The Royals have continued their hot play in this homestand, as they won their fourth-straight game at Kauffman and fifth in a row to improve their record to 13-14.
Kansas City only scored two runs against the visiting Astros on a chilly Friday night. Nonetheless, that was more than enough for Seth Lugo, who threw eight innings of shutout ball in the Royals’ 2-0 victory.
The Royals’ offense is starting to look more settled after a rough start to the 2025 season.
After another two-hit night, Drew Waters is hitting .302 with an .836 OPS. Hunter Renfroe had a hit and a sacrifice fly on Friday night. Lastly, the first four hitters in the Royals lineup all had at least one base hit against Houston in their 2-0 win as well (and that was with Salvador Perez having a night off after a big day on Thursday).
Based on those numbers, one would think that the Royals would have more than two runs in their victory. However, Bobby Witt Jr. was caught stealing (his third of the year), and he was also doubled up on a Vinnie Pasquantino line drive to second baseman Jose Altuve in the bottom of the eighth.
Unfortunately, that wasn’t an “aberration” for Bobby and this Royals team this year. Their baserunning has been surprisingly subpar, based on baserunning metrics via Statcast.
According to Statcast (as of April 26th), the Royals rank 26th in the league in “runner runs,” which measures the overall value of a baserunner, expressed in runs created (or lost) via stealing bases and taking extra bases on the basepaths.
Here’s how the “runner runs” rankings fare overall this season.
| Rank | Nickname | Abbreviation | Year | Runner Runs |
| 1 | Cubs | CHC | 2025 | 5.23 |
| 2 | Mets | NYM | 2025 | 5.14 |
| 3 | D-backs | AZ | 2025 | 3.29 |
| 4 | Tigers | DET | 2025 | 3.09 |
| 5 | Brewers | MIL | 2025 | 2.89 |
| 6 | Twins | MIN | 2025 | 2.68 |
| 7 | Cardinals | STL | 2025 | 2.34 |
| 8 | Giants | SF | 2025 | 2.08 |
| 9 | Red Sox | BOS | 2025 | 1.73 |
| 10 | Rangers | TEX | 2025 | 0.58 |
| 11 | Angels | LAA | 2025 | 0.49 |
| 12 | Braves | ATL | 2025 | 0.29 |
| 13 | Phillies | PHI | 2025 | 0.24 |
| 14 | Rockies | COL | 2025 | 0.00 |
| 15 | Rays | TB | 2025 | -0.29 |
| 16 | Orioles | BAL | 2025 | -0.31 |
| 17 | Blue Jays | TOR | 2025 | -0.66 |
| 18 | Dodgers | LAD | 2025 | -0.68 |
| 19 | Guardians | CLE | 2025 | -0.75 |
| 20 | White Sox | CWS | 2025 | -0.76 |
| 21 | Marlins | MIA | 2025 | -0.78 |
| 22 | Athletics | ATH | 2025 | -0.84 |
| 23 | Astros | HOU | 2025 | -0.89 |
| 24 | Reds | CIN | 2025 | -0.96 |
| 25 | Padres | SD | 2025 | -1.23 |
| 26 | Royals | KC | 2025 | -1.50 |
| 27 | Pirates | PIT | 2025 | -1.85 |
| 28 | Yankees | NYY | 2025 | -1.87 |
| 29 | Nationals | WSH | 2025 | -2.11 |
| 30 | Mariners | SEA | 2025 | -2.25 |
With a -1.50 mark, the Royals are only ahead of the Pirates (-1.85), the Yankees (-1.87), the Nationals (-2.11), and the Mariners (-2.25). That is a shame, primarily because the Royals, under manager Matt Quatraro, have been known for their aggressive and successful baserunning, particularly last season.
According to Statcast, from 2023 to 2024, the Royals ranked 5th in the league in runner runs with a 19.47 mark, a far cry from their total this season.
| Rank | Nickname | Abbreviation | Start Year | End Year | Runner Runs |
| 1 | D-backs | AZ | 2023 | 2024 | 30.73 |
| 2 | Reds | CIN | 2023 | 2024 | 28.00 |
| 3 | Brewers | MIL | 2023 | 2024 | 23.92 |
| 4 | Cubs | CHC | 2023 | 2024 | 20.47 |
| 5 | Royals | KC | 2023 | 2024 | 19.47 |
| 6 | Orioles | BAL | 2023 | 2024 | 15.08 |
| 7 | Phillies | PHI | 2023 | 2024 | 12.47 |
| 8 | Tigers | DET | 2023 | 2024 | 12.39 |
| 9 | Dodgers | LAD | 2023 | 2024 | 9.96 |
| 10 | Padres | SD | 2023 | 2024 | 6.85 |
| 11 | Rays | TB | 2023 | 2024 | 5.97 |
| 12 | Guardians | CLE | 2023 | 2024 | 4.60 |
| 13 | Braves | ATL | 2023 | 2024 | 2.90 |
| 14 | Red Sox | BOS | 2023 | 2024 | 1.31 |
| 15 | Pirates | PIT | 2023 | 2024 | 0.70 |
| 16 | Nationals | WSH | 2023 | 2024 | 0.16 |
| 17 | Mariners | SEA | 2023 | 2024 | -3.19 |
| 18 | Giants | SF | 2023 | 2024 | -3.96 |
| 19 | Marlins | MIA | 2023 | 2024 | -4.60 |
| 20 | Mets | NYM | 2023 | 2024 | -6.24 |
| 21 | Cardinals | STL | 2023 | 2024 | -7.35 |
| 22 | Athletics | OAK | 2023 | 2024 | -8.24 |
| 23 | Rangers | TEX | 2023 | 2024 | -10.03 |
| 24 | Rockies | COL | 2023 | 2024 | -12.12 |
| 25 | Twins | MIN | 2023 | 2024 | -12.88 |
| 26 | Astros | HOU | 2023 | 2024 | -15.09 |
| 27 | White Sox | CWS | 2023 | 2024 | -16.26 |
| 28 | Angels | LAA | 2023 | 2024 | -16.72 |
| 29 | Blue Jays | TOR | 2023 | 2024 | -20.24 |
| 30 | Yankees | NYY | 2023 | 2024 | -28.08 |
So what has been happening for the Royals this season, especially compared to the previous two years in Quatraro’s tenure? To get a better grasp of the Royals’ baserunning struggles, I wanted to analyze the two components of runner runs value: stolen bases and extra bases taken.
Here’s how each of those components contributes to the “runner runs” formula, as defined by Savant.
- Each steal opportunity is assigned a probability of being successful or not, based on the pitcher and catcher the basestealer is running against. Each successful or failed steal attempt is assigned a run value, with a stolen base or advance via a balk worth +0.2 runs for the baserunner and a caught stealing or pickoff worth -0.45 runs.
- For non-steal baserunning plays, an estimated success probability is generated for each opportunity using inputs that include runner speed, outfielder throwing arm, runner position on the basepaths, and outfielder distance from both the ball and the bases. That can be translated to a run value based on whether the runner successfully takes the extra base, is thrown out, or does not attempt to advance (holds).
I also wanted to examine the Royals’ sprint speed, both in terms of their performance as a team against the rest of the league and how they look individually this year and in the previous two seasons.
According to Savant, sprint speed is Statcast’s foot speed metric, defined as “feet per second in a player’s fastest one-second window” on individual play. By examining sprint speed, we can determine if the Royals possess the capacity for improved baserunning performance or if their current baserunning woes are a result of declining skills on the basepaths.
Thus, let’s break down each of those three components, both on a team and individual basis, and what are some takeaways Royals fans can have about the club’s baserunning outlook for the remainder of the season.
Royals Slightly Down on Extra Base Run Value
When it comes to run value on extra base hits this year, the Royals rank 13th in the league with a 0.65 mark.
| Rank | Nickname | Abbreviation | Year | XB Run Value |
| 1 | Mets | NYM | 2025 | 3.11 |
| 2 | Giants | SF | 2025 | 3.06 |
| 3 | Twins | MIN | 2025 | 3.06 |
| 4 | D-backs | AZ | 2025 | 2.76 |
| 5 | Tigers | DET | 2025 | 2.68 |
| 6 | Marlins | MIA | 2025 | 1.32 |
| 7 | Angels | LAA | 2025 | 1.27 |
| 8 | Cubs | CHC | 2025 | 1.24 |
| 9 | Rockies | COL | 2025 | 0.93 |
| 10 | Rangers | TEX | 2025 | 0.85 |
| 11 | Red Sox | BOS | 2025 | 0.72 |
| 12 | Athletics | ATH | 2025 | 0.70 |
| 13 | Royals | KC | 2025 | 0.65 |
| 14 | Brewers | MIL | 2025 | 0.62 |
| 15 | Orioles | BAL | 2025 | 0.54 |
| 16 | Braves | ATL | 2025 | 0.44 |
| 17 | Astros | HOU | 2025 | 0.00 |
| 18 | Dodgers | LAD | 2025 | -0.24 |
| 19 | Cardinals | STL | 2025 | -0.32 |
| 20 | White Sox | CWS | 2025 | -0.37 |
| 21 | Blue Jays | TOR | 2025 | -0.58 |
| 22 | Phillies | PHI | 2025 | -0.83 |
| 23 | Reds | CIN | 2025 | -1.31 |
| 24 | Rays | TB | 2025 | -1.49 |
| 25 | Nationals | WSH | 2025 | -1.58 |
| 26 | Padres | SD | 2025 | -1.72 |
| 27 | Guardians | CLE | 2025 | -1.79 |
| 28 | Yankees | NYY | 2025 | -1.85 |
| 29 | Pirates | PIT | 2025 | -2.58 |
| 30 | Mariners | SEA | 2025 | -2.68 |
Being 13th in the league is palatable, as it as least above the league average. It’s also nice to see a positive mark on there, which isn’t the case with their overall runner runs total through 27 games this season.
Individually, Witt leads the Royals in baserunning run value on extra-base hits (by a considerable margin) with a 1.03 mark.
| Player | Abbrevation | Year | XB Runner Runs |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | KC | 2025 | 1.03 |
| Canha, Mark | KC | 2025 | 0.49 |
| India, Jonathan | KC | 2025 | 0.31 |
| Isbel, Kyle | KC | 2025 | 0.31 |
| Waters, Drew | KC | 2025 | 0.30 |
| Biggio, Cavan | KC | 2025 | 0.13 |
| Massey, Michael | KC | 2025 | 0.08 |
| Blanco, Dairon | KC | 2025 | 0.06 |
| Renfroe, Hunter | KC | 2025 | 0.02 |
| Melendez, MJ | KC | 2025 | -0.03 |
| Tolbert, Tyler | KC | 2025 | -0.07 |
| Fermin, Freddy | KC | 2025 | -0.16 |
| Garcia, Maikel | KC | 2025 | -0.23 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | KC | 2025 | -0.29 |
| Perez, Salvador | KC | 2025 | -1.29 |
There are a couple of surprises on both ends of the spectrum when it comes to baserunning runs created on extra base hits.
Mark Canha has the second-best mark on the team with a 0.49 mark, and Jonathan India is tied with Kyle Isbel for third with a 0.31 mark. The India one is encouraging to see because he’s off to a cold start this season with a .202 average, .265 wOBA, and 66 wRC+ in 102 plate appearances. However, once India starts finding the gaps at Kauffman Stadium, it’s possible that he could see some considerable bounce back in his overall metrics, especially since he’s demonstrated value on collecting extra bases on hits this season, despite the struggles.
At the bottom of the list are Vinnie (-0.29) and Salvy (-1.29), which isn’t surprising since they’ve never been categorized as “plus” baserunners at any point in their careers. Conversely, Maikel Garcia has the third-worst XB Runner Runs value at -0.29. He’s been hitting well so far this season with a .284 average, .343 wOBA, and 122 wRC+ in 99 plate appearances. That said, his lackluster baserunning ability when it comes to getting extra bases on hits demonstrates that his value could be even greater than it currently is.
When it comes to what constitutes baserunning runs through extra bases, how well a runner advances, avoids being thrown out, and holds are all factored into the equation. Here’s how the Royals individually break down in those three categories, which helps further explain their total XB Runner Runs.
| Player | Year | Advances | Thrown Out | Holds | XB Advance Attempts |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 2025 | 1.23 | 0.00 | -0.20 | 17 |
| Garcia, Maikel | 2025 | 0.60 | -0.77 | -0.05 | 9 |
| Canha, Mark | 2025 | 0.52 | 0.00 | -0.02 | 5 |
| India, Jonathan | 2025 | 0.46 | 0.00 | -0.15 | 8 |
| Waters, Drew | 2025 | 0.38 | 0.00 | -0.08 | 4 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 2025 | 0.37 | 0.00 | -0.06 | 4 |
| Renfroe, Hunter | 2025 | 0.26 | 0.00 | -0.25 | 2 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 2025 | 0.20 | 0.00 | -0.49 | 5 |
| Massey, Michael | 2025 | 0.20 | 0.00 | -0.12 | 3 |
| Biggio, Cavan | 2025 | 0.14 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 1 |
| Fermin, Freddy | 2025 | 0.12 | 0.00 | -0.28 | 3 |
| Perez, Salvador | 2025 | 0.12 | 0.00 | -1.40 | 9 |
| Blanco, Dairon | 2025 | 0.06 | 0.00 | -0.01 | 1 |
| Melendez, MJ | 2025 | 0.01 | 0.00 | -0.04 | 1 |
| Tolbert, Tyler | 2025 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.07 | 0 |
Witt and Garcia have been the most aggressive Royals when it comes to getting extra bases on hits, as they have advanced 17 and 9 times, respectively. Furthermore, they have the highest runs on advancing opportunities with 1.20 and 0.60 marks. Conversely, Salvy is tied with Maikel with the second-most advances with nine, but he’s only accumulated 0.12 runner runs on advances, which is tied for fourth-lowest on the team.
Where Garcia gets particularly dinged is in the “thrown out category,” as he has -0.77 runner runs on the throw outs this season. He also has a -0.05 runs mark in holds, which both heavily contribute to his subpar overall extra-base runner runs mark this season. Salvy is more hurt by the “holds” category with a -1.40 mark.
Therefore, Salvy and Garcia have been hindered by their decision-making on the basepaths this season, with Salvy’s cautiousness affecting him more (which is understandable), and Garcia’s over-aggressiveness being the primary issue.
Let’s look at how the Royals have fared in extra-base run value in 2023 and 2024.
| Player | Start Year | End Year | Advances | Thrown Out | Holds | XB Runner Runs | XB Advance Attempts |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 2023 | 2024 | 14.01 | -1.61 | -2.51 | 9.88 | 167 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 2023 | 2024 | 8.77 | -1.54 | -1.64 | 5.59 | 88 |
| Garcia, Maikel | 2023 | 2024 | 7.94 | -1.69 | -2.94 | 3.31 | 112 |
| Melendez, MJ | 2023 | 2024 | 8.25 | -3.34 | -2.61 | 2.30 | 91 |
| Massey, Michael | 2023 | 2024 | 4.29 | 0.00 | -2.19 | 2.10 | 62 |
| Blanco, Dairon | 2023 | 2024 | 2.01 | 0.00 | -0.55 | 1.46 | 30 |
| Hampson, Garrett | 2023 | 2024 | 1.70 | 0.00 | -0.48 | 1.22 | 22 |
| Waters, Drew | 2023 | 2024 | 2.61 | -0.78 | -0.76 | 1.07 | 37 |
| Olivares, Edward | 2023 | 2024 | 2.72 | -0.81 | -0.95 | 0.96 | 34 |
| Velázquez, Nelson | 2023 | 2024 | 1.29 | 0.00 | -0.50 | 0.79 | 23 |
| Dozier, Hunter | 2023 | 2023 | 0.79 | 0.00 | -0.05 | 0.73 | 7 |
| Lopez, Nicky | 2023 | 2024 | 2.00 | -0.89 | -0.48 | 0.64 | 19 |
| Loftin, Nick | 2023 | 2024 | 1.34 | 0.00 | -0.94 | 0.39 | 15 |
| Frazier, Adam | 2023 | 2024 | 1.22 | 0.00 | -1.10 | 0.12 | 24 |
| Fermin, Freddy | 2023 | 2024 | 2.01 | 0.00 | -1.91 | 0.10 | 34 |
| Gurriel, Yuli | 2023 | 2024 | 0.28 | 0.00 | -0.25 | 0.03 | 4 |
| Taylor, Samad | 2023 | 2024 | 0.30 | 0.00 | -0.35 | -0.05 | 8 |
| Bradley Jr., Jackie | 2023 | 2023 | 0.02 | 0.00 | -0.14 | -0.13 | 6 |
| DeJong, Paul | 2023 | 2024 | 0.37 | 0.00 | -0.55 | -0.18 | 6 |
| Pratto, Nick | 2023 | 2024 | 2.00 | -0.93 | -1.60 | -0.53 | 29 |
| Duffy, Matt | 2023 | 2024 | 0.67 | -0.85 | -0.53 | -0.71 | 15 |
| Beaty, Matt | 2023 | 2023 | 0.05 | 0.00 | -0.84 | -0.79 | 5 |
| Pham, Tommy | 2023 | 2024 | 0.14 | -0.89 | -1.13 | -1.89 | 6 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 2023 | 2024 | 2.16 | -0.80 | -3.72 | -2.36 | 52 |
| Renfroe, Hunter | 2023 | 2024 | 1.19 | -1.94 | -1.98 | -2.72 | 27 |
| Perez, Salvador | 2023 | 2024 | 1.15 | -0.98 | -8.87 | -8.70 | 52 |
Once again, Bobby has thrived over the past two years, achieving a 9.88 mark, and Isbel has the second-best mark with a 5.59 mark. On the other end of the spectrum, Salvy was the worst in 2023 and 2024, with a total mark of -8.70. He struggled in the holds category with a -8.87 mark. This demonstrates that what we’re seeing from Salvy this season is not much different from what we have seen in the past.
Conversely, Garcia was quite proficient when it came to extra base runners in 2023 and 2024.
He was much more judicious and not as aggressive when it came to stretching out base hits, as his “holds” run mark was lower than his “thrown out” number. That makes one wonder if Garcia is trying to do too much on the bases to justify playing time in 2025.
Based on these individual stats, it’s not surprising that the Royals fared much better on extra-base runner runs on base hits from 2023 to 2024, as they ranked 6th with an 11.32 mark.
| Rank | Nickname | Abbreviation | Start Year | End Year | XB Runner Runs |
| 1 | D-backs | AZ | 2023 | 2024 | 21.25 |
| 2 | Tigers | DET | 2023 | 2024 | 16.27 |
| 3 | Orioles | BAL | 2023 | 2024 | 15.73 |
| 4 | Reds | CIN | 2023 | 2024 | 14.46 |
| 5 | Cubs | CHC | 2023 | 2024 | 11.83 |
| 6 | Royals | KC | 2023 | 2024 | 11.32 |
| 7 | Brewers | MIL | 2023 | 2024 | 8.91 |
| 8 | Phillies | PHI | 2023 | 2024 | 8.65 |
| 9 | Padres | SD | 2023 | 2024 | 7.12 |
| 10 | Dodgers | LAD | 2023 | 2024 | 6.55 |
| 11 | Rays | TB | 2023 | 2024 | 5.22 |
| 12 | Guardians | CLE | 2023 | 2024 | 4.04 |
| 13 | Pirates | PIT | 2023 | 2024 | 3.73 |
| 14 | Giants | SF | 2023 | 2024 | 2.95 |
| 15 | Braves | ATL | 2023 | 2024 | 0.86 |
| 16 | Red Sox | BOS | 2023 | 2024 | -0.28 |
| 17 | Cardinals | STL | 2023 | 2024 | -1.56 |
| 18 | Marlins | MIA | 2023 | 2024 | -1.86 |
| 19 | Nationals | WSH | 2023 | 2024 | -2.87 |
| 20 | Rangers | TEX | 2023 | 2024 | -5.58 |
| 21 | Twins | MIN | 2023 | 2024 | -7.29 |
| 22 | Mariners | SEA | 2023 | 2024 | -8.61 |
| 23 | White Sox | CWS | 2023 | 2024 | -8.87 |
| 24 | Rockies | COL | 2023 | 2024 | -10.53 |
| 25 | Athletics | OAK | 2023 | 2024 | -10.59 |
| 26 | Angels | LAA | 2023 | 2024 | -11.64 |
| 27 | Blue Jays | TOR | 2023 | 2024 | -13.67 |
| 28 | Mets | NYM | 2023 | 2024 | -13.81 |
| 29 | Astros | HOU | 2023 | 2024 | -15.50 |
| 30 | Yankees | NYY | 2023 | 2024 | -20.40 |
Therefore, even though the Royals’ performance in collecting extra bases isn’t necessarily detrimental, they can improve, especially if key players, such as Garcia, can enhance their baserunning abilities on base hits.
Royals Lackluster When It Comes to Stolen Bases
While the runs on extra bases have been relatively OK (though not great), it’s been a much different story when it comes to baserunning runs on stolen bases.
The Royals rank last this year in baseball with -2.14 baserunning runs on stolen bases.
| Rank | Nickname | Abbreviation | Year | SB Runner Runs |
| 1 | Cubs | CHC | 2025 | 3.99 |
| 2 | Cardinals | STL | 2025 | 2.66 |
| 3 | Brewers | MIL | 2025 | 2.27 |
| 4 | Mets | NYM | 2025 | 2.03 |
| 5 | Rays | TB | 2025 | 1.20 |
| 6 | Phillies | PHI | 2025 | 1.07 |
| 7 | Guardians | CLE | 2025 | 1.04 |
| 8 | Red Sox | BOS | 2025 | 1.02 |
| 9 | Pirates | PIT | 2025 | 0.73 |
| 10 | D-backs | AZ | 2025 | 0.53 |
| 11 | Padres | SD | 2025 | 0.49 |
| 12 | Mariners | SEA | 2025 | 0.44 |
| 13 | Tigers | DET | 2025 | 0.41 |
| 14 | Reds | CIN | 2025 | 0.35 |
| 15 | Yankees | NYY | 2025 | -0.02 |
| 16 | Blue Jays | TOR | 2025 | -0.07 |
| 17 | Braves | ATL | 2025 | -0.15 |
| 18 | Rangers | TEX | 2025 | -0.26 |
| 19 | Twins | MIN | 2025 | -0.38 |
| 20 | White Sox | CWS | 2025 | -0.39 |
| 21 | Dodgers | LAD | 2025 | -0.45 |
| 22 | Nationals | WSH | 2025 | -0.52 |
| 23 | Angels | LAA | 2025 | -0.78 |
| 24 | Orioles | BAL | 2025 | -0.85 |
| 25 | Astros | HOU | 2025 | -0.90 |
| 26 | Rockies | COL | 2025 | -0.93 |
| 27 | Giants | SF | 2025 | -0.99 |
| 28 | Athletics | ATH | 2025 | -1.54 |
| 29 | Marlins | MIA | 2025 | -2.10 |
| 30 | Royals | KC | 2025 | –2.14 |
That’s a complete 180-degree turn from what the Royals did in 2023 and 2024 under Quatraro. Over those two years, they ranked fifth in baserunning runs via stolen bases with an 8.16 mark.
| Rank | Nickname | Abbreviation | Start Year | End Year | SB Runner Runs |
| 1 | Brewers | MIL | 2023 | 2024 | 15.00 |
| 2 | Reds | CIN | 2023 | 2024 | 13.54 |
| 3 | D-backs | AZ | 2023 | 2024 | 9.48 |
| 4 | Cubs | CHC | 2023 | 2024 | 8.64 |
| 5 | Royals | KC | 2023 | 2024 | 8.16 |
| 6 | Mets | NYM | 2023 | 2024 | 7.58 |
| 7 | Mariners | SEA | 2023 | 2024 | 5.42 |
| 8 | Phillies | PHI | 2023 | 2024 | 3.82 |
| 9 | Dodgers | LAD | 2023 | 2024 | 3.41 |
| 10 | Nationals | WSH | 2023 | 2024 | 3.04 |
| 11 | Athletics | OAK | 2023 | 2024 | 2.35 |
| 12 | Braves | ATL | 2023 | 2024 | 2.04 |
| 13 | Red Sox | BOS | 2023 | 2024 | 1.59 |
| 14 | Rays | TB | 2023 | 2024 | 0.75 |
| 15 | Guardians | CLE | 2023 | 2024 | 0.56 |
| 16 | Astros | HOU | 2023 | 2024 | 0.41 |
| 17 | Padres | SD | 2023 | 2024 | -0.27 |
| 18 | Orioles | BAL | 2023 | 2024 | -0.65 |
| 19 | Rockies | COL | 2023 | 2024 | -1.59 |
| 20 | Marlins | MIA | 2023 | 2024 | -2.74 |
| 21 | Pirates | PIT | 2023 | 2024 | -3.03 |
| 22 | Tigers | DET | 2023 | 2024 | -3.88 |
| 23 | Rangers | TEX | 2023 | 2024 | -4.45 |
| 24 | Angels | LAA | 2023 | 2024 | -5.08 |
| 25 | Twins | MIN | 2023 | 2024 | -5.59 |
| 26 | Cardinals | STL | 2023 | 2024 | -5.79 |
| 27 | Blue Jays | TOR | 2023 | 2024 | -6.57 |
| 28 | Giants | SF | 2023 | 2024 | -6.91 |
| 29 | White Sox | CWS | 2023 | 2024 | -7.39 |
| 30 | Yankees | NYY | 2023 | 2024 | -7.68 |
The SB baserunning runs mark this season is a 10.30-run difference from a season ago. That kind of gap is enormous, especially since the Royals haven’t been excelling in terms of power metrics. As of Saturday, via Fangraphs, they rank 29th in the league in OPS and 30th in ISO (isolated slugging) and home runs.
Stolen bases have been a significant factor in the Royals’ success under Quatraro. Thus, the Royals being the worst club in baseball in this category is a substantial obstacle to building on their 86-win campaign in 2024.
Here’s the stolen base baserunning run data for Royals players this season, broken down by run value on stolen base attempts at second base, third base, overall, and number of attempts overall.
| Player | Year | 2nd Base Runner Runs | 3rd Base Runner Runs | Total SB Runner Runs | SB Attempts |
| Tolbert, Tyler | 2025 | 0.56 | 0.32 | 0.88 | 5 |
| Blanco, Dairon | 2025 | 0.38 | -0.01 | 0.38 | 2 |
| Canha, Mark | 2025 | -0.01 | -0.02 | -0.03 | 0 |
| Renfroe, Hunter | 2025 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 | 0 |
| Fermin, Freddy | 2025 | -0.03 | -0.01 | -0.04 | 0 |
| Biggio, Cavan | 2025 | -0.02 | -0.02 | -0.04 | 0 |
| Melendez, MJ | 2025 | -0.02 | -0.03 | -0.04 | 0 |
| Massey, Michael | 2025 | -0.05 | 0.01 | -0.05 | 0 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 2025 | -0.03 | -0.03 | -0.06 | 0 |
| Perez, Salvador | 2025 | -0.06 | -0.03 | -0.09 | 0 |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 2025 | -0.32 | 0.15 | -0.17 | 10 |
| Waters, Drew | 2025 | -0.30 | -0.01 | -0.31 | 2 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 2025 | -0.52 | -0.01 | -0.52 | 1 |
| India, Jonathan | 2025 | -0.51 | -0.01 | -0.52 | 1 |
| Garcia, Maikel | 2025 | -1.23 | -0.26 | -1.48 | 6 |
Tyler Tolbert (0.88) and Dairon Blanco (0.38) have been the only two Royals players who have provided positive run value on stolen bases this season. On one hand, it’s nice that the Royals have these baserunning weapons off the bench (though Blanco is currently on IL). Conversely, they are not everyday players, which means their impact is not as significant.
Witt and Garcia lead the Royals in stolen base attempts with 10 and 6, respectively. However, they have produced -0.17 and -1.48 runs on stolen bases this year. Garcia stole 37 bases and Witt stole 31 bases last year, so to see those kinds of negative marks is a huge red flag for both players.
Being thrown out or picked off on the bases has been a significant issue for both players, contributing to their underwhelming stolen base totals.
Garcia has been caught five times this year, while Witt has been caught three times. Witt has had this issue for the past couple of years, having been caught 27 times in 2023 and 2024 combined. Garcia’s been more efficient, as he’s only been caught nine times in the past two seasons. Thus, to see Garcia over halfway this season to that combined mark from the past two years is a concern.
His lackluster stolen base numbers are also alarming since he’s been the best regular Royals player the previous two seasons when it comes to generating runs off stolen bases.
| Name | Start Year | End Year | 2nd Base Runner Runs | Third Base Runner Runs | SB Runner Runs | SB Attempts |
| Blanco, Dairon | 2023 | 2024 | 3.83 | 2.39 | 6.22 | 60 |
| Garcia, Maikel | 2023 | 2024 | 2.92 | 2.24 | 5.15 | 65 |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 2023 | 2024 | 4.10 | -0.25 | 3.85 | 82 |
| Taylor, Samad | 2023 | 2024 | 0.94 | 0.18 | 1.12 | 6 |
| Waters, Drew | 2023 | 2024 | 0.52 | 0.26 | 0.78 | 16 |
| Dozier, Hunter | 2023 | 2023 | 0.33 | -0.03 | 0.30 | 2 |
| Frazier, Adam | 2023 | 2024 | 0.39 | -0.16 | 0.23 | 3 |
| Gurriel, Yuli | 2023 | 2024 | 0.13 | -0.02 | 0.11 | 1 |
| Duffy, Matt | 2023 | 2024 | 0.01 | -0.04 | -0.03 | 1 |
| Bradley Jr., Jackie | 2023 | 2023 | -0.01 | -0.04 | -0.05 | 0 |
| Hampson, Garrett | 2023 | 2024 | -0.16 | 0.09 | -0.07 | 4 |
| Beaty, Matt | 2023 | 2023 | -0.07 | -0.01 | -0.08 | 0 |
| Fermin, Freddy | 2023 | 2024 | 0.04 | -0.24 | -0.20 | 3 |
| Loftin, Nick | 2023 | 2024 | -0.17 | -0.09 | -0.26 | 1 |
| Pham, Tommy | 2023 | 2024 | -0.33 | -0.03 | -0.36 | 2 |
| Velázquez, Nelson | 2023 | 2024 | -0.04 | -0.33 | -0.38 | 3 |
| Pratto, Nick | 2023 | 2024 | -0.57 | 0.09 | -0.48 | 3 |
| Renfroe, Hunter | 2023 | 2024 | -0.36 | -0.13 | -0.49 | 0 |
| Lopez, Nicky | 2023 | 2024 | -0.53 | -0.04 | -0.56 | 5 |
| DeJong, Paul | 2023 | 2024 | -0.53 | -0.04 | -0.57 | 1 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 2023 | 2024 | 0.11 | -0.72 | -0.60 | 17 |
| Olivares, Edward | 2023 | 2024 | -0.50 | -0.16 | -0.66 | 13 |
| Massey, Michael | 2023 | 2024 | -0.27 | -0.72 | -0.99 | 9 |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 2023 | 2024 | -0.74 | -0.26 | -1.00 | 0 |
| Perez, Salvador | 2023 | 2024 | -1.01 | -0.23 | -1.24 | 0 |
| Melendez, MJ | 2023 | 2024 | -1.22 | -0.74 | -1.97 | 12 |
Blanco has been more-than-dependable over the past three years, which explains why he continues to have a roster spot when healthy. Conversely, Witt and Garcia need to turn things around, since they ranked second and third overall in run value on stolen bases in 2023 and 2024.
Better basestealing from those two could help the Royals score more runs, something that has evaded them for the most part in 2025 through 27 games (they rank 27th in runs scored).
Royals Should Be Better on Basepaths Based on Sprint Speed
The Royals rank ninth in baseball in sprint speed with a team-average sprint speed of 27.19 feet/second. They also rank third in baseball with 21 “bolts”, which is any run above 30 ft/sec.
| Rank | team | year | bolts | avg_sprint_speed |
| 1 | Phillies | 2025 | 26 | 27.51 |
| 2 | Brewers | 2025 | 23 | 27.95 |
| 3 | Royals | 2025 | 21 | 27.19 |
| 4 | Twins | 2025 | 18 | 26.70 |
| 5 | Cardinals | 2025 | 18 | 26.62 |
| 6 | Nationals | 2025 | 16 | 27.07 |
| 7 | Reds | 2025 | 14 | 27.37 |
| 8 | Astros | 2025 | 14 | 27.24 |
| 9 | Mariners | 2025 | 12 | 27.21 |
| 10 | Padres | 2025 | 12 | 27.13 |
| 11 | Rays | 2025 | 11 | 26.99 |
| 12 | D-backs | 2025 | 10 | 26.85 |
| 13 | Cubs | 2025 | 9 | 27.43 |
| 14 | Giants | 2025 | 9 | 27.08 |
| 15 | Rangers | 2025 | 8 | 27.04 |
| 16 | Orioles | 2025 | 6 | 27.81 |
| 17 | Marlins | 2025 | 6 | 27.26 |
| 18 | Braves | 2025 | 6 | 26.47 |
| 19 | White Sox | 2025 | 5 | 26.87 |
| 20 | Mets | 2025 | 5 | 26.70 |
| 21 | Rockies | 2025 | 4 | 26.94 |
| 22 | Blue Jays | 2025 | 4 | 26.87 |
| 23 | Angels | 2025 | 4 | 26.82 |
| 24 | Red Sox | 2025 | 3 | 27.18 |
| 25 | Pirates | 2025 | 3 | 27.06 |
| 26 | Guardians | 2025 | 2 | 26.83 |
| 27 | Yankees | 2025 | 1 | 27.04 |
| 28 | Tigers | 2025 | 27.01 | |
| 29 | Dodgers | 2025 | 26.90 | |
| 30 | Athletics | 2025 | 26.75 |
Thus, the Royals as a team possess top-end sprint speed, which typically helps teams be more productive on the basepaths. Granted, all 21 bolts belong to Witt, which explains why they rank so highly in bolts, but six spots lower in average sprint speed.
Here’s how qualified Royals hitters rank in sprint speed metrics, including home-plate to first-base time.
| Player | Bolts | Home to First Time | Sprint Speed |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 21 | 4.10 | 30.20 |
| Garcia, Maikel | 4.42 | 27.70 | |
| Isbel, Kyle | 4.22 | 27.60 | |
| India, Jonathan | 4.47 | 27.50 | |
| Waters, Drew | 27.40 | ||
| Biggio, Cavan | 27.30 | ||
| Canha, Mark | 27.00 | ||
| Melendez, MJ | 26.90 | ||
| Fermin, Freddy | 4.65 | 26.70 | |
| Renfroe, Hunter | 4.61 | 26.50 | |
| Massey, Michael | 4.54 | 26.10 | |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 4.82 | 25.00 | |
| Perez, Salvador | 5.01 | 24.30 |
Garcia’s profile is interesting as he ranks second in average sprint speed (27.70). However, his home plate to first base time (in seconds) is 0.32 seconds slower than Witt’s and 0.20 seconds slower than Isbel’s, who ranks behind Garcia in average sprint speed. His time is also only 0.05 seconds faster than India, who is 0.20 ft/s slower on average in sprint speed.
Thus, despite his baserunning numbers from 2023 and 2024, Garcia may not be as naturally fast as Royals fans may like to think, especially when it comes to getting out of the box.
His sprint speed metrics from the previous two seasons seem to confirm that hypothesis.
| Player | Bolts | Home to First Time | Sprint Speed |
| Witt Jr., Bobby | 305 | 4.11 | 30.5 |
| Blanco, Dairon | 59 | 4.14 | 30.1 |
| Hampson, Garrett | 57 | 4.21 | 29.8 |
| Waters, Drew | 4.30 | 28.7 | |
| Garcia, Maikel | 10 | 4.44 | 28.1 |
| Isbel, Kyle | 1 | 4.32 | 27.8 |
| Grossman, Robbie | 4.39 | 27.8 | |
| Melendez, MJ | 4.22 | 27.7 | |
| Loftin, Nick | 4.55 | 27.6 | |
| Pham, Tommy | 4.56 | 27.6 | |
| Velázquez, Nelson | 4.51 | 27.4 | |
| Gurriel, Yuli | 4.46 | 27.1 | |
| Massey, Michael | 4.47 | 27.1 | |
| DeJong, Paul | 4.61 | 26.8 | |
| Fermin, Freddy | 4.63 | 26.8 | |
| Renfroe, Hunter | 4.63 | 26.8 | |
| Frazier, Adam | 4.49 | 26.6 | |
| Pasquantino, Vinnie | 4.66 | 25.7 | |
| Perez, Salvador | 4.93 | 24.4 |
From 2023 to 2024, Garcia ranks fifth in average sprint speed (28.1 ft/sec). However, he only has 10 bolts, which is 295 fewer than Witt, 49 fewer than Blanco, and 57 fewer than Garrett Hampson, a Royals fan favorite.
His home-to-first base time also ranks eighth in this sample, not only behind Witt, Blanco, and Hampson, but also Waters, MJ Melendez, Isbel, and Robbie Grossman.
Based on these sprint speed metrics, I feel confident that Witt will be fine on stolen bases and getting extra runs. The same could be said of Waters and Isbel, who appear to be regular outfielders, as Melendez receives more development work in Omaha.
Unfortunately, I wonder if Garcia may be due for some baserunning regression in 2025, not just in terms of stolen bases, but in terms of runs generated on extra bases as well. The sprint speed data isn’t poor by any means, but he doesn’t have the top-flight sprint speed to make up for instinctual errors on the basepaths like Witt, Tolbert, or Blanco.
It makes one wonder if Garcia is perhaps showing some tells on the basepaths, especially when it comes to his stolen base regression. The kind of drop, even over a small sample size, is quite stark and may signal an area where Garcia needs to make adjustments when he gets on base, especially since there is not much change in sprint speed from the previous year (though a 0.40 ft/sec difference is not insignificant).
That said, a positive baserunning regression for Garcia could help the Royals’ baserunning metrics overall. That, in turn, would help them increase their scoring outlook for the remainder of the season and get them back in the division race, as expected at the start of the 2025 campaign.
Photo Credit: Elsa/Getty Images
I believe we are placing the cart ahead of the horses. Our more salient problem is hitting/getting on base. Once that is ironed out, then base running/stealing becomes an issue. Personally, I’d like to see how they perform going 1st to third on basehits, as that can place pressure on the pitcher and improve chances of a hit.
Until they solve the hitting problem, it is premature to further burden them.
We have weak hitting because the front office kept Renfroe and got India instead of a third baseman with a corner bat offensive profile.
I don’t disagree. The hitting is the bigger issue. That said, the hitting had waves last year too and baserunning remained pretty consistent. That hasn’t been the case this year. Maybe they’re putting too much pressure on themselves because they know the lineup isn’t doing well. But the heavy regression of Garcia on the basepaths is a concern.
The extra bases metric I discussed includes going first to third or second to home. That’s why players like Kyle Isbel rate so highly, even though he isn’t a prolific base stealer. Witt also rates well in this category, which is only enhanced by his stolen base ability. Salvy is the worst on this end, which is demonstrated by his “hold” numbers. But considering his age, speed, and size, this shouldn’t be an issue.
I understand that concern, but not sure who that would’ve been other than Alex Bregman, who seemed intent on going to Boston. You can’t force these guys into deals. Besides, Profar and Moncada, two guys you advocated for have been disasters. Profar is suspended 80 games for PEDs, and Moncada is hitting .190 and now on the IL. Baty was another target but he is hitting .204 and was optioned to AAA. Santander is hitting .182. Not sure a 5-year deal would’ve been welcomed. I am not happy with Renfroe’s performance, but I’m not sure there are a lot of options who wanted to play in KC (let’s face facts, KC is not a market that is attractive to some players). I do think the front office will make a move, especially once teams get more desperate and are looking to sell. Could see JJ starting the hot stove season as soon as a team is ready to deal, which should be in June.