On December 26th, I shared and analyzed the TJ Stats Triple-A Statcast cards of eight Royals hitters who primarily played in Triple-A in 2024. The article gave Royals fans some food for thought for what the Kansas City roster could look like when Spring Training starts in late February.
Furthermore, it gave more detailed metrics about how certain hitters on the Royals’ 40-man roster performed in Triple-A a season ago, beyond the surface-level numbers one can find on Baseball Reference and Fangraphs.
In this post, I will do the same with pitchers, focusing on six pitchers who pitched in Triple-A last season and could impact the Major League roster in 2025 if they are not traded before Opening Day. I also decided to analyze one pitcher, Noah Murdock, whom the Athletics selected from the Royals in the Rule 5 Draft this December.
Per Rule 5 guidelines, Murdock could return to Kansas City if designated for assignment at any point. Thus, he could impact the Royals’ big-league roster should things not work out for him in Sacramento (it’s still weird saying that).
Hence, let’s look at the Statcards of these seven pitchers and what Royals fans can take away from the data and expect this spring.
Noah Cameron
The Royals added Cameron to the 40-man roster this offseason after a solid 2024 in Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha. He was particularly good with the Storm Chasers, as he posted a 2.32 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 3.39 FIP in 54.1 IP.
In terms of his Statcast metrics, there’s a lot to like about Cameron, which makes his addition to the 40-man roster even more sensible.
Cameron doesn’t sport high-end velocity, as his fastball ranked in the 57th percentile. However, that didn’t stop him from showing a superb ability to generate whiffs (93rd percentile), strikeouts (95th percentile K rate), and strikes in general. His Zone % ranked in the 80th percentile, and his CSW% ranked in the 99th percentile last season in Omaha.
The St. Joseph, Missouri product also limited the hard hits in Omaha, which is essential in Triple-A’s hitter-friendly environments (especially Werner Park in Omaha).
His hard-hit rate ranked in the 98th percentile, his average exit velocity ranked in the 99th percentile, and his barrel rate allowed ranked in the 80th percentile. The fact that Cameron can not just generate strikes and whiffs but also limit hard-hit balls bodes well for him in 2025 as he competes for a spot in the Royals rotation in Spring Training.
The only concern with Cameron’s profile is that his pitch quality doesn’t rate well on a TJ Stuff+ scale (similar to Stuff+ and PLV).
He has three pitches that are close to league average (100 TJ Stuff+) in his changeup (99 TJ Stuff+), cutter (98), and curveball (98). However, his fastball only had a TJ Stuff+ of 87, which lowered his overall TJ Stuff+ to 94.
There’s no question that Cameron has the command and repertoire to succeed at the Major League level. That said, how his stuff fares in Cactus League play could determine whether or not he’ll be a sleeper in the Royals rotation or if he struggles in his transition from Triple-A to the Major Leagues.
Chandler Champlain
The Royals didn’t protect Champlain from the Rule 5 Draft, and their risk paid off as Champlain went undrafted in the December player draft. Hence, the Royals pitching development team will get another year to work with Champlain and help him develop into an MLB-caliber pitcher.
It was a rough season for Champlain in Omaha, as he gave up a 5.61 ERA, 1.56 WHIP, and 5.74 FIP in 104.1 IP with the Storm Chasers in 2024. The Statcast numbers aren’t great for Champlain either.
The former USC product was below the 20th percentile in eight categories and below the 10th percentile in five (K-BB%, K%, O-Swing%, Z-Contact%, and Whiff%). Champlain did a good job limiting barrels (75th percentile) and flooding the strike zone (91st percentile Zone%). He also was slightly above average when generating groundballs (58th percentile GB%). Unfortunately, there weren’t many positives to glean from his 2024 Statcard.
His TJ Stuff+ metrics should give Royals fans hope that Champlain can turn it around as a reliever.
Champlain’s slider and sweeper are rated well based on their 103 and 104 TJ Stuff+ marks, respectively. His curve was also only slightly below average, with a 98 mark. Conversely, his changeup was below average (93), and his four-seamer rated even worse (85). Thus, his overall TJ Stuff+ of 93 could look much better in 2025 if he makes appropriate changes with his fastball pitch.
Champlain may not be a starter at the MLB level. With two-plus pitches, though, he could be a solid reliever who could contribute as soon as the tail end of 2025 if he responds appropriately to the Royals pitching development team.
Evan Sisk
Sisk was another reliever added to the 40-man roster, and it’s easy to see why based on his performance in Omaha last year.
In 57.1 IP, Sisk posted a 1.57 ERA, 2.26 FIP, and 1.03 WHIP. His CSW% and K-BB% ranked in the 100th percentile, his CSW%, xwOBA, and barrel rate allowed in the 99th percentile, his whiff rate in the 94th percentile, and GB% in the 86th percentile. Sisk’s control could sometimes be erratic, as evidenced by his 21st percentile BB%. Conversely, no reliever in Omaha was more dependable than Sisk last season, especially since he could strike out batters and put them out in various ways.
Sisk’s performance was a big reason why the Royals traded Walter Pennington away for Michael Lorenzen at last year’s Trade Deadline. Based on the Statcast metrics, Sisk was just as good, if not slightly better, than Pennington in Triple-A. Additionally, Sisk’s overall TJ Stuff+ of 97 dwarfed Pennington’s Stuff+ of 91, giving Sisk a better outlook at the big-league level.
The competition in the bullpen will be fierce among left-handed relievers. Angel Zerpa, Sam Long, and Daniel Lynch IV all figure to be in the mix for spots in Spring Training, so it’s likely that Sisk will start the 2025 season in Omaha for a third straight season.
That said, if any of the three above falter, seeing Sisk be the first call-up from Triple-A, especially with a plus slider with a TJ Stuff+ of 103, wouldn’t be surprising.
Jonathan Bowlan
Bowlan has had a weird road in the Royals system. At 28 years old, he may be at a crossroads in the Royals organization, though receiving an extra Minor League option this offseason allows the Royals to be a little more patient with him in 2025.
A 2018 draft pick, he has long shown potential in the Royals minor league system, thanks to his impeccable command. An elbow injury in 2021 derailed his progress, but he finally looked like his pre-injury self in 2024. The surface-level metrics aren’t great, as he sported a 4.67 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 1.35 WHIP in 104 IP. However, he was much better when he moved to the bullpen, where his repertoire played much better in fewer innings.
Bowlan’s Triple-A Statcast metrics paint his 2024 in a more optimistic light.
His fastball velocity ranked in the 90th percentile, and he also sported 79th percentile extension, which gives him more velocity-adding potential. Even though his CSW% ranked in the 26th percentile and his Zone% ranked in the 34th percentile, his other strike-generating data fared better.
His K% ranked in the 56th percentile, his K-BB% in the 72nd percentile, and his whiff and walk rates ranked in the 78th percentile. He also did an excellent job limiting barrels, evidenced by his barrel rate ranking in the 93rd percentile.
Bowlan sported an overall TJ Stuff+ of 98, with his curve and slider being his best pitches, with 100 and 101 TJ Stuff+ marks, respectively. His changeup (97) and four-seamer (98) were just slightly below average, but they are serviceable enough pitches to transition to the Major League levels in a relief role. The only pitch Bowlan may eliminate is his sinker, which had a 91 TJ Stuff+ in 2024.
Don’t be surprised if Bowlan sneaks into the Royals bullpen on Opening Day, especially if he can make the right tweaks to his repertoire in Spring Training.
Steven Cruz
Cruz saw sporadic time with Kansas City in 2024 and showed some growth from his brief stint in 2023.
After posting a 4.97 ERA in 12.1 IP with the Royals in his debut season, he produced a 0.00 ERA in 5.2 IP. While his small stint surprised many Royals fans, it shouldn’t have been as shocking, based on his numbers and Statcast metrics in Omaha last season.
In 51.1 IP with the Storm Chasers, he posted a 3.33 ERA, 3.98 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. Cruz has long had incredible velocity. His 100th-percentile fastball velocity and 89th-percentile extension illustrated that. That said, his improvement in control in Omaha was a sign of Cruz’s progress in 2024.
Cruz’s Zone% ranked in the 55th percentile, CSW% in the 74th percentile, and his K-BB% ranked in the 73rd percentile. His walk rate was still a work in progress, ranking in the 25th percentile. That said, he made up for it in enough categories to help him be a productive reliever consistently in Omaha.
On a stuff end, there’s a lot to be optimistic about with Cruz. His overall TJ Stuff+ was 104, and he sported three above-average pitches in his cutter (103), four-seamer (101), and slider (111). Those are elite-level metrics that will help him succeed at the Major League level.
If Cruz continues to develop his control in 2025, not only will he be a Major League reliever, but he could also find himself in a late-inning, high-leverage role.
Eric Cerantola
Cerantola was added to the Royals’ 40-man along with Cameron and Luinder Avila so they wouldn’t get selected in the Rule 5 Draft. The 24-year-old right-hander spent most of the season in Double-A, but he showed some promise in a short cup of coffee with the Storm Chasers at the end of the season.
In 14.1 IP, Cerantola posted a 3.77 ERA, 5.38 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP. With the Storm Chasers, he proved to be a strike and strikeout-machine. His CSW% and Whiff% ranked in the 100th percentile, his K% in the 97th percentile, and his K-BB% in the 93rd percentile. Those are the kinds of metrics that one wants to see from a reliever at any level.
The issue with Cerantola is that his repertoire is limited.
He has an elite-level slider, which sported a 106 TJ Stuff+ last season. However, his four-seamer had a TJ Stuff+ of 82, which brought down his overall TJ Stuff+ to 96. His slider may have been one of the best pitches thrown in Omaha last season based on quality. Conversely, he has to make his four-seamer a better offering if he wants to succeed at the Major League level.
The good thing for Cerantola is that velocity with the pitch isn’t a problem. His fastball ranked in the 97th percentile in Triple-A last season. So he can throw gas, but it’s just a bit too straight at the moment, and it’s likely led to his rough barrel (10th) and hard-hit (11th) percentiles.
Thus, this spring in Surprise, the Royals’ pitching development team will likely work with his pitch grip and usage to help him gain more movement on the pitch and make it a more compelling offering overall in 2025.
Noah Murdock (Now With Athletics)
Murdock was selected by the A’s in the Rule 5 Draft, and one can understand why based on his Statcast metrics from Triple-A last year. In 38.1 IP with the Storm Chasers, he posted a 3.76 ERA, 3.52 FIP, and 1.38 WHIP.
The 26-year-old was elite when it came to minimizing hard contact in Triple-A. His Average EV, Barrel%, and Hard-Hit% allowed ranked in the 99th percentile, and his wOBA in the 97th percentile. His GB% also ranked in the 100th percentile, ideal for a late-inning reliever in high-leverage situations.
He also did a solid job of generating strikes and strikeouts.
His CSW% ranked in the 89th percentile, and his K% in the 92nd percentile. Conversely, control could be an issue at times for Murdock. His K-BB% only ranked in the 53rd percentile, his Zone% in the 44th percentile, and his BB% left a lot to be desired, as it ranked in the bottom 1st percentile.
I watched Murdock in person in Des Moines against the Iowa Cubs on the 4th of July, and he was impressive as he struck out the side in one inning of work. Thus, I can see why the Athletics spent a Rule 5 pick on him and are optimistic about his potential to stick on an MLB roster for the season, even with their heightened expectations for 2025.
When he was on, Murdock was arguably one of the best relievers in the Royals system.
His TJ Stuff+ had a rating of 101, primarily propped up by a solid cutter (101) and elite slider (107). His sinker was slightly below average with a 97 TJ Stuff+, but there’s no doubt that based on TJ Stuff+, Murdock’s repertoire is Major League-ready.
Unfortunately, when Murdock’s command wasn’t sharp?
Well, one can understand why Kansas City hesitated to add him to the 40-man roster this offseason.
Photo Credit: Christian Petersen | Getty Images
Lots to like. A few guys 6’5″ and taller should reallybexploit that angle of attack on fastballs and cutters.
Agreed. Think Bowlan and Sisk are sleepers. Cruz too. Was surprised by how well Cruz’s stuff rated. If he continues to hone control, he could be a late inning guy long term
The dodgers used to say that the only thing you can’t teach a pitcher is velocity. If I’m Piccolo, I might, or not, go after Lorentzen and play it pat with the bullpen. Besides height and velocity, a few of these are the or more pitch guys. We might sign a high upside free agent straggler, as that market is stagnant and anxiety has to be building up. I think there will be a flurry of FA pitcher signings (they report first) after the 6th, and then position players closer to first of February. Still think we should sign Yoan Moncada to a Minor League contract and Harrison Bader to play RF. We can then trade Renfroe and Massey for some prospects. Jurickson Profar would lol good in Royal Blue, and he can play all over. Bader and Weimer(c.f. we got on the India trade) can platoon with Renfroe and Ysbel. Waters could also get at-bats in that scheme with Melendez.
I’m cautiously optimistic.
I agree with the FA flurry coming soon. Feel like after the new year, players get nervous and start signing. It’s easy to hold out in November. January, especially for pitchers, is a different story. I also think the early issues of guys like Snell and Montgomery, who signed late, will push pitchers to agree to deals sooner so they don’t hurt themselves once the season starts.
I think Moncada and Bader are becoming more realistic targets for the Royals, as we’re not hearing their names a whole lot. Makes them cheap and agreeable to short term deals. I like Profar, but I find it hard to see him leaving San Diego. He seems like the kind of guy who will accept less to stay in San Diego, much like Burnes and Arizona. Profar has been kind of mediocre outside of the Padres too. But if we can add another arm, like Lorenzen, bring in Moncada and Bader on reasonable one-year deals, I would feel pretty good about our offseason and outlook for 2025.
Here’s an idea for a utility guy to keep in Omaha as a playing coach until rosters expand…
Didi Gregorius.
Currently playing Mexican baseball.
Would be okay with a Minor League contract and an invite to Spring Training to kick the tires on him and see if he has anything left in the tank.
Profar may have been up and down in hitting, but, since 2014, he has had an OBP below .300 once (.294). KC is like SD without the insane land values and the ecologic limitations to build. We also don’t have a Narco-Cartel stronghold across the border. I can see a three year deal with performance escalators.
Moncada could be signed for two seasons with appropriate minor and Major League compensation and a Club option for a third year at MLB scale only. He is attractive because there is nothing to rationally explain his drop in performance. Im betting on bad habits picked up while compensating for playing injured.
Bader is a no-brainer. Toss him in as a late inning defender along with Weiner and Ysbel, and your reliever should feel confident that nothing is dropping in for a hit.
A two-year deal for Moncada makes sense. A three-year deal for Profar feels high. Even a two-year with a club option is a lot. I would be good with something similar similar to what Renfroe got this year for Profar, though I don’t know if he would agree to it. There’s no question that I like Profar, and he’s got the prospect pedigree that the Royals tend to like. I just see it hard for him to make his way to KC, though you never know, especially as we get closer to Spring Training.