On Saturday night, the Royals had a tough one, as the Kansas City pitching staff allowed 11 runs to the Chicago Cubs (the game was entering the ninth at the time of this post and ended up being the final number in an 11-1 loss).
Even though pessimistic Royals fans may be concerned about such a rough performance, it is Spring Training, which means that results continually have to be taken with a grain of salt. After all, nobody typically remembers who had the best record in the Cactus League.
While results don’t matter as much, paying attention to stuff and trends in the pitch quality from Royals pitchers throughout the spring is still essential. These posts aim to identify which Royals pitchers this spring are showing progress or potential with their pitch quality and arsenal. That is why I only share the pitch plots from TJ Stats rather than the daily summaries, as the latter can tempt fans to focus a little too much on the results rather than the process.
Let’s highlight the three-star pitch plot performers from Saturday’s Cactus League outing against the Cubs.
One Star: Cole Ragans (2.1 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 4 K)
When one looks at Ragans’ box score line, it’s easy for Royals fans to be concerned. After all, seven earned runs and two home runs in less than three innings of work certainly isn’t an outing to be proud of. However, despite the lackluster numbers, Royals fans shouldn’t panic about the Royals ace’s performance against the Cubs on Saturday.
For starters, Ragans is still ironing things out with his command. His fastball and changeup caught too much of the zone, which is pretty atypical. As a result of the questionable command on the two offerings, hitters took advantage (as seen in his pitch description and pitch type charts via Savant).
Ragans’ command will improve as he throws more pitches and collects more innings in Arizona. Conversely, his stuff rated incredibly well on Saturday, which should help Royals fans take a breath about Ragans’ outlook for 2025.
All five of Ragans’ pitches sported a tjStuff+ of 100 or higher with his slider (107), changeup (106), and cutter (108) sporting marks over 105. He still generated high spin on his pitches against the Cubs, with his four-seamer, slider, and cutter sporting RPM marks over 2,400. His four-seamer also displayed good velocity at 96 MPH and iVB at 17.2.
If the command on the four-seamer returns and he maintains that velocity and vertical movement, his four-seamer could be even more effective in 2025.
Two Stars: Steven Zobac (2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K)
Zobac has had an underrated Cactus League campaign for Kansas City. In four innings pitched, he has a 2.25 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Furthermore, he has collected seven strikeouts while only walking two in his two outings this spring in Arizona.
On Saturday, the former University of California product had the most impressive outing of any Royals pitcher, pitching two innings of shutout ball (albeit when the game was out of hand). He also demonstrated excellent stuff on his four-pitch mix, with all of his offerings sporting a tjStuff+ over 100.
His four-seamer was the most impressive pitch of the evening. He threw the pitch 17 times, a 59% usage rate. He averaged 94.2 MPH on the pitch and sported a 17.9 iVB and spin of 2,489 RPM. His grade on the pitch was 59, which was slightly better than the grades of his cutter (58) and changeup (57), which he threw 17% and 10% of the time, respectively.
Zobac did luck out a bit as he elevated the four-seamer well but still left it in hittable areas of the strike zone. Better-quality hitters would likely’ve done more damage against Zobac.
Still, for his first Spring Training, Zobac has shown a lot of promise and is making his case to be added to the 40-man roster next offseason.
Three Stars: Luinder Avila (2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 4 K)
Avila had another solid outing on Saturday, thus proving that the Royals were correct in adding him to the 40-man roster this offseason. The Venezuelan-born pitcher did give up a run on two hits in two innings of work. However, he also struck out four batters and only walked one.
The 23-year-old righty leaned heavier on his curve and four-seamer in this outing, as he threw both pitches a combined 21 times (a 70% usage). The curve showed excellent movement, with 11.8 inches of glove-side movement and a spin rate of 2,877 RPM. Thus, it’s unsurprising that the pitch sported a 103 tjStuff+ and 56 grade against the Cubs.
Like many Royals pitchers on Saturday, command was an issue for Avila. Based on the pitch chart data, he didn’t quite get away with it as much as Zobac did, but he certainly was a little more successful than Ragans when it came to preventing base hits.
I still think it’s a long shot that Avila makes the Opening Day roster, especially since he only has one outing above Double-A entering this season. That said, it’s clear that he possesses one excellent pitch (the curve), and even though his four-seamer (46) and sinker (44) didn’t grade well on Saturday, they at least showed solid velocity at 96.4 MPH and 95.1 MPH, respectively.
With a bit of refinement, he could help improve the quality of his fastball offerings in Triple-A Omaha, making him not only dominant in Triple-A but also eligible for a mid-season callup in July or August.
Photo Credit: Norm Hall | MLB Photos via Getty Images