The Royals punched their ticket to the postseason on Friday night. Furthermore, they earned the fifth seed in the AL Playoff bracket thanks to their season-ending victory against the Atlanta Braves on Sunday.
As a result, the 86-76 Royals will travel to Baltimore for a best-of-three series against the 91-71 Orioles, the top Wild-Card seed in the American League. All games will be played around 4 PM EST at Camden Yards (3 PM CST) Tuesday through Thursday.
With games starting tomorrow, I wanted to look at key metrics from both teams that could give an idea of what Royals fans should expect from this Wild Cards series featuring two up-and-coming squads that faced each other a decade ago in the ALCS.
2-4; 27 runs scored and 29 runs allowed
The Royals have two wins in six matchups this season with the Orioles. However, as Royals fans can see, the run differential between the two teams is only two runs (in Baltimore’s favor).
Both series took place in April, with the Orioles being the Royals’ first “road opponent” of the 2024 season.
In the Orioles series in Camden Yards from April 1st to April 3rd, Kansas City lost on walk-off hits in games one (6-4) and three (3-2). A couple of weeks later, Baltimore traveled to Kansas City for a weekend series from April 19th to April 21st. They took two of three from the Royals, winning 9-7 on April 20th and 5-0 on April 21st, thanks to a sterling performance from Cole Irvin, who’s no longer on the roster. Kansas City did win the first game of the series 9-4, as Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez went yard.
The Royals struggled against the Orioles on the road with their bullpen, which gave away two leads in the late innings. Thankfully for Royals fans, the Kansas City bullpen has been one of the best groups in baseball in the past month, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com highlighted. (I also quoted him in his tweet with the run value metrics of the 2014 bullpen, and it’s eerie how closely they compare month-by-month statistically.)
The Orioles won five more games than the Royals and took the season series to boot.
That said, these two teams played each other closely this season. If things had gone differently, especially in Baltimore back in early April, the Royals could’ve easily won the season series against the Orioles 4-2.
28.8 fWAR vs. 20.0 fWAR
The Orioles ranked fourth overall in position player fWAR with a 28.8 mark. The Royals ranked 16th with a 20 fWAR, which put them ahead of playoff teams like the Tigers (who ranked 17th) and Atlanta (who ranked 18th).
Despite having solid fWAR marks, both teams accomplished their numbers differently.
The Orioles have leaned heavily on their bats this season regarding position player success.
Their 115 wRC+ ranks third in baseball, and they have also hit the second-most home runs as a team in baseball with 235. Gunnar Henderson, Colton Cowser, and Anthony Santander have been the primary home run catalysts for this squad, as they have launched 37, 24, and 44 this season, respectively.
While the offense has been a powerhouse, especially on a power end, the baserunning and defense have not been as impressive.
According to Fangraphs’ Def, their 29.5 runs below average mark ranks 20th in the league, and their -0.1 BsR ranks 16th. Granted, that’s not terrible, but it pales compared to the Royals in those categories.
The Royals’ 16-runs above-average mark ranks third in the league, behind only the Blue Jays and the Yankees. On the baserunning end, Kansas City has produced a BsR of nine, which ranks 7th overall. That makes up for the 170 total home runs they have hit this year, which ranks 20th.
Then again, Bobby Witt, Jr. has 32 home runs, and Salvy has 27 home runs this year, so the ability to hit the big fly and accumulate runs in that fashion is still possible.
Thus, this week at Camden Yards, it will be a battle between Kansas City’s speed and defense and Baltimore’s power. The Royals have the advantage in two of those three categories. That should encourage Royals fans to be hopeful about Kansas City pulling off the Wild Card upset.
2.77 Bullpen ERA vs. 5.31 Bullpen ERA
In the Petriello tweet above, I mentioned how this Royals bullpen suddenly looks like a dominant group after being bashed by Royals fans for most of the season.
In September, the Royals bullpen, led by Trade Deadline acquisition Lucas Erceg and starters-turned-relievers Kris Bubic and Daniel Lynch IV, produced a 2.77 ERA, the fifth-best bullpen ERA of any team in baseball.
The same can’t be said of the Orioles.
The Baltimore bullpen faded a bit throughout the season, and in September, they posted an ERA of 5.31. That was the second-worst mark in baseball in September, only ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks (who missed out on the postseason thanks to the Mets and Braves splitting today).
The Orioles have struggled to find a consistent closer. They currently have Seranthony Dominguez in the spot (they acquired him from the Phillies in exchange for Austin Hays), and they also let go of longtime closer Craig Kimbrel, who just wasn’t effective in 2024 with Baltimore.
The Royals should have a slight edge on paper in terms of rotation. Even though Baltimore has Corbin Burnes, who has long been an ace in the league, the Royals’ 1-2-3 trio of Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Michael Wacha fares better than the Orioles’ trio of Burnes-Zach Eflin-Dean Kremer.
For Kansas City to have an advantage over Baltimore on the pitching side, the Royals bullpen must continue transitioning their excellent September performance into October.
If the Royals bullpen continues to perform, they will not only have a chance to beat the Orioles this week in the AL Wild Card round but could also make a run to the World Series, much like in 2014.
Three Questions Regarding the Royals Postseason Roster
In my latest post for “Farm to Fountains,” I discussed three questions the Royals need to answer before unveiling their AL Wild Card roster on Tuesday morning. Every playoff team needs to trim its roster from 28 to 26, and the Royals have some tough decisions to make, especially regarding position players.
The biggest question for the Royals roster-wise is this: Will Vinnie Pasquantino be activated and play in the AL Wild Card series in Baltimore?
Here’s what I said in my FTF post about Vinnie’s outlook for the Wild Card round:
If the Royals want to make any run in the postseason, the bats will need to pick up.
To do that, it may be necessary for the Royals to activate Vinnie off the IL. It does sound like the Royals still need to do some tests to confirm and preserve Vinnie’s long-term health. That said, it sounds like Vinnie wants to go, and the lineup needs the jolt of energy that Vinnie will provide.
If Vinnie is ready to go, he probably will see more time at DH than at first base, especially since he injured his thumb in the first place on a defensive play.
For more on Pasquantino’s outlook and my breakdown of the other two Royals roster questions, check out “Farm to Fountains” and subscribe to daily updates. We have also added a forum section to the site, allowing Royals fans to engage with other fans on the site over various topics.
Make “Farm to Fountains” a daily part of your Royals-related reading, especially if you want the most up-to-date stuff on Royals prospects and the MLB Draft.
Photo Credit: Jason Allen/AP
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