Regarding second-base production in 2023, the Royals ranked at the lower end of the league in most categories, which was unsurprising for a team with a 56-106 record a season ago.
Kansas City’s second basemen ranked 26th in wRC+ with a 74 mark, which was better than just the Brewers, Pirates, White Sox, and Rockies.
Thanks to the stellar defense of Michael Massey and Nicky Lopez though, the Royals ranked not just 7th in Def, but 23rd in fWAR. While the latter is still not a good ranking, it’s encouraging to see that the Royals at least took care of things on the defensive end in 2023.
For the Royals to take a step forward in the win column in 2024, the offensive production at second base has to improve.
Lopez is gone, as he is now a member of his hometown Chicago White Sox (he grew up in Naperville). Massey returns though for another season and seems to be the favorite for the Royals’ second base job, as MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers wrote about in her most recent Royals newsletter.
Massey is the incumbent, and he’ll get a chance to retain the starting role in Spring Training. The 25-year-old had quite the roller coaster of a season last year and finished with a slash line of .229/.274/.381 with 15 home runs and 18 doubles. Massey posted just a 5.2% walk rate paired with a 21.5% strikeout rate. There’s clearly power in his offensive profile, and his defense is solid, as he posted 3 outs above average last season and developed good rapport with shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. up the middle.
“Around the horn: Mixing, matching at second base” by Anne Rogers; MLB.com/Royals
As Rogers mentioned in her piece, Massey went through an up-and-down season that was particularly highlighted by a horrendous April.
In 77 plate appearances that month, Massey slashed .176/.182/.179 with a .371 OPS. That also included 29 strikeouts and only one walk (a 0.03 BB/K ratio). He did bounce back in May (.319/.412/.528 slash; four home runs in 85 plate appearances), and overall hit much better in the second half of the year (.231/.271/.434 slash; 11 HR and 33 RBI in 241 plate appearances). Nonetheless, he still struggled at various points in the year, which explain his overall underwhelming offensive numbers from last season, as Rogers pointed out.
While Massey should be given the first shot at the second-base job, he will certainly be challenged in Spring Training by a few candidates on the Royals’ 40-man roster.
The two obvious ones are 2020 first-round pick Nick Loftin and former Colorado and Miami utility player Garrett Hampson, who was acquired by the Royals as a free agent early this offseason. However, Royals fans shouldn’t sleep on Samad Taylor, who struggled in his first exposure to the Majors in 2023 but was outstanding in Triple-A Omaha (.301/.418/.466 slash with 8 home runs and 43 SB in 414 plate appearances).
Let’s take a look at Massey’s 2023, what Royals fans can expect from him in 2024, and what Loftin, Hampson, and Taylor could bring to the table as well at the keystone position in Kansas City.
The Upside and Risk of Massey’s Profile (Especially on a Hitting End)
On a baserunning and defensive end, Massey is as solid as it gets at the second-base position.
Last year, in terms of “runner runs” via Savant, Massey was the fourth-best Royals baserunner in this category in 2023 with a 1 mark (he was behind only Bobby Witt, Jr., Kyle Isbel, and MJ Melendez). On the defensive end, he posted an OAA of 3, which ranked 6th overall of qualified Royals fielders last season, via Savant. The defensive improvement was a particularly encouraging development, as Massey in 2022 was 3 runs below average at 2nd base and 1 run below average at 3rd base.
Even for those Royals fans who don’t fully buy the advanced analytical numbers when it comes to evaluating defense, they cannot argue the sensational plays that he and Witt made frequently up the middle last season.
Granted, Lopez was also known for his stellar baserunning and defense in his career with the Royals (though the former had regressed a bit in 2023). On the other hand, what prevented Lopez from fully capturing the job was his questionable bat, especially after his breakout season in 2021.
Unfortunately for Massey, his hitting hasn’t quite fully come around just yet, as he doesn’t have the 104 wRC+ and 6.0 fWAR season on his resume like Lopez did.
In fact, Massey saw some regression overall from his 52-game rookie sample in 2022 to his 129-game sophomore season in 2023. His wRC+ went from 92 in 2022 to 73 in 2023. He also saw some decline in not just his average exit velocity (89.3 MPH in 2022 to 88.6 MPH last year) but his barrel rate as well (13% in 2022 to 7.8% in 2023).
On the other hand, there were also a lot of signs that Massey suffered from some unfortunate batted-ball luck last year as well.
Massey’s BABIP regressed from .304 in 2022 to .261 in 2023. Furthermore, his xwOBA of .320 was considerably higher than his .283 wOBA. That wOBA and xwOBA difference can also be seen in the rolling breakdown chart data, via Savant.
While Massey still had some considerable dips in both charts, the valleys are not as damaging (i.e. low) or as frequent in his xwOBA chart compared to his wOBA.
The most intriguing aspect though about Massey is his power profile, especially for a second baseman who sports solid defensive and baserunning skills.
Last year, Massey hit 15 home runs and improved his ISO from .133 in 2022 to .152 in 2023. His power tool was pretty consistent as well throughout most of the season, except for a slump that he went through from around his 225 BBE to 275th BBE, which can be seen in his power PLV chart.
As Royals fans can see, Massey’s expected extra bases added per BBE dipped to the 10th percentile around the 275th BBE. That’s Lopez-level power percentiles right there, which can be seen below.
Thankfully for Massey, his power trend spiked back up down the stretch, which helped Massey finish with a season-expected extra bases added per BBE mark above the MLB average.
It does seem though that Massey has had a lot more success hitting for power away from Kauffman Stadium, though his overall approach is worse on the road.
Here’s a look at Massey’s home/away splits from last season:
As Royals fans can see, Massey hit 10 of his 15 total home runs away from Kauffman Stadium. That included this bomb he hit in Fenway Park back in August.
On the other hand, all his hitting numbers beyond home runs and slugging percentage pale in comparison to what he did at Kauffman Stadium. Not only was Massey’s OPS 46 points higher at home than it was on the road, but he also showed more plate discipline at the K (0.45) than on the road (0.10).
Therefore, one has to wonder, would Massey have more value in a trade, especially for a club with not just a second-base need but who also plays in a more hitter-friendly home park?
That trade possibility depends on what the other Royals second-base candidates can do not just in Cactus League play in Arizona this spring, but overall in 2024 as well.
Who Could Replace Massey at Second?
When comparing the numbers from a season ago, Massey still profiles well from that Loftin-Hampson-Taylor group, especially in terms of fWAR.
On the other hand, Loftin may have outperformed not just Massey, but Taylor (who he already outperformed) and Hampson had Loftin been given more plate appearances a season ago. Of that group of four, Loftin posted the best average (.323), wRC+ (118), and the lowest K rate (17.6%).
In addition to his solid results from last season, Loftin also showed impressive decision-making skills at the plate, even if it didn’t result in a tremendous number of walks. Here’s a look at Loftin’s PLV Decision Value chart from a season ago and let’s look at how it compares to Massey’s.
Based on the Decision Value rolling chart data, Massey struggled with his decision-making at the plate last year.
He only had one period of time where he was above the league average in terms of runs added per 100 pitches (around the 700th pitch mark). Furthermore, his season average in this category hovered around the 15th or so percentile, which is pretty below average.
On the flip side, Loftin posted a season average of runs added per 100 pitches that sat around the 80th percentile and he was above the 90th percentile for most of the year. Granted, Loftin’s sample is so small, but it’s still impressive nonetheless.
Not only does it compare favorably to Massey, but also Hampson and Taylor as well, which Royals fans can see in their respective Decision Value charts below.
Taylor’s chart looks similar to Loftin’s at the start, but Taylor sees a much sharper drop around the 220th pitch mark. As for Hampson, he seemed to show improvement in his decision-making at the start of the season but then saw a drop around the 700th pitch mark and was pretty much an average player in terms of his decision-making at the plate for the remainder of the 2023 season.
Hampson may not be much of a challenge for Massey, as Hampson’s role may be as a utility player and likely trade candidate at the Deadline, especially considering he is on a one-year, $2 million deal.
As for Taylor, he has the stolen-base upside (8 stolen bases last year in the Majors), but the high K-rate and questionable power don’t make him much of an upgrade over Massey (Taylor’s likely role may be like Hampson’s anyways).
The Taylor vs. Loftin Debate
Really, the Royals’ second base position in 2024 comes down between Massey and Loftin.
Does manager Matt Quatraro prefer Massey’s defense and power upside? Or does he like Loftin’s plate discipline and up-the-middle line drive-batted ball approach?
It’s pretty remarkable how different Massey and Loftin’s approaches are based on their PLV Batted Ball chart data, a feature from Pitcher List’s Kyle Bland that just recently released.
Just based on those heatmap charts, it seems like it would make more sense for the Royals to prefer Loftin’s gap-hitting approach to Massey’s pull-heavy profile. Furthermore, Massey’s batted-ball heatmap further confirms that his power would project better in a lefty-friendly ballpark like Yankees Stadium, Fenway, or even Guaranteed Rate Field on the South Side of Chicago.
For context, seven of his home runs last year came in those three parks, including this one in May against the White Sox’s Lance Lynn in May.
The only issue with Loftin though is that he pales defensively at second base compared to Massey.
Last year, Loftin was one run below average at second base, according to Savant. That is despite only having 13 attempts at the position. Furthermore, when looking at the defensive data of all four on Fangraphs, Loftin seemed to particularly struggle in range (RngR) at the keystone position, which explained lackluster OAA and UZR numbers in 2023.
It’s possible that Loftin could see a boost with more time at second base in 2024, much like we saw with Massey (and other Royals infielders) thanks to Royals infield coach Jose Alguacil. At the same time though, Loftin seems to profile more as a third-base type defensively. Unfortunately, I am not sure that he’s much of an upgrade over the current projected third baseman Maikel Garcia at this time.
Based on Garcia’s batted-ball PLV chart, it’s hard to see how Loftin would offer more power upside than the soon-to-be 24-year-old Venezuelan infielder. Garcia is much better at producing line drive and hard-hit fly balls, even if he doesn’t pull the ball very much.
Regardless, if there’s one thing JJ Picollo has demonstrated in his first two years as GM, it’s that he’s willing to be aggressive and listen to offers on most players on the Royals’ 40-man roster. Massey and Loftin have likely been part of trade talks in the past and they will likely be going forward.
Massey and Loftin both offer strengths and weaknesses at the keystone position for the Royals in 2024 and perhaps beyond.
Massey right now has the lead and should be the Royals’ starting second-baseman on Opening Day…
That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Loftin make his case for the job this spring, especially if he can tear the cover off the ball at the plate in Cactus League play.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Jeff Chiu
The Royals Reporter 
Mr. O’B, I get the distinct impression that second base will be decided by the ALL-Star break. Am I wrong? I’m kind of pulling for Massey if for no other reason thanthe team has never had a Jeff Kent-Like option there. To get some consistent slug out of this position could bea significant factor in a (unlikely) competition for the ALCentral crown.
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It seems like that would be the case. I think by the All Star Break and we will know whether Massey is the guy long term or if Loftin will be the one taking over. I could see a situation where Loftin starts in AAA and they ride Massey and Hampson to generate trade value for at least one.
As you said, if the Royals can get some production at 2B, then I think that could help their chances, especially if they can get Vinnie back and BWJ and Maikel continue to do what they did in ’23.
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Massey’s post ASG numbers compare favorably to Frazier’s full season. Avg, HR, OPS, K%, and errors. His rapport with Witt, Jr in the middle was amazing. And he’s 7 years younger.
That being said, there’s no sense in keeping him now, not with Frazier, Hampson, Loftin and Samad Taylor as potential 2B options.
So … If KC had $13M available for 2 years, why not take that money and use it on a closer? Why make your younger, higher upside 2B expendable to create at bats for someone who appears past his prime and had a terrible year in the field?
And didn’t Massey have a 62-game errorless streak in the minors? Top level defense is not new to him.
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I get what you’re saying. Initially, my gut was “they’re trading Massey.” But as I dove more into it, I’m not so sure.
I think Frazier is more there for utility and to push Massey to ensure that they avoid a slow start. That was a big issue last year, as Massey was awful and they didn’t have a whole lot of backup options. To be honest, if they were set on Frazier being the starter, he would be making more than $2 million this year.
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So, this isn’t as much of a comment as it is a question and potential request, because your analytics breakdowns are easily the best of anyone reporting on the Royals. Would it be possible to do an analytical dive into MLB farm systems to see how they actually rank? Here is my thought process. Last spring I learned there are expected or average stats kept in spring training games (!), based on what level the player is at within his organization. For example, AA hitters hit AAA pitchers with a certain batting average, which is (on average) lower than they hit AA pitchers; meanwhile their numbers against high-A pitchers are considerably better. With the amount of statistics being kept for both hitters and pitchers, would there be a way to compare the players at each level to the norm (adjusted for ballpark possibly?) and thereby see whose farm system ranks where? Because the current opinion-based system seems lacking, considering the amount of information available. Average, OPS (or OPS+), K:BB or K%-BB%, Iso, HHB, ERA, FIP, a similar strikeout/walk matrix for pitchers … There might be 10-15 categories involved. Then take opening day minor league rosters, see how they performed over the last half season, full season, or 2 seasons against different levels of competition, and rank from there. The example would be, a AA hitter got some at bats against current AAA pitchers, with an OPS .043 lower than other AA players, but his K-BB was .04 better. Meanwhile a pitcher in high-A did very well against AA competition, with an FIP 1.14 lower than other low-A guys and a K-BB 0.17 higher. And this would be computed for all minors players for each category chosen, until full team +/- or stats vs averages were compiled. It feels like a big undertaking, but with the stats readily available, the right program or algorithm could potentially be updated in real time. Thoughts? Sent from Yahoo Mail on Android
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[…] deal initially came off as a head-scratcher, especially since it seemed this offseason that Michael Massey would be given another shot to be the Royals’ Opening Day second baseman, especially after a strong finish in the final month of play last year. That said, that projection […]
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