We will be rescheduling our Crown Talk podcast recording date for Monday evening, which means the episode will be released on Tuesday instead of Monday. We may make this a permanent thing based on our availability. Sunday has typically been a better recording date for our work schedules, but Tuesday is a more ideal release date. We will keep everyone posted.
I will be going to the game today and then have an event in the evening to attend. Thus, I wanted to get in a quick post before this afternoon’s series finale against the Astros.
Therefore, another edition of the “Jottings” felt necessary, with my focus being on today’s Astros starter Hunter Brown, a couple of peculiar Royals reliever battles, and my Underdog Fantasy “Sunday Slide” draft picks for April 27th.
Can the Royals Catch a Spark Against Houston’s Ace?
It won’t be an easy one, as the Royals will be going against Brown, who’s been Houston’s best pitcher so far this season.
Brown has been the Astros’ best pitcher so far, with a 1.16 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in five starts and 31 innings pitched. That is no easy feat considering the rotation also features Framber Valdez and Hayden Wesneski, both of whom pitched in this series and held the Royals to two runs each (although they still lost).
The 26-year-old has not only been a strikeout and whiff machine, but he’s also done a good job of limiting hard contact, as his TJ Stats card demonstrates.
Not only does Brown have six pitchers, but all his offerings have a grade of 57 or higher (and his TJ Stuff+ is 105 overall). He has also generated a 33.5% chase rate, a 27.2% whiff rate, and is allowing an xwOBACON of 0.355. Thus, the Royals hitters will have their work cut out for them on Sunday afternoon.
The last time Brown pitched in Kansas City, however, it was a bit of a disaster.
On April 11th last season, Brown only went 0.2 IP and allowed 11 hits, nine runs, one walk, and didn’t strike out a single batter. This is what his pitch type and description charts looked like from that outing at Kauffman Stadium.
Brown was either too in the middle of the zone or wildly out of it, which explained why the Royals were able to be so successful against the Astros’ ace. Granted, Brown worked things out after that horrendous outing against Kansas City and ended up posting a 3.49 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in 31 games and 170 IP.
He also had a much better outing in Houston against the Royals on August 29th, as he went 6.2 IP, allowed two hits, two walks, two runs, and struck out four. Here’s what that particular outing looked like on a pitch chart end.
Brown still missed a lot with his fastball in his last outing against the Royals. Even this season, control has been a slight issue, as Brown’s zone rate is a bit lower (50%) for a pitcher who’s been so dominant. A key for the Royals will be for them not to chase too much, especially if Brown is struggling with fastball command.
That said, the Royals have had a more aggressive approach recently, which has produced solid results against Colorado. Finding the right approach against Brown will be key if Kansas City wants to get the sweep. Another 2-0 victory feels unlikely (though not out of the realm of possibility with who the Royals are throwing today).
Do Steven Cruz and Evan Sisk Deserve Longer Looks?
Due to injuries, the Royals have promoted Cruz and Sisk to the big league roster this year. Sisk was recently optioned, as the Royals wanted right-hander Jonathan Bowlan in the bullpen due to Houston’s right-handed-heavy position player roster.
Cruz remains in the bullpen, and he appears to be a mainstay based on his early performance in 2025. In 6.2 IP, he hasn’t allowed a single hit or run, and he’s struck out five while walking three. Cruz isn’t a strikeout artist by any means, but his pitches have solid movement, and his arm angle can give hitters fits, even if Cruz isn’t locating consistently.
Once Hunter Harvey returns, it will be interesting to see if the Royals will keep Cruz or perhaps part ways with Chris Stratton, who’s been less impressive this year with an 8.10 ERA in 10 innings pitched. Here’s how both pitchers compare from a TJ Stats perspective.
Cruz pretty much outperforms Stratton in nearly every category.
Cruz’s tjStuff+ is seven points higher, his zone rate is 1.7% higher, his chase rate is 14.8% better, and his whiff rate is 1.3% better. Plus, Cruz is sporting an xwOBACON of 0.154 while Stratton has a 0.365 mark. The Royals are still paying Stratton $4.5 million this year, but I think JJ Picollo may opt for Cruz, especially if the whiff rate rises with more outings.
Another interesting battle could be between Sisk and Sam Long. The latter is currently on the IL for elbow inflammation, but he’s begun throwing again this weekend. A possible option could be for the Royals to option Bowlan back to Omaha when Long is ready to come off the IL.
That said, based on TJ Stats metrics comparisons between Sisk and Long, the Royals should opt to bring up Sisk instead.
Long has been better when it comes to finding the strike zone, as Long has a 47.2% zone rate while Sisk’s rate is only 36.7%. At the same time, Sisk has done a much better job in terms of inducing more chases and whiffs as well as less productive contact.
A significant difference between the two is the arm angle, as Sisk comes from a more horizontal angle at 12 degrees. Long is more vertical with a 52-degree arm angle. Thus, it’s not surprising that Sisk works more horizontally pitch-wise than his 29-year-old teammate.
Considering the Royals already have two power lefties in Angel Zerpa and Daniel Lynch IV, the more “uncanny” Sisk could be a better change of pace than Long, who’s more similar in pitching style to Zerpa and Lynch.
Kris Bubic Highlights Underdog Sunday Slide Picks
While most people opt for the Champions picks on Underdog Fantasy, I do enjoy their daily bestball drafts. There is less control with picks as it is a snake draft format, but I feel that I have had more success in this style of Daily Fantasy play.
When it comes to picks, I always try to pick at least one Royals player for that day. My pick for the day is Bubic, who is on the bump for the Royals today.
Bubic has been solid this year with a 1.45 ERA, 2.39 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP in 31 innings pitched. One could argue that Bubic has been the Royals’ most effective starter this year. That is surprising given that the rotation also includes Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo, two AL Cy Young finalists from a season ago.
However, Bubic’s TJ Stats summary card illustrates a dominant starting pitcher.
The Astros have a heavier right-handed lineup, but splits-wise, they’ve only been slightly better against left-handed pitchers (88 wRC+) than right-handed pitchers (87 wRC+). Houston has also struggled away from Daikin Park (still want to call it Minute Maid), as they have a 68 wRC+ on the road this season, according to Fangraphs. Thus, Bubic could be due for a big day fantasy-wise, even if he may not get the win (due to Brown being on the bump for Houston).
In terms of hitting, I like Noelvi Marte, who has been a refreshing surprise this season for Cincinnati after missing time due to a PED suspension in the previous season.
In 11 games and 42 plate appearances, he’s hitting .333 with a .439 wOBA. He also has three home runs, 12 RBI, and two stolen bases. Marte has looked comfortable in Coors Field this weekend, as he hit his third bomb of the year on Saturday.
Marte shouldn’t just be an option in DFS formats but also season-long fantasy, whether it’s in dynasty (where he’s likely unavailable) or re-draft leagues.
Photo Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images