Three Developments to Watch From the Royals at the Winter Meetings

The MLB Winter Meetings begin today and it is expected that the moves will heat up once all the MLB front executives converge in Nashville.

While the Royals have made a couple of minor acquisitions with the Atlanta Braves (acquiring reliever Nick Anderson and starter Kyle Wright) and signed utility player Garrett Hampson to a one-year, $2 million deal, they haven’t made a “major” splash yet that has sparked a Royals fanbase that is a bit apathetic or pessimistic following a 106-loss season.

Hopefully, that will change after this week when many players could be on the move.

Royals fans are currently crossing their fingers that JJ Picollo and the Royals front office can be part of those “transactions” over the next few days which could help provide hope that better days are ahead for Kansas City in 2024 and beyond.

In this post, I will highlight three possible developments this week that could give Royals fans an idea of what this overall offseason may look like in preparation for next season.

Will the Royals Sign Any Free Agents of Note (Or Extend Any Current Players)?

After signing Hampson, it appears that Picollo is intent on boosting the Royals pitching staff in free agency, as chronicled by MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers in her most recent newsletter post.

Here’s what Rogers wrote about in her article following the Hampson deal that demonstrates that the Royals’ “pursuit” of pitching upgrades this offseason, especially in the rotation, is not just rumor or theory.

…Per sources, the Royals have been in on a few pitchers who have signed already with other teams and Kansas City remains in touch with several on the market who fit its profile.

“[The pitching market is] something we’re involved with,” Picollo said. “How quickly those dominoes start to fall — we’ve seen a few sign, but there’s still a lot out there. Addressing the pitching is at the top of our list.”

“Royals sign speedy utilityman Hampson to 1-year deal” by Anne Rogers; MLB.com

While it’s unlikely that the Royals were in talks with Aaron Nola, who re-signed with the Phillies, it isn’t out of the question to think that the Royals may have been in talks with Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, and Lance Lynn before they eventually signed with the Tigers and Cardinals, respectively.

An issue with free agency is that it’s easy for Royals fans to see where other pitchers sign, in addition to seeing their dollar amounts, and think “Why didn’t the Royals do that?”

Well, remember, what makes the free agency process a difficult path to rebuilding is that teams can offer the money, but it’s up to the players to agree. The Royals may have offered Maeda (who I thought could be a good target) just as much, maybe more money than the Tigers. That being said, it’s possible that Maeda preferred the team’s progression, the organization, and the city of Detroit much more than the Royals and Kansas City.

It’s easy to say “Just sign big free agents like Texas did with Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, and Jacob deGrom!” However, Kansas City isn’t quite the national market or scene like other bigger cities, and that has an effect on free agents, whether Royals fans like that or not.

Honestly, the way to keep star players in Kansas City (in any sport really) is to either trade for them (more on that later) or draft and extend them.

The Brewers, located in Milwaukee, a similar market to Kansas City, opted to go that route as early as possible, as they signed top prospect Jackson Chourio to an $82-million extension before he’s ever played an MLB game.

The Brewers have learned the hard way about waiting too long to sign a “star” player, even with years of control remaining.

Corbin Burnes and William Adames, who seemed to be part of the Brewers’ playoff core a couple of years ago, are on the trade block and may not be in Milwaukee on Opening Day. In addition, Brandon Woodruff, a two-time All-Star, was non-tendered after suffering an injury this past season that should sideline him for most, if not all, of 2024.

The Royals are hoping that the same thing doesn’t happen with Bobby Witt, Jr., who’s coming off a career season in which he not only posted a 5.7 fWAR but also earned All-MLB votes at shortstop.

Granted, any kind of extension for Witt would likely be record-setting (as it should), but it may be the only way to have a superstar in Kansas City for any lengthy time.

It appears that Witt and the Royals are interested in a deal, though it’s hard to gauge how much progress has been made this offseason between both parties.

A Witt extension won’t come cheap nor easily (Witt holds most of the leverage here due to the Royals’ shallow farm system).

However, if the Royals can agree to some kind of long-term extension with Witt, that would be better and give more hope for Royals fans about the future of the organization than simply signing a mediocre free-agent pitcher who’s probably on the decline, much like Mike Minor and Jordan Lyles.

Will the Royals Make a Splashy Trade?

Free agency may not exactly be the route for the Royals to get better in 2024, even if they have a desire to get better and improve upon their 56-106 campaign from a season ago. The Royals just aren’t an attractive destination right now for free agents, especially starting pitchers.

Thus, it may be more feasible for the Royals to get better through the trade market.

The Royals improved their chances during the first Dayton Moore rebuild by trading away Zack Greinke in 2010 for a slew of Brewers prospects and trading for James Shields and Wade Davis from Tampa Bay in exchange for a cadre of Royals prospects (including top prospect Wil Myers). Could the Royals do something similar, especially with some intriguing players supposedly available?

It’s possible that starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow, outfielder Randy Arozarena, and corner infielder Isaac Paredes could be reunited with manager Matt Quatraro and bench coach Paul Hoover, as all three Rays players have been mentioned as candidates who are being pushed in trade talks this offseason by the Rays.

Then again though, the Royals aren’t exactly in a great position when it comes to taking advantage of the trade market. There aren’t any Top-100 prospects currently in the Royals system (though catcher Ramon Ramirez could be one at some point in 2024 if he continues his progression). Thus, if the Royals want to trade anyone this offseason, it will have to come from their MLB roster.

That means that it’s possible that the Royals’ 2024 roster may not include Salvador Perez, who’s been tied to the Marlins and White Sox organizations previously, MJ Melendez, who still has intriguing potential, or Maikel Garcia, who had a promising rookie season and is off to another scorching start in the Venezuelan Winter League.

Will the Royals deal the longtime “face” of their franchise (and last remaining tie to their 2014 and 2015 teams)? Will they pass on the potential of Melendez or Garcia for a more proven player(s)?

Those questions could be answered by the conclusion of the Winter Meetings.

Will the Royals Select Someone in the Rule 5 Draft?

The Rule 5 Draft will take place on December 6th, and it usually is the final event of the Winter Meetings. The Royals have had success in the Rule 5 previously, as Brad Keller is an example of the Royals finding a valuable piece in the winter draft.

That being said, Picollo and the Royals haven’t been active participants in the Rule 5 since drafting Stephen Woods Jr. in 2019.

While a Rule 5 pick has to stay on the active roster for the entire season (or they will have to be returned to their original team), it can be a cheap way for teams to find “undervalued” talent. Last year, the Oakland A’s selected Ryan Noda, who was blocked in the Dodgers organization, and he ended up producing a 2.0 fWAR season.

Could the Royals find their own version of Noda in next week’s draft?

Perhaps, but for that to happen, the Royals will have to clear roster space. The Royals’ 40-man roster is currently full after the Hampson deal and teams can only select players in the Rule 5 Draft if they have spots available on the 40-man roster.

For the Royals to select someone, they will need to make a trade or DFA someone before Thursday.

I do believe the Rule 5 Draft is a great way for rebuilding teams to find under-the-radar talent for cheap. However, while I would like to see Picollo and the Royals add someone next week through this method, I do think sometimes this draft can be overblown in terms of impact.

Since Keller, the Royals have also selected Woods as well as pitchers Burch Smith and Sam McWilliams. Smith was pretty awful in his stint with the Royals in 2018 after being drafted, and McWilliams ended up not making the team and being traded back to Tampa Bay in 2019.

The bottom line is that Rule 5 picks are major wild cards, with a shaky history of success. Honestly, it’s not like free agency or trade is a worse strategy, especially since there isn’t the pressure to keep a player on a roster a whole season due to the Rule 5 guidelines.

Would trade or free agency be more expensive in terms of capital or dollar amount? Absolutely.

That being said, the Royals would get a more proven commodity, which may be what the organization really needs right now. There are plenty of “wild cards” already in their farm system.

But then again, if Picollo does choose to clear a spot for a Rule 5 Draft selection, that wouldn’t be the worst thing either.

I guess Royals fans will figure out what direction Picollo will want to go by Thursday…

Unfortunately for Royals fans banking on 1-2 selection in the draft, Picollo’s Rule 5 Draft history doesn’t bode well for that outcome.

Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images

3 thoughts on “Three Developments to Watch From the Royals at the Winter Meetings”

  3. […] The Winter Meetings took place this past week and for the most part, it was a tame one for the Royals, though that could be said for most teams as well (Shohei Ohtani remains a free agent after all). After signing Garrett Hampson at the end of November, Picollo and the Royals front office focused on acquiring pitching this week through minor league free agency and the Rule 5 Draft. […]

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