At the start of Spring Training at the end of February, I shared my initial predictions for the Royals’ Opening Day roster. Now that we are a couple of weeks into the Cactus League season (with 19 games of Spring Training game data), I figured it would be time to re-examine the roster and determine if any changes would be necessary from my initial projections.
In this post, I will unveil my predicted Royals 26-man Opening Day roster, which includes the starting lineup, bench, starting rotation, and bullpen.
There are not many changes from my post back in February, which is nice to say since that hasn’t always been the case with Royals squads in previous Spring Training campaigns (and that’s not a good thing). Furthermore, we have seen more roster movement lately regarding the Royals’ non-roster invitees, which makes the Opening Day roster outlook even more transparent.
Conversely, I wanted to highlight those changes and what certain players did to earn spots on the Opening Day roster (and perhaps what players did to lose spots from my initial prediction).
Projected Starting Lineup
- Jonathan India, 2B
- Bobby Witt Jr., SS
- Vinnie Pasquantino, 1B
- Salvador Perez, C
- Michael Massey, DH
- MJ Melendez, LF
- Hunter Renfroe, RF
- Maikel Garcia, 3B
- Kyle Isbel, CF
From my last prediction, there are no changes to the starting lineup. At this point, the only change would be if an injury happened to any of the nine players listed above or if the Royals swung some trade by Opening Day (more unlikely).
Today, the Royals did get an injury scare to Witt, who was plunked in his forearm by an Andres Munoz fastball. Thankfully, X-rays came back negative.
There could be changes in the positions with the nine above. It wouldn’t be surprising if Massey and India switched positions, or we see Massey in LF, MJ in RF, and Renfroe at DH. Regardless, expect this nine and this batting order on March 27th at Kauffman Stadium against the Cleveland Guardians.
Projected Bench
- Freddy Fermin, C
- Cavan Biggio, UTL
- Nick Loftin, UTL
- Nelson Velazquez, OF
There has been plenty of buzz around Jac Caglianone this spring, and rightfully so. In 14 AB, he is hitting .500 with a 1.874 OPS and has collected three home runs and five RBI. Additionally, he has hit the ball with absolute authority this spring, as evidenced by his latest 114.6 MPH EV home run.
Even though Jac hype is in full force, Royals fans shouldn’t expect him in Kansas City on March 27th.
While he has been exciting in Arizona, Cags hasn’t played beyond High-A ball as a professional yet. Even Witt had time in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha before matriculating to Kansas City. Furthermore, Royals GM JJ Picollo probably doesn’t want to start his service time clock too soon, as they did with Witt in 2022 when they promoted him to the Majors on Opening Day.
The Royals’ aggressiveness in promoting Witt worked out due to the extension the Royals shortstop signed last offseason. However, the early promotion cost the Royals a year of service time with Witt (due to him qualifying for Super 2 status). If the Royals pull a similarly aggressive move with Cags, it’s unlikely that they will get him to sign an extension as early in his career as Witt. Thus, fans shouldn’t expect Cags to get promoted until late August or early September at the soonest (and that’s the best-case scenario).
The only change I had here was substituting Joey Wiemer with Nick Loftin.
Wiemer’s OPS is decent at .748, but he’s hitting .217 and has struck out eight times in 23 at-bats. While he has five walks, the outfielder’s contact issues this spring could result in him starting in Omaha to work on that contact ability and decision-making. The former Brewer and Red has still been solid defensively, but the Royals have been working Maikel Garcia a lot this spring in center field. Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Garcia start the season as the Royals’ center fielder against left-handed starting pitchers as Wiemer works on things in Triple-A.
Loftin takes Wiemer’s spot and offers manager Matt Quatraro more versatility position-wise. Loftin can play every infield position and the corner outfield spots. He has also been strong at the plate this spring, hitting .429 with a 1.091 OPS and 0.80 BB/K ratio in 21 at-bats. The former Baylor product’s high-contact approach could be a better fit off the bench for the Royals than the more whiff-prone Wiemer.
Projected Rotation
- Cole Ragans, LHP
- Seth Lugo, RHP
- Michael Wacha, RHP
- Michael Lorenzen, RHP
- Kris Bubic, LHP
Bubic was seen as the favorite to win the fifth spot in the Royals rotation, and I think that will still happen, even though the former Stanford product has had some ups and downs this spring in his return to starting pitching.
In four games (three starts) and 9.2 IP, he has a 5.59 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 9.2 IP. He’s given up a lot of hits (10), but he has only walked two and struck out eight (a 4.00 K/BB ratio). Bubic has also demonstrated solid movement overall from his five-pitch mix, as evidenced in his short-form pitch movement plot this spring via TJ Stats.
This spring, he has sported four pitches with tjStuff+ marks over 100 and grades over 50. That’s the kind of repertoire one would want to see from an effective No. 5 starter.
Bubic still needs to iron out his command, which has led to the high number of hits allowed and an inflated ERA. In Spring Training, though, it’s better to see stuff over command from a pitcher, especially since command can get ironed out with more innings under a pitcher’s belt (which Bubic needs since he didn’t start any games with the Royals in 2025).
Since Bubic seems to be in the driver’s seat for the fifth spot, the Royals optioned Noah Cameron to Minor League camp. The Cameron move was part of a slew of Minor League transactions by the Royals on March 10th.
The St. Joseph, Missouri product posted solid numbers this spring in his first Cactus League campaign as part of the 40-man roster.
In four games and 10 IP, he posted a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 7.00 K/BB ratio. While the results were good enough, his stuff still needs work. That was especially true with his four-seam fastball, which was rated subpar this spring via TJ Stats.
Cameron’s four-seamer had an 85 tjStuff+ and 31 grade, his worst marks in those categories of any of his four offerings. His secondary pitches showcased solid movement; all four offerings sported grades over 50.
However, for Cameron to see some long-term success as a starter at the MLB level, he will need to tweak some of the movement on his four-seamer in Omaha so it can be a more efficient offering. If that happens, he will see some starts with the Royals in 2025 and beyond.
Projected Bullpen
- Lucas Erceg, CL
- Carlos Estevez, CL
- Hunter Harvey, SU
- John Schreiber, MR
- Angel Zerpa, MR
- Chris Stratton, MR
- Daniel Lynch IV, MR
- Carlos Hernandez, LR
I added Lynch to the Opening Day roster, even though he still has a Minor League option. My main reason for doing this is that Lynch has been stellar in Cactus League play this spring.
In four games (three starts) and 10 IP, Lynch has a 1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, and nine strikeouts to zero walks. The former Virginia product has been an efficient pillar of command this spring. That effectiveness will likely earn him one of the final spots in the Royals Opening Day bullpen.
Thus, two pitchers could be on the chopping block: Sam Long and Stratton. Neither pitcher has a Minor League option.
My gut was to omit Long, which means he will be designated for assignment (and likely picked up by another club). The numbers haven’t been good for Long this spring. In three outings and 2.2 IP, he has a 10.13 ERA, 2.25 WHIP and hasn’t struck out a single batter. The Royals also have lefty Angel Zerpa, in addition to Lynch, in the bullpen. I’m not sure Kansas City needs a third lefty, especially one who has had an up-and-down MLB career like Long.
On a positive note, Long’s stuff hasn’t been bad, which makes the results we have seen from him this spring more tolerable.
The former Sac State product has two pitches (a four-seamer and splitter) with grades of 50 or higher, and his slider has a tjStuff+ of 100. Command, not stuff, has always been the issue with Long. Thankfully, his growth in command last year was a big reason why he became such a key part of the Royals bullpen in 2024.
What happens if Long’s control issues continue for the remainder of Cactus League play? Well, the Royals could cut their losses sooner rather than later. Long would be a lot cheaper (pre-arbitration) to part ways with than Stratton, who is owed $4.5 million in 2025.
Unfortunately, Stratton’s results aren’t good either.
In five appearances and 5.1 IP, he has a 6.75 ERA and 1.88 WHIP. However, his curveball and changeup have profiled as solid offerings movement-wise via TJ Stats with 66 and 54 grades, respectively.
Even though Stratton has been much worse in Kansas City than Long, I think the Royals will prefer Stratton’s veteran presence and ability to throw two pitches effectively. Plus, it’s hard to see the Royals eat all $4.5 million of his deal before he’s even thrown a pitch in the regular season.
I want to return to Lynch because he’s primarily been used as a starter this spring. That usage was a big reason I thought he would start the year in Omaha (to give the Storm Chasers starting depth). However, I think the Royals like Lynch a lot and will put him in the bullpen to start the year if he doesn’t capture the fifth rotation spot from Bubic.
The bullpen is a better fit for Lynch in the long term, anyway.
First off, he succeeded in the bullpen in 2024. As a starter last year, he posted a 6.43 ERA, 6.17 FIP, and 2.00 K/BB ratio in 14 IP. As a reliever in 29.1 IP? He sported a 1.84 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and 3.30 K/BB ratio. Lynch saved his career in Kansas City by moving to the bullpen.
Furthermore, Lynch’s pitch performance this spring hasn’t been impressive movement-wise, according to TJ Stats. That gives him a shaky outlook as a starter in 2025.
His changeup has been solid with a 102 tjStuff+ and 60 grade. Conversely, all of his other offerings have been mediocre movement-wise. Lynch’s four-seamer was only two points better than Cameron’s regarding tjStuff+ and grade. Furthermore, of his six pitches, four of his offerings have sported grades under 40. That makes his repertoire susceptible to getting crushed if he’s not locating effectively.
Lynch should maximize this repertoire in 1-2 inning stints as a reliever rather than 4-6 inning ones as a starting pitcher. The Royals likely know this. Thus, he will be in the Royals bullpen and not rotation (or Omaha rotation) on Opening Day.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Nick Tre. Smith
sign whit Merrifield
Eh…I think the Royals (and the 29 other MLB teams) are good.