Going into the offseason, it seemed like the Royals had three primary goals: acquire a leadoff hitter, improve the bullpen, and acquire a middle-of-the-order hitter.
Early in the offseason, GM JJ Picollo accomplished goal number one by trading pitcher Brady Singer to Cincinnati for second baseman and projected leadoff hitter Jonathan India.
On Wednesday, he bolstered the bullpen by signing former Angels and Phillies closer Carlos Estevez to a two-year guaranteed deal with an option for a third season.
Thus, Picollo has accomplished two of his three stated goals this winter.
Unfortunately, this offseason’s middle-of-the-order bat acquisition for the Royals hasn’t come to fruition. However, it’s not because of a lack of trying.
The Royals have been tied to many teams in possible trades and free agents who signed with other clubs.
There were rumors of potential trades to acquire third baseman Brett Baty and outfielder Starling Marte from the Mets during the Winter Meetings, but the talks seemed to cut off after the holidays. It also sounded like the Royals wanted to sign free-agent outfielder Anthony Santander, who obviously would’ve been an upgrade in the outfield over Hunter Renfroe and even MJ Melendez. That said, the possibility of such a move faded after the Blue Jays offered Santander a five-year deal (which the Royals supposedly didn’t want to do).
With the Royals Rally on Saturday and pitchers and catchers expected to report on February 12th (full team workouts will be on February 14th), it’s looking like the Royals may enter camp in Surprise, Arizona, without that big-name middle-of-the-order hitters. Thus, if the Royals want to see better production in the middle of the batting order, it may need to come from within (at least initially).
Thus, three current Royals outfielders could be key to watch this spring, especially once Cactus League play begins. In this post, I will look at three outfielders who could contribute and boost the middle of the lineup in 2025 but need to answer three questions this season to be regular hitters in the Kansas City lineup.
Can Velazquez Return to His 2023 Form in 2025?
It was a disappointing campaign for Nelson Velazquez in 2024 after a promising stint with the Royals in 2023 after coming over at the Trade Deadline from the Cubs. In 40 games and 147 plate appearances in 2023 with Kansas City, he hit 14 home runs and posted a 129 wRC+.
Thus, it makes sense why Velazquez was the Royals’ Opening Day designated hitter in 2024. Unfortunately, he couldn’t channel that swing and batted-ball ability that made him such a dangerous hitter for half a summer in Kansas City in 2023.
In 64 games and 230 plate appearances last season, the Puerto Rican-born outfielder hit .200 with a wRC+ of 76. He hit eight home runs but struck out 26.5% of the time and posted a 0.31 BB/K ratio. Regarding his batted-ball metrics, Velazquez flashed some progress in 2024, but not enough to stay viable at the Major League level, as illustrated in his TJ Statscard below.
Velazquez’s barrel rate, 90th% EV, Max EV, and O-Swing% all were in the upper percentiles last season, which is essential for a power hitter. Conversely, he didn’t connect on the Sweet Spot enough (31.3% Sweet-Spot%) and whiffed too much, especially against breaking (39.6%) and off-speed (54.8%) pitches. Therefore, launching the ball more consistently and cutting down the whiffs will be key for Nelly this season and will be two areas to watch from him in Arizona this spring.
He has demonstrated some progress in those areas in the Puerto Rican Winter League (he once again has played for Caguas, essentially his hometown team). In 20 games and 81 plate appearances, he slashed .246/.383/.462 with an .844 OPS. He also hit three home runs and collected 12 RBI.
His improved eye at the plate was the most significant development of all. He walked 16 times and only struck out 16, suitable for a 1.00 BB/K ratio. A year ago, with Caguas in the PRWL, he walked seven times and struck out 16 times, a BB/K ratio of 0.44.
Thus, he’s made a strong intent this winter to be more disciplined at the plate, and not only has it paid off in terms of his walks and strikeouts but also his overall numbers. Even though his batting average is lower than his 2023 mark (.281), his OBP is higher (.331 in 2023), as is his SLG (.451) and OPS (.788).
Don’t be surprised to see Velazquez look motivated and effective in the Cactus League, especially since he needs to make the Opening Day roster to likely stay in the Royals organization (he is out of Minor League Options).
Does Renfroe Have Anything Left in the Tank?
The Royals acquired Renfroe last offseason to help give some home-run punch in the middle of the order and add a veteran presence in the lineup that was sorely lacking in 2023. Renfroe certainly gave the Royals that veteran presence in the lineup and on the field, but he didn’t quite offer much punch in the lineup, based on his batted ball metrics via TJ Stats.
Granted, Renfroe improved and held his own in specific categories a season ago.
According to Fangraphs, he posted career-best marks in K rate (19.8%, the first time it’s been under 20%) and BB/K ratio (0.43). He also made frequent contact on pitches inside the zone and generated 90th% and Max Exit Velocities on batted balls through the 2024 season.
Unfortunately, he saw dramatic declines in his barrel, Sweet-Spot%, and hard-hit rates from previous seasons. As a result, Renfroe posted a career-worst ISO (.164) and collected his fewest homers (15) in a non-COVID season since his rookie season with San Diego in 2016.
All the numbers from 2024 don’t look good at the surface level for Renfroe, which dampens his outlook for this season among most Royals fans. That said, Renfroe was never 100 percent in 2024, which partially explains his lackluster offensive campaign last season.
Shortly after the Royals signed him, Renfroe had a broken toe in December (he was put on the IL on December 19th). He then encountered some back tightness early in Spring Training that put him behind in terms of preparation. His back issue also seemed to linger in the first couple of months, and when he turned it around at the end of May, he suffered a hamstring injury in August that put him on the 10-Day IL. When he returned, he looked closer to his April and May forms than his June and July forms, which were pretty good.
If Renfroe is even slightly healthier in 2025, it’s possible that he can surpass what he did with the Royals in 2024. A key indicator of this year’s possible outlook is his hard-hit and sweet spot trends from last season via Savant.
When looking at his sweet spot breakdown, it’s easy to notice a slow start followed by a small spike and then a regression back to where he was earlier in the season. This trend seems to correlate with Renfroe’s injury history in 2024.
On the other hand, his hard-hit rate rolling chart showed more encouraging trends. He started slow, much like his sweet-spot breakdown. However, after his hard-hit spiked above average, it stayed above average for most of the season, unlike his sweet spot chart.
Thus, Renfroe wasn’t having an issue hitting the ball hard down the stretch, even after his August hamstring injury. Instead, he struggled to launch the ball. That could’ve been due to the injury or just being off timing-wise due to being on the IL. Regardless, injuries seemed to take a toll on Renfroe, and it’s possible that 2024 was simply a worst-case scenario for him on a hitting end.
Granted, injuries may not improve for Renfroe, especially since he just turned 33 on January 28th. Injuries tend to get worse at his age, not better. That explains why Renfroe opted into his player option for 2025 rather than test free agency, as it seemed unlikely that he would get a matching $7.5 million offer from another club this offseason.
Nonetheless, if Renfroe stays healthy in Spring Training, he may avoid the slow start that plagued him last season. That, in turn, could build positive momentum for a bounce-back season from Renfroe, which would be much-needed for him and the Royals lineup.
Will MJ Melendez Finally Put It Together?
The Royals have had high hopes for Melendez since he led the Minor Leagues with 41 home runs in 2021. Melendez and Bobby Witt, Jr. have come up in the Royals’ farm system together since 2021, and the organization has dreamed of MJ and Bobby leading the team like a modern-day, Kansas City-specific “Bash Brothers” duo.
(Speaking of “Bash Brothers,” I will insert the obligatory “Oakland Nights” song.)
Bobby has taken that next “superstar” step. Unfortunately, Melendez has treaded water performance-wise at the Major League level over the past two seasons via Fangraphs.
After hitting 18 home runs and posting a 97 wRC+ in 129 games and 534 plate appearances in 2022, he hit 16 home runs and posted a 91 wRC+ in 602 plate appearances in 2023 and collected 17 home runs and an 85 wRC+ in 451 plate appearances last season. While his defense has improved each season, it still hasn’t been great overall, which explains his -0.8 fWAR in 412 MLB games in his career.
Hence, it’s not a surprise that many Royals fans were clamoring for the Royals to move on from MJ this offseason and find a replacement in left field that was a bit more proven.
Despite his struggles over the past two seasons, Melendez still possesses one of the most intriguing batted-ball profiles on this Royals team via TJ Stats.
Melendez ranked in the upper percentiles of the league in hard-hit%, average EV, 90th% EV, and Max EV. Furthermore, his barrel rate was slightly above average despite his hitting struggles and lackluster sweet spot (30.2%). Much like Velazquez, if Melendez timed it right and made contact, he could do severe damage on baseballs, as in his clutch home run against the Tigers in Detroit back in August.
Like Velazquez, though, he struggled with whiffs. Last year, Melendez had a 29.6% whiff rate overall, a 28.3% whiff rate on fastballs, and a 37.6% whiff rate on breaking pitches. His whiff rate was lower against offspeed pitches (22.8%). However, his xwOBACON on offspeed pitches was 0.332, lower than his xwOBACON on fastballs (0.420) and breaking balls (0.413).
Thus, Melendez needs to improve his contact ability or decision-making to be a long-term option in the corner outfield for the Royals.
A positive trait about Melendez is that he’s constantly making adjustments to improve his hitting at the MLB level.
Since 2022, he’s made numerous minor tweaks in his stance and hand placement to help alleviate those swing-and-miss issues. He has been particularly active in making more adjustments this offseason, as Melendez’s stance (as of January) vastly differs from what Royals fans have seen in his previous three years.
Will this new stance experiment work for Melendez? We will have to see in Cactus League play to know for sure (or at least initially).
Nonetheless, one has to credit MJ for trying to make another tweak to help him take the next step as a hitter at the MLB level.
If this tweak works, Melendez could be that 20-25 HR hitter who could boost the 5-7 spots in the Royals lineup in 2025 and beyond.
Photo Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
The pitching should regularly provide quality starts and close the game below the 4 run per 9 innings that should produce a winning record. However, 3b is still a bit of an enigma. I expect the next ten days to be a flurry of activity. At this stage, Free Agents might be feeling like week old roadkill.
If Bader is available to sign we should. He can play all 3 outfield positions and platoon with Ysbel. We should also sign Moncada to no more than one year with two club options. He is relatively young and might recover his form. If he can hit .260 with 20+ HR and 310+ OBP, it would be an improvement.
I don’t expect Renfroe to play well enough to make the team. Drew Waters is a younger and cheaper comparable player who makes Renfroe disposable. The deal would be for Waters to play/hit for contact. Think of it as a variation on money all…Trade him (Renfroe), Massie and Pratto for double A prospects.. Velazquez should be given the chance to crack the lineup as Melendez’s platoon… And Bader and Ysbel also platoon. Competition might do us well here.
I’ll be interested to see if Moncada is a target. They still seem high on Garcia, but rumors are out there that they want him to get some work in the OF. That’s a sign that something may be brewing at the hot corner, whether it’s Moncada or someone else.
I agree with you that Waters does more on the field than Renfroe and as you said, is younger and cheaper. On the flip side, it just seems like you don’t hear much about him anymore and he appears to be trade fodder at this point. I like the platoon with MJ and Nelly and think that could benefit them both in the short and long terms. Bader also could be an option since I think they need someone to hit against LHP since Isbel can’t and Blanco’s defense isn’t good enough to play in CF.
Any chance they part with one of their trio of young catching prospects as part of a package for an OF bat? Not a ton of depth in the farm system but catcher seems to be by far the deepest.
I don’t think so. Maybe at the Trade Deadline but think they will keep both of them for now (though I think Mitchell is most likely to be traded)