Since the start of September, the Royals’ hitting has scuffled a bit, not helped by the loss of Vinnie Pasquantino, who went on the IL due to a broken thumb on August 31st.
According to Fangraphs, the Royals rank 28th in wRC+ with a 65 mark. Tommy Pham has been a massive boost to their lineup, posting a 144 wRC+ in 44 plate appearances this month. However, only four Royals hitters have a wRC+ month over 100 this month, with Salvador Perez (122) and Hunter Renfroe (123) being the only other regular players beyond Pham in that category.
For the Royals to clinch their first postseason appearance since 2015, they will need some hitters to step up, especially after Pham, Salvy, and Witt. One hitter the Royals will depend on this month is MJ Melendez, who has been having a solid second half, much like in 2023.
Since the All-Star Break, Melendez is hitting .236 with a .319 wOBA and 103 wRC+ in 135 plate appearances. In the first half, he posted a .196 average, .282 wOBA, and 77 wRC+.
However, after posting 114 wRC+ in July and 160 wRC+ in August, Melendez cooled significantly in September.
So far this month, he has hit .129 with a wRC+ of 30 in 36 plate appearances. He is still drawing a lot of walks (13.9%) and showing a disciplined approach at the plate (0.49 BB/K ratio). Conversely, he is not providing a lot of thump in the lineup, as his .065 ISO is his worst mark in a month this season.
The Royals have been shuffling through many options in the cleanup spot behind Salvy to get this lineup going, with Michael Massey hitting there on Friday night. Melendez seemed like the most logical choice to slide in there with Vinnie out, especially since Melendez has hit 17 home runs this season.
Unfortunately, he’s struggled in that place in the batting order, as evidenced by his 36.3% K rate and -42 wRC+ in the cleanup spot (albeit a small sample).
Many Royals fans, including Jack Johnson of the “Locked on Royals” podcast, have discussed Melendez’s struggles this month and his role going forward for the remainder of the season.
If Melendez can snap out of his early September slump, not only could he help boost this lineup down the stretch, but he could be a crucial offseason discussion for the Royals, especially with him starting arbitration next season.
A Look at MJ’s Struggles in September
It hasn’t been a great September for Melendez, and his rolling wOBA chart demonstrates that he’s seen a dip in his most recent string of plate appearances.
It’s not as bad as the dip he saw back at the beginning of the season (around May), but there has been a noticeable dip in performance since around his 360th plate appearance.
His increase in strikeouts over this timespan has significantly contributed to this regression.
Melendez has made some encouraging gains in lowering his strikeouts this season. After posting a 28.2% K rate in 2023, he has reduced his rate to 24.3% in 2024. Even though he is chasing a bit more this year (30.4% O-Swing%), he has done much better at making contact. His contact rate increased from 68.6% in 2023 to 74.3% in 2024, and his Z-Contact (contact on pitches in the strike zone) improved from 76% in 2023 to 81.4% in 2024.
However, his K rates have increased again in the past month, as evidenced by his rolling K% chart via Savant.
Even though the strikeouts have been discouraging, Melendez’s recent “slump” may only be temporary, especially considering his batted-ball metrics.
As of Saturday, his BABIP is .200, his lowest mark in that category since March/April. He is also hitting the ball more on the ground in September. His GB/FB ratio is 1.57, the season’s highest mark of any month.
His average launch angle sweet-spot% rolling chart also confirms that Melendez has been hitting the ball too much on the ground recently, which has resulted in more outs and fewer hits at the plate.
On the flip side, it’s not as if he’s hitting the ball less hard at the plate.
According to Fangraphs, his hard-hit rate is down this month to 30%, his lowest mark since March/April. However, via his hard-hit rate rolling chart via Savant, he’s been seeing a bit of an upswing recently after a period of regression.
Hitting the ball hard has always been Melendez’s calling card as a hitter. Thus, based on his hard-hit rolling chart, it looks like he may finally be getting back into a groove after seeing his hard-hit rate dip below league average around the 260th batted-ball range.
Furthermore, Melendez has always seen his xwOBA outperform his wOBA. Last season, his xwOBA was .325, and his wOBA was .310. This season, there has been a similar trend. His xwOBA is .322, and his wOBA is .294.
Unsurprisingly, his xwOBA rolling chart looks much more encouraging than his wOBA chart, which hints that his slump this month could start to end soon, much to the Royals’ benefit.
The good thing about Melendez’s struggles is that manager Matt Quatraro can be a little more diplomatic with how he utilizes Melendez in the lineup. The acquisitions of Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman, who can play the corner outfield positions, allow Q to give Melendez days off, especially against left-handed starting pitchers.
Nonetheless, while Pham and Grossman give the Royals a decent performance floor at the corner outfield positions, neither player has the power upside of Melendez both in 2024 and beyond.
Why This Month is Crucial For Melendez’s Long-Term Outlook
Melendez has had a peculiar season, as it’s tough to truly distinguish if Melendez can be a long-term option in the outfield for the Royals.
On one end, he has 17 home runs in 423 plate appearances and seems primed to surpass his mark of 18 home runs in his rookie season in 2022. He has also seen a defensive improvement at the Major League level over the past three years, as his Def rating has gone from 20.3 runs below average in 2022 to 12.4 runs below average in 2023 to 7.1 runs below average this year. His outfield defense has notably improved as his DRS and OAA have gone from -14 and -11 in 2022, respectively, to -6 and -5.
He also has shown a propensity to make sensational catches, like this one below against the Guardians on August 26th.
Conversely, his overall metrics have still been subpar this year, and he has not seen much improvement since his rookie season.
After posting a 97 wRC+ in 2022, he has seen his wRC+ decline to 91 in 2023 and 85 this year. Furthermore, after posting an fWAR of 0.3 in 2023 (better than his -0.7 fWAR in 2022), he only has an fWAR of -0.2 this year in 124 games. While ZiPS projects that he should post a 105 wRC+ down the stretch, they also project a 0.0 fWAR during that time. Therefore, it’s likely that Melendez is a negative fWAR player for the second time in three seasons.
Melendez could finish his third year with a career fWAR of -0.6. That is not promising for a player eligible for arbitration this offseason.
Melendez will be an intriguing arbitration case as he will be their primary position-player case this winter. All the other players on the Royals’ 40-man roster under arbitration are pitchers, and the Royals have been a lot more willing to go year-to-year with pitchers.
Recently, JJ Picollo and the Royals front office have been more willing to trade away position players in arbitration who didn’t have a “long-term” outlook. For example, they traded away Nicky Lopez in 2023 at the Trade Deadline. This past offseason, they traded away Edward Olivares to Pittsburgh. Both players were in their arbitration years at the time of their trades.
Picollo has opted to fill their roles with veterans on short-term deals. Adam Frazier has filled the Lopez role while Hunter Renfroe replaced Olivares. Lopez has been bad offensively, but his defense has made him a 0.8 fWAR player with the White Sox. Renfroe, though, has been a significant upgrade over Olivares this season.
Thus, if Melendez continues this slide in September, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals part ways with Melendez to avoid the expense of having to negotiate a deal for him year after year until he becomes a free agent in 2029. The Royals could bring back Pham on a one-year contract for another season to replace Melendez as the regular left-fielder. Renfroe will likely be back, as he should exercise his player option this offseason.
If Pham and Renfroe return, Melendez’s playing time in 2025 looks slim, making him more of a trade candidate than a long-term piece in Kansas City. If the Royals need a platoon outfielder, they could be better off utilizing Nelson Velazquez or Tyler Gentry, who will be much cheaper than Melendez.
However, if Melendez can get hot at the plate over the next two weeks and somehow be a positive fWAR player by the end of the season? If he can be the guy who can help the Royals get to the postseason and perhaps be a contributor in the playoffs as well?
Then it isn’t out of the question to think that Melendez is an extension candidate this offseason.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel