Last night was a prime example of what the Royals’ pitching has been like overall this season.
Brady Singer pitched well (but not great, in my opinion, as he only had a 24% CSW). He went five innings, allowed one run on three hits and two walks, and struck out four. While it wasn’t Singer’s most sterling outing of the year, he did enough to help the Royals secure the win in Arlington against the Rangers.
Unfortunately, the bullpen failed to hold Singer and the Royals’ slim lead in the bottom of the sixth.
John Schreiber and Sam Long combined to allow five runs on three hits and one walk in one inning of work (Schreiber went 0.1 IP; Long went 0.2). Neither pitcher struck out a Rangers batter, and Schreiber and Long posted CSW numbers of 29 percent and 20 percent, respectively. To make matters worse, both relievers allowed a lot of hard contact, as Rangers hitters produced a 96.9 MPH average exit velocity on Schreiber and a 99.7 MPH exit velocity on Long.
As expected, Royals fans had a meltdown about the Royals bullpen on Twitter, which has been a common theme to see since May.
(You know it’s terrible when a local KC snack brand is making comments.)
As a group, the Royals bullpen ranks near the bottom of the league in most categories.
They rank 20th in bullpen ERA, 28th in WHIP and H/9, 24th in BB/9, and 30th in K/9. While the starting pitching has been a major upgrade this year from Royals seasons past (especially in the “rebuilding” era), the bullpen, unfortunately, has not been able to consistently be reliable, which puts even more pressure on the Royals’ starting pitchers to produce every start.
Granted, improving the bullpen seems to be a priority for JJ Picollo and the Royals’ front office right now.
In addition to Adam, Michael Kopech is another reliever tied to the Royals. Thus, the Royals are trying to find arms that can boost a group that has been pretty lackluster for most of this season.
That said, how aggressive should the Royals be, especially with their 42-35 record and barely hanging onto a Wild Card spot as of Saturday?
Let’s examine the Royals’ bullpen issues and consider what steps they should take to improve this group in the short and long term.
The Royals Bullpen Issues Are All Tied to Stuff
Last season, the Royals bullpen struggled with walking batters.
According to Fangraphs, they ranked second-to-last in BB/9 and third-to-last in BB%. The Royals were not too bad in striking batters out, ranking 14th in K/9 (though 23rd in K%). However, their K-BB% ranked 25th in the league, which showed that their walk issues affected their bullpen overall.
As a result, Picollo and the Royals prioritized acquiring relievers who had a history of limiting free passes on the basepaths. That included acquiring Will Smith and Chris Stratton via free agency and Nick Anderson and John Schreiber via trade.
When looking at the strikeout and walk data from those four over the past two years, Royals fans can see why Picollo acquired the four veteran relievers.
In 2023, the Royals bullpen had a BB% of 10.9% and a K-BB% of 11.9%. Thus, one would think that those four relievers would come in and automatically improve the Royals in both of those areas.
However, let’s look at what the four are doing this year with the Royals.
All four relievers are posting K-BB% under 10%, which is not good. In addition to the walks being up for Anderson and Stratton, the strikeouts for this group have been down across the board.
What is causing this unfortunate trend? It can be tied to the stuff of these four relievers.
Let’s compare the Stuff+ metrics for this group of four from 2022 and 2023 (top) and this season (bottom).
Smith’s Stuff has gone down slightly. However, Schreiber’s Stuff+ has declined 15 points, Stratton’s 12 points, and Anderson’s five points. Their respective fastballs have seen the biggest hits, as Schreiber has lost 33 points on his fastball Stuff+, Stratton 16 points, Anderson 18 points, and Smith four points.
Why is Stuff important?
Well, the reality is that pitchers have to sport great stuff to get swings, misses, and even chases. Pitchers can afford to make mistakes when they have great stuff because hitters will chase when they have less time to react or can’t pick up the pitches as well due to their movement.
When stuff declines, hitters become more locked in, resulting in the decline of chases. In addition to the Royals relievers ranking last in Stuff+ this year, they also rank last in O-Swing% (swings outside of the strike zone).
Schreiber, Stratton, Anderson, and Smith have seen similar struggles in O-Swing%, which is down across the board compared to the previous two seasons. (2022 and 2023 are top; 2024 is bottom).
Smith has seen a nine percent decline, Anderson has seen an 11.9% decline, Stratton has seen a five percent decline, and Schreiber has seen a 3.8% decline. In addition to inducing fewer swings outside the strike zone, they have also seen bumps in contact percentage. Smith’s contact percentage has gone up 3.6 points, Schreiber’s 10.8 points, and Anderson’s 4.2 points. Stratton has seen a positive regression, as it has gone down 0.9 points.
These four relievers were expected to carry and turn around the Royals bullpen in 2024, especially in the area of walks. Unfortunately for this group, because of their declining stuff, they have generated fewer chases, resulting in more walks and more contact by opposing hitters.
Consequently, the Royals bullpen has suffered the same trend as these four veteran relievers (fewer chases, more walks, and more hits). Thus, manager Matt Quatraro has seen his options more limited in high-leverage situations as the season has progressed.
Looking Within the Organization (And Not Just Outside)
Baseball fans know that relievers are volatile. Royals fans are learning that in good and bad ways this year.
Regarding the bad, we see that Smith, Stratton, Schreiber, and Anderson are having rough statistical seasons. Conversely, Aroldis Chapman, making $10.5 million for the Pirates this year, may have a 3.81 ERA but has a 9.00 BB/9, a 4.87 FIP, and -0.3 fWAR. So veteran relievers can always be a hit-and-miss, especially in free agency.
Regarding rebuilding the Royals’ bullpen, Picollo and the front office need to look at Oakland as a model for turning things around in a relatively short time.
In 2023, according to Fangraphs, the Athletics had the worst bullpen in baseball with a -0.1 fWAR mark as a group. The group has improved to 17th this season with a 1.3 fWAR mark.
The Athletics have improved, but not necessarily by spending big money on relievers in the free-agent market. Instead, they have improved through pitchers they developed internally after acquiring them from other organizations.
Luke Erceg and Austin Adams were both purchased for cash. Dany Jimenez was a former Rule 5 pick. Mason Miller was initially a starting pitching prospect in the A’s system (which explains his high prospect ranking). While the A’s bullpen certainly isn’t perfect, they have at least been way more effective than the Royals so far this season.
The Royals need to embody that approach instead of relying on free agency. While it’s nice that owner John Sherman is willing to pay for quality bullpen arms, they often don’t live up to their value, as we see this year.
Picollo successfully acquired the little-known James McArthur from the Phillies for cash a year ago. McArthur may not be “closer” material, as he has regressed slightly this year. However, he has the skills and ability to be a late-innings option or succeed in the middle innings at the very least.
The Royals need to scour not just the free agent market but also other organizations’ Triple-A squads to see if there are relievers who are not getting opportunities but could succeed if given the right opportunity and coached in the right way. There will be no perfect options. However, the Royals need to look for arms with big stuff that could be acquired, even if they have concerning flaws (i.e., a high number of walks allowed or control issues).
Furthermore, Kansas City needs to take a risk by giving guys within the organization a chance to prove themselves. Jonathan Bowlan is wasting his time as a starter in Omaha. He has the stuff to be an elite reliever and should be allowed to simplify his pitch mix and just let it rip like Miller in Oakland.
The same goes for Anthony Veneziano, who has a profile similar to Bowlan but less upside.
Will Klein has had mixed results at the Major League level thus far. However, he has the stuff to help the Royals bullpen and wouldn’t require any significant roster move.
The Royals have other relievers like Colin Selby, Steven Cruz, Evan Sisk, and Walter Pennington, who either came from other organizations (Selby, Cruz, and Sisk) or were unheralded as prospects (Pennington was undrafted). They have produced the kind of strikeout and stuff potential in Omaha that is sorely needed at the Major League level.
Now, will their stuff translate to Kansas City? Who knows? We have seen guys showcase stuff in Omaha (Long, Altavilla, Duffey) but demonstrate mixed results at the Major League level.
Nonetheless, the Royals know what they are getting with guys like Schreiber, Smith, Anderson, and Stratton, and the upside is pretty limited at this point.
The Royals have little to lose by giving both options in the organization a chance first and then acquiring unheralded arms from other organizations. The Royals can turn them into Major League relievers after the Trade Deadline or in 2025 with some pitching development in Omaha.
Adam and Kopech could be options to help right away. However, they will be expensive and aren’t long-term solutions.
Instead, the Royals need to be more like the Athletics and trust their pitching development, which has already seen gains with guys like Marsh this season and some other arms in the Minor League system.
The bullpen needs a mix-up and a jolt, even if it may be risky.
That jolt won’t entirely come from veterans, whether on the active roster or another team.
Photo Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
Mr. O’B, Completely agree re: giving some more Omaha guys a shot.
There seems to be little to lose and much to gain. Try NOW. The team
is headed south fast, in danger of falling double digits behind Cleveland
by the All Star Break and this team is not built to overcome that big a deficit.
Yeah, it will be interesting to see. A change is needed and I get that JJ doesn’t want to play “tryouts” with this young group like they did last year (which had mixed results). At the same time, it’s obvious that the bullpen misses the stuff element overall and I’m not sure some on the roster are going to rebound anytime soon. Giving some of the AAA arms a chance and then parting ways with them if they don’t work out is the way to go.
Give the AAA kids multiple chances transitioning from starter to a Show reliever as it’s a BIG change to adapt to(i.e. Veneziano & Bowlan).
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