The Royals played their Spring Breakout game against the Diamondbacks on Friday and split-squad contests on Saturday against the Reds and Guardians, respectively. Thus, I thought it appropriate to award some pitching performance stars from those three games.
First Star: Frank Mozzicato (2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 2 K)-March 14th
I discussed this in the Spring Breakout post, but one could argue that Mozzicato was the Royals’ top performer in the prospect showcase.
Mozzicato’s four-seamer averaged 92.4 MPH against the Diamondbacks, a significant increase from the sub-90 MPH reports in Quad Cities a season ago. In addition to better velocity, the pitch had a zone rate of 69.2%, a chase rate of 50%, a whiff rate of 37.5%, and a contact xwOBA of .185. Thus, not only did it generate strikes and swings-and-misses, but the pitch also didn’t allow much productive contact. Therefore, it’s unsurprising that the pitch had a tjStuff+ and 68 grade on Friday.
The Royals’ 2021 first-round pick flooded the zone with all his offerings on Friday. The strategy was not a bad idea, considering his overall repertoire produced a tjStuff+ of 108.
Mozzicato lived a bit too much in the middle of the zone against Arizona and got away with it, as Diamondbacks hitters were a bit passive against him (notice all the called strikes in the middle of the strike zone). With more scouting and against a more consistent level of competition (the Spring Breakout teams comprise a mix of prospects across a club’s system), it’s likely that opposing hitters would do more damage against Mozzicato if he lived in the middle as much as he did on Friday.
Nonetheless, considering walks have been an issue for Mozzicato in the past (14.5% walk rate in High-A last year), it was nice to see him attack the zone and trust his stuff, which was thriving on Friday. Scouts have always remarked highly about the movement of his pitches, so the added velocity should make his repertoire even more effective (which in turn should help him produce better results, especially in terms of strikeouts).
The 21-year-old has recently fallen behind other pitching prospects in the Royals system, such as Ben Kudrna (also drafted in 2021), Steven Zobac, and Noah Cameron. It would be nice if Mozzicato could close the gap between him and those other pitching prospects in 2025.
Second Star: Kris Bubic (3.1 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 K)-March 15th
There’s been a lot of discussion about the battle for the No. 5 spot in the Royals rotation this spring. Initially, it looked to be a battle between Bubic and Alec Marsh. However, Marsh’s arm issues this spring have turned into a contest between Bubic and Daniel Lynch IV.
Lynch got off to a better start this spring, but it seems like Bubic may have solidified his spot in the rotation in perhaps one of his final tuneups of the Cactus League season.
His numbers against the 2024 AL Central champs were solid. He gave up no runs and struck out five in 3.1 innings. Furthermore, the pitch movement on his five-pitch mix demonstrated that the Royals need regular starter innings from him this season.
Bubic produced an overall tjStuff+ of 102, with two of his pitches sporting 60 or higher grades (four-seamer and changeup) and two sporting grades over 50 (cutter and slider). His sinker was the only pitch rated as subpar, as it had a 92 tjStuff+ and 44 grade. However, he only threw the pitch 7.6% of the time, the lowest usage of any of his offerings on Friday.
It’s okay to have one subpar pitch in one’s repertoire (especially if they have more than three offerings). It’s essential, though, to not utilize it too much, and that’s what Bubic did on Friday against Cleveland. That should give Royals fans hope that he’s adjusting his pitch mix to move effectively from the bullpen to the rotation in 2025.
Regarding his location, Bubic lived more down in the zone than typical, especially with his four-seamer.
That was an interesting approach, especially against a team that thrives on making contact like the Guardians. However, it proved effective, as Bubic limited hard hits. His average exit velocity on batted balls allowed was 91.7 MPH. Comparatively, Triston McKenzie, the Guardians’ starter, sported a 95 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls allowed.
Bubic’s ability to adjust his offerings based on lineup command should help him be effective as a starter not just this season but also in the long term.
Third Star: Michael Lorenzen (4 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 4 K)-March 15th
It was a nice tuneup for Lorenzen on Saturday against the Reds, even though he gave up two runs in four innings. His stuff overall wasn’t eye-popping, but he produced a Seth Lugo performance in that he sported decent movement and a wide variety of offerings against the Reds.
Lorenzen’s only offering with a grade over 50 was his changeup, and his only pitch with a tjStuff+ over 100 was his sweeper. However, he still produced an overall tjStuff+ of 97, which is serviceable for a pitcher with six offerings, all with a usage rate over 10%. Even though his stuff was rated as slightly below average on Saturday, he still produced an overall zone rate of 53.3% and a whiff rate of 36.7%. That’s more than good enough for a No. 4 starter in the rotation.
Regarding his command, Lorenzen threw a bit too much in the middle against Cincinnati, especially with his sweeper. That explains why he allowed a contact xwOBA of .334 and four hits. However, I appreciated him intentionally flooding the strike zone and forcing Reds hitters to beat him.
On a positive note, he did locate his fastball pitches more on the edges, which is a recipe for success since it doesn’t sport elite movement or velocity. When the fastball found more of the zone’s middle, hitters were more successful. Thus, Lorenzen’s command and the variety of his repertoire will be essential to watch in 2025.
Due to that diverse pitch mix and ability to throw strikes, it’s possible that Lorenzen could do in 2025 what Lugo did in 2024, albeit to a lesser level (I don’t think Lorenzen will be a Cy Young finalist).
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