On Tuesday, the Royals added three arms to the 40-man roster. MLB teams had until 6 p.m. to protect eligible prospects from the Rule 5 Draft.
With the addition of Evan Sisk earlier in November, the Royals have added four new arms to the 40-man roster this offseason, bringing their 40-man roster total to 37.
For now, that gives the Royals flexibility to either add to the roster via free agency without having to designate someone for assignment or perhaps make a selection in the December Rule 5 Draft (they can draft someone as long as they have a spot on their 40-man roster). Last season, the Royals drafted Matt Sauer, who ended up being returned to the Yankees organization after a rough start.
What can Royals fans expect from Cameron, Avila, and Ceranotla, who all saw innings in Triple-A Omaha a season ago? And who are unprotected players in the Royals organization who could get plucked in the Rule 5 Draft in less than a month?
Here are three takeaways from the Royals’ Tuesday roster moves.
Don’t Be Surprised to See Cameron Compete for a Rotation Spot
Cameron was probably the least surprising addition of the three on Tuesday.
The St. Joseph product had an inconsistent 2022 in Double-A Northwest Arkansas, posting a 6.10 ERA and 5.40 FIP in 72.1 IP with the Naturals. However, a big issue for Cameron that season was a decline in fastball velocity, which led to a high HR/FB rate, not just in Northwest Arkansas (18.7%) but also in Quad Cities (22.7%). The 2022 season was Cameron’s first pro season coming off Tommy John, and he admitted in an interview with us on “KC Chase to the Pennant” that he broke down a bit in his first stint in professional ball and that maintaining fastball velocity was a priority for him.
Last season, the hard work paid off as Cameron was studly at both the Double-A and Triple-A levels.
In 16 starts and 74.1 IP with the Naturals, the left-handed starter posted a 3.63 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and K-BB% of 19.3% (highlighted by a 27% K rate). The strong performance earned Cameron a call-up to Omaha and proved even better at the higher level of play.
With the Storm Chasers, he made nine starts and pitched 54.1 innings. He posted a 2.32 ERA, 3.39 FIP, and 23.8% K-BB% (with a 29% K rate) in that sample. Cameron was particularly incredible in August, as he won International League Pitcher of the Month honors after posting a 1.71 ERA in five starts (including a 10-strikeout outing on August 31st).
The 25-year-old Central Arkansas product prioritized fastball development in the offseason, and he seemed to showcase a fastball that was a reliable option in 2024. Statcast metrics are available in Triple-A, and here’s how his fastball metrics fared last season via Savant.
As Royals fans can see, he didn’t have incredible velocity or extension on the pitch. He only averaged 91.5 MPH with a perceived velocity of 91.3 MPH (which demonstrates he had a slightly below-average extension).
However, his spin rate of 2,173 RPM was high on the fastball, and the batted ball results were impressive. He only allowed a barrel rate of 7.1% and a hard-hit rate of 28.2%. That’s encouraging to see from a fastball that he throws 50.9% of the time.
Although the fastball wasn’t a dominant pitch, it led to tremendous success on his other pitches. That was particularly true with his breaking pitches, as he posted more impressive strikeout and whiff metrics with his secondary pitches.
That doesn’t happen if he doesn’t establish proper control and command of his fastball offerings. For context, let’s compare his detailed pitch zone chart, which shows where Cameron located pitches in the zone, and his corresponding K% zone chart to see how they correlate.
Cameron threw many pitches in the zone, raiding the middle and edges. That led to strikeouts on those edges, especially in the lower part of the zone (which had 30+ K rates) and the lower chase area (which had 60+ rates).
He also seemed to command his pitches well and maintain the velocity he needed to have season-long success. His pitch velocity chart via Savant showed consistent velocity trends with all his pitches throughout his Omaha campaign. His fastball velocity got BETTER by the end of the season, especially after he scrapped the usage of his cutter.
Cameron has four pitches, but he seems to really prefer three: his four-seamer, curveball, and cutter. I would be curious to see what pitching coaches Brian Sweeney and Zach Bove can do with Cameron’s arsenal in Spring Training, especially since the Royals emphasize adding pitches to pitchers’ repertoire.
I don’t think Cameron will make the rotation out of Spring Training, but he will certainly have a shot to do so, especially if the Royals don’t make any more significant starting pitcher moves this offseason. If he can adjust to Sweeney and Bove’s tutelage and perhaps diversify his pitch mix slightly more, he could be a surprisingly effective end-of-the-rotation starter for the Royals long term.
Cameron’s development from a season ago and his addition to the 40-man roster may also explain why the Royals are shopping starter Brady Singer on the trade market, despite Singer being an effective No. 4 starter for the Royals in 2024.
Avila and Cerantola Are Bullpen Projects Who Could Contribute
The Royals also added Avila and Cerantola to the 40-man roster on Tuesday, and they are two intriguing arms who may be a little behind Cameron in terms of development. Both pitchers saw much more time in Northwest Arkansas than Omaha last year, with Avila posting a 3.81 ERA in 82.2 IP and Certantola posting a 2.78 ERA in 58.1 IP.
Avila is the more high profile of the two, primarily since he pitched in the Arizona Fall League. With the Surprise Saguaros, the 22-year-old Venezuelan posted a 3.07 ERA and struck out 17 while walking 8 in five outings and 14.2 IP.
Control has been an issue for Avila as a prospect in the Royals system. Even though he had a 3.81 ERA and 3.76 FIP with the Naturals last year, he only had a 10.9% K-BB%. That was primarily due to a 12% walk rate, which weighed down his 22.9% K rate.
He only made one appearance with the Storm Chasers last year, but command and control was an issue in that outing. He gave up five runs on five hits and four walks while striking out three in 4.1 IP.
Below is a look at how his pitch breakdown chart fared from that outing and how he struggled to locate his curveball.
The good thing for the Royals is that they have time to develop Avila, especially since he has three option years and will be only 23 years old in 2025. Thus, Kansas City can still develop him as a starter if they want, even though his ultimate outlook may be more as a reliever.
As for Cerantola, he’s a reliever at this point in his career. He only made seven starts in 24 appearances with the Naturals, and he didn’t make a single start in 13 outings with the Storm Chasers. However, his stuff was good enough to produce excellent results at both levels.
In 58.1 IP with Northwest Arkansas, he posted a 2.78 ERA but had a 4.16 FIP and 15.1 K-BB%. Like Avila, control was an issue for Cerantola in Double-A, as he sported a 16.3% walk rate. The inconsistency in control was a big reason why Cerantola transitioned to the bullpen full-time last year (and when he did start, it was more as an “opener.”)
However, Cerantola’s control got sharper when he moved to Omaha.
The ERA went up to 3.77, and his FIP went up to 5.38 in 14.1 IP. Those increases seemed to be due to a crazy spike in HR/FB% (27.3%). Conversely, his walk rate fell to 12.5%, and his K-BB% increased to 18.8% with the Storm Chasers. Thus, even though he gave up a lot of hard hits, he was generating more whiffs and fewer walks, which was an encouraging sign.
Cerantola was primarily a two-pitch reliever in Omaha, relying solely on his four-seamer and slider (he only threw the changeup sparingly). He could at least pump the gas on the four-seamer, as it seemed to range between 94-98 MPH based on the pitch velocity trend data via Savant.
Like Avila, Sweeney and Bove will likely work with Cerantola and his pitch mix and shape in Surprise this spring. Hopefully, Ceranotla can make some proper tweaks to prepare him for a spot in the Royals bullpen in the second half of the 2025 season.
Champlain Could Be a Rule 5 Target
One omission from the Royals’ 40-man roster moves was Chandler Champlain, acquired from the Yankees in the Andrew Benintendi trade in 2022 (along with fellow pitchers Beck Way and TJ Sikkema). Champlain was seen as the Royals’ “toughest Rule 5 Draft decision” in a recent MLB.com article, and here’s what they said about Champlain in the piece.
Royals: Chandler Champlain, RHP (No. 16)
Part of the Andrew Benintendi trade with the Yankees in 2022, Champlain hit the wall after he advanced to Triple-A this May, logging a 5.61 ERA with 46 walks vs. 72 strikeouts in 104 1/3 innings. He has good feel for spinning the ball, producing natural cutting action on his 92-95 mph fastball and fashioning both a mid-80s slider and upper-70s curve.
I’ve been torn on Champlain as a pitching prospect, as his Triple-A numbers were not good. However, at the beginning of the season, he was excellent with the Naturals, posting a 3.50 ERA, 2.94 FIP, and K-BB% of 29.5% in seven starts and 36 IP. Unfortunately, his 5.61 ERA, 5.74 FIP, and 5.6% K-BB% in 104.1 IP with the Storm Chasers overshadowed his 2024 Minor League performance and not in a positive light (though he did flashes of brilliance in Omaha occasionally).
I was torn between Champlain and Cerantola regarding who to add to the 40-man roster. Honestly, if I could only have chosen one, I would’ve leaned toward Champlain, mostly because he’s got a more diverse repertoire than Cerantola.
Unfortunately, Champlain didn’t produce results like Cerantola, especially regarding strikeouts and whiffs. Champlain’s 15.6% K rate and 18.6 whiff rate were much lower than Cerantola’s 31.7% K rate and 40.5% whiff rate. Furthermore, Champlain didn’t dominate any particular areas of the strike zone last year, unlike Cerantola, based on their respective whiff rate zone charts via Savant.
Champlain did throw 1,486 more pitches in Triple-A than Cerantola last year. It is certainly possible that Champlain could look a lot more impressive in a revised role out of the bullpen, which may be his outlook after such a rough year as a starter in Triple-A.
That said, it has been easy to root for Champlain, who seems to have a solid work ethic and responded to the feedback given to him by the Royals’ pitching development team when he came over from the Yankees, as shared in our podcast interview with him last spring.
I hope this isn’t for Champlain in Kansas City. He is a good dude who can thrive in a transition to the bullpen in 2025 (or with more refinement in his pitch shape and mix, should he want to stay in the rotation).
On the flip side, the Royals do an excellent job of protecting players they know will get drafted and not protecting those who wouldn’t get selected anyway.
Hence, even though Champlain has more upside than Cerantola, I wonder if the chatter about Cerantola getting selected in the Rule 5 Draft was louder than Champlain, which prompted JJ Picollo to protect the former Mississippi State product than the Southern California one.
Photo Credit: Minda Haas Kuhlmann/Omaha Storm Chasers
[…] to sport a 4.50 ERA, 4.38 FIP, and 1.6 fWAR in 38 games (28 starts) and 159 IP. Lastly, Cameron, who was just added to the 40-man roster this month, is projected for a 4.05 ERA, 4.09 FIP, and 0.5 fWAR in 32 appearances (six starts) and 63 […]
[…] Royals added Cameron to the 40-man roster this offseason after a solid 2024 in Double-A Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha. He was particularly good with […]