The Royals system has seen impressive improvement after taking some lumps over the past two years. Going into Sunday’s games, this is how the Royals affiliates are faring record-wise so far in 2024.
- Triple-A: Omaha Storm Chasers: 52-27
- Double-A: Northwest Arkansas Naturals: 39-36
- High-A: Quad Cities River Bandits: 35-39
- Low-A: Columbia Fireflies: 41-33
Three of the Royals affiliates have winning records this season. That is an impressive turnaround from last year, where three of the four affiliates had losing records (and the Fireflies, who had the lone winning record in the Royals system, were only one game over .500).
A big reason for the turnaround has been the better performance of prospects in the Royals system. Major outlets like Baseball America, Fangraphs, Prospects Live, and MLB Pipeline have typically ranked the Royals system near the bottom of the league. However, some bounce-back performances from key players in the Royals’ Minor League system should give hope that better days could be ahead for the overall Royals organization under JJ Picollo.
In this post, I will highlight some prospects who have had promising seasons but still carry their share of concerns, which could make them possible trade candidates by the August Deadline.
I will not talk about Gavin Cross or Blake Mitchell, who have done well in 2024 in Double-A and Low-A, respectively. While they are indeed standing out, I find it hard to believe Picollo will part ways with either prospect, especially since they could both be back in the Top-100 rankings by most major prospect outlets by the end of the 2024 season.
Let’s look at four prospects, one from each affiliate, who are off to solid starts this year and are worth following in July.
Omaha: Noah Murdock, RP
2024 stats in 22 games and 32 IP between Northwest Arkansas and Omaha: 1.69 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 1.94 K/BB ratio.
Murdock isn’t ranked in the Top 30 of the Royals system by any major outlets, but he’s getting more attention after solid campaigns in Northwest Arkansas and Omaha this year.
The ERA and WHIP are impressive this year, but Murdock has channeled his command better since arriving in Omaha. With the Storm Chasers, Murdock sports a 31% K% and K-BB% of 20.7%. Furthermore, Murdock has also limited the hard contact, especially compared to peers John McMillon and Steven Cruz, Storm Chaser relievers on the 40-man roster (unlike Murdock).
Murdock primarily relies on his sinker, which he throws 51.5% of the time with the Storm Chasers. The pitch not only averages 95.5 MPH but also fares quite favorably in other metrics, especially compared to McMillon and Cruz’s fastball offerings.
Of course, this is just a tiny sample for Murdock. He’s only thrown 130 pitches in Omaha and only has 8 IP under his belt. Regression could hit him soon, especially since he posted a 5.87 ERA in 69 IP with the Naturals in 2023.
However, it’s easy to see and like Murdock’s potential, mainly when he showcases movement and command of the sinker like this strikeout in his June 11th Storm Chasers debut.
Will the Royals see that potential and tap Murdock for a bullpen spot this year? Or is he better as an additional piece in a possible trade?
Murdock’s performance over the next month could determine the scenario with the 25-year-old reliever out of Virginia.
Northwest Arkansas: Cayden Wallace, 3B
2024 Stats in 33 games with Naturals: .282/.350/.427, 0.35 BB/K, 118 wRC+, 3 HR, 16 RBI, 2 SB
Until Wallace landed on the injured list on May 22nd, he appeared to be breaking out with the Naturals at the plate.
Wallace had 140 plate appearances with the Naturals in 2023, and his numbers were a bit pedestrian: 75 wRC+, .126 ISO, and .662 OPS. This season, he has accumulated the same number of Double-A plate appearances as he did in 2023, and he has improved his wRC+ to 118, his ISO to .145, and his OPS to .777. That strong performance has helped him rise to a Top-10 3B prospect in baseball this week with the graduation of Cincinnati’s Noelvi Marte.
It will be interesting to see if Wallace can get back into form when he returns from the injured list (he’s been on a rehab stint at the Surprise complex). Furthermore, the timing of Wallace being named a Top-10 3B prospect by Pipeline and Maikel Garcia moving to second base is also intriguing. It could be a sign that the Royals believe Wallace could be a candidate to start at 3B as soon as 2025, and they may be preparing Garcia appropriately so he could be used more as a utility infielder who can move around the field.
At the very least, Wallace’s hitting profile fits at the hot corner much better than Garcia’s, especially from a power perspective.
The only area where Wallace has regressed is in his plate discipline, as his BB/K ratio decreased from 0.52 in 2023 with the Naturals to 0.35 this season. His K% is still under 20%, which is good, but his BB% has declined by 2.2%. Wallace’s more aggressive approach has produced results so far. However, stabilizing those BB and K numbers could be better for his long-term outlook at the MLB level.
Nonetheless, Garcia has proved to be an elite third baseman defensively. If Garcia’s bat turns around this year, it will be harder for the Royals to hold onto Wallace, especially with him being closer to the MLB level than expected.
The Royals also have options in CJ Alexander and Devin Mann, who could play 3B, but they won’t generate nearly as much in a trade as Wallace. So it may make sense for the Royals to trade away Wallace, especially if it can net them a higher-profile player in the trade market.
Quad Cities: Frank Mozzicato, SP
2024 Stats in 12 Stats with River Bandits: 2.45 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 1.19 K/BB ratio.
The Royals’ first pick in the 2021 draft, Mozzicato, has had a peculiar season in High-A that’s made it challenging to determine his outlook as a pitching prospect.
In 12 starts with Quad Cities, Mozzicato has mostly kept opposing hitters at bay. He has a 2.45 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, and he’s only allowed a HR/FB rate of 9.7%. Furthermore, his opponent’s batting average has been among the best of pitching prospects at his age, as highlighted by Raising Royals on Twitter, the Royals’ official Player Development account.
However, Mozzicato’s strikeout and walk numbers have slightly plummeted from 2023.
In nine starts and 36.2 IP with the River Bandits last year, Mozzicato had a 25.3% K% and 18.5% BB% (which resulted in a K-BB% of 6.7%). This year, he has lowered his BB% to 15.6%, but his K% has dropped dramatically to 18.6%. As a result, his K-BB% is 3.0% as of Sunday. 6.7% was not good enough in 2023, so to see it 3.7% worse is not a good sign.
A big issue for Mozzicato has been fastball velocity, according to reports. That has been a big reason why Mozzicato hasn’t been sporting as high a K% as last year in Quad Cities or even Columbia. That said, it seems like Mozzicato is working on other things with the Royals pitching team to help his overall development, as highlighted by Preston Farr of “Farm to Fountains.”
Mozzicato’s breaking stuff remains some of the best in the Royals organization, especially at High-A, even with Ben Kudrna on the Quad Cities pitching staff. Furthermore, despite the high walk numbers, he seems to hit the right spots more often than not with his pitches. If Mozzicato can add more life to his fastball, he could generate even more chases and become more dominant in High-A than he already is.
Nonetheless, the high walk and low strikeout numbers are alarming, and one has to wonder if Mozzicato just may be a long-term project too risky to hold onto. That could make him a likely piece in a trade as an organization with a better track record and improving pitcher velocity could perhaps better tap into Mozzicato’s skill set.
Mozzicato is still young at 21, so he hopefully has a long career ahead of him. Thus, the Royals may be better off cashing in on his value now, especially with how volatile pitching prospects can be (i.e., Asa Lacy).
Columbia: Erick Peña, OF
2024 Stats in 67 games and 236 plate appearances with Fireflies: .220/.313/.403, 0.28 BB/K, 112 wRC+, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 8 SB
Peña has been one of Columbia’s most fascinating prospect stories this season.
On one end, he’s not a prospect anymore. He has a career K% of 41.5% and a career batting average of .166 in 1,040 Minor League plate appearances. He’s been in Low-A Columbia for three straight seasons and has only made marginal progress with his contact ability with the Fireflies since debuting there in 2022.
However, he is still 21, so he still has time to turn things around, even if he may never live up to his once-massive prospect hype. He could be the kind of player who could make his MLB debut at 25 or 26 and find a niche as a Gregory Polanco-esque power hitter who won’t ever hit for a high average but could be depended on for power from the left side of the plate.
Royals fans may be starting to think there may be some hope for Peña as a prospect because he’s absolutely mashed this month in June, as highlighted by Raising Royals.
The results have certainly been more prevalent this season in Columbia for the Dominican-born outfielder. That said, it also seems like he has cleaned up some mechanics with his swing and stance this season, as highlighted by Farr.
The Royals hired hitting coach Ari Adut from the Phillies organization to be the Fireflies’ hitting coach in 2023. Peña has been Adut’s priority since joining the Royals organization. Therefore, this may not be a case of just Peña seeing better results in 2024. It’s a sign that the processes the Royals hitting development team is implementing at the lower levels are coming to fruition.
That’s a good sign not just for Peña but for Royals hitters in the system overall, especially those rawer position prospects transitioning from the Dominican Summer League or Arizona Complex league.
Before Picollo’s tenure, raw high school or international prospects seemed to hit a wall when they moved stateside. That’s happening less this season (Erick Torres, Austin Charles, and Derlin Figueroa also have been doing well in Columbia). Adut’s work and the Royals hitting development team overall (led by Drew Saylor) can be credited for that success.
Then again, though, this may just be another “hot stretch” for Peña, and he may fall back to earth soon, especially with his BABIP hovering at .364, which feels unsustainable. Peña just may be an additional throw-in to sweeten a possible trade, much like a DSL prospect who is often included in many trades to give teams a possible “wild card” prospect.
Peña has a solid prospect pedigree and better results this year that could intrigue any organization, especially one looking for a high-upside project that could help boost their hitting in Low-A or High-A immediately.
Photo Credit: Abbie Parr / Getty Images
Cayden Wallace might trigger a trade, but the bait could be Massey. Wallace takes up 3b and Garcia moves to 2b, where his bat plays better.
Moscato is intriguing, and we should try to hang on to him.
I think that could be the idea. I wonder if the Royals may be open to trading Massey, which is why we’re seeing Garcia playing more second base. Wallace and Garcia’s bat would both play better at 3rd and 2nd respectively. I am curious though if Wallace’s bat was seen as possibly be ready by ’25. I could see a scenario where the Royals acquire a 3B for this year and next with the idea of Wallace maybe debuting midway through ’25. They’ve kept thing similarly slow with Gentry, and I think the Royals would like Gentry, Cross, and maybe Wallace to come all together. Then again, I could also see Gentry and Wallace being trade bait in the right scenario.
I like Mozzicato too but the velocity issues are concerning. He’s obviously a good enough pitcher to limit damage, and his breaking stuff is solid, but the decrease in Ks this year just sticks out to me and not in a good way. I think with Kudrna and Zobac in High-A, losing Mozzicato can be absorbed, though I’m not sure about a lot of the arms coming up in Columbia (Wolters may need more seasoning in Low-A).