Regarding the top of the Royals lineup, it seems things should be pretty easy to predict. Jonathan India should be the Royals’ regular leadoff hitter. Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez will be the batting order’s No. 2-4 hitters. However, after that, there are plenty of question marks, as it is likely that manager Matt Quatraro will mix and match from game to game, depending on the pitcher.
Hunter Renfroe is a Royals veteran who is a question mark in Spring Training. The 33-year-old outfielder signed a one-year deal with a player option last offseason and is coming off one of the roughest seasons of his career.
Due to various injuries, Renfroe only played 120 games, his lowest number in a non-Covid season since 2018 when he was with the Padres. In addition to the high number of games missed, he also posted paltry numbers at the plate.
In 424 plate appearances, he hit .229 with a .689 OPS. He also hit 15 home runs, scored 44 runs, collected 52 RBI, and posted a wRC+ of 92 and fWAR of -0.1. Thus, it’s unsurprising that he was used sparingly in the postseason and opted to stay in Kansas City this offseason, as it was unlikely that he would receive anything in free agency close to what his option would guarantee this season ($7.5 million, to be specific).
Roster Resource is now projecting Renfroe to be the Royals’ regular right fielder. MJ Melendez is predicted to play in LF, and Kyle Isbel in CF against right-handed starting pitchers. Nelson Velazquez and Nick Loftin are projected to be in the mix against lefties. However, in the offseason, there was some talk that if the Royals had signed Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar (or acquired Starling Marte from the Mets), Renfroe would likely platoon in RF with Melendez.
It’s hard to project what Renfroe’s exact role in 2025 will be in Kansas City. Unless the Royals make a trade, Renfroe will likely be starting in right field at Kauffman on March 27th against the Guardians. Conversely, it doesn’t necessarily seem like the Royals have a ton of confidence in Renfroe to be a regular producer this season, which makes him susceptible to being traded or designated for assignment this year if he continues to regress at the plate.
Thus, let’s examine Renfroe’s outlook for 2025, what he can bring to the Royals, and what Kansas City may do if he can’t improve upon his mediocre campaign last season.
Power Decline a Concern for Renfroe
Renfroe was acquired last offseason to provide some thump in the middle of the batting order.
Before 2024, the 33-year-old Mississippi State product had hit 20 or more home runs every season from 2017 to 2023 (except 2020, which was only a 60-game season due to COVID). Even though Kauffman suppresses home runs a bit, it profiles overall as a hitter-friendly ballpark via Statcast. Hence, it was expected that Renfroe could still be a 20+ HR threat at the K and collect more doubles due to the spacious home field grounds.
Unfortunately, the power didn’t materialize in Renfroe’s first season in Kansas City. He only hit 15 home runs, and his ISO went from .183 in 2023 with the Angels and Reds to .164 with the Royals. His Power+ via PLV also hovered just above the 25th percentile for the year, with only a couple of points midseason, where it got close to the league average.
Regarding batted-ball metrics, Renfroe did see some slight improvement in his hard-contact ability.
His barrel rate improved to 6.6%, and his hard-hit rate improved to 39.4%, with gains of 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. However, his xwOBA was only .291, an 11-point negative difference from his actual wOBA (.302), and his LA Sweet Spot% of 28.8% was also a 0.7% decline from 2023.
His TJ Statcard below provides a full breakdown of his Statcast data and how he trended in wOBA throughout the season.
Even though Renfroe’s power has declined slightly in the past two seasons, his plate discipline has improved.
His 19.8% K% last year was the first time under 20% since his rookie season in 2016. He also sported a 0.43 BB/K ratio, which is a career-best. Lastly, via his Process+ data, he produced solid outcomes in decision-making and contact last season, even though the lack of power dragged down his overall Process+ profile (though he did see a significant nosedive in contact and power at the end of the year).
Therefore, there are some signs for Royals fans to be optimistic about Renfroe for 2025. His process at the plate was better than it had been in the past, and all the nagging injuries he dealt with last season probably contributed to his power and batted-ball regression.
At the same time, he’s 33 years old and not exactly a lithe athlete.
His sprint speed ranked in the 32nd percentile, and his lack of range in the outfield was evident last year by his -7 OAA (bottom 7th percentile). Renfroe still has a cannon for an arm, which gives him a modicum of defensive value (86th percentile arm value and 91st percentile arm strength). That said, his athletic profile could make him more susceptible to nagging injuries continuing to dog him in 2025, stunting his fielding, baserunning, and power at the plate.
What Are the Other Options in Right Field?
Dairon Blanco and Velazquez are battling for spots on the Opening Day roster, and they seem to be the ones who could immediately fill in for Renfroe if he falters.
Blanco is recovering from an Achilles heel injury, but according to David Lesky of “Inside the Crown,” he may return soon. Blanco’s profile is quite similar batted-ball-wise to Renfroe’s. However, the main difference with Blanco is his elite speed and baserunning, as he stole 31 bases a year ago despite collecting only 132 plate appearances.
As for Velazquez, he offers the same kind of plate discipline to Renfroe and is coming off a regression in power in 2024. However, Velazquez is cheaper than Renfroe and holds a longer-term upside, as the Puerto Rican-born outfielder is 25 years old.
If the Royals are going all-in on “platooning,” it could make sense for them to play Massey, Isbel, and Melendez in the outfield (from LF to RF) against righties and then have Blanco, Maikel Garcia, and Velazquez against lefties (from LF to RF). That would leave Renfroe as maybe a DH (or he and Velazquez could switch as RF and DH) unless Salvy needs that spot due to a day off behind the plate.
If the Royals want to keep Melendez in LF and want more positional and defensive flexibility, they could opt for Drew Waters and Tyler Gentry in RF instead of Renfroe (or Velazquez, who would be DFA’d in this scenario due to his lack of Minor League options). However, Gentry and Waters have major swing-and-miss issues and have struggled in that area this spring.
Loftin could also be in the mix for outfield work if Renfroe were no longer in Kansas City, though he would probably see more time in the infield due to his experience there in the Minors Leagues. Another longshot candidate is Nick Pratto, who is seeing more time in Arizona in the outfield, as he is also out of Minor League options. They need to decide on his future with the Royals by Opening Day, and based on his Triple-A metrics last year, it’s likely that he won’t be with the organization for much longer.
Of course, none of those options are ideal. However, they could help the Royals temporarily hold the fort in RF until they can make a more major outfield acquisition (such as Marte or Taylor Ward from the Angels).
Can Renfroe Be Dealt?
Right now, Renfroe’s Spring Training numbers are serviceable. In five games and nine plate appearances, he’s slashing .222/.417/.667 with a .455 wOBA, a home run, and two RBI. He’s proving to be the same player in the Cactus League that he’s been for his career: some on-base and slugging potential at the expense of a low batting average.
That profile could be valuable, especially in a ballpark that’s more hitter-friendly for home runs. One option that could fit the bill would be the Yankees, as Renfroe would have had 18 home runs last year if he had played all his games in Yankee Stadium. The Yankees may need some pop in DH and outfield, especially with Giancarlo Stanton expected to begin the season on the IL.
In addition, the Yankees may need pitching, as ace Gerrit Cole has been dealing with some elbow issues this spring. He has been shut down for now and will undergo diagnostic testing to determine his return timetable (and whether or not he will need surgery).
My friend and On the Clock podcast host Jared Perkins proposed that the Royals and Yankees could kill multiple birds with one stone. The Royals have an excess of pitching right now (crazy to think). Thus, JJ Picollo could package someone like Alec Marsh and Renfroe for a prospect package to help the Royals dump Renfroe’s salary. As a result, the Yankees get some insurance for Cole and Stanton.
Royals fans would be good with trading Renfroe to get rid of his contract (which could open up more contract absorption in another deal for Marte or Ward, etc.). Conversely, losing Marsh or another young pitcher (Noah Cameron or Steven Zobac could be in the mix) could be a tough pill to swallow, especially considering the progress young pitchers have made in this system under the new regime.
Would Picollo and the Royals be open to trading away a young pitcher with Renfroe to give themselves more flexibility to add another outfielder during the season (or perhaps by Opening Day)? Or will they stick with Renfroe for now, hoping he can provide the production they need, even if it is in more of a semi-regular role?
Royals fans will find out the answer to that question in the next couple of weeks.
Photo Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Renfroe is a bottom of the order bat. They should bundle him up with Pratto and a starting pitcher and trade him to the yankees for a solid third baseman bat. Waters can be a plug-in replacement for Renfroe. We meed to figure out if we are going to fish, or cut bait with him.
I would agree. I hope the Royals have him on the Hunter Dozier plan where they maybe give him a shot for a month or so and cut bait if he does again what he did in 2024. The good thing about Sherman is that he seems more willing to eat money if the player is providing negative value (which I don’t think was the case during the David Glass years).
I know to keep spring training hype with a grain of salt, but would be interested to hear your thoughts on how Cags’ spring he’s having affects his timeline. Do you think he gets to Kaufmann for even a little cup of coffee by the end of this year?
I think sometime in August or September makes sense. He hasn’t played above High A and even Bobby played in AA and AAA. Could see him move mid year from AA to AAA mid year and then get that late season call up