I hope everyone who follows this blog had a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays with family and friends. This season can be a joyous but complicated time, especially for families who may be apart for various reasons. As someone who lives in Kansas City but has a sister in Portland, ME, and parents back in Sacramento, I know the challenge the holidays can bring.
With that time behind us (unless you’re Jewish, then Happy Hanukkah), I wanted to get back to the Royals, even though they couldn’t accomplish much on the transactional end in December. I heard rumors that the Royals brass were trying to get some trade done before Christmas Eve, but nothing happened, which makes me think the deal was either put on ice or is dead entirely.
It wouldn’t be surprising to hear a deal announced tomorrow or Friday, especially if something was close to completion. On the flip side, if we don’t hear anything by Friday evening, the trade talks between the Royals and the possible team (either the Mets or Angels were the rumored teams) are likely done, and we may need to wait until January for another potential trade to come to fruition.
Until we hear some deal, I wanted to do some offseason research on players, and I came across Thomas Nestico’s Twitter and Patreon and some projects he’s been working on this offseason.
Thomas runs TJ Stats, and he does not only baseball visualizations based on analytical trends, but he also does this for hockey (specifically the NHL). As someone with a vested interest in not just Royals baseball but fantasy baseball and hockey, TJ Stats has become a required follow on Twitter and Bluesky and a site I support on Patreon. If you share those interests, you should also support Thomas’ work at TJ Stats.
One project that caught my interest this offseason was his creation of Statcards for Triple-A players based on Statcast metrics via Baseball Savant.
Thomas has long created these cards for MLB players and their MLB Statcast data (also available on his Patreon). However, with Triple-A and Low-A (Florida State League only) Statcast data available last season, he was able to dive in and create an app that could generate Statcards for any player who has acquired Triple-A plate appearances (for hitters) or innings (for pitchers). Unfortunately, the Royals play in the Low-A Carolina League, so there is no available Low-A Statcast data for Royals prospects (or at least public data).
Thus, I decided to create and quickly analyze eight hitters in the Royals system who acquired considerable playing time in Triple-A last season and could compete for spots on the active roster in Spring Training. This includes six players who played in Omaha the previous season and two new ones to the Royals organization but played in Triple-A with their respective clubs in 2024.
To keep this as condensed as possible, I will not explore much other data beyond what Nestico presents in these Statcards. Thus, I will not refer to many other advanced metrics that one may see on Fangraphs simply because I don’t want this post to be 5,000 words.
So let’s look at the Statcast data from those eight players and whether or not Royals fans should seriously pay attention to them when they report to Surprise in February.
Nick Pratto, 1B/OF
Hopes have been high for Pratto since being selected 14th overall in the 2017 MLB Draft. He showed flashes of being a solid big-league regular in 2022 and 2023, but he’s struggled overall at the MLB level. With Vinnie Pasquantino being available for most of the year and more veteran options in the corner outfield spots, Pratto spent most of 2024 in Omaha.
Unfortunately for Pratto, the metrics weren’t great last season, and his future in Kansas City looks quite cloudy, especially without any Minor League options remaining.
Pratto hit 16 home runs in 494 plate appearances, but his OPS was only .735, which is not great for a player in his third season in Triple-A. Pratto has never been projected to be a high-average hitter at the MLB level, but considering his age and experience, one would think he would’ve produced something better than his .242 mark.
Swings-and-misses were an issue for Pratto last year, as his 30.8% whiff rate ranked in the 22nd percentile, and his 30.2% K rate ranked in the 7th percentile. However, the more significant concern was the lack of quality contact in 2024.
While Pratto’s 90th% EV ranked in the 53rd percentile, his barrel rate was slightly below average at 5.6%, ranking in the 49th percentile. His hard-hit rate of 36.5% ranked in the 41st percentile, and his 86.5 MPH average EV ranked in the 38th percentile. He also only pulled the ball 35.2% of the time, and his pull FB%, which typically correlates highly with home runs, ranked in the 34th percentile.
For a first base and corner OF type, those kinds of batted-ball metrics won’t cut it at Triple-A, let alone the MLB level.
At 26 years old, Pratto is likely a Four-A player at this point in his career unless something dramatic happens. We’ve seen players like Ryan O’Hearn succeed in their late 20s, but O’Hearn had better-batted ball data than this.
It would be shocking to see Pratto on the Royals’ 40-man roster on Opening Day.
Nelson Velazquez, OF
I’ve written plenty enough on Nelly on this site, so I’m not surprised by his Statcast metrics in Triple-A.
He whiffed more than one would like to see (30.5%; 24th percentile), but he also didn’t see many pitches in the strike zone in his time in Omaha. His Zone% was only 45.6%, ranked in the bottom 9th percentile. On a positive note, he didn’t chase much with the Storm Chasers, as his 22.6% O-Swing% ranked in the 83rd percentile, and his 15.1% walk rate ranked in the 90th.
Thus, it seems like Triple-A pitchers respected Nelly’s power, which makes sense considering his 64th percentile barrel rate and 65th percentile 90th% EV.
My only concern with Nelly is that he didn’t pull the ball much in Omaha, which could explain his struggles with the Royals in 2024 despite decent decision value and power metrics.
His pull rate of 33.6% ranked in the 24th percentile, and his pull FB% of 26% ranked in the 38th percentile. That could explain why his wOBA ranked in the 42nd percentile, even though his xwOBA ranked 89th. While his barrel rate was also above average, it should’ve been better than the 64th percentile, especially considering his demonstrated power in 2023 with the Royals after coming over from the Cubs at the Trade Deadline.
What Velazquez’s bat speed looks like this Spring in Arizona and whether or not he can improve pulling the ball (and pulling it in the air) could determine whether or not he bounces back in 2025 or if he moves to another organization by Opening Day.
Drew Waters, OF
Waters’ Statcard is a study in contrasts.
On one end, there’s much to be encouraged about regarding his Statcast metrics from Omaha in 2024.
He ranked in the 85th percentile in wOBA, 75th percentile barrel rate, 74th percentile in 90th% EV, and 77th percentile in Z-Swing%. He also pulled the ball 39.7% of the time, which ranked in the 61st percentile. Waters not only demonstrated some considerable power, but he did a solid job of taking advantage of pitches in the strike zone as well.
Conversely, he also showed some significant flaws in his approach with the Storm Chasers last year.
His O-Swing% ranked in the 33rd percentile, his K% in the 23rd percentile, and his whiff% in the 21st percentile. Waters had issues in 2022 and 2023 with the Royals being too impatient at the plate, and unfortunately, that didn’t improve in Omaha in 2024.
That free-swinging approach and high-swing-and-miss likely resulted in him spending most of the year in Omaha last season.
There is still something intriguing about Waters based on these metrics. While he may not be a Silver Slugger, these surprising power metrics, combined with his strong defensive and baserunning tools, should ideally make him an ideal fourth outfielder at the MLB level.
However, unless he can limit the chase rate and improve the contact ability, he will likely remain in Triple-A in 2025, considering he still has a Minor League option.
Tyler Gentry, OF
I’ve tended to be a big fan of Gentry, but I’ll be honest: I was slightly surprised by his Statcard from 2024.
Unlike Waters, Gentry demonstrated a disciplined plate approach in 2024 with the Storm Chasers. His O-Swing% ranked in the 80th percentile. However, he was almost too patient, which seemed counter-intuitive at the plate.
Despite seeing a Zone% of 49.7% (which ranked in the 91st percentile), he had a Z-Swing% in the 22nd percentile. Furthermore, despite not chasing much in Omaha, he had a whiff rate that ranked in the 27th percentile and a K rate in the 6th percentile. Thus, it seemed like Triple-A pitching sometimes overwhelmed him in 2024.
Furthermore, the batted-ball metrics weren’t great either.
His xwOBA ranked in the 11th percentile, his 90th% EV ranked in the 42nd percentile, and his LA Sweet-Spot% ranked in the 16th percentile. Surprisingly, his barrel rate ranked in the 79th percentile, so he showed that he could launch balls effectively. However, the other batted ball metrics demonstrate that the contact quality was poor when he wasn’t barreling the balls. That’s not an encouraging sign about his outlook at the Major League level, which explains why he only got a brief cup of coffee with the Royals in 2024.
Gentry will likely repeat Triple-A in 2025, and I’ll chalk up some of his struggles adjusting to Triple-A competition. However, if a lot of these metrics transition to this upcoming season, it’s unlikely that Gentry will have much of a future with the Royals or any MLB team.
Joey Wiemer, OF
Wiemer was primarily acquired for his defense, as he should be an ideal replacement for Garrett Hampson, who played in center field against left-handed starting pitchers. However, the former Milwaukee and Cincinnati outfielder has much more power upside than Hampson, even if the contact ability lags behind the former Royals utility player.
The 25-year-old outfielder can hit the ball hard and with some authority when he gets a hold of it.
His 90th% EV ranked in the 80th percentile, and his Max EV ranked in the 94th percentile last season in Louisville, the Reds’ Triple-A organization. The hard hits didn’t always translate into “productive” contact, as his hard-hit rate ranked in the 26th percentile, and his barrel rate ranked in the 34th. A significant contributor to that could be his lackluster ability to launch the ball, as demonstrated by his 29.1% LA Sweet-Spot, which ranked in the 6th percentile.
However, Wiemer doesn’t chase, which may be why the Royals wanted the Reds to include him in the Brady Singer-Jonathan India trade.
In Louisville last year, his O-Swing% ranked in the 64th percentile, and his walk rate ranked in the 91st percentile. Considering the Royals’ “free-swinging” profile as a lineup last season, Wiemer offers a much-needed skill set off the bench.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Wiemer earn a spot on the Royals’ Opening Day roster as a fourth or fifth outfielder, especially if he can have a strong Cactus League campaign in Arizona.
Jordan Groshans, 3B/INF
Groshans has long been seen as a bit of a prospect “bust” as he failed to live up to his once top prospect hype in the Blue Jays organization. That said, even though he likely won’t live up to his once-massive upside, he could be a sneaky candidate to make the Opening Day roster.
For starters, the 25-year-old has some utility upside, as he can play multiple positions in the infield. Second, he didn’t chase (98th percentile O-Swing%) or whiff (91st percentile Whiff%) in Scranton Wilkes-Barre last season, the Yankees’ Triple-A club. He also can hit the ball hard, as evidenced by his 100th-percentile hard-hit rate and 99th-percentile average EV. Thus, he’s not a Nicky Lopez-type player who can make contact but can’t do much with it.
The main issue with Groshans is that he doesn’t launch the ball much, if at all. His LA Sweet Spot percentage ranked in the bottom 4th percentile, suppressing his wOBA to the 2nd percentile. While his xwOBA ranked in the 36th percentile, that still isn’t good enough for someone of Groshans’ experience.
He’s a bit of a dart throw for the Royals, especially since he’s on a Minor League contract. However, if the Royals’ hitting development team (led by Drew Saylor) can effectively tap into Groshans’ tools, he could fill that Adam Frazier role in 2025 at a much lower price.
John Rave, OF
Rave was eligible for the Rule 5 Draft but was not selected. That gives the Royals another year with the sneakily productive outfielder.
The 26-year-old outfielder hit .259 with a .815 OPS in 578 plate appearances in Omaha last season. He also hit 21 home runs and posted a .347 wOBA. Furthermore, he offered a lot of positive signs in his Statcast metrics a season ago.
Rave pulls the ball effectively, as his pull rate ranks in the 89th percentile, and his Pull FB% ranks in the 85th percentile. He also doesn’t chase or swing-and-miss much, as demonstrated by his 75th percentile O-Swing% and 67th percentile whiff rate. Lastly, he provided surprising pop for a player only 5’10 and 194 pounds, as his Max EV ranked in the 78th percentile, his barrel rate ranked in the 73rd percentile, and 90th% EV ranked in the 62nd percentile.
Even though those metrics were encouraging, his profile had a few red flags, which probably explains why he went undrafted in the Rule 5 Draft in December.
His xwOBA of .303 was 44 points lower than his actual wOBA and ranked in the 38th percentile. His average EV ranked in the 37th percentile, and his LA Sweet Spot percentage ranked in the 32nd percentile. Thus, much like Gentry, there was some inconsistency in his batted ball quality, which begs Royals fans to question his bat speed and ability to square balls up, both in Triple-A and at the MLB level.
Rave is still a player to watch, as a solid performance in Omaha in 2025 could force the Royals to give him a shot, much like CJ Alexander a season ago. Even if Rave isn’t the answer in the outfield long-term, he could be a nice trade chip at the Trade Deadline in 2025 if he has another solid campaign with the Storm Chasers.
Cam Devanney, SS/INF
Devanney was part of the Taylor Clarke trade with Milwaukee last offseason, and he proved to be a key cog to a Storm Chasers team that set a franchise record for wins in 2024.
In 525 plate appearances, the 27-year-old infielder hit .254 with a .781 OPS and 19 home runs. Devanney barreled balls at a surprising rate for a middle infielder, as evidenced by his 69th-percentile barrel percentage. Furthermore, his hard-hit rate ranked in the 59th percentile, and his average EV ranked in the 54th percentile. Thus, it’s possible to see Devanney as a nice utility infielder who could provide some pop off the bench.
The main drawback with Devanney is that he’s far too free-swinging in the box, which, unfortunately, only highlights his questionable contact skills.
His O-Swing% ranks in the 18th percentile, Whiff% in the 16th percentile, K% in the 25th percentile, and BB% in the 26th percentile. He doesn’t let many hittable balls go by him, as evidenced by his 97th percentile Zone-Swing%. However, the whiff and strikeout numbers negate those zone-swing% numbers, and his questionable pull metrics also deflate his outlook at the Major League level.
Devanney shouldn’t be slept on this season and in Spring Training, as any uptick in contact could make him more valuable as a utility infielder with the Royals. That said, he’s 27, and it’s unlikely that those skills will get much better with age in Triple-A.
Photo Credit: Peter Aiken / USA Today
Interesting. Much as I like Prato, his days in Royal Blue are numbered. I can see him and Massey get paired in a trade. Trish and is a former Marlin. That’s not happenstance. I looked at his minor league stats and there seems to be some talent. It seems like he’s been yanked this way and that in hitting, and that may have screwed him up. He has hit for average and has some natural power. If he sorts himself out, a .260-.280 hitter with twentysome homers is quite possible. If he starts swinging like I think he can, Massey is gone. Same applies to the OF. Wiemer should be on our roster this season. Same for Rave. I’d rope Waters and Gentry and tell them what they need to produce this year to make MLB. And not just in numbers, but in batting approach, fielding, base running. Etc… Waters should be told that If he fails. He will be traded so he’s not a total loss. We might even assign a “guru” to micromanage their development. We want them to fulfill the potential they seem to have. Waters is not far from making Renfroe expendable… Spring training may be eventful.
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter looks at Statcast data for Royals minor leaguers like Nick Pratto. […]
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter looks at Statcast data for Royals minor leaguers like Nick Pratto. […]
[…] On December 26th, I shared and analyzed the TJ Stats Triple-A Statcast cards of eight Royals hitters who primarily played in Triple-A in 2024. The article gave Royals fans some food for thought for what the Kansas City roster could look like when Spring Training starts in late February. […]