After previously analyzing the Steamer projections for Royals starting and relief pitchers, I am transitioning to analysis of Royals position players.
I will divide the Royals position player Steamer projection analysis posts into three categories: catchers, infielders, and outfielders. This post will focus primarily on Royals catchers and their outlooks for the upcoming 2025 season.
Because catching depth tends to be more shallow for MLB teams, the catcher analysis will be shorter than the other posts. Furthermore, I will dive into Royals catching prospects with Steamer projections, which I didn’t do with any Royals pitchers. I will analyze some Royals infield and outfield prospects, mainly because they are close to the MLB level (or could be with solid 2025 seasons).
Let’s look at the Royals catchers projected to be in Kansas City next year and what Royals fans can expect from them performance-wise.
Royals Catcher Projections for 2025
As Royals fans can see in the table above, I analyzed catchers by the following categories:
- PA: Plate appearances
- HR: Home Runs
- R: Runs
- RBI: Runs Batted In
- SB: Stolen Bases
- BB%: Walk rate
- K%: Strikeout rate
- BB/K: Walk to Strikeout ratio
- AVG: Average
- ISO: Isolated Slugging
- wOBA: Weighted On-Base Average
- BABIP: Batting Average of Balls in Play
- wRC+: Weighted Runs Created Plus
- BsR: Baserunning Runs Above Average
- Off: Offensive Runs Above Average
- Def: Defensive Runs Above Average
- WAR: Wins Above Replacement
- ADP: Average Draft Position
Royals catchers are ranked by their fWAR. Royals fans may notice that many catchers only have one plate appearance in their projections. That is usually because they will unlikely make their MLB debuts in 2025.
However, though Steamer will only give them a 1 PA projection, they will project other metrics regarding strikeout and walk rates and other “average” categories. That gives those looking at those projections a sense of what those players could do if they were promoted to the MLB level based on their previous Minor League performance in previous seasons.
This Baseball HQ article gives an idea about Minor League Equivalency, which affects the projections of Minor League players with no MLB experience (and not just Steamer, but other widespread MLB player projections).
Expect More of the Same From Salvy
Salvy had a down season in 2023, which spurred much speculation that he would be traded last offseason. In 580 plate appearances, Salvy hit 23 home runs, impressive for a catcher, but he also posted an 86 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR.
Last year, however, the Royals captain had a tremendous bounce-back season offensively, which heavily contributed to the Royals’ 30-win improvement from 2023.
In 652 plate appearances, he hit 27 home runs, lowered his K% from 23.3% to 19.8%, and improved his wRC+ to 115 and fWAR to 3.2. As a result of this impressive campaign, Salvy earned his fifth career Silver Slugger award.
Steamer is projecting another solid season from Salvy, albeit with some slight regression.
In 618 plate appearances, Salvy is projected to hit 26 home runs, collect 87 RBI, and post a 105 wRC+ and 2.0 fWAR. After posting a 0.34 BB/K ratio in 2024, Steamer is projecting Salvy to produce a 0.24 BB/K ratio. Steamer expects his K% to rise slightly to 21.9%, a 2.1% increase, and his BB% to decline to 5.3%, a 1.4% regression.
Roster Resource is projecting Salvy as the Royals’ cleanup hitter in 2025. With that kind of expected offensive production, the Royals should be in good shape at the top of the batting order, especially with Jonathan India expected to be the Royals’ new leadoff hitter, an upgrade from a season ago.
Fermin Brings Sneaky Value
Freddy Fermin was one of the Royals’ most significant success stories in 2024.
In 111 games and 368 plate appearances, Fermin hit .271 with six home runs, a .300 wOBA, 91 wRC+, and 1.9 fWAR. It was the second straight season that Fermin posted an fWAR above 1.5 (he posted a 1.8 fWAR in 70 games in 2023).
However, after a strong start, Fermin dropped off significantly after the All-Star Break.
After posting a 110 wRC+ before the All-Star Break, Fermin posted a 69 wRC+ in the second half. His BB/K ratio regressed from 0.40 to 0.29, his ISO dropped from .120 to .067, and his wOBA declined from .328 to .270. After being one of the better catchers overall in the first half, Fermin produced pedestrian stats after the Midsummer Classic.
Steamer seems to believe that Fermin can bounce back somewhat in 2025, even if he may not reach the heights of what he produced in the first half of last season.
In 271 plate appearances, the Venezuelan backup catcher is projected to hit seven home runs, post a 0.40 BB/K ratio, a .254 average, .138 ISO, .311 wOBA, 98 wRC+, and 1.5 fWAR. That wRC+ is eight points higher than last year, and his wOBA is 11 points better as well. Even though Fermin is projected fewer plate appearances (94 to be specific), he is projected to be more effective as a hitter next season, via Steamer.
Another positive aspect about Fermin’s projections is his strong defensive outlook.
Steamer is projecting to produce a Def of 6.6 in 2025. That is only 3.8 runs less than a year ago, and this is despite significantly fewer projected innings behind the plate.
While Salvy saw some slight improvement defensively in 2024, improving his Def from -8.5 in 2023 to 3.5 last year, he still lagged significantly behind Fermin. The Royals’ backup catcher produced a 10.4 Def in 2024, and also earned a Gold Glove nomination despite not being a primary catcher for Kansas City.
Fermin didn’t win his first Gold Glove, but getting a nomination showed the kind of impact he had metrically last season. It’s also encouraging to see Steamer project another solid season defensively in 2025, as his 6.6 Def mark is the 12th-best projected mark for catchers next season.
The Royals have a solid 1-2 punch behind the plate next year. Furthermore, having Fermin allows manager Matt Quatraro to play Salvy more at DH and first base, which preserves the Royals captain’s bat as well as his health next season.
How Close Are Jensen and Mitchell?
Two catching prospects who stood out from Steamer projections are Carter Jensen, who split time between High-A Quad Cities and Double-A Northwest Arkansas, and Blake Mitchell, who mostly played in Low-A Columbia, but got a late-season callup to Quad Cities for their playoff run.
Jensen is the more eye-popping prospect simply because he’s closer to the big leagues and the fact that he had a solid campaign in the Arizona Fall League.
In addition to posting a 137 wRC+in 376 plate appearances with the River Bandits, and a 112 wRC+ in 170 plate appearances with the Naturals, he hit .425 in 55 plate appearances with the Surprise Saguaros in the AFL. He also walked 14 times, struck out only 10 times, and hit four bombs, including this one below.
As for his projections, Steamer predicts Jensen to produce a .284 wOBA and 79 wRC+ with 10.5% BB%, 26% K%, and 0.40 BB/K ratio. To be honest, the plate discipline projections are encouraging to see, as his BB/K ratio tied with Fermin for the best mark of Royals catchers in this Steamer sample.
Jensen’s calling card as a prospect has been his plate discipline. Thankfully, Steamer believes that Jensen’s strongest tool is Major League ready, even if the contact and power tools may not quite be just there yet. That makes me optimistic that Jensen could be ready for a mid-to-late season call up in 2025, especially if he continues his progress in Northwest Arkansas and/or Triple-A Omaha.
Mitchell is a bit more of a project for next year, based on his Steamer projections.
Steamer projects Mitchell to hit .165 with a .228 wOBA and 40 wRC+. Furthermore, they expect him to post an 8.5% BB%, 34.6% K%, and 0.25 BB/K ratio.
Hence, it may be another year or two of development before Mitchell is ready for the Major League level. To be fair, that was to be expected, especially for a prep catcher who was drafted as recently as 2023.
Despite the meager projections, there’s a lot to be hopeful about when it comes to Mitchell’s long-term outlook with the Royals.
In 106 games and 466 plate appearances with the Fireflies, he hit .238 with 18 home runs and 64 runs scored. He also produced a .390 wOBA, 141 wRC+, and 0.56 BB/K ratio. Those numbers are a big reason why MLB Pipeline named him the Royals’ position player prospect of the year.
Mitchell still struck out a high amount in the Low-A Carolina League, as evidenced by a 30.5% mark. Furthermore, those swing-and-miss issues transitioned to Quad Cities.
He not only struck out 35% of the time, but he also only produced a .169 wOBA and 1 wRC+ in 18 plate appearances with the River Bandits. Mitchell’s rough High-A sample and the high strikeout rates probably explain why his Steamer projections aren’t as rosy for 2025.
Then again, it was only a five-game sample for Mitchell and he had a rough small sample in 2023 in Low-A as well. In 52 plate appearances in the Arizona Complex League, he struck out 26.9% of the time and only posted a 93 wRC+. Thus, to see him take such a step up in Columbia after a rough start in the Rookie Complex League shows that Mitchell can adjust as he gets more plate appearances at the next level.
The Quad Cities numbers may be weighing his projections and prospect status for now. However, don’t be surprised to see Mitchell bounce back with a solid campaign in High-A ball in 2025.
Another season of progression from Mitchell should give Royals fans hope that they have plenty of options available in the Minors to possibly replace Salvy when he becomes a free agent after the 2026 season.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Frank Franklin II