It’s safe to say that the Royals’ hitting stats have not been impressive through 19 games this season, which explains their 8-11 record entering Thursday’s game against Detroit.
As Joel Penfield of One Royals Way shared on Twitter, Kansas City ranks near the bottom of the league in most major offensive categories.
Nothing is going right for Royals hitters at the plate so far in 2025.
They’re not striking out a tremendous amount (they rank 9th in K%). However, they’re not hitting the ball hard (24th in hard contact%), they’re not hitting for power (30th in ISO), and they’re not drawing walks either (26th in BB%). Going into 2025, it was expected that the Royals’ pitching would be deeper than their hitting. However, this kind of drop-off in 2025, mainly from Royals hitters not named Bobby Witt Jr., is particularly shocking, especially for a club that won 86 games last season.
Talking with some people offline, there have been numerous theories about the Royals’ offensive struggles so far. Is it a talent issue? A coaching issue? A weather issue? A competition issue? That said, one topic that intrigued me was this: Are the Royals not a good team against fastballs?
I wanted to see if there was any truth to this argument.
Thus, I dove into Savant to check the data from this year and years past when it came to Royals hitters against fastball pitches (four-seamers, sinkers, and cutters) and how they fared against the league and individually. Furthermore, I also checked the bat tracking data to see if it could explain any “skill” reasons why Royals hitters were (or were not) struggling against fastball pitches, both this year and in previous years (2023 and 2024).
Let’s dive into the data and see if any trends emerge.
Royals Rank Near the Bottom as a Team in Performance Against Fastballs in 2025
When it comes to Royals hitters’ results against fastballs this year, it hasn’t been pretty via Savant. They rank at the bottom of the league in batter run value against fastballs, both in leveraged and context-neutral situations.
In addition to that lackluster overall ranking in batter run value, they also lag behind the league in other Statcast categories against fastballs. Here’s the specific breakdown:
- 29th in wOBA
- 29th in BA
- 26th in xBA
- 26th in xwOBA
- 14th in Whiff rate
- 23rd in average exit velocity
- 28th in hard-hit rate
- 25th in barrel/BBE% (barrels per batted ball event)
In terms of individual Royals hitting performances, this is how they break down on a batter run value basis via Savant.
Witt and Maikel Garcia have been the Royals’ best hitters this season against fastball pitches with two and one batter run value (leveraged), respectively. They also have a .393 and .331 wOBA and 10.7% and 10% barrel rates, respectively. Mark Canha has been solid against fastball pitches on a wOBA and xwOBA end, based on his .356 and .397 marks.
After that, though, the results become discouraging for Royals fans.
MJ Melendez has been the worst on a whiff rate end against fastball, as evidenced by his 43.1% mark. What makes matters worse with MJ is that he isn’t just whiffing against high-velocity fastballs. Here’s an example of Melendez striking out on a foul tip against a 90.6 MPH fastball from Ben Lively during the Cleveland series.
On a positive note, when Melendez has been able to connect with fastballs, it has been productive. That is demonstrated by his 53.8% hard hit rate and 23.1% barrel rate against fastballs this season. Thus, it may be more of a timing and recognition issue for Melendez, as he performs well against fastballs when he makes contact; however, he is not making enough contact.
The more concerning marks are Jonathan India and Michael Massey, who have a combined -10 batter run value (both context neutral and leveraged) against fastballs this season.
India and Massey aren’t whiffing a tremendous amount. India’s whiff rate is only 11.6% against fastballs while Massey’s is only 16.7%. Both those marks are better than Hunter Renfroe‘s (21.7%), Salvador Perez‘s (20.5%), Kyle Isbel‘s (21.8%), and Vinnie Pasquantino‘s (19.7%). Conversely, India has a .136 batting average and .243 wOBA against fastballs this year, while Massey has a .118 average and .156 wOBA.
That said, their expected metrics look a lot better for both of them. India’s xBA and xwOBA are .243 and .349, respectively, while Massey’s marks are .214 and .250. Let’s look at the wOBA and xwOBA zone chart comparison for India to see what the difference has been on a zone end.
India has succeeded on fastballs thrown right down the middle, as evidenced by his .893 wOBA. However, his xwOBA has demonstrated that he’s been unlucky on fastballs thrown in zone 2 (.255 wOBA), zone 4 (.298 wOBA), and zone 9 (.000 wOBA). There have been tremendous differences in wOBA and xwOBA in those zones, and that’s likely to regress to the mean as India gets more at-bats.
Now, let’s take a look at Massey’s zone charts.
Massey’s issues are a bit different. He’s done well on fastballs up in zone 2 (.893 wOBA; .678 xwOBA), and he’s been a bit unlucky on fastballs in zone 4 (.000 wOBA; .569 xwOBA) and zone 7 (.000 wOBA; .705 xwOBA). That said, he’s been bad on pitches in zone 5, which is middle-middle. Not only is his wOBA subpar in that zone, but his xwOBA is even worse.
This discrepancy shows that pitchers can throw heat right down Broadway on Massey, and he’s not able to catch up (or if he does, the contact is not productive). Here’s an example of Massey getting a 90 MPH fastball in that middle-middle zone and only able to foul tip it.
Much has been made about MJ’s struggles so far this season. However, Massey is not doing much better overall. In 67 plate appearances, he’s only hitting .172 with a .413 OPS. His hard-hit rate (28.8%) and barrel rate (1.9%) are down from a year ago, while his K rate is up (19.4%). Lastly, against fastballs, he’s only sporting a 37.9% hard-hit rate and 3.4% barrel rate.
At least MJ has hit the ball hard against fastballs. Thus, if Massey isn’t able to see more positive gains against fastballs going forward, he may have a tough time turning things around at the plate.
How Long Has This Issue Persisted?
When examining the Royals’ hitters’ performance against fastballs in the past, this has appeared to be a long-term issue, particularly when considering the metrics from 2023 and 2024 via Savant.
In terms of batter run value (leveraged) as a team, they rank 26th from 2023 to 2024, ahead of only the White Sox, Tigers, A’s, and Marlins (not exactly great company).
Let’s take a look at where they rank in other categories over those two years as well.
- 28th in wOBA
- 20th in BA
- 9th in xBA
- 13th in xwOBA
- 9th in Whiff rate
- 3rd in average exit velocity
- 3rd in hard-hit rate
- 12th in barrel/BBE% (barrels per batted ball event)
The stats are a little weirder here. They have been much better in terms of hard-hit metrics from 2023 to 2024 against fastballs, and they whiffed less as well. However, the batting average and wOBA didn’t produce excellent results, much like this season.
When looking at those hitters’ performances on an individual basis over that period, it’s interesting to see which hitters have improved this year and which ones haven’t.
Garcia has seen the most significant growth solely in terms of run value, as he was -30 against fastballs in 2023 and 2024. He is whiffing more, as his whiff rate is 2.8% higher this year. However, he is barreling fastballs more, as his 10% barrel rate against fastballs is 6.2% higher than his 2023-2024 average.
As for Massey? His hard-hit rate and barrel rates were much higher from 2023-2024 (41.7% and 8.8%), and his whiff rate was 1.6% lower from 2023-2024.
Therefore, he may be due for some positive regression if he can get back to those two-year norms.
Can Bat Tracking Give Us An Idea of Royals’ Issues?
Hitting is always a two-part process. On one end, hitters have to have great pitch recognition and discipline. That is part coaching, part mental makeup of the player.
The second part is that they have to be able to make contact and square the ball up productively, physically. That is more skill-based. Nicky Lopez can’t suddenly begin barreling the balls with his size and frame. Some guys have the skills to hit fastballs productively. Some don’t.
Thus, bat tracking data via Statcast can effectively reveal the skills hitters possess that determine their outlook against fastballs. I wanted to focus on four bat tracking metrics:
- Average bat speed tells us how fast their typical swing is.
- The fast-swing rate tells us how often they take fast swings, which can lead to more productive contact.
- Squared up rate tells us how often they get squared to the ball, which often leads to successful results.
- Average swing length- How long it takes for their swing to get through the zone to the contact point.
Here’s how the Royals compare to the rest of the league as a team, organized by average bat speed.
The Royals rank as follows in those four categories I mentioned above:
- 11th in average bat speed (71.8 MPH)
- 17th in fast-swing rate (21.2%)
- 28th in squared up percentage (on contact) (30.6%)
- 6th in average swing length (7.1 feet)
Here’s how the Royals’ hitters individually have fared this season in their bat tracking metrics.
Renfroe, Vinnie, Bobby, MJ, and Salvy have all demonstrated above-average bat speed this season. Vinnie, Bobby, MJ, and Salvy have also produced solid squared-up rates with that fast bat speed. On the other hand, Renfroe hasn’t, as demonstrated by his 20.6% squared-up rate, the third-worst mark on the team, behind only Isbel and Canha.
On the flip side, Tyler Tolbert, Freddy Fermin, and Cavan Biggio have produced lackluster bat speed rates (under 70 MPH). Massey isn’t relatively lackluster, but it’s still below average at 70.1 MPH. He also has the third-lowest fast swing rate at 4.2%. That said, his swing length is relatively short (6.8 feet, tied with Biggio), and his squared-up rate is in the middle of the pack (30.5%).
Now, let’s take a look at the Royals’ qualified hitters a season ago and their bat tracking data.
There’s been some bat speed regression from Renfroe (1 MPH), Bobby (1.1 MPH), and Salvy (1.2 MPH). That said, we have seen improvements from Vinnie (2.4 MPH) and Maikel (0.4 MPH). That said, both hitters still have lower squared-up rates against fastball pitches this season compared to a year ago, so the changes have not yet produced results.
Lastly, here’s how the Royals as a team fared in bat tracking categories in 2024 via Savant.
Here’s how the rankings break down from a season ago:
- 7th in average bat speed (72 MPH)
- 9th in fast-swing rate (25.7%)
- 9th in squared up percentage (on contact) (34.3%)
- 6th in average swing length (7.0 feet)
The Royals were much better in terms of swinging faster and squaring up more often against fastballs last year compared to this season. That said, there is no egregious difference between the two years, except for the squared-up percentage (a difference of 19 spots in rankings).
I’m not sure what we can take away from this bat-tracking data against fastball pitches just yet. After all, this data can be interpreted in various ways, especially so early in the year. It’s far too early a sample size to say certain Royals hitters have truly regressed in their swing skills.
Nonetheless, the bat tracking data suggests that the Royals’ hitters possess the physical tools and skill set to produce significantly better results at the plate for the remainder of the season.
Thus, pressing less at the plate, better game planning, and honing their pitch recognition at the plate may be the strategies they need to turn things around and return to their offensive form of a year ago.
Of course, that’s always easier said than done.
Photo Credit: Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images