This week, Pitcher List Director of Data Analytics and Research Kyle Bland revealed a new PLV rolling chart called “Process+.” It is the latest form of data that can help baseball fans and hardcore fantasy baseball players better understand the performance and outlook of their favorite players.
PLV data tries to quantify and measure specific player processes on a pitcher’s and hitter’s end. On a hitter’s end, Decision Value, Power, and Contact Ability tend to be the best measures of a hitter’s skills at the plate in a given year. I have frequently used those measurements, as well as Kyle’s rolling charts of those data sets, when evaluating Royals hitters on this blog.
Pitcher List defines their newest metrics as follows:
Process (runs per pitch): The combined value of a hitter’s Decision Value, Contact Ability, and Power.
Senior Fantasy Analyst Scott Bland further described Process+ below, comparing it to wRC+, Fangraphs’ main overall metric for evaluating hitting performance.
Pitcher List founder Nick Pollack also said Process+ is “a wRC+ for skills instead of results.” Thus, Bland’s new tool, available on PL Pro, could help Royals fans understand Royals hitters better and what kind of outlook they may have for the remainder of the season.
With this new metric, let’s look at five Royals-system-developed hitters’ Process+ charts and consider what fans can learn about their skills thus far this season (and how hopeful we should be about their performance as we close out this year).
Bobby Witt, Jr.
It made sense to start with Bobby, the Royals’ best overall player this year. According to Joel Penfield, he has already accumulated a 7.8 fWAR this year, which is the best non-George Brett season in Royals history (and we still have roughly two months to go in the 2024 season).
Bobby’s Process+ has hovered between 120 and 150 this season, with his power and contact primarily carrying him. His decision value has had moments where it’s dipped slightly below average. However, it’s never dropped down too much (it has never dipped below the 90 mark), and his power and contact have more than made up for that regressing area.
For context, let’s look at the Process+ data of Aaron Judge of the Yankees and Gunnar Henderson of the Orioles. Both players will likely compete with Bobby in the AL MVP voting race.
On a power end, Bobby rates quite similarly to Judge and Henderson, though Judge has the greater power peaks (he was near 200 in June).
Conversely, neither Henderson nor Judge can match what Bobby does on a contact end. Witt is challenging Cleveland’s Steven Kwan for the AL Batting Title. To do that and still showcase significant power on his rolling chart is a testament to Witt’s exceptional value as a hitter.
Witt’s been below-average in his decision-making at the plate regarding swings and takes over the past month. However, I do not think it’s going to dip much further. If anything, it should only bump up, especially as he gets more settled in after the All-Star Break.
If that happens, Bobby could make the AL MVP race even more interesting, especially if the Royals stay in the postseason hunt.
MJ Melendez
MJ is a peculiar contrast to Witt in terms of Process+.
Melendez’s strongest feature as a hitter is his power, which has been above-average all season. However, his contact ability has waned, dropping to around the 90 range between May and June. He’s bumped that up a bit, but his decision value, which was excellent until July, has regressed in the process.
Contact has always been a struggle for Melendez at the Major League level. He’s improved his Z-Contact (contact on pitches in the strike zone) from 76% in 2023 to 80% in 2024. That said, that contact rate is still 5.3% below the league average. That explains why he has a career K rate of 26.2% and a K rate of 25.2% this season. His 0.27 BB/K ratio is also a concern, especially with his contact ability.
Nonetheless, there are some things to dream of with Melendez, especially regarding power. In the middle of June, it finally looked like he was getting back into a groove when it came to hitting the ball with authority, which was his calling card in the second half of last season.
Melendez’s hitting mechanics can be fussy, and the long layoff probably explains his dip from having an above-average Process+ pre-injury to a below-average one since returning off the IL. How his decision-making at the plate fares in the coming weeks could determine his role in the lineup not just down the stretch but also in 2025.
Maikel Garcia
Garcia is a polarizing hitter among Royals fans; some of it isn’t his fault.
Is he a leadoff hitter? Probably not. That said, the Royals weren’t left with many leadoff options after Tommy Pham, Lane Thomas, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. left for other clubs at the Trade Deadline.
Why is Maikel still getting opportunities at the leadoff spot, like today against Detroit ace Tarik Skubal?
Garcia’s contact ability could be a likely contributing factor to manager Matt Quatraro’s decision-making regarding the leadoff spot in the lineup.
The Royals are the second-best team in baseball in K rate, as they only strike out 18.1% of the time this season. Garcia is only striking out 15.2% of the time this year, a 7.1% improvement from a year ago. Furthermore, his Process+ has hovered between 100 and 130 this year, showing his adeptness at putting the bat on the ball.
Garcia’s decision value has regressed a bit, but it’s still hovered around average or only dipped slightly below, even during his rough slump in June. The only drawback with Garcia has been his power, which has monumentally fallen after a promising start.
Garcia’s key going forward is hitting the ball productively. There are no questions about whether Garcia can make contact. However, can he make more productive contact in the future? He does have six home runs this season, more than his four a year ago.
If the power doesn’t mature, he may be a faster and better base-stealing Nicky Lopez.
I don’t think that’s the outlook, as the hard-hit metrics show Garcia’s potential as a hitter (his 41.4% hard-hit rate is much higher than Lopez’s 16.1% hard-hit rate). That said, the power PLV data isn’t encouraging, and it will be worth watching to see if he can see that bounce back a bit in August and September.
Vinnie Pasquantino
Vinnie hit two bombs in game one of this weekend’s series against the Detroit Tigers, so Royals fans will likely see a boost in those green bars when Pasquantino’s Process+ updates (the data is only through July 31st).
However, an intriguing trend for Vinnie this year isn’t necessarily his power, which has always been a question mark throughout his career in the big leagues.
His barrel rate was only 7.4% last year and has only improved to 7.5% this season. Vinnie hits the ball relatively hard for a first baseman (45% hard-hit rate this year), but his inability consistently launch the ball seems to hold him back. His LA Sweet-Spot percentage is 34.6%, 3.2% down from a year ago. That correlates with his power PLV data not trending positively.
On a positive note, Vinnie is making contact at an excellent rate, based on the PLV data. He’s putting up contact numbers with Witt and Maikel, which is promising. That said, his decision value metrics have been a bit disappointing. Vinnie’s calling card as a prospect was his plate discipline. And yet, his decision value has had multiple occasions where it’s hovered below average. That explains why he’s seen a decline in BB/K ratio from 1.03 in his rookie year to 0.81 in 2023 to 0.61 this year.
The Old Dominion product shows he can make contact at above-average to borderline-elite levels in the Major Leagues. Royals fans want to see that from a No. 3 hitter in the lineup.
Conversely, the decision-making at the plate needs to improve, especially if he wants to improve his overall stat line and solidify himself in the No. 3 spot long-term for the Royals.
Michael Massey
Massey’s data is limited, as he has only accumulated 196 plate appearances this year due to a nagging back injury. That said, his Process+ chart caught me a bit by surprise.
Massey’s most vital skill in his Process+ has been his contact ability, which has hovered between 100 and 120 for the season. That is encouraging, especially since contact was not his strength in his first two years. His K rate was 23.7% in 2022 and 21.5% in 2023. Furthermore, his contact rate was 73.2% in 2022 and 79.6% in 2023.
This season, his K rate is down to 14.3%, and his contact rate is up to 85.2%. Those are adjustments in the process that Massey should be commended for.
Conversely, his decision value and power have NOT been good. His decision value has dipped to around 85 this year, and his power has dropped to around 75. Granted, no one expects Massey to be a masher, but he has nine home runs and a .208 ISO, so it’s peculiar to see his power PLV rate so poorly.
Massey has always been a free-swinger, so the decision-value metrics may always be what they are. His walk rate is only 3.1% this year, which is a big reason why Royals fans haven’t been as high on Massey in the leadoff spot. However, if Massey can continue to make contact at a high level, I think the Royals can live with that aggressive approach.
Massey does appear more comfortable as a run producer in the lineup than one who can score runs. That’s why we have seen Garcia return to the leadoff spot even though Massey had only a brief stint there (though who knows if Q returns him to the spot when they face a righty again). If his spot in the lineup is to continue, Massey will need to show some gains in his power PLV trends.
If he doesn’t, his surface-level power numbers could plummet in the next couple of months, jeopardizing his spot in the batting order.
Photo Credit: AP | Ed Zurga
Interesting article. I’ve been pretty steady on Maikel being a 2b as thats where his bat plays best. Massey, by this analysis is a better fit at third base, where his aggressive approach may be more tolerated if it converts into more of a power hitter. Would swapping these two actually improve them? I’m not sure,but Maikel would be less inclined to try and hit like a corner infielder, and Massey might welcome the option to be less of a contact hitter in exchange for a big contact hitter. Pasquantino needs to figure out if he wants to be a high batting average 1b (Garvey/Carew) or a power 1b (Frank Howard) hitter. If I was his coach, I’d tell him to be himself. He has the potential to be a .300/30 HR hitter by just going out there with the plan to make solid contact and look for pitching mistakes. MJ is hard to,figure out. He is like Waters. Natural power. All he needs to do is look for solid contact and good things will happen.
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