On Friday afternoon, the Royals selected the contract of Minor League reliever Evan Sisk. Sisk has pitched the last two seasons in Omaha and was acquired from the Twins, along with Steven Cruz, in the Michael A. Taylor trade after the 2022 season.
Sisk had a solid season last year in Omaha after a subpar 2023.
Sisk had a 6.34 ERA, 1.55 K/BB ratio, and 4.98 FIP in 61 IP in his first season with the Storm Chasers. Last year, though, he produced a 1.57 ERA, 3.12 K/BB ratio, and 2.26 FIP in 57.1 IP. The lefty saw a significant increase in his K% from 2022 to 2023, from 21.4% to 35.4% in one season.
It seemed that Sisk responded well to the Royals’ pitching development team in 2024.
Sam Dykstra of MLB Pipeline highlighted his aptitude against left-handed hitters last season and his vertical release, which seemed to aid an improvement in his sinker and slider, his two primary pitches.
I used Savant to analyze Sisk’s fastball and breaking ball metrics and compare them to three other left-handed relievers who spent extensive time in Omaha. Those other three relievers were Walter Pennington (later traded to Texas for Michael Lorenzen), Austin Cox, and Angel Zerpa. Cox and Zerpha have seen time in the Majors, with Zerpa spending most of his 2024 season with the Royals.
Here’s a look at how the pitchers compared regarding fastball pitches:
Of the four, Sisk’s fastball pitches generated the best xwOBA and whiff rate and lowest hard-hit rate. The 91.4 MPH perceived velocity (which factors extension) on his fastballs was lower than Zerpa’s 95.5 MPH mark but considerably better than Pennington’s (88.9 MPH) and Cox’s (89 MPH).
Now, let’s look at their breaking ball metrics from last season via Savant:
Sisk was even more impressive in this category.
His breaking offerings had the most glove-side movement of the four, and he also sported the lowest xwOBA, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity on batted balls with his breaking ball pitches. His breaking ball whiff rate also was 41.1%, not as high as Pennington, but better than Zerpa (36.2%) and Cox (37.9%).
Thus, this data shows that Sisk was worthy of a spot on the 40-man roster for the 2025 season, making trading away Pennington much more tolerable. Essentially, Sisk is similar to Pennington and holds a bit more upside due to the movement on his breaking pitches and his history as a more heralded prospect in the Twins and Royals systems (compared to Pennington, who didn’t stand out as a prospect until this past season).
Sisk will have Minor League options, so he probably won’t start on the Opening Day roster in 2025 unless he excels in Spring Training in Arizona. Zerpa, Kris Bubic, Sam Long, and Daniel Lynch IV are favorites to earn spots in the Royals bullpen on Opening Day, especially after they had strong finishes to the 2024 season.
Conversely, Long is out of Minor League options, which gives him less roster flexibility, even though he should not cost a lot (he still is in pre-arbitration).
While Long did post a 3.16 ERA and 3.89 FIP in 42.2 IP in his first season in Kansas City, he did post a 4.74 in 45 IP with Oakland in 2023 and a 5.07 FIP in 42.1 IP with San Francisco in 2022. If Long regresses to those 2022 and 2023 forms, seeing Sisk replace Long on the Royals’ active roster wouldn’t be surprising.
What Other Arms Could Be Added?
According to MLB.com’s Anne Rogers, the Royals added Sisk because he was soon eligible to be a Minor League free agent, and they didn’t want to lose him.
The Royals must add other arms to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 Draft this December. Four arms in particular stick out: Chandler Champlain, Luinder Avila, Noah Cameron, and Eric Cerantola.
All four arms saw time in Double-A and Triple-A in 2024. However, Statcast only has data available from Triple-A.
Below is a look at how all four pitchers fared in different Statcast metrics during their times in Omaha. As Royals fans can see, the results were mixed due to wildly different pitch samples among the four Royals pitching prospects.
Cameron seems the most likely to be added after an outstanding season in 2024. The former 7th-round pick produced a 3.21 FIP in Northwest Arkansas and a 3.39 FIP in Omaha. He also had a 29.4% K rate and a paltry 5.2% with the Storm Chasers in 54.1 IP.
It was expected that Cameron would produce dominating outings night in and night out, like this one below in Omaha.
Champlain didn’t have as strong a season with the Storm Chasers.
He had a 5.60 ERA in Triple-A in 104.1 IP, and he only produced a K rate of 15.6% and a BB rate of 10%. He was much better in Double-A (3.50 ERA and 2.94 FIP in 36 IP), and he could see much better results in a possible move to the bullpen. Acquired from the Yankees in the Andrew Benintendi trade in 2022, Champlain could be added to the Royals’ 40-man and be a project for the Royals’ Pitching Development team like Alec Marsh.
Avila and Cerantola seem less likely than Cameron and Champlain to be added to the 40-man roster, especially after the Sisk move. Cerantola could not be added and probably won’t be selected in the Rule 5 Draft, especially since he is a reliever only at this point in his development.
Avila is a more challenging situation.
The 23-year-old has slowly improved each season as a prospect in the Royals system. He posted a 3.81 ERA in 82.2 IP with the Naturals in 2024, the first time he’s posted an ERA under four at any full-season level. He also has gotten a lot of buzz this fall in the Arizona Fall League, thanks to his high-spin slider and 97-MPH fastball.
It’s easy to see a team select Avila in the Rule 5 Draft and ease him into the bullpen with the hope that he can maybe start in the long term (when they can be more flexible with his roster spot and perhaps option him to Triple-A for development). His profile resembles former Rule 5 pick Dany Jimenez, who had a big arm but suffered from some command issues in the Minors.
Thus, the Royals may add him to protect him from other clubs picking him in December.
That said, if they add him, that likely means the end for Carlos Hernandez or Jonathan Bowlan, who are both out of Minor League options.
The Royals have already taken care of one dilemma this offseason with Sisk.
Now, we will see how they will handle other roster dilemmas with Cameron, Champlain, Cerantola, and Avila.
Photo Credit: 2023 / Minor League Baseball Photos / Minda Haas Kuhlmann
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