The Royals outfield should have some considerable depth this spring, especially after the addition of free agent right fielder Hunter Renfroe.
Even though the Royals did trade away Edward Olivares to the Pittsburgh Pirates (in a move to clear space for Renfroe on the 40-man roster), there’s solid power, speed, and defense in the Royals’ outfield corps that should make them an improved group in 2024.
When it comes to predicting the starting outfield for the 2024 Kansas City Royals, the picture seems pretty clear, beyond a trade before Spring Training.
Kyle Isbel will likely be penciled in as the Royals’ starting centerfielder on Opening Day, especially since he proved to be one of the better defensive outfielders in baseball a season ago.
In left field, MJ Melendez should be the regular starter, though he will have to improve his splits against left-handed pitchers (58 wRC+; 33.3% K rate) if he truly wants to be an everyday player for the Royals in 2024. In right field, Renfroe and Nelson Velazquez will likely alternate starts between right field and the designated hitter spot throughout the season, with the exception being days when Salvy is the designated hitter. Lastly, Drew Waters will likely rotate among the three outfield positions, and he could get more playing time in 2024 if he can cut down on his massive K rate from a year ago (31.8%).
That leaves only Dairon Blanco remaining.
Unlike the other outfielders, Blanco’s spot on the 26-man active roster is not guaranteed. That is especially true with utility player and top Royals prospect Nick Loftin finishing the 2023 season strong (118 wRC+ and 0.4 fWAR in 68 plate appearances). Unlike Blanco, Loftin can also play the infield, and the Royals may need some more infield depth with newcomer Garrett Hampson the only other serious option who can play infield off the bench.
Nonetheless, Blanco isn’t a name Royals fans should be sleeping on, even as a player who is already 30 years old (and will be 31 in late April) and has only played 74 games at the Major League level in his career.
Blanco Turning Heads in LIDOM (But Questions Remain)
In the Dominican Winter League play (LIDOM) with Estrellas Orientales, Blanco has been a dynamic player who’s been a regular at the top of the lineup.
In 28 games and 117 plate appearances, the Cuban-born outfielder hit .286 with a .692 OPS in the regular season. That included 15 runs scored, 13 RBI, and 18 stolen bases on 20 attempts.
The LIDOM postseason though is where Blanco has really shined this winter for Estrellas. In two games, Blanco leads the squad in not only hits (6) but home runs as well (2), including this two-run bomb he hit last night against Tigres del Licey.
Blanco has long been known for his speed in the Royals system as a lower-tier prospect.
He stole 45 bases in 107 games with the Storm Chasers in 2022 and in 49 games in Omaha last year, he stole 47 bases. The two primary issues that kept Blanco from being considered a more serious prospect in the Royals system were his age and his inconsistent hitting at various levels in the Minor Leagues.
However, over the past two years in Omaha, Blanco has produced solid offensive campaigns. He hit .301 with a .853 OPS in 2022 and .347 with a .895 OPS in 2023 with the Storm Chasers. Therefore, there’s not a lot for Blanco to prove in Triple-A in 2024, which may make this upcoming Cactus League campaign a crucial one for his future with the Royals.
While Blanco’s LIDOM campaign has been positive for the most part, there are still some small blemishes that may be worth examining (even in a small sample).
He still strikes out a bit too much, doesn’t walk enough, and his power hasn’t developed as much as hoped this winter. Blanco is producing a 0.33 BB/K ratio, which includes 24 strikeouts in 117 plate appearances. Furthermore, his slugging is only .352, which is a big reason why his OPS is under .700 with Estrellas.
While Blanco will never be a hitter known for home runs, his speed should make him more likely to collect doubles and triples when he hits balls into the gaps. Unfortunately, those batted balls in the gaps didn’t result in enough extra-base hits during the LIDOM regular season (5 doubles and 1 triple), though that trend has begun to flip through two postseason contests.
Hence, Royals fans have to ask the question: Can Blanco hit enough to keep a spot on the Royals roster as a platoon or fourth outfielder in 2024?
Contact An Issue, But Power Growing and Plate Decisions Remain Solid
The Royals certainly have outfielders who can provide a variety of skills and production, both defensively and offensively. That said, when it comes to determining which ones will get more playing time, contact ability will likely come into play.
Here’s a look at the plate discipline metrics of Royals outfielders who are expected to compete for playing time. I organized the group by Z-Contact%, which measures contact on pitches thrown in the strike zone.
For comparison, the league average Z-Contact% in 2023 was 85.4%. Only two Royals hitters produced a Z-Contact% above league average last year (Isbel and Renfroe).
On the other hand, Blanco finished only slightly below the league average in this category with an 83.5% mark. Furthermore, his Z-Contact% was also 1.6% better than Waters’ and 6.7% better than Melendez’s.
When looking at his contact ability chart via PLV, Blanco remained below the league average for most of the year. On the flip side though, his trend line showed little to no discrepancies, which demonstrated he was at least consistent in this category.
In terms of power, Blanco lacks behind his fellow Royals outfielders considerably, especially when looking at their Statcast batted ball data. His 86.7 MPH average exit velocity on batted balls was the second-worst mark for Royals 2024 outfield candidates, ahead of only Hampson by 0.1 MPH.
Even though the exit velocity and hard-hit numbers don’t look good for Blanco from a season ago, his 6.5% barrel rate was actually better than not just Hampson, but Renfroe and Isbel as well. Additionally, he also saw some positive trends in his sweet-spot percentage (a batted-ball event with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees) as he got more plate appearances at the Major League level.
A hitter’s sweet-spot percentage is important because the more a hitter launches balls in that “sweet-spot” angle range, the more likely they will improve their slugging and power outcomes. That proved to be the case for Blanco a season ago as the positive trend in sweet-spot percentage also correlated with his positive trend in expected slugging.
As stated before, I do not expect Blanco to be a double-digit HR hitter, even with similar or more at-bats compared to what he received in 2023.
On the other hand, his power and budding launch angle skills show a hitter who could find batted balls consistently in Kauffman Stadium’s spacious outfield gaps (Kauffman is the fourth-most triples-friendly park in baseball according to Statcast park factors). Further improvements in those two areas by Blanco will lead to more extra-base hits and more runs, which is a win not just for Blanco’s outlook at the Major League level, but also the Royals’ chances of improving upon their 56-win total last season.
Blanco needs to continue to take advantage of pitches in areas where he can do damage, which appears to be in zones 2 (middle-high) and 5 (middle-middle), according to his xSLG zone chart.
That kind of ability to do damage on mistakes from pitchers is an encouraging development, especially for a guy whose best-case scenario is being a semi-regular outfielder.
Now, does Blanco have the plate discipline to avoid chasing or swinging early in counts in non-ideal zones?
His decision value rolling PLV chart seems to think he does have that ability. His trend line was above the league average for most of the year and actually was above the 90th percentile from the 350th pitch to the end of the season.
Additionally, Blanco’s O-Swing% of 31.8% was the third-best mark of projected Royals outfield candidates. Only Melendez (29.8%) and Hampson (29.1%) produced better marks.
The Royals definitely need that kind of plate patience and discipline, especially at the bottom of the order, where Blanco hit regularly (he had 89 plate appearances in the nine-hole).
How Can the Royals Utilize Blanco (And What’s His Long-Term Future)?
The nice thing about Blanco is that he can play all three outfield positions, including center field, which is a tall task for any professional outfielder.
In terms of OAA and DRS, Isbel led all Royals outfielders last season by a considerable margin. However, Blanco actually rated better than Isbel in UZR (6.8 to Isbel’s 5.0). That makes the idea of Blanco playing center field on days when Isbel needs a day off a more palatable decision than perhaps putting Waters out there (whose UZR is 1.4).
Thus, Matt Quatraro utilizing him in a rotation where Blanco can fill in at center or left field, especially against left-handed starting pitchers, could be a strategy that would best utilize Blanco’s skills and ability. It’s possible that Blanco could be a player who could play in 100 games and get maybe 250-300 plate appearances in 2024, which could help him surpass the 1.1 fWAR he produced in 69 games and 138 plate appearances last year.
Then again though, if the Royals are seeing him succeed in such a role, and they are not in the AL Central playoff hunt, would they deal him at the Deadline for a team that could benefit from such a player off the bench?
That seems likely. Can you imagine the intensity Blanco would bring to a team in a playoff race?
As exciting a player as Blanco is (his sprint speed ranked in the 100th percentile according to Statcast), he seems a bit of a superfluous asset on a Kansas City roster that is still going through the rebuilding process. With a farm system that needs restocking any and everywhere this season, flipping Blanco for a prospect package of some sort by the August deadline could be the right plan, especially if Blanco is breaking out like he did down the stretch in 2023.
Royals fans should continue to enjoy Blanco, who should find a role in a Royals outfield that needs a boost offensively and defensively in 2024.
However, don’t expect Blanco to be on this Royals roster beyond 2024…
Which is good not just for Blanco, but the Royals long-term as well.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann
Mr. O’B, Wow. You seem to have really outdone yourselfwith this analysis. Is it possible that the new base-stealing rules willplay a significant factor in the overall outfield decision-making process?
Also, is Drew Waters’ arm helping to keep himin the mix, and what steps are being taken tohelp him lower that, indeed, “massive” K-rate? Thanks for your time and efforts, as always.
I think that plays a part in it. I also think that Q favors speed on the roster. He led all managers last year in SBA% of 2nd base, and I think Blanco fits into that plan really well, whether it’s off the bench or as a 4th outfielder.
I think Waters offers a lot of different skill sets, arm bring one. I do believe he will be utilized on the Opening Day roster, with him and Blanco as the primary outfielders (I see Hampson primarily utilized in the infield now). When it comes to improving his K rate, I do think he really needs more at-bats at the MLB level which he didn’t get last year due to his oblique injury. This is definitely a make or break year for him for I can see the Royals moving on if he doesn’t show growth at the MLB level this season.
[…] group, but he has struggled with strikeouts in his first two years in the Majors. As for Blanco, he’s shown to be a great addition to this Royals team, but he may be better utilized as a 4th outfielder than an everyday […]