The Royals will officially kick off their 2025 campaign with their first Spring Training game on Friday against the Texas Rangers (whose complex is also based out of Surprise). While Royals fans are certainly pumped for the game (and the start of this season), the team and players are also ready for live games to start, as demonstrated on social media today.
In one of my previous posts, I examined five hitters on the Royals’ 40-man roster who may be at a crossroads with the organization in 2025. In this post, I will look at five pitchers who may need a solid Spring Training campaign in Arizona to solidify their roster spots on Opening Day.
Daniel Lynch IV
Lynch arguably had his best season at the MLB level in 2024.
Even though he primarily moved to the bullpen and only threw 43.1 IP (in 16 appearances), he seemed to succeed in the role. He posted a 3.32 ERA, 14.4% K-BB%, and 0.99 WHIP, all career-best marks. Lynch certainly did his part in turning around the bullpen in September, as he and Kris Bubic provided plenty of shutdown outings as left-handed late-inning relievers.
At the same time, Lynch’s role for 2025 is a bit unclear.
Even though he found success as a reliever, it seems like JJ Picollo and Matt Quatraro will stretch out Lynch to be a starter this spring.
On the one hand, seeing him move off a role he was so successful at in 2024 isn’t enjoyable. Conversely, the Royals seem determined to build starting pitcher depth on the 40-man roster, and Lynch being stretched out as a starter is a nice contingency plan for the Royals if anything should happen to their Top-3 projected starters (Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha). Thus, with a Minor League option remaining, it makes sense for the Royals to continue to utilize Lynch as a starter for now, with the idea that he can transition to the bullpen later in the season if needed.
A concern I have with Lynch, though, is that his FIP wasn’t nearly as impressive as his ERA a season ago. His 4.41 FIP was 1.09 points higher than his ERA, and his xFIP was also one point higher. Furthermore, his TJ Stuff+ metrics weren’t precisely eye-popping despite his solid production in 2024.
As evidenced in the chart below, Lynch’s overall TJ Stuff+ was 95, which is below average, and only two pitches (changeup and slider) were above that 100 average threshold.
Lynch’s PLV demonstrated the same story, as he only sported two pitches that seemed to quantify as above-average offerings.
Royals fans should still be hopeful about Lynch, whether he’s utilized as a starter or reliever at the MLB level. Something clicked for him last year, and he’s riding a lot more confidence into 2025 than he did in any of his previous Spring Training appearances. However, if batted-ball luck (.207 BABIP) changes for Lynch in 2025, he could regress to what he did from 2021-2023, making him expendable on the Royals’ pitching staff.
Jonathan Bowlan
It seems like time is running out for Bowlan with the Royals organization. He was granted an extra Minor League option this offseason, so the Royals still can afford to be patient with him. However, at 28 years old, something needs to change with Bowlan if he wants to prove that he can pitch at the Major League level in Kansas City.
Bowlan was primarily utilized as a starter in Omaha, and the numbers were okay in 35 appearances with the Storm Chasers. In 104 IP, he posted a 4.67 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP. He showcased decent control with a 14.3% K-BB%, but he still struggled with the long ball, as evidenced by his 1.21 HR/9.
However, when looking at his batted-ball and Statcast metrics in Triple-A, the former Memphis Tiger demonstrated a lot of positives, as illustrated in the multiple red bars (which rank him in the upper percentiles) in his TJ Statcard.
Bowlan struggled to consistently find the strike zone (34th percentile zone rate), which led to a lackluster 26.1% CSW (26th percentile). Everything else was pretty solid, with Bowlan’s ability to minimize barrels (95th percentile) and maximize chases (92nd percentile) being the most noteworthy. In a more pitcher-friendly home run environment (Werner Park tends to be more hitter-friendly in that regard), Bowlan could thrive, though he should be utilized more sparingly and not as a true workhorse starter.
Bowlan has all the characteristics to be a sleeper pitcher for the Royals in 2025. He’s big (6’6, 240 pounds), and showcases a pretty diverse pitch arsenal, even if none of his pitches profile as “elite.” If given the opportunity, he could be a reliever who could succeed with the Royals in the middle innings or mop-up situations
Chris Stratton
Stratton exercised his $4.5 million player option this offseason, which guaranteed his return to Kansas City in 2025. That said, 2024 wasn’t an encouraging campaign for the 34-year-old reliever who has played in the Giants and Rangers organizations.
Stratton had the worst season of his career in Kansas City last year. In 58.1 IP, he posted a 5.55 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 4.3% K-BB%, and a -0.2 fWAR. Stratton was acquired by Picollo last offseason (with Will Smith) to help solve the Royals bullpen’s walk woes from 2023. Unfortunately, the veteran righty did little to solve that issue, as he posted a 12.8% BB%, the highest of his career.
Surprisingly, his TJ Stats profile suggests that he has the potential to bounce back, especially with a few well-rated pitches in his arsenal.
His curveball has a 109 TJ Stuff+, his sweeper has a 112 TJ Stuff+, and his slider has a 102 TJ Stuff+. Unfortunately, his fastball pitches rated pretty poorly via TJ Stuff+, with his four-seamer sporting a 96 rating and his sinker having a 93 rating.
PLV rated his sinker quality a little better with a 5.34 rating. Conversely, his four-seamer rated significantly worse in terms of PLV, which is not good considering it was his primary offering last season.
Can Stratton tweak his fastball shape or the pitch’s usage in 2025 to turn things around for him after a disappointing first season with the Royals? Perhaps, but he won’t have much time to do so, especially with other relievers breathing down his neck this spring.
Carlos Hernandez
Hernandez is out of Minor League options. Thus, this spring will be crucial for the Venezuelan righty.
On one end, the numbers have been meh for Hernandez throughout his five-year MLB tenure, as he sports a career ERA of 4.95 in 150 outings. That said, he did show some promise in 2024. In 30 IP, he posted a 3.30 ERA, 3.50 FIP, and 1.33 WHIP. Walks were still an issue, as he sported a 12.4% BB% and 8.5% K-BB%. However, his TJ Stuff metrics last year were quite impressive.
Hernandez sported four pitches above 100 in terms of TJ Stuff+ and a 106 overall TJ Stuff+, one of the best marks of any Royals pitcher in 2024. His four-seamer and slider proved to be his best pitches, with 108 and 107 TJ Stuff+ marks, respectively. PLV wasn’t as big a fan of his slider but still rated his four-seamer and knuckle curve positively.
Hernandez has the stuff to succeed as a Major League reliever, though his days as a late-inning, high-leverage arm may be over. Without any options, the Royals will probably do their best to give him every opportunity to earn a spot this spring. If he doesn’t perform in Cactus League play (or out of the gate in March/April), he’ll likely be in a different organization on Opening Day.
Angel Zerpa
After an inconsistent 2023 (4.85 ERA in 42.2 IP), Zerpa seemed to put it together a bit in his age-24 season. In 60 outings and 53.2 IP, Zerpa posted a 3.86 ERA, 3.97 FIP, and 1.45 WHIP. The Venezuelan lefty did have some struggles in the middle of the season, which earned him a demotion to Omaha. However, when he returned, he was excellent and thrived as a key reliever down the stretch and in the postseason.
Despite putting up much better numbers in September/October (1.22 FIP), the TJ Stuff+ metrics weren’t as impressive overall for Zerpa last year.
Zerpa only had two pitches rated above-average offerings via TJ Stuff+ (slider and curveball), and he struggled to get hitters to chase and whiff, as evidenced by his 19.8% chase rate and 16% chase rate. Zerpa did an excellent job pounding the strike zone (55.6%), but his performance outing to outing often hinged on batted-ball luck (.325).
PLV liked Zerpa’s sinker and slider combo but wasn’t keen on his four-seamer and changeup last season.
It’s easy to like Zerpa because he’s a pitcher who throws strikes, which is what you want from a reliever in the late innings. However, it feels like Zerpa is being a bit overhyped by some Royals fans.
Zerpa was the subject of some trade talks this offseason. While nothing was done before Spring Training, he should still be floated in talks, as his trade value may tumble in 2025 if the batted-ball luck on his sinker and slider changes.
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