The Royals begin a big weekend series with the Chicago Cubs on Friday to close out their homestand. After sweeping the White Sox, the Royals lost two of three to the Diamondbacks, so winning at least two games against the North Siders is crucial for Kansas City to stay ahead in the AL Wild Card race.
The Royals could’ve taken two of three against the Diamondbacks, but closer James McArthur could not close it out in the ninth, blowing his fifth save of the season.
He gave up five runs on four hits and a walk, causing the Royals to lose 8-6. For context, his 17.14 FIP in the outing was his second-worst FIP mark in an appearance this season (his only worse outing was a 19.14 FIP game against the Milwaukee Brewers on May 7th; I was at that game).
As expected, fans dumped heavily on the Royals closer and reiterated the club’s need to acquire more bullpen help by the Trade Deadline.
(He could spell McArthur’s name right, but I do not get spell-checking when you’re rage Tweeting; I do the same thing.)
JJ Picollo has already tried to improve the bullpen with his recent trade for Hunter Harvey. That said, this bullpen ranks 21st in ERA and 28th in WHIP, so I understand Royals fans thinking there is a need to acquire more relief help, especially for a team trying to hold off the Red Sox in the Wild Card and to climb up the division on the Guardians and Twins.
The only issue is that the Royals have other needs: They need hitting help and someone to replace Adam Frazier at the leadoff spot, and they may need some more starting pitch depth, especially if Alec Marsh continues to regress.
The Royals don’t have much trade capital to work with for a team trying to rebuild its farm system under Picollo. The price for any help, especially relief help, will likely be higher than what the Royals gave up for Harvey.
After all, look at what the Diamondbacks gave up for reliever AJ Puk, who’s not even a closer anymore for the Royals.
De Los Santos and Pintar were both Top-30 prospects in a Diamondbacks system that ranked 16th in baseball according to MLB Pipeline in March. Considering the Royals system ranked 28th according to that same ranking system, it’s likely that the price for Puk would’ve been a bit more expensive or impactful on the Royals’ farm system.
The Royals need to discern what’s more critical when boosting this team at the Trade Deadline: the leadoff spot or the bullpen.
I think it would be better for the Royals to focus on allocating their resources to get a hitter rather than overspending to get closer, like Tanner Scott from the Marlins or Carlos Estevez from the Angels.
A leadoff bat will be the glue that can help add some consistency to this lineup, especially on the road, where they’ve struggled (they have the third-worst road wRC+ in baseball). A closer would help, but I am unsure if the Royals’ relief issues will go away, especially with the inconsistency we have seen from nearly every reliever on this current roster.
The Royals certainly need to find bullpen help at the Deadline. However, it may be better for them to find buy-low candidates with specific skills and reevaluate how they can improve their bullpen in the offseason for 2025 and beyond.
The 2024 Bullpen “Makeover” Hasn’t Worked
In 2023, the Royals bullpen was one of the worst in baseball. According to Fangraphs, they ranked 28th in reliever fWAR, 29th in ERA, and 25th in K-BB%.
The bullpen’s lack of control and command was a significant issue, primarily after Scott Barlow was traded away to the San Diego Padres at the Trade Deadline. From August 1st to the end of the season, their K-BB% was 10.4%, lower than their season average of 11.9%. They also had a FIP of 5.31, which ranked 28th in baseball.
The Royals had a couple of promising arms that finished the season strong. McArthur was one of those relievers who appeared to be a dependable option for 2024. That said, the depth after McArthur looked shaky at best.
Thus, Picollo went to the trade and free agent market to upgrade the bullpen. He acquired Nick Anderson in a trade with the Braves and John Schreiber in a trade with the Red Sox. He also picked up Will Smith and Chris Stratton via free agency. In those four moves, the Royals appeared to have a veteran-laced bullpen that could provide excellent support around McArthur and other younger arms with upside, such as Angel Zerpa, Carlos Hernandez, and Will Klein.
Unfortunately, the plan has not worked. The Royals bullpen struggles with control and command, even with the influx of experienced relievers. The bullpen has a K-BB% of 9.3%, which is a 2.6% decline from a season ago.
The league average K-BB% is 14.1%. Of Royals relievers with at least five innings pitched, only three have a mark above the league average.
Bubic leads the Royals bullpen in K-BB%, but he’s only pitched in six innings this season. Klein also has a small sample at 5.2 IP. Thus, the only relievers who have genuinely been above-average in this category over an extended period have been Zerpa and Sam Long (McArthur is barely below the league average by 0.2%).
The Royals “veterans” who were supposed to help stabilize this bullpen have been the primary disappointments. Only Schreiber has a K-BB% over 10%, and Smith and Stratton, the two free agents, have marks under six percent. That’s worse than Nick Anderson, who was recently designated for assignment (to make room for Harvey) and is now pitching in the Dodgers organization.
The low K-BB percentages are not the only alarming red flags for this bullpen. This group has struggled immensely with giving up hard and productive contact.
According to Statcast metrics, their 40.5% hard-hit rate allowed is the sixth-worst in baseball. Their 7.7% barrel rate ranks a little better at 20th, but it’s still not good when combined with the bullpen’s walk issues.
On a positive end, at least Smith and Stratton have suppressed the hard hits from opposing batters, even though they have struggled to throw strikes consistently (though they have fared worse on the barrels-allowed end).
Unfortunately, hard hits allowed have been a primary struggle for McArthur this season, as Royals fans can see in the data set below:
Free passes on the basepaths combined with a worse-than-average hard-hit allowed mark is a recipe for disaster, as Royals fans were reminded on Wednesday night.
Picollo and the Royals front office had the right idea in mind when they went after their four veteran arms this offseason. They backed it up with being willing to pay for it in the offseason, as they shelled out roughly $11.2 million this year alone for Smith, Stratton, Schreiber, and Anderson.
Unfortunately, according to Fangraphs, that group has combined to produce a 0.3 fWAR this season, which equates to roughly $2.1 million in value. The Royals have essentially overpaid by $9.1 million for those four relievers.
For a small-market franchise that wants to be “efficient” with their money, like the Guardians and Rays, the Royals have to do a better job of producing more value out of the bullpen.
One high-profile reliever acquired at the Deadline doesn’t solve that problem.
What Do the Royals Need to Do?
The Royals should put their resources and time into acquiring a bat by the Deadline. Whether it’s Jazz Chisholm, Jr., Tommy Pham, Lane Thomas, or Taylor Ward, a bat will significantly impact the Royals’ postseason season chances.
Manager Matt Quatraro would be better off shuffling roles now than expecting “closer help” immediately from outside the organization. Moving Harvey to the closer’s role seems like an easy fix. They should also explore utilizing Bubic, Long, and perhaps Zerpa in closing situations when the time arises.
If they are going after relievers by the Deadline, they need to find ones with big “stuff” and see if they can mold them with their pitching development. They need guys who can be “projects” for the remainder of the year, hoping they can take the next step in 2025 (and still have years of control).
The Royals seemed to have this mindset in the MLB Draft on Days 2 and 3.
Scouting Director Briand Bridges and the Royals draft team primarily selected college arms with big stuff and strong command, even if the ERA results weren’t impressive. They also selected pitchers who could quickly move up the Royals’ farm system in two to three years. This past draft demonstrated that they have a pitching type they think the development team can find success with.
It would be nice to see the Royals look to go after arms by the deadline that are being disregarded or undervalued by other organizations and won’t cost much. The Rays and Mariners have found success with this model, and it doesn’t cause too much strain on their payroll either (which opens up other roster-adding opportunities).
A prime example is the breakout of Seattle’s Collin Snider, who was released by the Royals this past offseason. After two subpar campaigns in Kansas City, he has seen a significant turnaround with the Mariners this season.
Snider has always had the stuff to be successful. However, the Mariners’ pitching development, coaching, and opportunity helped him finally tap into that potential after failing for so long with the Royals.
The Royals hope they can do something similar with Dinelson Lamet, a recent Minor League free-agent signing who showed potential in the past but hasn’t quite put it together consistently. It’s the kind of “dart throw” the Royals front office should do more with relievers.
Furthermore, the Royals also need to trust the pitchers they have drafted/signed and developed in this organization more, especially with the bullpen needing all the help it can get.
Snider is not the only reliever who has succeeded in another organization after leaving Kansas City. Jason Adam, Matt Strahm, and Gabe Speier were other names who were initially Royals picks and found greener pastures outside the Royals organization.
It would be nice if the Royals could see some success in the bullpen from their own drafted and developed relievers, much like the Guardians.
That said, the Royals must also be okay with transitioning pitchers from starting to relief roles sooner rather than later.
Kris Bubic has seen tremendous early success in his move to the bullpen. Jonathan Bowlan and Anthony Veneziano should also begin making that move, especially since their upside as starting pitchers seemed pretty capped at this point in their careers. Both have shown flashes of being effective arms in the bullpen in their brief tenures in Kansas City.
However, they won’t be able to build upon that if they continue eating starting innings in Omaha. The Royals need to see what they can get out of Bowlan and Veneziano before it’s too late and they DFA them because of a roster crunch. Then, it becomes a Snider situation all over again.
I get that the Royals bullpen situation has been particularly frustrating this year for Royals fans, especially with the club 56-47 and in the hunt for their first postseason berth since 2015, when they won the World Series. The Royals may be tempted to do “whatever it takes” to upgrade the bullpen by July 30th to take advantage of this playoff window.
On the other hand, there are many ways to improve a bullpen, and the Royals need to do a better job of honing their processes to strengthen their bullpen long-term. There are no “quick fixes” in baseball, especially when it comes to relief pitching.
From 2013 to 2015, the Royals bullpen led baseball with a 17.4 fWAR mark. As great as their 2014 and 2015 bullpens were, their 2013 group was better than both and set things in motion for the success they experienced during those two Pennant-winning seasons.
The Royals found this success by moving guys like Wade Davis from the rotation to the bullpen and relying on internally developed pitchers like Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera, Luke Hochevar, and Tim Collins, to name a few. Their bullpen success didn’t require them to pay egregiously for outside help.
The bullpen continued to be okay from 2016 to 2018, ranking 15th in baseball with a 13.6 fWAR. From 2019 to 2022, though, the end of the Dayton Moore era, they ranked 25th with an 8.8 fWAR.
Hence, there’s been a trending decline in relief pitcher depth and development since that tremendous three-year period from 2013 to 2015. It’s been tough for Picollo to turn it around immediately, as the Royals bullpen ranks 29th in fWAR with a 1.5 mark since 2023.
However, Picollo will not see that positive turnaround as a group by acquiring Scott, Estevez, Mason Miller, or Michael Kopech by the Trade Deadline.
The Royals pitching development team must improve, especially with bullpen arms in the upper Minor Leagues (i.e., Omaha and Northwest Arkansas).
And that might not happen until this offseason, much to the chagrin of frustrated Royals fans.
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/Getty Images
So…we have pitchers who struggle with the pitching philosophy. Fine. Change the approach. Let’s ” pitch to contact” and let the infield do the work.
I get that in theory, but the pitch to contact approach can have its ups and downs, especially when the contact is “hard” contact.
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter thinks the bullpen needs more than just a new closer. […]
[…] In the Petriello tweet above, I mentioned how this Royals bullpen suddenly looks like a dominant group after being bashed by Royals fans for most of the season. […]