The Royals were scheduled to begin the two-game “I-70 Series” against the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium this evening. Unfortunately, Tuesday’s game was postponed due to the weather, and the series against the Cardinals will be a one-day doubleheader instead.
The “I-70 Series” on Wednesday will be between two competitive teams with playoff aspirations.
The Royals are 49-43 and currently sit third behind the Minnesota Twins and Cleveland Guardians in a challenging AL Central division. Some experts saw the Royals as a trendy sleeper pick, but even the most ardent fans figured the Royals were still a season away from being competitive in the division. Unfortunately, Kansas City has struggled to make ground in the division because the Guardians are dominant this year (though Cleveland is only 2-4 head-to-head against the Royals).
The Cardinals are currently 48-42, but one can’t help but feel they have been a bit of a disappointment this season.
St. Louis entered the 2024 season as the betting favorite to win the NL Central. Unfortunately, they struggled out of the gate, going 14-16 in March/April. They have slowly risen in the standings over the past couple of months, sitting 4.5 games behind the division-leading Milwaukee Brewers. They went 13-12 in May, 16-12 in June, and are 5-2 in July, entering the Royals series.
On a hitting end, the Cardinals have been led by Willson Contreras, formerly of the rival Cubs. He is posting a ridiculous 163 wRC+ and leading all St. Louis hitters with a 2.3 fWAR. Rookie Masyn Winn has also been a dynamic force on hitting and defensive end, much like Kansas City’s Bobby Witt, Jr. While Winn didn’t make the All-Star game, he could be due to make it in his second or third season if he continues his development.
On the flip side, two big-name players, Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, have been underwhelming and are beginning to show their age (33 and 36, respectively). Arenado only has a 100 wRC+, and Goldschmidt has a 91 wRC+ entering Wednesday’s doubleheader.
The strength of the Cardinals’ pitching is the polar opposite of the Royals. Their starting pitching has been mediocre this year, as they rank 20th in ERA and 18th in WHIP (compared to the Royals, who rank 4th in ERA and 8th in WHIP). New acquisition Sonny Gray has been solid with a 3.30 ERA, and Kyle Gibson has been okay with a 3.96 ERA, but the rest of the rotation has been mediocre.
That said, the Cardinals’ bullpen has been one of the better units in baseball and is a big reason why the Cardinals are six games over. 500 so far this year. Closer Ryan Helsely was named the Cardinals’ lone All-Star representative, but he has certainly earned the spot. He has collected 31 saves and has a 2.41 ERA in 41 IP for St. Louis.
Therefore, what should Royals fans expect for tomorrow’s doubleheader, and could the Royals build some much-needed momentum to close out the first half of the season this week?
What Makes This “I-70 Series” Different?
This matchup feels different from the previous Royals-Cardinals series simply because they are competitive as a club, something they haven’t been since the 2017 season.
The Royals are one game better than the Cardinals entering Wednesday’s doubleheader, which is something they haven’t been able to say over their eastern Missouri rival in some time. Even when the Royals won AL Pennants in 2014 and 2015 and a World Series title in 2015, Kansas City still had a worse record in 2014 (89-73) and 2015 (95-67) than the Cardinals (90-72 in 2014; 100-62 in 2015).
It was also typical for the Royals, even during their competitive era from 2013 to 2017, to always seem snakebit against the Cardinals, notably when they played at Busch Stadium.
Because of Kansas City’s dismal history, this rivalry has always felt like a one-sided affair. Even though the Royals hold the advantage in head-to-head World Series victories (1985), the Cardinals have long been a model MLB franchise, while the Royals have been a poster child of the “struggling small market team” since the MLB strike in 1994.
Since Ewing Kauffman’s death, the Royals-Cardinals rivalry has felt more akin to the Red Sox-Yankees pre-2004. The Royals hate the Cardinals and St. Louis fans with passion. On the flip side, the Royals are an after-thought, especially compared to the Cardinals’ “actual” rival, the Chicago Cubs (who haven’t been very competitive either against the Cardinals recently, despite their World Series title in 2016).
This year, the Royals, despite being 14-19 so far in June and July, seem to have a fighting chance to not only be competitive against the Cardinals at Busch Stadium over the next two games but perhaps sweep the two-game set as well
On a run-differential end, Kansas City is head and shoulders above St. Louis. The Royals have a run differential of +56, better than the second-place Twins (+53). Conversely, the Cardinals have a run differential of -33, the worst mark in that category in the NL Central.
Regarding the expected W-L record, the Royal should have a record of 52-40 based on run differential, while the Cardinals should be 41-49. Thus, the Royals have been a significantly better team than the Cardinals this year, and the one-game difference between the two clubs is not an adequate picture.
When’s the last time Royals fans could say that? Not since 1995, when the Royals went 70-74 and the Cardinals went 62-81. Of course, Interleague play didn’t exist back then, as it wasn’t implemented into Major League Baseball until 1997.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite for the first game, as the spread currently is -154 as of Tuesday evening. It makes sense with Alec Marsh going against St. Louis’ Andre Pallante, who’s only allowed one run in his past two outings.
Despite being the underdogs, the Royals seem to have an excellent chance to surprise and win in Busch Stadium, especially if they faithfully travel to Ballpark Village at Busch as expected.
Can an I-70 Win Help the Royals for the Red Sox Series?
The Royals close out the first half of the 2024 season in Boston for a three-game set against the Red Sox. Boston currently holds a 1.5-game advantage for the final AL Wild Card spot.
The Red Sox have been on a tear in June and July, going 20-11 since June 1st. They are coming off a big series win over the rival Yankees last weekend, and they are currently demolishing the Oakland Athletics at Fenway Park, which should increase their Wild Card lead to two games by Wednesday morning.
The Red Sox will undoubtedly be a more challenging foe than the Cardinals. The Red Sox are not just 49-40 (soon-to-be 50-40). They also have a +36 run differential, much better than the Cardinals’ negative mark.
Boston is primarily led by third baseman Rafael Devers, who has hit 21 home runs and sports a 157 wRC+ mark as of Tuesday. Devers lost out to Cleveland’s Jose Ramirez for the starting spot at third base, but one could argue that Devers has been more productive this year than the Guardians’ franchise player.
Like the Royals, the Red Sox have a stellar staff. Their starting pitching ranks 7th in ERA and 3rd in WHIP. Unlike the Royals, though, Boston has a strong bullpen. Their relief ERA and WHIP rank 10th in baseball, and the bullpen has the lowest BB/9 in Major League Baseball. That is a far cry from the Royals’ relievers, who rank 24th in BB/9.
With a series against the A’s leading up to their matchup with the Royals, it’s possible that the Red Sox could be winners of eight of their last nine going into Friday’s game.
Thus, the Royals must take advantage of the short series against the Cardinals and build confidence before heading to Beantown. It will be vital to get some momentum on the hitting end going in St. Louis, especially with the Royals’ best three starters going against the Red Sox this weekend (Cole Ragans on Friday, Seth Lugo on Saturday, Brady Singer on Sunday, tentatively).
A sweep of the Cardinals on Wednesday and taking at least two of three against the Red Sox could improve the Royals’ record to 53-44 at the All-Star Break. That is not only three wins away from their total win in 2023, but it would also close the gap between them and the Red Sox.
Even if the Red Sox swept the A’s, they would be 53-42 if they lost two of three against the Royals this weekend. That would put the Red Sox’s winning percentage at .557, just .011 better than the Royals at the break.
Kansas City has a prime opportunity this week to earn bragging rights over their Missouri rival and make up important ground in the Wild Card race.
Let’s hope the Royals don’t waste it.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jeff Roberson
The I-70 thing aside, I despise St. Louis and all its self-annointed “best fans in baseball.”
I attended a then-private collage with a bunch of rich, privileged St. Louis kids; arrogant snobs all.
The humidity in that city is unbearable and The Arch remains by far my most overrated, disappointing
tourist experience. Had to wait in line forever, took forever to reach the top, the windows were tiny
and the view was mostly of East St. Louis and The Big Muddy and ugly barges. Big effing deal.
I have only really visited, and didn’t grow up in this area, but I think St. Louis is a great city to visit. I also appreciate that Cardinals fans appreciate baseball first and foremost, though I think the “Best Fans in Baseball” was more of something that Joe Buck kinda hyped up. There are some obnoxious Cardinals fans, but haven’t really encountered them in the few games I attended at Busch (also a big fan of Busch Stadium and their setup).
I think there’s a lot about the city that I struggle with, which is why I probably would never move there. It’s a very segregated city, even more so than KC, which says something. I also don’t like how deserted the downtown gets either. Often times, only a Royals or Blues game is the only thing going on. Plus, it feels like so much of the city and it’s culture happens in the ‘burbs, which is kind of weird. Kudos to St. Louis being a great baseball town, but I feel like that’s kind of about it (though I am the rare cat that does love St. Louis style pizza).