The Royals have split their last two Cactus League contests in Surprise. On Sunday, it was all smiles for Royals fans as Kansas City beat the Brewers 5-2, and fans saw Jac Caglianone smash the ball at the plate.
It was tougher on Monday afternoon as the rival Guardians kept the Royals bats in check and raced off to an early 5-0 lead. Kansas City lost to Cleveland 5-2, bringing their Cactus League record to 10-7 for the season.
This post will examine the three Royals’ standout pitching performances based on tjStuff+ metrics and grades. From now on, I will utilize TJ Stats’ Daily Summary app, which requires a subscription. As stated on this blog, TJ Stats’ Patreon is well worth the subscription, especially considering all the tools he offers for baseball diehards.
Let’s award the Royals pitchers three stars based on their performance in the past two games and consider what this means regarding their roster status for the 2025 season.
First Star: Junior Fernandez (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 K)-March 9th
I don’t think Fernandez is a candidate to make the Opening Day roster due to the bullpen crunch with Carlos Hernandez, Chris Stratton, and Sam Long, who are out of minor-league options. Conversely, Fernandez’s stuff looks better with each outing, and that’s getting hard to ignore.
On Sunday, against the Brewers, Fernandez’s four-seamer thrived, sporting a 110 tjStuff+, a 69 grade, a 75% zone percentage, and a whiff rate of 33.3%. It would be nice to see more elevation with the four-seamer going forward, but it didn’t hurt him against Milwaukee due to the velocity (99.1 MPH average velocity) and movement.
Even though Fernandez will start the season in Omaha, he could be an early candidate for a callup to Kansas City due to the sheer stuff he possesses. While the command still needs work, he’s shoring it up with each outing, making his potent four-pitch mix (which had three above-average rated pitches via tjStuff+ on Sunday) even more effective.
Second Star: Andrew Hoffmann (1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K)-March 10th
Hoffmann isn’t on the 40-man roster even though he’s been in the Royals organization since 2022, when he came over from Atlanta in the Drew Waters trade (along with CJ Alexander, who’s now with the Athletics). The 25-year-old former 12th-round pick of the Braves had a rough season in Omaha in 2024, as he gave up a 6.82 ERA and 1.76 WHIP in 66 IP with the Storm Chasers. He still received a non-roster invite to Spring Training, and he’s shown some promise in a short sample.
His ERA is high at 6.00, but that’s primarily due to the two home runs allowed in six innings of work this spring. His WHIP is more respectable at 1.17 and has nine strikeouts to zero walks. On Monday, he thrived with his changeup and slider, posting tjStuff+ marks of 111 and 100, respectively, along with Zone percentages of 66.7% and 50%.
His CSW marks were also strong on the changeup and slider. That made up for his four-seamer, which profiled as a slightly below-average pitch (96 tjStuff+) against Cleveland.
Hoffmann has to do something about that four-seamer, which had a zero CSW and 40% Strike% on 31.2% usage on Monday. If the four-seamer can grade a little closer to average (47 currently), he could see a bounce back in 2025 in Omaha, especially since his slider and changeup are solid offerings.
If Hoffmann makes that adjustment, he could be next offseason’s Evan Sisk, who bounced back in 2024 after a rough 2023 in Omaha.
Third Star: Austin Cox (1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K)-March 9th
Cox pitched for the Royals in 2023 and put up decent stats (albeit for a 56-106 club).
In 24 outings and 35.2 IP, he posted a 4.54 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. However, he tore his ACL at the end of the 2023 season and couldn’t get an opportunity with the Major League club in 2024. In 38 outings and 55 IP with the Storm Chasers, he posted a 4.25 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. He became a Minor League free agent this offseason, but he returned to the Royals on a Minor League deal.
Cox has not had great numbers this spring, as he has a 7.71 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in 4.2 IP in Cactus League play. However, he had his best spring outing on Sunday, with his cutter standing out. He threw the pitch 45.5% of the time against Milwaukee, and it sported a tjStuff+ of 106, a 63 grade, and a whiff rate of 50%. The cutter helped elevate his arsenal on Sunday, as evidenced by his 102 tjStuff+ overall.
In addition to Cox’s strong movement on the cutter, he demonstrated excellent command of his 11 pitches against the Brewers, as evidenced by his pitch type and description charts via Savant.
The former Mercer product did a solid job of avoiding the middle of the strike zone and living on the edges, which led to stellar results (no hits, runs, or walks). If Cox wants to earn a return to the Royals bullpen in 2025, he must show this kind of command in Omaha.
Photo Credit: Jason Hanna/ Kansas City Royals
A little off the pitching analysis… Here’s an idea: we send a rear of the rotation pitcher and a couple of players (Renfroe, Massey, Pratto) to Baltimore for Heston Kjerstad and Ramon Urrias? Maybe a third player who might come up midseason or a semi-certsin prospect if Massey goes. Urrias can hit for serviceable average, can field 3b very well and displays moderate HR power. Kjerstad being a left bat could be very useful and a literal offensive upgrade on all three fields.