Royals Upgrade at Trade Deadline But Don’t Make That “Major” Splash

After acquiring Michael Lorenzen on Monday, the Royals were active on the Trade Deadline day, pulling off two trades before the 5 p.m. deadline.

The first was a trade for Oakland reliever Lucas Erceg, who’s been the Athletics’ primary setup man. Lately, he’s been the emergency closer with Mason Miller on the IL. The Royals gave up three prospects in the deal: pitchers Mason Barnett and Will Klein and outfielder Jared Dickey. Klein was currently on the Royals’ active roster before the trade.

Not too long after the announcement of the Erceg deal, the Royals acquired infielder Paul DeJong from the White Sox in a deal for low-A pitching prospect Jarold Rosado.

There was some hope that the Royals would acquire an outfielder or someone who could fill in at the top of the batting order. However, no deal materialized for the Royals before the 5 PM CT deadline. Utility man Luis Regnifo and outfielder Taylor Ward of the Angels, two hitters tied to the Royals (among other teams) in trade rumors leading up to the Deadline, stayed in Los Angeles after the Deadline passed.

The Royals upgraded their roster on Tuesday and in the weeks before the Trade Deadline (they also acquired Hunter Harvey). Manager Matt Quatraro seemed to echo that message before the Royals’ game against the White Sox on Tuesday.

Nonetheless, the Deadline was underwhelming, especially for a Royals fanbase hoping the club could make a big splash to improve their playoff chances.

Let’s look at the two players acquired by Kansas City and why Royals general manager JJ Picollo took the approach he did at the Trade Deadline.

Erceg Brings Long-Term Potential to the Bullpen

Erceg has been a solid piece of the Athletics bullpen over the past two years. Oakland acquired him from the Brewers organization before the 2023 season, and he’s proven to be a bargain for the Athletics over the past two seasons.

In 88 career games and 91.2 IP, the 29-year-old righty has a 4.32 ERA, 3.37 FIP, and a 1.2 fWAR. He has had a solid sophomore season with the A’s, evidenced by his 3.68 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and 0.3 fWAR.

The most significant improvement for Erceg this year has been his control.

Despite averaging 98 MPH on his four-seamer and sinker last season and a K rate of 27.1%, he only had a K/BB ratio of 1.89 in 2023. This season, he has improved his K/BB ratio to 3.15 while still maintaining a K rate of 26.3%. He also has seen a bump in his fastball velocity, as his four-seamer is up to 98.5 MPH, and his sinker comes in at 98.4 MPH.

Erceg has seen some spikes up in his xwOBA this season. However, unlike last season, he’s been able to minimize those stretches thus far.

In terms of his arsenal, Erceg sports a four-pitch mix: four-seamer, sinker, slider, and changeup. His sinker, slider, and changeup all rate as above-average offerings on a PLV end.

Regarding PLV, Erceg’s most impressive pitches have been the sinker and changeup. His sinker has been a better put-away pitch, with a 29.2% put-away rate this season. His changeup has been a better swing-and-miss pitch, sporting a 33.3% whiff rate. The changeup is his best offering on a whiff-rate end in 2024.

Royals fans can see why below, especially with its combination of velocity (it averages 91 MPH) and movement.

The most significant benefit of acquiring Erceg is the Royals’ long-term control over him. He will not be a free agent until 2025.

Now, relievers tend to have volatile and short careers. That said, Erceg was initially drafted as a position player out of Menlo College, so his arm has less mileage than other 29-year-old pitchers.

That long-term control was a big reason why Picollo targeted Erceg, as they think he can settle into the Royals’ closer role for an extended period beyond 2024.

Royals fans hoped that Picollo would acquire a closer like Tanner Scott, who eventually went to the Padres before the Trade Deadline. However, the Padres gave up an exorbitant prospect package for Scott.

Royals fans would likely have been upset if Picollo gave up something similar on the Royals’ end for just two months of the services from the Marlins reliever.

In this Erceg deal, the Royals only lost one high-end prospect: Barnett. However, the 2022 third-round pick was having a disappointing season in Northwest Arkansas, as evidenced by his 4.91 ERA in 91.2 IP.

Royals Bolster Bench With DeJong

The Royals’ pickup of DeJong was surprising, especially since they seemed pretty set in the infield. However, the 30-year-old veteran brings a power profile to the Royals’ bench.

In 363 plate appearances with the White Sox, DeJong has 18 home runs and an OPS of .705. He also ranks in the 62nd percentile in hard-hit rate and 65th percentile in barrel rate. This makes up for his .228 batting average and .275 OBP.

Regarding his Power+ rolling chart data, DeJong has consistently been above league average this year, though he has seen some regression recently.

Conversely, contact and whiffs are significant issues for DeJong. This year, his whiff rate is 33.6%, and his career whiff rate is 29.3%. That shows that swings and misses have been a problem for DeJong throughout his career.

His contact ability has also been subpar. His zone contact% is 74%, eight percent below the MLB average. Furthermore, his Contact Ability+ rolling chart has hovered around the bottom 10th percentile of the league nearly all season.

The good thing is that DeJong likely will not be an everyday player for the Royals.

He was primarily acquired to help provide a boost off the bench and fill in at third base against left-handed starting pitchers. He will likely see time at third and second in a rotation with Adam Frazier, Maikel Garcia, and Michael Massey (I’m guessing the DeJong move means Hampson will be more in the outfield, which better suits him anyway). DeJong has postseason experience with the St. Louis Cardinals, and from his initial interview as a Royal, it seems like he’s excited to play for a contender again.

DeJong should provide more pop off the bench than what the Royals were used to with Nick Loftin, who was demoted to Omaha shortly after the acquisition.

Did the Royals Do Enough?

In some ways, the Trade Deadline was a bit of a disappointment for the Royals.

Many Royals fans expected players who could immediately be the closer or leadoff man. Unfortunately, it’s unlikely that Erceg or DeJong will fill those roles (or at least not right away).

That said, while the “returns” may have been a little less than expected, the more significant win for the Royals was that Kansas City didn’t give up serious prospect capital, especially in a season that proved to be a “sellers’ market” (or at least for the Miami Marlins).

During this “trade season,” the Royals acquired four players overall (Harvey, Lorenzen, Erceg, and DeJong). According to “Farm to Fountains” founder Preston Farr, the Royals only had to give up one of their top-10 prospects (according to their rankings) in that process.

Thus, while the return may have been a little disappointing, I can’t help but feel satisfied as a Royals fan with how the Trade Deadline played out.

The Royals didn’t mortgage their future, especially for players who would only be around for two months. The significant players the Royals did acquire have long-term value (Harvey and Erceg). They also acquired some depth pieces who will be free agents after this season but won’t block any significant Royals player who has a future with the club in 2025.

Maybe Picollo didn’t go “all-in” at this Trade Deadline.

However, he has set up the Royals to continue to be contenders in 2025.

He is also keeping the farm system strong, so the Royals may have a better opportunity to be more aggressive buyers next Trade Deadline, especially with more prospect depth.

That is significant progress from the Dayton Moore days, plain and simple.

Photo Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

7 thoughts on “Royals Upgrade at Trade Deadline But Don’t Make That “Major” Splash”

  1. The Dodgers used to say that the only thing you could not teach a pitcher was velocity. At 98.5 mph, Erceg has a fastball that creates tremendous potential for his secondary offerings. He can back off the gas a bit and hone his control. He can be the difference between 4 runs allowed per game and 3.5… And that could really impact the way we play down the stretch. Also, the available outfielders were a mixed bag and not really worth keeping. That translates into, not worth trading our future. For the Royals to win, they don’t need to be lights out good. They need to be opportunistic and allow 4 runs or less per game. You can plug an infielder in the outfield more easily than the opposite.DeJong hits well enough to occasionally start in LF.

    We ate now a solid pitching first team.

    1. I agree. Erceg has the kind of high-velocity arm that will help our bullpen for some time. Furthermore, he has solid command, which was something we were missing from our high-velocity arms currently in our system (Hernandez, Cruz, and formerly Klein). I like the idea of him leading this pen and Harvey, Zerpa, McArthur, and Schreiber following him. That’s a solid 1-5 in the pen for the remainder of the year and 2025. And if you can get Marsh and/or Bowlan to turn into a solid reliever as well? This Royals bullpen could see a major turnaround without having to spend a whole lot of cash.

      Looking back, I am in agreement about the OF situation. Jazz was a fun idea, but obviously Marlins didn’t view our system as highly as the Yankees (didn’t think the Yankees’ package was that great honestly but Yankees prospects always carry that hype). Pham was part of that Fedde mega deal so who knows if Pham was on the table anyways. DeJong didn’t cost much, brings something the bench needs (power), and can be easily parted with by end of year.

      Overall, a pretty good deadline in my opinion that should set us up well for 2025 and beyond. Also could see a leadoff hitter and closer emerge by the end of year, which has more long-term value than bringing guys to have those roles just for a couple of months.

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