The Royals seem pretty set for the 2024 season in the corner outfield positions.
In left field, the primary outfielder appears to be MJ Melendez, who will give up catching this season and be in the outfield full-time. In right field, Hunter Renfroe and Nelson Velazquez will rotate between the right field and the designated hitter position.
Center field on the other hand is a little less clear, though one outfielder does have a primary advantage for now.
That outfielder is Kyle Isbel.
Drew Waters and Dairon Blanco could compete for time in center field in 2024. That said, both will have to post tremendous numbers in Cactus League play this spring if they want to enter the starting centerfielder on Opening Day discussion.
Waters has the most power upside of the group, but he has struggled with strikeouts in his first two years in the Majors. As for Blanco, he’s shown to be a great addition to this Royals team, but he may be better utilized as a 4th outfielder than an everyday one.
Isbel may be the most complete candidate in center field for the Royals. While the bat still is a work in progress (.286 wOBA; 75 wRC+ in 313 plate appearances last year), he proved to be the Royals’ best defensive outfielder last year, as well as a productive runner on the bases, which both were confirmed by Statcast data.
What brings Isbel to the forefront of many Royals fans’ attention recently is the fact that the New York Mets signed Harrison Bader to a one-year deal this week to be their starting centerfielder (at least according to Roster Resource).
Bader does have a bit more of a track record at the Major League level than Isbel. On the flip side, when diving into the metrics, especially from a season ago, Isbel not only compares pretty favorably to Isbel but a couple of other outfielders who were on the free agent market this winter.
Let’s take a look at how Isbel compares and why he could be one of the most productive outfielders for the Royals in 2024.
Comparing Isbel to Bader, Taylor, and Kiermaier
Two other centerfielders who hit the free agent market this offseason were Kevin Kiermaier and former Royal Michael A. Taylor. Kiermaier has already signed, agreeing to return to the Blue Jays for another season, while Taylor remains a free agent as of January 6th.
Here’s how Isbel not only compares to Kiermaier and Taylor but Bader as well, via Fangraphs.
Kiermaier produced the best overall season of the group of four with a 2.2 fWAR mark, which is a big reason why the Blue Jays were willing to bring him back for 2024. Taylor was the second-best outfielder of the sample, primarily due to his 21 home runs with the Twins in 2023 (he was the only one with double-digit home runs).
However, Isbel was tied with Bader in fWAR (1.1) despite playing seven fewer games last season.
What’s interesting to see is that while Isbel wasn’t the best in any particular category, he didn’t really bottom out in any category worth paying attention to. He had the second-best K rate at 18.8%; 3rd-best ISO at .140; 3rd-best wOBA (.286) and wRC+ (75); and second-best BsR (4.2).
And Isbel is doing this despite being the projected lowest-paid player of the bunch in 2024 (Isbel is still in pre-arbitration).
Isbel Standing Out in Batted Ball and Plate Discipline Metrics
In terms of an offensive end, Isbel still pales overall compared to the other three.
His xWOBA of .286 is the worst of the group and eight points lower than Bader, the second-worst hitter of this sample. On the other hand, when looking at the Statcast metrics, Isbel actually compares more favorably, especially in terms of his average exit velocity on batted balls and hard-hit rate.
It’s kind of crazy to see Isbel post a higher EV and hard-hit percentage than Taylor, who had 16 more home runs than Isbel last season. Even though Isbel’s barrel rate still remained modest at 5.5%, it was better than bother Kiermaier and Bader, who both have commanded one-year deals worth $10.5 million this offseason.
It’s also interesting to see how their power numbers compare on their respective PLV Power charts. Isbel still doesn’t fare well overall in power, but it’s not as bad as Bader and Kiermaier, two players who are making a combined $21 million in 2024.
Obviously, Taylor stands out the most of the group, as his power hovered around the 90th percentile in expected extra bases added per BBE last year. Then again though, Taylor only had one other year where he hit more than 15 home runs (2017), so it will be interesting to see if Taylor’s power transitions in 2024 (which may explain why he has not signed yet, unlike Kiermaier and Bader).
In terms of plate discipline, Isbel also appears to be the best of the bunch, especially when it comes to making contact.
In addition, Isbel also posted the second-best O-Swing% (and by only 0.1 points) of the group, which shows that Isbel isn’t chasing on pitches out of the zone often. That discipline and ability to make consistent contact should bode well in 2024, especially as he gets more plate appearances under his belt.
On the other hand, Isbel may have been a bit too passive last year.
His zone percentage (which measures pitches in the strike zone) was 44.9% and he posted the lowest swing percentage of the group with a 46.5% mark. Being patient isn’t a bad thing overall, but it can be when hitters are passing on pitches that can be hit hard.
PLV’s Decision Value metric measures that decision-making at the plate, and unfortunately for Isbel, he paled a bit in this category compared to the three veteran outfielders.
Isbel ranked the worst of the group in his runs added per 100 pitches season average. While he did see a positive trend from the 950th pitch to the end of the year, his trend wasn’t as positive as Bader, who was the next worst hitter of this group in this category.
On the other hand, Isbel is the youngest hitter in this group at 26 years old (Bader is 29; Taylor is 32; Kiermaier is 33). So Isbel has time to develop at the plate, especially in 2024.
Additionally, he could not just reach the decision value levels of the three but perhaps surpass them shortly (and at a younger age as well).
Defense Will Be Isbel’s Calling Card in 2024
Isbel’s bat will be a key development to watch in 2024 and beyond by Royals fans.
He has gotten better with his plate discipline since debuting in 2021 when his K rate was 27.7% as a 24-year-old. He also sports underrated batted ball metrics, though it will be intriguing to see if his barrel numbers can improve in 2024, which can give him more value to the bottom of the Royals lineup.
Regardless of his bat, Isbel’s defense should continue to carry him as a regular in centerfield in Kansas City in 2024.
Kiermaier, Taylor, and Bader have all won Gold Glove awards in their career. Isbel has not, but if he can continue to transition his defensive work from 2023 into 2024 and beyond, then the award could be in his future sooner than expected.
Here’s a look at how Isbel compared to the three in major advanced defensive metrics via Fangraphs.
Isbel ranked 2nd in DRS and OAA and 1st in UZR and UZR/150 in 2023. He did rank third in Def (behind Kiermaier and Bader), but overall, Isbel proved that his defense was just as good, if not slightly better in some categories than many in this Gold Glove-caliber group.
Playing centerfield is a demanding job at Kauffman Stadium (which Taylor knows too well). On the other hand, a good centerfielder in Kansas City typically attracts not only appreciation from Royals fans but from awards committees as well after a respective season (which Taylor knows as well).
For the last couple of years though, Royals players have gotten passed over from Gold Glove consideration.
Bobby Witt, Jr. and Maikel Garcia were both surprisingly snubbed in 2023 and Nicky Lopez was robbed in 2021 and 2022. This is despite producing metrics that showcased them as the best fielders in their respective positions.
It’s possible that Isbel, who likely will play in more games in 2024 than he did in 2023, could also be a leader defensively in many categories for this upcoming season and beyond.
Hopefully this time though, Isbel gets the consideration and recognition that Witt, Garcia, and Lopez didn’t.
And if he does make that development, the Royals will have a valuable piece in centerfield that they can depend on for years to come.
Photo Credit: Jamie Squire/GettyImages
Mr. O’B, Why is it that I so often read analysts sayingthey question specific defensive metrics or haveuncertain faith in them as a whole?
Typically it’s due to the metrics being used and how they weight certain categories. Do you weigh more heavily a guy who’s more prone to errors but can save runs with amazing plays? Or do you value a guy who makes all the basic plays but doesn’t give you anything extra? I think that is what makes defensive metrics so hard because for so long a lot of what makes a good defender subjective and a lot of those impressions are being challenged (i.e. Salvy).
[…] Kevin O’Brien at Royals Reporter thinks Kyle Isbel is ready for a breakout season. […]
[…] steps last year to solidify himself as the Royals starting centerfielder. Kevin O’Brien covered how Isbel is ready to break out in 2024. Defensively, Isbel looked more than up to taking on centerfield at The K. He was in the 96th […]