The Royals have been on fire since coming out of the All-Star Break. They are 4-0 as of Tuesday, which boosts their record to 56-45 for the year.
They took three from the White Sox over the weekend in convincing fashion. They also won 10-4 on Monday against the Diamondbacks in an emotional contest where Bobby Witt, Jr. got hit by a pitch (with a chance to hit for the cycle on the line), Arizona manager Torey Lovullo got tossed, and Salvy got in an animated argument with what appeared to be Arizona bench coach Jeff Bannister.
The Royals have two more games against the Diamondbacks before they finish the homestand against the Cubs in a three-game slate over the weekend. Then they hit the road within the division for three games against the White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field and four games in Detroit against the Tigers.
Entering Tuesday’s game, the Royals have made up considerable ground in the Wild Card and Central division race. Thanks to three straight losses by the Guardians, Kansas City is only four games out in the Central. They are currently two games up on the Red Sox for the final spot, as the Red Sox have lost every game out of the All-Star Break.
Fans are riding high, especially after the Royals tied their win total from 2023 on Monday in significantly fewer games.
While the Royals’ start to the second half has been great, questions remain about the roster. JJ Picollo jumpstarted the “trade season” early by acquiring reliever Hunter Harvey from Washington before the All-Star Break. However, there are still plenty of areas on this Royals roster, both on the position player and pitching end, that still need improvement.
Thus, Picollo and the Royals front office must answer three crucial player questions, especially with the Trade Deadline looming in one week (July 30th). The answers to these questions could determine what roster actions Picollo will take in the coming days.
Is Adam Frazier the Solution at Leadoff?
Toward the end of the first half, Royals fans finally saw manager Matt Quatraro move Maikel Garcia down from the leadoff spot of the batting order. It made sense, especially considering Garcia’s 72 wRC+ before the All-Star Break.
A popular thought among Royals fans was for Quatraro to move up Bobby Witt, Jr. to the leadoff spot of the batting order, especially since he’s the Royals’ best hitter. However, Witt struggled as the Royals’ leadoff hitter in 2023, and there doesn’t seem to be a need to mess with Bobby, especially with him putting up insane numbers right now.
Would Bobby be the Royals’ best fit at leadoff with the roster as it currently is? Absolutely. However, I understand Quatraro’s “if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality with Witt and his spot in the batting order.
Instead, the Royals have recently opted for utility man Adam Frazier to hit at the top of the batting order.
The decision makes sense at the surface level. Frazier has a career .268 batting average as a leadoff hitter, and his career BB/K ratio is 0.57, and wRC+ is 95 at leadoff. That is a better track record at leadoff than Garcia, who has a career 75 wRC+ in 648 career plate appearances.
On the other hand, Frazier has not fared much better than Garcia at leadoff for the Royals this year.
It’s a small 44-plate appearance sample. However, in those plate appearances, he has a .249 wOBA, 54 wRC+, 20.5% K%, and 0.22 BB/K ratio. All those marks have been worse than Garcia’s at leadoff, and Frazier’s overall wOBA of .261 and wRC+ of 63 don’t bode well for better days ahead.
Furthermore, Frazier’s Decision Value+ rolling chart has taken a massive tumble since the beginning of the season. It especially looks poor compared to Garcia, who has been batting toward the bottom of the lineup since the All-Star Break.
That Decision Value decline does not indicate that Frazier has the plate discipline and patience to succeed as the Royals’ leadoff hitter for the remainder of the season.
Frazier brings a veteran presence and some positional versatility off the bench. However, he’s not been making significant swing decisions at the plate this year and continues to be a liability when making hard contact (his hard-hit rate of 22.5% is 0.9% down from a year ago via Savant).
That said, it’s ultimately Quatraro and Picollo’s call regarding leadoff, and the Royals have been winning despite Frazier’s struggles at that spot in the batting order.
If the Royals don’t feel like Frazier is the solution at leadoff, it would make sense for them to go after Chicago’s Tommy Pham or Miami’s Jazz Chisholm. They have a much better history at leadoff than Garcia and have been stronger performers at leadoff this year than Frazier.
Can Drew Waters (or Nelson Velazquez) Be Options Off the Bench?
With MJ Melendez on the IL due to an ankle injury, the Royals have opted to bring up Drew Waters from Omaha. Waters has struggled to get a look in Kansas City this year, but he finished the first half strong in Omaha by being named International League Player of the Week right before the All-Star Break.
After going 0-for-3 against the White Sox on July 20th, he looked much better on July 22nd against the Diamondbacks. He went 1-for-3 with a single and a walk. He also scored a run, thanks to aggressive baserunning on a Maikel Garcia single.
Waters is hitting .143 with a .343 OPS in 15 plate appearances this year. He also has struck out 33.3% of the time in his limited MLB sample. Thus, it makes sense that Waters’ time in Kansas City may end sooner rather than later.
That said, he does give the Royals outfield versatility and upside off the bench.
He could be the kind of player who could occasionally provide MJ, Isbel, or Renfroe a night off or push MJ and Renfroe to DH, which wouldn’t necessarily be a bad thing to keep them fresh (the Royals’ DH spot has been lacking when it hasn’t been Salvy or Vinnie). Waters may never be an everyday MLB outfielder (especially with his struggles from the right side of the plate). However, I think he brings more value to this Royals roster now than Nick Loftin or perhaps even Frazier, and he could build some trade value for next offseason if he does well in the spot.
If Waters isn’t considered a solution off the bench, then the Royals could also bring back Nelson Velazquez, who’s been looking strong lately in Triple-A Omaha.
Velazquez struggled to capitalize off a second-half breakout in Kansas City last season.
After hitting 17 home runs and posting a .888 OPS in 179 plate appearances between the Cubs and Royals in 2023, he had only hit eight home runs and posted a .640 OPS in 230 plate appearances with the Royals. He struggled to launch the ball this season, as seen in his LA Sweet-Spot% rolling chart over his three-year career in the Major Leagues.
Velazquez isn’t hitting as many home runs in Omaha. He only has two in 68 plate appearances. However, his ISO is .200 with the Storm Chasers, his BB/K ratio is 0.79 (compared to 0.31 in the Majors this year), and he has a 118 wRC+ (compared to a 76 wRC+ with the Royals). So, he’s shown improvement in his approach in Omaha, even if the results haven’t been fully realized.
Much like Waters, Velazquez may be a bench bat at this point, with the ability to give Renfroe and MJ a break from the field on occasion (though Velazquez’s defense is much worse than Waters’). He could also boost the Royals’ power from the right side of the plate off the bench. They are missing that kind of power potential off the bench, especially against left-handed pitchers in different situations.
The upside with Velazquez going against lefties instead of Loftin is much more significant, and the Royals need to do all they can to maximize their productivity off the bench.
Will Alec Marsh Stick in the Rotation?
Alec Marsh has been a revelation and success story for this Royals coaching staff.
Last year, he flip-flopped between the rotation and bullpen, posting a 5.69 ERA in 17 appearances, eight starts, and 74.1 IP. Marsh appeared to be an excellent bulk reliever, but the jury was still out if he could be a productive starting pitcher at the Major League level, even as a No. 5 man.
Marsh had an excellent start to the year. According to Fangraphs splits data, he posted a 2.70 ERA in March/April and a 3.86 ERA in May. Unfortunately, things have regressed a bit since June.
In June, his ERA skyrocketed to 5.68 in 31.2 IP. So far in July, his ERA is 7.20 in 10 IP, though he is going tonight with a chance to help bring that number down.
Marsh has been a much better pitcher at the K than on the road this season, complicating his situation even more. At Kauffman, he has a 3.97 ERA in 47.2 IP. On the road, he has a 5.11 ERA in 44 IP.
A big reason for this ERA difference is that Marsh gives up way more long balls on the road. Away from Kauffman, his HR/9 is 1.64. At Kauffman, the HR/9 is only 0.94. That explains why his 4.33 FIP on the road isn’t much worse than his 4.09 FIP at home.
Marsh has produced better pitch quality this year, as evidenced by the PLV arsenal distribution data. His overall PLV is 26 points higher than a year ago, and he’s seen considerable improvement in his four-seamer and slider, his two primary pitches.
On the other hand, is Marsh’s arsenal enough to keep him in the rotation? Or would Marsh fare better in a relief role where he could unleash his stuff more and simplify his arsenal? Could he eliminate his changeup, which still seems to be a subpar pitch on a PLV end?
Only the Royals pitching coaches (e.g., Brian Sweeney, Zach Bove, and Mitch Stetter) would know those questions. Furthermore, the Royals would only replace Marsh with someone acquired via a trade. Daniel Lynch IV and Jonathan Bowlan haven’t shown that they will provide better stuff or pitch quality than Marsh in terms of PLV.
Good starting pitching can be obtained via the Trade Market, but it comes at a high cost in terms of money and prospect capital.
Would the Royals give up the resources necessary to acquire Erick Fedde from the White Sox to help solidify their rotation for a postseason run? (They were tied to him in the offseason but lost out to the White Sox.)
Much of that depends on whether the Royals believe Marsh can stay in the rotation in the short and long term.
Photo Credit: STEPHEN BRASHEAR USA TODAY Sports