The Royals bounced back from a tough walk-off loss on Monday to secure a 4-1 win on Tuesday evening against the Baltimore Orioles, a playoff team in 2023 and one of the favorites in the AL East.
Alec Marsh’s sterling pitching performance is a big reason the Royals took the second game of this series. The 2019 compensation round pick out of Arizona State pitched a career-high 7 IP and allowed only one run on two hits and one walk while striking out five.
Marsh hasn’t been the lone success story for the Royals rotation this season. As Tweeted out by 610 Radio’s Cody Tapp, the Royals’ starting pitching group has been stellar through the first five games of the 2024 season.
However, Marsh is a prime example of the early success of the Royals pitching development and coaching staff in 2024.
Even though Marsh seemed to be on the outside looking in when it came to a spot in the rotation for 2024, the 25-year-old right-hander was impressive in Cactus League play.
In six outings and 17.2 IP this spring, he posted a 3.57 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and struck out 20 batters while only walking seven. Because of his impressive performance and Jordan Lyles’s slow start due to injury, manager Matt Quatraro named Marsh the Royals’ No. 5 starter to begin the year near the conclusion of Spring Training.
Of course, there were some concerns about Marsh earning the spot over Lyles and Daniel Lynch, who was also in the mix for the last rotation spot this spring. After all, Marsh posted a 5.69 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 17 outings and 74.1 IP in 2023.
In one start, we have seen a new Marsh who was more effective with his command and showcased an arsenal that’s a sharp deviation from what we saw from Marsh in his MLB debut a season ago.
This is a sign of good things to come for Marsh and this Royals pitching staff.
What We Saw from Marsh Tonight
Last season, Marsh primarily relied on his fastball, throwing it 37.3% of the time, according to Savant. Here’s what his overall pitch quality looked like last year as well, from a PLV perspective.
The four-seamer proved to be a rough pitch for Marsh in more ways than one. It sported a PLV of 4.49, the worst mark of any pitches he threw last year. Additionally, even though the pitch did sport a whiff rate of 25.8%, according to Savant, the four-seamer also gave up a wOBA of .410 in 2023, the second-highest mark in that category, behind only the changeup (which had a .501 wOBA).
In today’s start, Marsh threw a much more diverse mix, highlighted primarily by his changeup, his most thrown pitch in his first outing of the 2024 season.
Even though the changeup was the most-thrown pitch, Marsh sported a balanced mix against the Orioles overall. He threw the sweeper 24% of the time and the four-seamer 22% of the time, both not far off from his changeup usage (25%).
In addition to a diverse mix, he succeeded with this revamped repertoire. Not only did he generate a high number of strikes, but he also limited the hard contact.
Marsh only gave up an average exit velocity of 87.5 MPH on the 18 balls in play he allowed. He also sported a whiff rate of 25% and a CSW of 32% overall, which shows that Marsh wasn’t just overpowering guys but doing an excellent job of “raiding the zone” (further evidenced by the 14 called strikes).
Marsh’s best pitch on Tuesday night proved to be his sweeper.
He generated a 63% whiff rate and a 50% CSW% on 18 pitches. When hitters put the ball in play on the sweeper (only twice), he only allowed an average exit velocity of 71.2 MPH. That’s a recipe for success in the long term, especially if Marsh wants to remain in the rotation.
Here’s a complete look at what his sweeper did tonight on his pitch description chart.
Marsh did an excellent job locating the sweeper low, which helped him generate many whiffs (four, specifically). Regarding his overall mix, he located his pitches frequently in the zone, a common thread for the Royals starters to begin the year.
The only concern is that Marsh got lucky with his four-seamer tonight.
The pitch wasn’t located incredibly well, as it probably caught too much of the middle of the zone than he probably wanted (instead of up and on the edges). However, the Orioles didn’t do damage on those four-seamers in the zone, which can be seen in the pitch result chart below.
Baltimore hitters fouled a lot of those middle-high fastballs. On another night, those foul balls could be base hits, leading to rougher outings like he had a season ago. His four-seam command will definitely be worth watching in his next start, which likely will come against the Astros (more on that later).
Conversely, he did a good job generating called strikes low in the zone with the four-seamer.
That success could be credited to his higher usage of his changeup, which was located in a similar strike zone area tonight. That’s a sign of the Royals’ pitching coaches impacting Marsh. Not only are they helping him command his pitches better, but they are also helping him sequence better, which keeps hitters off balance.
With only two hits in seven innings, the Orioles’ hitters were off-balance all evening.
What to Look Forward to from Marsh and the Other Royals Starters in This Next Sequence
Cole Ragans is expected to start tomorrow, though the weather appears dicey, and it’s unlikely that the game will be played (which may be a blessing since the Royals will have to face Corbin Burnes, formerly of the Brewers).
If the Royals-Orioles game is postponed, Kansas City will return home with a four-game set against the White Sox, who have struggled to begin the 2024 season (they were 0-4 going into tonight’s game).
Ragans and the rest of the Royals’ starters will be watched closely over the next four games to see how their pitch mixes adapt to a lesser opponent.
The Royals will be favored against the South Siders, and the batters will not be of the caliber of the Twins and Orioles. Thus, Royals fans will be asking themselves two critical questions leading up to this series:
Will the Royals starting pitching continue to hum with their improved pitch mixes?
Or will we see some regression, especially with the hype of Opening Weekend behind them?
The Royals will play the Astros right after the White Sox, so they must take advantage of Chicago’s visit to the K to open the homestand. A strong series against the White Sox, especially on a starting pitching end, could help build positive momentum for the Astros, who are 1-4 but coming off a no-hit victory over the Blue Jays on Monday night.
JJ Picollo and the Royals front office promised to improve the Royals starting pitching this offseason, both on an acquisition and development end.
The early success of this group, capped off by Marsh’s performance tonight, should help Royals feel optimistic that the Royals are making progress and following through on that promise.
Photo Credit: Vaughn Ridley/GettyImages
[…] O’Brien goes deep into Alec Marsh’s strong start: “Conversely, he did a good job generating called strikes low in the zone with the four-seamer. […]
[…] being the key piece in a trade to Cincinnati for new leadoff hitter Jonathan India. As for Marsh, he had a great start but faltered a bit mid-season and was demoted to Omaha. However, he returned and showed flashes of […]