLV metrics. While the wOBA data has looked good, especially after a slow start, Waters’ Process+ has told a much different story.
Based on Process+ trends, Waters has been a below-average hitter this season. His lackluster power and contact ability have weighed down his overall Process+ despite average decision-making at the plate.
It’s interesting to see this trend in his Process+, especially since his profile looked quite different in the same chart back in 2023 when he had regular playing time with the Royals.
Two seasons ago, Waters’ contact was horrific and was his worst tool on a Process+ end. Conversely, his power was his most highly rated tool, though it did tail off at the end of the season. The decision-making started poorly, but got better in the last month of the season.
A significant difference for Waters this year is that the hard contact has not been there so far, and he’s seen a bit of decline over the past two years at the Major League level. That is evident in Waters’ career hard-hit rate rolling chart data.
After hitting a hard-hit rate high point of nearly 47.5% after 100 plate appearances, he regressed heavily in his subsequent 125 plate appearances in 2023. He saw a slight bump around the 200 plate appearance mark, but quickly declined around his 250th career plate appearances and hasn’t bounced back since.
When looking at his average exit velocity zone charts from 2023 and 2025, it’s interesting to see which parts of the strike zone Waters is hitting harder this year and which zones have seen some serious regression.
In 2023, Waters was much better at hitting balls down low and in the middle when generating exit velocity. This year, he’s hitting balls thrown on the edges much better, especially in zones 4 and 6. That shows that Waters has a more line-drive approach at the plate and is more open to hitting the ball to the opposite field.
He is also showing some interesting trends on a whiff rate end. His 25.3% K rate and 32.2% whiff rate rank in the 29th and 11th percentile, respectively. He has improved in some areas of the zone regarding swing and missing, as seen below via the whiff rate zone charts from 2023 and 2025.
Waters is whiffing a bit more on the left edges of the plate. However, he is whiffing much less on pitches thrown in the right side of the strike zone. The areas where he’s gotten hurt the most are the waste areas, which have seen significant increases in whiff rates since 2023. Unfortunately, Waters’ 35.1% chase rate ranks in the 13th percentile.
Based on the data, the more Waters chases, the worse his whiff rate will be. Thus, what could prevent Waters from taking the next step as a player could hinge on that chase rate, an area of his game that has dogged him throughout his career ( 30.6% career chase rate).
His swing speed declined slightly from a year ago and could make or break Waters as a hitter in this “whiff” area.
According to Savant, in 2023, Waters had an average swing speed of 73 MPH and an overall fast swing rate of 37.5%. This season, his average swing speed is only 71 MPH, and his fast-swing rate is only 13.4%.
Here’s a look at his swing speed zone charts from 2023 and 2025, which help give Royals fans an idea of his regression in this area.
Waters is still swinging the bat pretty fast on balls in the low waste zone, but he’s lost anywhere from one to six MPH in nearly every other part of the zone. Thus, while Waters may be making more contact on pitches in the zone, his bat speed hinders his power. His slow bat speed up and away also correlates with his high whiff rate in the zone.
It’s an interesting adjustment this year from Waters, who’s trying everything he can to ensure that he can stay up and be a part of the Royals roster this season. However, whether or not this approach will work long-term is to be determined.
What About Melendez and Renfroe?
Manager Matt Quatraro has opted for Waters to be in the outfield over the past couple of weeks, and Renfroe is one player who has lost at-bats.
Honestly, Renfroe’s loss of playing time is entirely justified. In 83 plate appearances, he is slashing .160/.229/.200 with a .429 OPS. He has no home runs, only four RBI, and his Statcast metrics have been pretty discouraging, as illustrated below in his TJ Stats card.
On one hand, Renfroe isn’t swinging and is missing a lot. His 22.3% whiff rate is 9.9% better than Waters’, and his O-Swing% (swings out of the strike zone) is 8.2% better as well. Unfortunately, Renfroe is also struggling to hit the ball productively, as evidenced by his 3.3% barrel rate, 35% hard-hit rate, and 23.3% LA Sweet-Spot rate.
Renfroe’s Process+ has also shown concerning trends, though he has seen some time with above-average trends this season in Process+, unlike Waters.
Like Waters, Renfroe’s power has been pretty lackluster and is the primary factor contributing to his subpar Process+ trend. However, while Waters has shown better decision-making, Renfroe has been much better at making contact this year. He’s been above average in contact ability since April 15th, which is more promising than what Waters has demonstrated this season regarding making contact at the plate.
I am unsure if Renfore or Waters are long-term options, as their profiles are flawed. Melendez may be the one with the most upside, and he has shown better trends in Process+ the last couple of years, especially compared to Waters and Renfroe.
In terms of Process+, Melendez hasn’t always been consistent, and his contact ability last season was pretty subpar from the beginning of the year until the end of June. However, he turned things around in the second half of the season in nearly every category, and his Process+ chart looked a lot like it did in 2023, especially on a power end.
Melendez gives the Royals more power upside and has a history of demonstrating that power upside at the Major League level (even if it isn’t consistent). He also shows excellent batted-ball and hard-hit ability in Omaha, even though the surface-level metrics aren’t encouraging (.176 average and .512 OPS in 55 PA with the Storm Chasers).
On a positive note, Melendez’s 93.3 MPH average EV ranks in the 93rd percentile, his 90th % EV of 108.3 MPH ranks in the 92nd percentile, and his 53.1% hard-hit rate ranks in the 90th percentile. He is also pulling the ball (and flyballs) at a high rate (72.7%), which is what the Royals want to see from Melendez as he works on his swing in Triple-A.
The results don’t matter as much for Melendez in Omaha. It’s more about his process and how his tools develop. Thankfully, those two items are growing nicely with the Storm Chasers, even if it may be a month or more before MJ returns to Kansas City.
What About the Projections for Waters and Other Outfielders?
Fangraphs publishes The Bat X projections for players on their site. Thus, I wanted to look at outfielders and see how current Royals outfielders are competing with Waters for spots in the corner outfield positions.
Here’s the data for a sample of seven Royals outfielders (six on the 40-man roster and one not).
When it came to wRC+, Waters’ 90 mark was tied with Cavan Biggio for the third-best mark of this group. Mark Canha had the best wRC+ projection, but he was 0.1 fWAR behind Waters, which says something about Waters’ other skills (fielding and baserunning).
In terms of power, Melendez is projected to have the best ISO of the group with a 0.179 mark, while Renfroe ranks second with a 0.156 mark. Waters is projected to have a 0.136 ISO, nine points less than Jac Caglianone, who has not played an inning above Double-A ball. That shows Caglianone’s potential, though Royals fans may have to be modest about their expectations with him, based on the Bat projections (though that’s hard to do when he has performances like this below).
Waters’ outlook is around the same ballpark as the other six potential options in the dataset above. He is projected to be a .302 wOBA hitter for the remainder of the year, which isn’t much different than projections of Melendez (.306), Biggio (.303), Cags (.301), or Renfroe (0.299).
Thus, the Royals must ride the “hot” outfield bat when they can and shouldn’t be afraid to switch out Waters if (or perhaps when) the bat cools. Maybe the answer is Renfroe, maybe the answer is Melendez, or maybe it’s Cags (though that may be a July or August solution).
Nonetheless, Waters has been a fun story at the start of the season. However, based on the metrics, he hasn’t solidified his spot for the remainder of the year, let alone long term.
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images
Excellent deep dive!
Thank you so much!
I have been a booster of Waters. All you mention points to him trying to just make contact. His batspeed, the chasing… He is a fish out of water. But, he is having some success. Given his physical tools, he is bound to figure things out. If he hits .273 for the season, Renfroe is history. I expect him to get comfortable with MLB pitching soon and begin to establish some authority at the plate. Power will manifest itsej.
I would be guardedly optimistic as he nears his age 27 season.
Yeah I get that for sure. He’s definitely focusing on making contact and not selling out for power, which is working for him right now. I worry about sustainability, so it will be important for him to chase less (though I agree that him getting more comfortable with MLB pitching is helping). But I agree, if Waters keeps this up, I think it makes it easy for Royals to part ways with Renfroe, which may be happening soon with Renfroe sitting out so much recently.
I always appreciate the analysis
Thank you so much for reading and the comment!
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