There’s no question that Vinnie Pasquantino has been one of the Royals’ key hitters this season. Of his 510 plate appearances this season, 506 have come in the No. 3 spot in the batting order between Bobby Witt, Jr. and Salvador Perez.
In that crucial spot in the batting order, Pasquantino has produced.
Vinnie leads all Royals hitters with 92 RBI (93 after his RBI tonight), and he ranks third in home runs, third in runs scored, fifth in wRC+, and fourth in fWAR. After only playing 61 games this season, Pasquantino has been a durable and dependable force in the Royals lineup, appearing in 122 games between first base and designated hitter.
Pasquantino has been particularly productive after the All-Star Break, as Fantrax’s Eric Cross pointed out today on Twitter:
Regarding position players, Vinnie is undoubtedly the third-most valuable player behind Witt and Salvy. However, what is his long-term outlook with the Royals, and should Kansas City explore giving an extension to Pasquantino this offseason?
Looking deeper into his data profile, I see that he is a peculiar case, making it a bit hazy to project for the remainder of this season, 2025, and beyond.
Vinnie Continues to Make Contact and Hit the Ball Hard
When looking at Pasquantino’s Process+ rolling chart this season, his ability to make contact at the plate has continued to be the biggest strength of his hitting profile in 2024.
As Royals fans can see, his contact ability has stayed in the 110 to 130 level for pretty much the entire season. Even though his other skills, such as decision-making and power, have waned or been inconsistent, his contact ability has ranked among the best in the league. That is especially evident when looking at his contact ability separately and where it ranks across the league.
Pasquantino’s Contact Ability+ dipped under the 90th percentile around early June. Since then, though, it’s remained far above the 90th percentile, a sign of his prowess at the plate when putting the bat on the ball.
Furthermore, Pasquantino has excelled at more than just making contact this season. He’s been hitting the ball much harder in 2024 than he did a year ago. Last season, his hard-hit rate was only 40.3%. This year, that rate is 46.4%, only 0.5% lower than it was in his rookie season in 2022.
When looking at his hard-hit rolling chart data via Savant, Pasquantino got off to a slow start when making hard contact. However, once he surpassed the MLB average mark, he’s been above average for most of the season.
Thus, Royals fans should be encouraged about Vinnie’s ability to hit the ball at the Major League level in the long term.
Over a three-year sample, the former 11th-round pick out of Old Dominion has demonstrated an excellent ability to make contact at the plate frequently and hit the ball with authority.
The Power and Decision-Making Are Concerns
While Pasquantino does have 18 home runs this season, his power has been inconsistent, which isn’t what Royals fans want to see from a hitter who hits third in the batting order.
The biggest issue for Pasquantino is he struggles to barrel the ball consistently. His barrel rate is only 7.6% this year, which ranks in the 45th percentile of the league. That barrel rate is the same as 2023, and a 1.3% decline from 2022.
His Power+ PLV data also showcases Vinnie’s inconsistencies with hitting for power this season. While he did touch the 90th percentile earlier this season in Power+, he has seen his mark drop down to as low as the 10th percentile (though it seems like he’s recovering a bit since the All-Star Break).
A significant contributor to his inconsistent power is his inability to launch the ball consistently, which has dogged him since his rookie season.
His LA Sweet-Spot% is currently 33.4%, which is 4.4% lower than a year ago and down 0.7% from his rookie season. His rolling LA Sweet-Spot% over his career also demonstrates that he’s seen some wild lows in this category, much like his Power+ PLV.
If Vinnie wants to mature as a power hitter, he must see better launch angle outcomes. However, that may be easier said than done, considering his swing decision-making at the plate this season.
Below is a look at his Hitter Heatmaps via PLV this season. Royals fans need to notice where he rates above and below average in decision-making this season (and how his other heatmaps correspondingly compare).
Based on these heatmaps, a red flag for him is the concentration of red in swing frequency in the upper outside part of the zone and the blue in the same zones in the decision-making and power heatmaps. That is a sign that he’s swinging too much in areas of the strike zone where he can’t produce power or productive at-bats.
For a hitter who was lauded for his plate discipline as a prospect in the Royals system prior to 2022, seeing those kinds of decision-making issues has been particularly surprising. It hasn’t resulted in many strikeouts (his 12.9% K rate ranks in the 96th percentile via Savant), but it has held him back from producing more at the plate in his career, especially this season.
His Decision Value+ chart also demonstrates that Vinnie has not shown disciplined processes when deciding what pitches to take and what pitches to swing at this season. His rolling chart this year has also trended much worse since the beginning of July, which makes one wonder if he’s on a hot streak currently due to some batted-ball luck.
Granted, these aren’t deal-breakers by any means for Pasquantino. His contact ability and hard-hit ability have made up for Vinnie’s flaws with launch angle and decision-making at the plate.
Nonetheless, it makes his outlook a bit bleaker for the Royals, especially if they are considering spending big money on an extension for him this offseason.
What Should the Royals Do With Vinnie This Offseason?
The reality is a contract extension for Vinnie is the last thing on Picollo and the Royals’ minds right now. Their focus is on the postseason, especially with them sporting strong odds to make it (though they are down 7-2 to the Angels as I write this post, which won’t help things).
Nonetheless, Vinnie is an interesting dilemma for the Royals.
On one hand, he’s the Royals’ best position player right now, behind Witt and Salvy. However, he’ll be 27 next year, he’s not particularly athletic, and though his defense has been strong this year (77th percentile in OAA via Statcast), he won’t win a Gold Glove anytime soon. So much of his value, both now and long-term, is tied to his bat.
Regarding the bat, it’s hard to say Vinnie merits an extension, especially considering the standard that is expected for a Major League first baseman.
Of qualified MLB first basemen, Pasquantino ranks 13th in wRC+ and fWAR. He ranks better in fWAR than players like Ryan Mountcastle, Luis Arraez, and Paul Goldschmidt. However, he still ranks behind Carlos Santana, Josh Naylor, and Nate Lowe. Thus, it’s hard to justify a big-time extension for a first-baseman who isn’t a Top-10 one right now and may not be one long-term.
Conversely, could the Royals live with a good hitter who may never be an All-Star? Can Kansas City be okay with a first baseman who may top out at 25 home runs in a year but can be an RBI machine in clutch situations (even if those RBI hits are singles or sac flies)?
That kind of skillset is valuable in the long term, even if it may not be as expensive or as sexy as Witt’s Hall-of-Fame-caliber profile.
The Royals need Vinnie to finish the 2024 season strong offensively.
His strong performance at the plate will get them into the postseason, plain and simple.
Lastly, it will give the Royals a clearer idea of what to offer him and for how long this offseason.
Photo Credit: William Purnell USA TODAY Sports
All stats and charts aside, I would argue that Vinnie is the soul of this team. Salvy is undoubtedly the heart and BWJ is the engine, but ya gotta have a soul.
I agree that’s there are intangibles that go beyond the numbers with him. He’s definitely a leader of this group both in the clubhouse and with the fanbase. I gotta imagine that’s going to be a factor as well this offseason.
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