I started this particular Spring-Training-focused series a couple of games ago and decided to create another “three-star” pitch plot analysis for the Royals’ last two Spring Training games. After beating the Rangers on Tuesday for their third Cactus League game of the season, the Royals finally dropped their first contest in Arizona this spring.
Even though the Royals went 1-1 from February 25th to the 26th, there were some intriguing pitching performances over the two-game sample. Thus, let’s look at the Royals’ “three-star” pitching performances, looking solely at pitch quality data via TJ Stats’ Spring Training pitch plots.
One Star: Andrew Hoffmann (1 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K)-Feb. 25
Hoffman gave up a run against Texas while closing things out in the ninth. However, there were a lot of positives to take away from his outing on Tuesday, even though he allowed two hits in an inning of work.
The most eye-popping metric from Hoffman’s performance was the 109 tjStuff+ on his changeup. He threw the pitch 10 times (33% usage), and it was a low spin offering at 1,353 RPM. At the surface level, that doesn’t seem impressive. However, it sports a tremendous horizontal break with 8.5 inches of sideways run. The changeup movement mirrors the four-seamer on a horizontal end, which helps make the four-seamer more effective, even with its much lower tjStuff+ rating (87).
Hoffman, who was also acquired from Atlanta in the Drew Waters trade in 2022, has primarily been in Omaha the past two years and isn’t on the 40-man roster. That said, if he continues to develop the quality of these three pitches (especially four-seam quality), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Hoffman gain more favor within the Royals organization in 2025 (setting himself up for a possible call-up).
Two Stars: Junior Fernandez (1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K)-Feb. 25
The surface-level metrics for Fernandez haven’t been good so far this spring, as he has gotten hit and given up plenty of runs in his first two Cactus League performances. The 27-year-old non-roster invitee has given up three runs on five hits and one walk in two IP. On a positive note, his pitch quality has profiled well despite the issues in command.
Fernandez’s fastball pitches have been eye-popping this spring with the Royals.
On Tuesday, he averaged 98.7 MPH with a 104 tjStuff+ on his sinker, which he threw 48% of the time. He only threw one four-seamer, but it averaged 98.1 MPH with a 100 tjStuff+. The changeup and slider were slightly below average offerings with 97 tjStuff+ marks. However, there was nearly a 10 MPH difference between his fastballs and his breaking and offspeed pitches against the Rangers.
Due to right shoulder-chain joint surgery, the Dominican-born pitch didn’t pitch much for the Chiba Lotte Marines last year (only two outings). He struggled in the Venezuelan Winter League, posting a 5.87 ERA with a 1.08 K/BB ratio in 15.1 IP. Thus, Fernandez may be working on getting back to speed right now in Arizona, which likely sets him up to start the season in Omaha.
Three Stars: Chris Stratton (1 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K)-Feb. 26
Stratton made his Spring Training debut on Wednesday and looked solid against the Rockies.
He struck out two hitters in an inning of work and showcased some excellent stuff with his breaking offerings. His curveball sported a 108 tjStuff+, and his slider had a 103 tjStuff+. Stratton’s breaking offerings were his best pitches last year on a quality end, but based on the TJ Stats data, his four-seamer left a bit to be desired.
Today’s quality on Stratton’s four-seamer (96 tjStuff+) and changeup (99 tjStuff+) mirrored what he did a season ago. Furthermore, the velocity (91.2 MPH) and spin rate (2,367 RPM) were slightly down from 2024. Granted, it’s his first outing, and he missed time down the stretch last year due to a right forearm flexor strain. Still, how his velocity and tjStuff+ fare this spring could determine Stratton’s outlook in the Royals bullpen in 2025 (it’s already on shaky ground).
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