We are 75 days away from Opening Day, so it’s probably time for me to shift from hockey “mode” to baseball “mode” regarding my fan and writing focus.
With pitchers and catchers reporting next month, I wanted to focus on one Royals starting pitcher who’s mainly stuck out from the past two seasons: Cole Ragans.
This season, Ragans finished fourth in the AL Cy Young race, finishing behind Tarik Skubal (the unanimous winner), Seth Lugo, and Emmanuel Clase. Ragans’ finish was well-deserved, as he posted a 3.14 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 4.9 fWAR in 32 starts and 186.1 IP for the Royals in 2024.
As a result of his stellar performance and metrics, Thomas Nestico of TJ Stats rated Ragans as the 8th-best pitcher in baseball going into the 2025 season.
There’s no question that pitcher Cole Ragans has been the “crown jewel” acquisition of the JJ Picollo era in Kansas City.
Ragans was acquired from the Rangers for reliever Aroldis Chapman, whom the Royals signed on a pretty affordable one-year, $3.75 million deal in January of 2023. Many fans were initially “sour” on the deal, thinking that Kansas City could’ve gotten more from the Rangers than just Ragans and Roni Cabrera, a prospect in the Dominican Summer League for the Rangers.
Since coming to Kansas City in July of 2023, Ragans has led all Royals pitchers over the last two seasons with a 7.5 fWAR in 44 starts and 258 IP. Over the previous two years, he has a 3.00 ERA, 2.85 FIP, 29.8% K%, and 20.8% K-BB%. There has not been a more dominant starting pitcher for the Royals since 2023.
Picollo and the Royals’ professional scouting department deserve credit for identifying and developing Ragans as a pitcher at the MLB level. That kind of credit shouldn’t be dismissed, especially considering the Royals’ reputation for struggling to develop pitching under the previous President of Baseball Operations, Dayton Moore.
Now that the Royals have their “ace,” should they look at keeping Ragans long-term with a contract extension this offseason, much like they did with Bobby Witt, Jr. last spring?
Here’s a look at what a possible Ragans extension could look like, some roadblocks, and whether or not Picollo and the Royals will pursue one with Ragans before Opening Day.
Ragans’ 2024 And Recent Free Agent Starting Pitchers Who Signed Deals
Starting pitching in Major League Baseball is expensive, and this offseason has demonstrated that prices are only going up for the best arms in the game.
Here’s a look at the eight most-expensive starting pitcher free-agent contracts signed this offseason, based on AAV, via Spotrac.
The lowest AAV of this group of eight free-agent pitchers was Walker Buehler‘s $21.05 million with the Red Sox (he only has a one-year deal). The highest belongs to Blake Snell, whose AAV is $36.4 million after signing a lucrative long-term contract with the Dodgers this offseason (though most of the amount is deferred because it’s the Dodgers).
According to Fangraphs data, since July 1st of 2023, Ragans has outperformed all eight free-agent pitchers on an fWAR end with his 7.3 mark.
The results are encouraging for Ragans’ long-term future. However, how does his pitch quality via Stuff+ compare to those recent free-agent signees?
Here’s how Ragans fares in terms of Stuff+ over that same period, and unsurprisingly, he still compares favorably.
Ragans’ 104 Pitching+ (which accounts for Stuff and Location) was the second-best mark of this group of nine pitchers (he was behind Corbin Burnes, who recently signed with the Diamondbacks). His Stuff+ was tied for third with Yusei Kikuchi, who inked a three-year, $63.675 million deal with the Angels this offseason.
Lastly, Ragans’ TJ Stats Statcast card from this past season demonstrated a pitcher at the top of his game and should have a positive outlook for 2025 and beyond, barring injury.
According to TJ Stats data, Ragans’ tjStuff+ was 103, with four of his five pitches rating above average (100 is average). His best pitch on a Grade end was his changeup with a 65 mark. He also had a 40.4% Chase%, 47.8% Whiff%, and 0.290 xwOBA on contact on the pitch.
Below is an example of how nasty Ragans’ changeup was in 2024, as he made Baltimore’s Ryan Mountcastle look silly in the AL Wild Card game with the offspeed pitch.
Ragans’ PLV and Comparison to Other Royals Starting Pitchers
Kyle Bland’s PLV metrics, which rate pitch quality, also positively painted Ragans’ 2024 with the Royals. His five-pitch mix sported a 5.24 PLV overall, and his four-seamer was his best pitch with a 5.31 mark, as seen in the image below.
Four of Ragans’ pitches (four-seamer, changeup, slider, and curve) rated above average on a PLV end last season. As in his TJ Stats metrics, his cutter was below average, with a 5.02 mark. However, the fact that it was still over five is a positive sign that even his worst pitch is still a decent offering, especially compared to other Royals starting pitchers in 2024.
For example, here’s a look at last season’s PLV arsenal data from Seth Lugo. Notice how many pitches he threw that had PLV numbers under five.
Lugo had three pitches (sinker, changeup, and splitter) that rated below the 5.0 PLV benchmark. Lugo made up for the subpar pitch quality on those offerings with a vast arsenal (eight pitches). That said, the fact that a Cy Young finalist still has pitches that pale compared to Ragans’ arsenal demonstrates how elite Ragans’ pitches are.
Ragans’ PLV arsenal also outshined other Royals starting pitchers in 2024 (Brady Singer, Michael Wacha, and Alec Marsh) by a considerable margin, as demonstrated in the chart comparison below.
It’s not just stuff where Ragans shines in terms of outlook. He also outperformed all other Royals starting pitchers last year, not just on a fWAR end, but a strikeout and FIP end.
Lugo fared better in accumulating more IP (206.2) and a lower ERA (3.00). However, his FIP was 26 points behind Ragans’, his xERA was 35 points higher, and his K/9 was 2.89 points lower.
The numbers suggest Lugo will be solid again in 2025 with Kansas City. Conversely, it’s harder to see him be another Top-5 Cy Young finalist this season, as some regression is to be expected. It is a different case with Ragans, whose stuff should help him continue to produce elite production on the mound in his third season with the Royals.
Ragans And Other “Aces” In Similar Situations?
Ragans is one of the top pitchers in the game who is under team control. However, he is not alone in that status, as five others are in similar situations to Ragans in Kansas City.
Those pitchers are Tarik Skubal of the Tigers, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert of the Mariners, Dylan Cease of the Padres, and Tanner Houck of the Red Sox. According to Fangraphs, here’s how all six pitchers compare from the past two years.
Ragans’ fWAR hovers toward the bottom of this group, though his negative metrics from the Rangers are weighing him down in this data comparison.
Despite the underwhelming fWAR, his ERA is the second-best mark of this group, as is his FIP. He also has the third-highest K/9 and best HR/FB%. The main issue with Ragans in this data comparison is that he doesn’t have the innings that the others have, as his 282.1 IP total is the second-lowest of this group (though Skubal has the best fWAR with the fewest innings).
Regarding pitch quality on a PLV end, Ragans also fares favorably, though he’s in the lower middle of the pack in this group (unlike with Royals pitchers).
Ragans’ 5.24 overall PLV would be the second-worst mark of this group. Surprisingly, the lowest overall PLV belongs to Skubal, who had the best fWAR and won the Cy Young last year.
Thus, the PLV isn’t necessarily a significant blemish on Ragans’ long-term outlook compared to these other “aces.” That said, it could affect his asking price on a possible extension, as the Royals could utilize this data to suppress the AAV on contract discussions this winter or next.
All pitchers above have been under team control for a while, though Skubal was arbitration-eligible this offseason. The Tigers agreed to a one-year deal with him before this week’s arbitration deadline.
Skubal will be one to watch in the next couple of offseasons. Any mega-deal for the Tigers ace could have a domino effect on the other pitchers in this group. The same is true with Cease, a free agent in 2026 and will make $13.75 million with the Padres this year.
Picollo getting ahead of things and setting the market with Ragans could help keep costs lower in the long-term, as was the case with Wacha, whose contract with the Royals this offseason looks more manageable compared to the ones other free agent pitchers signed.
The Benefit and Risk of a Ragans Extension
The Royals likely would want to keep Ragans long-term, especially since it’s unlikely that they will be able to afford Ragans or another “premium” free-agent starting pitcher when the Royals lefty becomes a free agent in 2029.
The regime is different now, but a big reason why Moore traded away Zack Greinke to Milwaukee in 2010 was because they knew they wouldn’t be able to sign him to an extension that would fit into Kansas City’s budget. Owner John Sherman has a bigger and more flexible budget than the previous owner, David Glass. However, the Royals still have payroll limitations as a smaller-market team (they rank 28th in franchise value, ahead of only the A’s and Marlins)
If AAV ranges are now in the $20-25 million range for top-end free-agent starting pitchers, it will likely balloon up to $30-35 million in the next four or five years. Frankly, that is also an optimistic view and simply a “floor” of what could be possible salary-wise for pitchers.
Picollo may try to jump the market and offer Ragans a similar deal to what Witt received last offseason, which was over a long period but had multiple opt-outs. The Royals could offer Ragans a 10-year contract worth about $220 or $250 million but could have opts outs after 2029 or 2030, giving him the option to test free agency if he feels he could get an even bigger deal.
To opt-out, he would’ve lived up to the value of the extension from 2025 to 2029 or 2030 (whenever his opt-out date would be). For context, via Fangraphs value data, Ragans’ fWAR last year would’ve equaled $39 million. His 2.2 fWAR with the Rangers and Royals would’ve equaled $17.9 million.
Thus, if Ragans continues to put up 4+ fWAR seasons in the future, he would not only be worth the extension, but the Royals would be getting a ton of surplus value from the extension. Plus, the Royals would have a solid grasp of their payroll and contract situation for the future. That would prevent unnecessary arbitration cases with Ragans (which tend to get ugly with pitchers) and allow them to plan in the long term for other extensions on players or free-agent acquisitions.
The main risk, of course,e is if Ragans gets hurt and the contract becomes an albatross that haunts the Royals franchise for years, much like the Stephen Strasburg extension with the Nationals in 2019, which was $245 million over seven years.
After signing the deal, he only pitched 31.1 innings for Washington from 2020 to 2023. He ultimately retired in April of 2024.
Ragans has been healthy for the Royals and hasn’t missed much time beyond a start here and there. That said, he has had two Tommy John surgeries already in his career, so there’s that injury risk attached with a possible Ragans extension, even if the injuries that required surgery were a bit fluky, as chronicled in this Jaylon Thompson piece in 2023 in the KC Star.
Here’s what Picollo said about Ragans’ surgeries at the time of the trade:
“There is some risk,” Picollo said at the time of the trade. “What we have seen is an uptick in velocity. He threw 134 innings last year. He is well removed from the second Tommy John, which is a great sign.”
Thus, Ragans’ injury history may not be any worse than Skubal, who saw his season cut short in 2022 and only pitched in 80.1 IP due to a shoulder injury. Unfortunately, with the high-velocity nature of many pitchers’ mechanics, injury will happen to even the best starters. It’s just a matter of how quickly it takes for them to recover and get back to their productive selves.
Nonetheless, there’s a reason why many pitchers, even elite ones, do not get long-term extensions.
Even though Ragans is deserving, the Strasburg deal may have set a precedent for teams NOT to invest in their “aces,” even if they may be dominant. The Nationals struggled to recover from the Strasburg deal, as they’re starting to finally pull out of a long rebuilding period after winning the World Series in 2019.
That said, one never knows with the Royals. Many felt that it would be impossible for Picollo and the Royals to convince Witt to sign a long-term extension in Kansas City, and they did it last off-season despite the Royals winning only 56 games in 2023.
Perhaps Ragans in February or early March could be that next contract “surprise” from Picollo and the Royals, even if there’s considerable risk involved.
Photo Credit: Peter Aiken | USA TODAY Sports via Reuters
Notvjust Ragans. Kyle Wright 5-year extension now would be a gamble, but would solidify the rotation for 3 to 5 years.
I think you could wait a year. Wouldn’t be surprised if you start him slow in AAA and if he does well and shows progress, you ink him to an extension right after calling him up to keep that cost low.
Well… That would be the very safe play. At this point in his career, he is a man on a tightrope without a net. By now, Piccolo should know if he’s fully rehab’d, or still in process of getting back to 100%. If we are comfortable with his progress, such a signing might be very motivational and save us bidding on him when his contract expires. I’d try to get him done before Spring Training ends. The argument is that we think that he can be very successful in a park like the K, and we want to afford him that opportunity and be part of our mutual success. Hopefully, he buys in and it pans out.
I would agree. At this point in his career, I’m not sure Wright is going to get a big-time contract in two years. KC gives him the best opportunity to succeed and have a role on a winning team. He also signed quickly to avoid arbitration, which makes me think he’s bought in. Will be interesting to see how Royals handle Wright not only on the field, but off the field contractually.
[…] Top-3 consideration (Tarik Skubal, Seth Lugo, and Emmanuel Clase were the Top-3 in the AL race). I talked about a possible Ragans extension on this blog back in January, though I was looking at more of a long-term deal in the piece that would’ve been much more […]