Happy New Year to all those, and apologies for the delay in publishing some posts on this blog. I have been taking care of some things with work starting next week, though who knows what that will look like with pending inclement weather coming in the Kansas City area over the weekend (including today).
The Royals hot stove news has been as cold as the Kansas City weather. Since the Brady Singer-Jonathan India trade in late November, here are the transactions that the Royals completed in December via the official website:
- 12/20/24-Kansas City Royals signed free agent RHP Junior Fernández to a minor league contract.
- 12/12/24-Kansas City Royals signed free agent RHP Taylor Clarke to a minor league contract
- 12/08/24-Kansas City Royals signed free agent SS Luis Gutierrez to a minor league contract.
On January 2nd, the Royals made their first move of 2025, though it wasn’t exactly a “roster-impacting” transaction:
Thus, Royals fans are starting to grow impatient, especially with pitchers and catchers reporting next month.
Many Royals fans hoped that JJ Picollo would make a splash with this roster this offseason after the club surprised in 2024 with 86 wins and an appearance in the ALDS against the Yankees. While India certainly has been a significant addition (primarily to address the Royals’ leadoff woes over the past two years), there was some anticipation that a power-hitting corner infielder or outfielder would also be added.
I think Picollo will still acquire a few more pieces before the Royals Rally on February 1st (which essentially kicks off the Royals’ “report” to camp in Surprise, Arizona). Anne Rogers of MLB.com, in her most recent newsletter, also believes that they will make at least one move before Spring Training, with a Michael Lorenzen reunion likely.
Here’s what Rogers said in her most recent article:
The question remains whether the dollars match up for both sides. If Lorenzen’s plan, as detailed by The Athletic last month, to be a two-way player for a contender for half of the season does not work out, the Royals have two open rotation spots heading into Spring Training. Lorenzen would fit well into one of them while increasing the competition for others — and bringing his bullpen experience for added versatility.
Thus, it seems probable that the Royals will instead focus on “bargain”-priced free agents to fill out the rest of their roster for 2025. One position where there could be plenty of options in that price range is the outfield, as there are still many free agents without clubs as of January 4th, via Spotrac.
It’s hard to envision Picollo and the Royals making an offer to a free agent with a qualifying offer (which would result in the Royals relinquishing a draft pick). Furthermore, it’s also challenging to see the Royals acquiring an outfielder who would command something in the $10 million-plus AAV range. That would eliminate options like Anthony Santander (who also has a qualifying offer) and Jurickson Profar, whose market value is $12.9 million via Spotrac.
Thus, I decided to focus on four free agents who could fill the Royals’ needs in the outfield but could come to Kansas City on affordable one-year deals. Those outfielders are the following:
- Randal Grichuk (formerly of the Diamondbacks)
- Manuel Margot (formerly of the Twins)
- Dylan Carlson (formerly of the Cardinals and Rays)
- Michael A. Taylor (formerly of the Pirates and a Royal from 2021-2022)
Here’s how those four outfielders have performed over the past two seasons via Fangraphs.
Based on the data, there are positives and negatives with all four outfielders.
Thus, with the help of Fangraphs, TJ Statcards, and other PLV data, let’s examine each one individually to see what Royals fans could expect from each outfielder should they make their way to Kansas City in 2025.
Randal Grichuk
Spotrac Market Value: $3.3 Million
Grichuk makes sense for the Royals as he posted impressive offensive metrics over the past two seasons and can play all three outfield positions.
In 750 plate appearances over the past two years, the 33-year-old outfielder scored 28 home runs, scored 105, and posted a wOBA of .348 and wRC+ of 115. Last season with Arizona, Grichuk’s wOBA was .371, and he also posted a hard-hit rate of 48.1% and a barrel rate of 11%. According to TJ Stats data, he was terrific last season against fastballs, as he posted a .434 wOBA on contact and an 11.9% whiff rate against those pitches in 2024.
Grichuk doesn’t walk a lot. He only had a 7.2% BB rate last year, and his swing rate was high at 47.3%. However, he only had a whiff rate of 20.4% and K rate of 16.5%. That shows that he can be the kind of hitter who can extend innings, something the Royals lacked at the bottom of the lineup.
On a PLV end, his decision and contact skills hovered slightly above and below average for most of the season. Conversely, he saw a significant spike in power, especially at the end of the season with Arizona.
From a hitting end, Grichuk is a perfect fit for the Royals. On a defensive end, however, he has been a bit questionable despite the defensive flexibility.
Over the last two seasons, according to Statcast data, he has been nine fielding runs below average. That is the worst mark of any of the four outfielders profiled in this piece. His DRS (+2) and UZR (5.6) metrics are a bit better, but his overall Fangraphs Def of -17.7 over the past two seasons blemishes his profile.
There’s no question that Grichuk can provide insurance and flexibility in the outfield, especially in the corner outfield spots. That said, despite his multi-position versatility, he may not be much of a defensive upgrade over MJ Melendez or even Hunter Renfroe.
Manuel Margot
Spotrac Market Value: $1.4 Million
Margot’s metrics don’t look great at the surface level from the past two seasons with the Rays (2023) and Twins (2024).
In 679 plate appearances, Margot has only hit eight home runs, a .288 wOBA, an 85 wRC+, and a 0.3 fWAR. Last year with Minnesota was disappointing, as he only had a .275 wOBA, 4.2% barrel rate, and 35% hard-hit rate. Thus, it’s not surprising that Minnesota let him go after paying him $9.5 million last year (they declined his option this offseason, and he became a free agent).
The 30-year-old outfielder may not be the power source they need in the middle of the lineup. That said, he makes excellent contact and could experience a bounce back in Kansas City, especially considering he’s familiar with manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover.
Margot makes heavy contact at the plate, as he only had a K rate of 15.7% and a whiff rate of 20.7%. Much like Grichuk, he swings a lot (49.2%). Conversely, he showed much better contact and decision-making last year via PLV Process+ data.
Margot would make sense as a seven-hole hitter who can lead off innings and not just put the ball in play but also provide positive value with his baserunning (0.9 BsR last season). The Royals had strikeout issues at the bottom of the lineup last season, and Margot would help solve that issue.
Unfortunately, despite his athleticism, Margot is a bit questionable defensively.
In the past two years, he has had an FRV of -9. Furthermore, his other metrics rate poorly. Over that same time, his DRS was -6, and UZR was -5.4. Therefore, defensively, he may be a similar, if not worse, player than Grichuk but without the power upside.
The only advantage of Margot is his familiarity with Q and Hoover and the fact that he won’t be expensive. Based on his Spotrac market value, a Minor League deal with an invite to Spring Training may be enough to get him to Surprise.
Dylan Carlson
Spotrac Market Value: $5.3 Million
Carlson doesn’t look attractive at all for the Royals at first glance.
Over the past two years, the former Cardinals 1st-round pick has the fewest plate appearances (520), the lowest wOBA (.275), and the worst fWAR (-1.0). He is also expected to command the most market value, and his Process+ rolling chart was painfully bad a season ago.
The 26-year-old post-hype outfield prospect shows good plate discipline. That is evident from his strong decision value trends and 24.7% O-Swing%. Unfortunately, there’s nothing else positive about what Carlson has done over the past two seasons.
Even though the recent data isn’t significant, there’s no question that the Royals like post-hype prospects. That’s why they acquired Drew Waters and Nelson Velazquez in the past two trade deadlines and still have them on their 40-man roster.
Thus, he could be a nice project for the Royals, who could quickly be benched if things don’t work out. It’s not out of the question to think Carlson could platoon with Renfroe in right field and perhaps platoon with MJ (since Carlson is a switch hitter) in left if the bat turns around.
The former Rays and Cardinals outfielder would be the most significant risk of this group of four, but he also possesses the most upside, especially at 26. He could become a long-term asset for the Royals if Alec Zumwalt and the Royals’ hitting coaches can tap into his potential.
Michael A. Taylor
Spotrac Market Value: $2.7 Million
It’s plausible that Taylor may not want to return to Kansas City, and the Royals feel likewise. After all, Taylor blocked Isbel from regular playing time in the outfield in 2021 and 2022. Thus, Picollo may avoid a reunion with Taylor so that Isbel doesn’t feel like his job is in jeopardy.
On the flip side, if Taylor understands his role, he could be a nice platoon in center field who could be what Garrett Hampson was last season but with way more hitting upside.
Taylor’s main strength is his defense. Royals fans are pretty familiar with that. He won a Gold Glove in 2021 and was a finalist in 2022. His fielding has continued to be a strength since he left Kansas City after 2022. In 242 games, he’s produced a 15.6 Def, 17 DRS, 9.8 UZR, and 21 FRV.
With Taylor, the Royals would be guaranteed to have two Gold Glove-caliber centerfielder for 162 games. That’s not a lousy luxury to have, especially considering how spacious Kauffman Stadium is. Plus, Taylor is quite familiar with the K, so there would be no “growing pains” like with Hampson last year.
The only issue is Taylor’s bat is highly questionable, even for a platoon player.
In 688 plate appearances with the Twins and Pirates over the past two years, Taylor has produced a 75 wRC+ and .279 wOBA. He also had a K rate of 34.2%, the worst mark of this group of outfield free agents profiled in this piece.
Last year with Pittsburgh, his swing-and-miss issues were horrible.
In addition to having a 34.8% K rate, he had a whiff rate of 39.6% and a Z-Contact of 72.8%. Thus, it wasn’t necessarily a problem of plate discipline for Taylor in 2024. Instead, he just struggled to make contact in general, even on pitches in the strike zone.
The only upside with Taylor is that his power has spiked since leaving Kansas City.
Over the past two years, he has collected 26 home runs and sported a barrel rate of 12.7%, the best of the group. Last season with the Pirates, he had an 11.1% barrel rate, and his 90th% EV was 104.8 MPH, which ranked in the upper percentile of the league via TJ Stats.
Conversely, based on his rolling chart data, PLV’s Process+ was a bit more skeptical about how legitimate his power was in 2024.
Much like Margot, Taylor should only receive a Minor League deal from Kansas City at best. However, if Taylor can rebound even a bit with his contact ability and continue to show that barrel-ability over the past two years, he could be a nice backup to Isbel in 2025.
Photo Credit: Ashley Landis | AP
Pretty funky foursome… Of the four. Dylan Carlson is a project, but the only one presenting significant upside. He is basically a Waters’-like project. Still think Bader is the better fit for the roster.
I like Bader too but I had talked about him as a possible option on the blog before so decided to leave him out. He’s definitely a preferred choice over any of the four.
Carlson is interesting because at you said, he would be a Waters esque project. Feel like the Royals have had interest before so could see them kick the tires if the price is right
Ir the price is right, and he doesn’t make the roster, Carlson improves Omaha as he waits for a call-up. I did look at Waters in some detail, and I feel his issue is one of approach. If he cut back on the power to create contact, he would probably still hit harder than league average. Has he ever tried? Given,all his other tools, if Waters could hit .260 with a .310 OBP and high teens in HRs, he would be an everyday player in many teams. Carlson appears to be similar in,that he lapped up the early hype and damaged his chances. He is now a rescue project with a fairly high upside. Similar to Waters in potential, if only with a different makeup. Not as much power as Waters, but both could be total bases producers. Those are important for teams to rally in bunches.
Bader, is an instant replacement for Renfro. Platoon Weimer and Ysbel, and Waters and Melendez and the outfield begins to look as a strength. Carlson becomes a sixth outfielder when rosters expand. Sign Moncada, trade Massey + Pratto for prospects, and we might turned weaknesses into strength. Garmin,could also go for the right price as we have youth on the wings and Salvi can help ease them in over the next two years as he transitions to DH.
I’m curious about that too. I gotta imagine that had to be a priority last offseason and somehow, it just didn’t really get that much better in Triple-A. A lot of swing and miss and inconsistent contact. But you’re right, if he could be a .260/.310/.420 hitter, that’s real solid and probably worthy of starting over Renfroe, honestly (especially with Waters’ defense and baserunning advantage).
Bader to me fits in as a super utility guy who can play 3-5 times a week depending on matchup. Plus, he has the defensive advantage over Renfroe. Carlson would be an interesting project in Omaha, but I could see a rebuilding team giving him a chance (surprised White Sox are not throwing their hat in the ring, but maybe they’re waiting for the price to get a bit lower).
Ten is may be,interested in Massey… Left hitting 2b in lefty friendly Ysnkees’ stadium… Maybe stick them with Renfroe.
[…] As I mentioned in my last article, the Royals have had a calm offseason since the Brady Singer-Jonathan India trade back at the end of November. However, the Biggio move is particular and gives some context to the other Minor League signings Royals GM JJ Picollo has made since the India acquisition. […]