Maikel Garcia was one of the more promising Royals rookie stories in 2023, especially when it came to his glove and ability on the basepaths.

In his first full season in the Majors (he only played in nine games in 2022, mostly due to the Royals’ COVID vaccine issues a season ago), his defense at third base ranked in the 98th percentile in Outs Above Average, according to Savant. In addition, he stole 23 bases on 30 attempts, which was the third-highest number on the squad (behind only Bobby Witt, Jr. and Dairon Blanco).

As a result, Garcia produced a 1.9 fWAR in 123 games, a pretty solid mark for a pretty unheralded prospect prior to last year.

However, his performance at the plate garnered mixed enthusiasm from Royals fans and critics, even for a team that was 56-106 in 2023.

In 515 plate appearances, Garcia slashed .272/.323/.358 with a .681 OPS, .299 wOBA, and 84 wRC+, according to Fangraphs. While the average was decent, his power didn’t impress, and that’s putting it lightly. His ISO was .086 a year ago, which was the 7th-lowest mark of Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances, according to Fangraphs.

If that wasn’t enough, he also only posted a 0.33 BB/K ratio, which was 0.05 points below the league average (though surprisingly it was the 8th-highest mark for Royals hitters last year).

Granted, Garcia is only 23 years old and will turn 24 next March, so he’s relatively young (and still developing into his six-foot, 145-pound frame). Then again, there are concerns that Garcia may not be more than Nicky Lopez, a slick-fielding infielder who failed to develop much power or a consistent bat in his tenure with the Royals.

Looking at the surface-level numbers, especially in the power department, it’s easy to see why Royals fans may come to that “Nicky Lopez 2.0”. When diving deeper into his profile and metrics from 2023 though, Garcia could perhaps turn into another hitter who started off slow in the power department and ended up being an All-Star as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays this season.

This is certainly an outlook that Royals fans may excite Royals fans, even if it may take a couple of years to fully come to fruition.

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Garcia’s Promising Plate Discipline and Batted Ball Ability

While the BB/K ratio and 7.4% walk rate aren’t eye-popping by any means, many of Garcia’s other plate discipline metrics portray a more positive picture.

For starters, Garcia’s 24.4% O-Swing% was the lowest mark in that category of Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances, according to Fangraphs. In addition, his 7.7% swinging-strike rate was the second-best mark in that category from that same sample of Royals hitters. The only Royals hitter with a better swinging-strike rate was Vinnie Pasquantino, who sported a 7.4% mark prior to going down for the season to injury.

Furthermore, the decision value PLV data also paints Garcia in a positive light, as Royals fans can see in the PLV rolling chart data below.

Garcia’s season average in runs added per 100 pitches was around the 80th percentile for the season and he regularly was around the 90th percentile in that category as well. That shows that Garcia was making sound swing decisions at the plate in his rookie year, and was having a positive impact overall, even if the wOBA and wRC+ didn’t quite show that.

Additionally, Garcia was able to make consistent contact at the plate as a 23-year-old rookie. His 82% contact rate was the second-highest mark on the team of Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances, and this is despite sporting a 42.9% swing rate, the lowest swing rate on the team.

Here’s a look at how Garcia’s contact PLV rolling chart from a season ago fared:

Granted, Garcia did see a dip in his contact frequency above expected from his 500th swing, when he ranked in the 90th percentile, to his 700th swing, when he ranked slightly below the MLB average. However, he was able to rebound after that 700th-swing mark and ended up producing a season average in contact frequency above expected which ranked just above the 75th percentile.

What’s most interesting about Garcia’s contact ability though wasn’t just the frequency of contact, but the quality of his batted balls as well, despite his diminutive stature.

Here’s a look at Garcia’s rolling hard-hit rate over the course of the 2023 season, according to Savant:

See that red line? That’s the MLB average.

As Royals fans can see, Garcia’s rolling hard-hit rate stayed well above the league average for the entire season, which is impressive, especially for a player who hit only four home runs for the year.

In fact, Garcia led all Royals hitters in hard-hit rate, which can be seen in the Fangraphs table below:

For context, Garcia produced a higher hard-hit rate than MJ Melendez (49.6%), Nelson Velazquez (47.3%), and Bobby Witt, Jr. (45.4%), who combined for 60 home runs among the three of them last year.

While I will look into later about Garcia’s natural power not necessarily translating into productive power in 2023, his hard-hit rates show that there is a hitting foundation in place that could produce more power results in the future once he gets more at-bats and gains strength over time.

And that could begin coming to fruition as soon as next year with the right offseason workout plan for Garcia, which I imagine is a priority for JJ Picollo, Matt Quatraro, and the entire Royals management and coaching staff.

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Issues With Launch Angle (And Connection to Power)

As I mentioned earlier, Garcia has one of the worst ISO marks of any regular Royals player a season ago. If that wasn’t enough, his PLV power rolling chart also didn’t showcase a lot of promise either, which can be seen below.

Garcia tailed at the end of the season, as his expected extra bases added per batted ball event (BBE) hovered below the 25th percentile after the 200th BBE mark. That said, it wasn’t like a sudden decline from an above-average or even average earlier mark.

As Royals fans can see in the rolling chart above, getting extra-base hits was a challenge for Garcia overall in 2023.

In addition, Garcia also only produced a 3.9% barrel rate, which ranked 17th of Royals hitters with 50 or more plate appearances. The lack of extra bases garnered on hits, and the lackluster barrel rate, despite the high hard-hit rates shows that while Garcia could hit the ball with elite authority, putting it consistently in the air was a different story.

Garcia’s average launch angle in 2023 was 6.1 degrees, which was nearly six degrees lower than the league average. Here’s a look at Garcia’s rolling average launch angle chart from a season ago, and notice that elevating the ball was a struggle for him.

There were times last year when Garcia would elevate the ball properly, or at least around league average. Based on his rolling chart, that was at the beginning of the year, and around the 250 to 300 batted ball mark.

In addition, he also showed that potential in this home run against Detroit’s Reese Olson, which he hit 411 feet at Comerica Park, one of the more spacious parks in baseball.

Unfortunately, Garcia wasn’t able to launch the ball consistently in his rookie year.

As a result, he was only able to produce an xSLG of .387 and an xWOBA of .318 for the season. While those numbers were better than what he actually produced in those categories (.364 SLG; .299 wOBA), it’s lower than what it should be for a hitter with such elite batted-ball exit velocity.

Garcia’s spray chart also demonstrates that while he did garner a lot of hard-hit base hits, they didn’t have tremendous distance behind them. That limited his power and ability to garner extra bases on those batted balls.

If Garcia wants to see his ISO and overall wOBA grow in 2024, he’s going to need to be able to launch the ball more, and in those gaps preferably. He didn’t do that enough in 2023 (especially to left-center) and that’s why his overall power numbers were pretty paltry.

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Garcia and Yandy Diaz As A Comparison

One player that I think Garcia compares favorably to is Yandy Diaz, the Rays’ slugging first and third baseman who made his first All-Star team in 2023.

At first glance, it’s hard to imagine Garcia and Diaz having a lot in common. After all, Diaz slashed .330/.410/.522, hit 22 home runs, and produced a 164 wRC+ in 600 plate appearances with the Rays last year.

That said, let’s look at Diaz’s first season in the Majors (when he was 25 and in the Guardians organization as a mid-tier prospect) and compare it with Garcia’s (which also includes the nine games from 2022) via Fangraphs.

Even though Garcia had more plate appearances, Diaz still produced a lower ISO (.064) and wRC+ (84). Diaz did walk more and struck out less, which explains why Diaz had a higher wOBA than Garcia.

What’s most interesting though, when comparing Diaz and Garcia’s Statcast metrics, is that they were quite similar in nearly every category.

Surprisingly, Garcia actually posted a better barrel rate and average launch angle as a rookie than Diaz did in his first season in the Majors with Cleveland.

While that doesn’t mean that Garcia will turn into a 22-HR All-Star, it does give some hope to Royals fans that Garcia still has some ability to grow into his power, much like Diaz did after the 2015 season.

Furthermore, it was also interesting to compare Diaz’s 2023 Decision Value PLV rolling chart to Garcia’s and see the difference.

Diaz’s runs added per 100 pitches mark is obviously better than Garcia’s. Then again though, Diaz is 32 years old and just finished his seventh season at the Major League level. Garcia just finished his first season, and he was just roughly 0.3 runs added behind Diaz in terms of decision value.

Furthermore, Diaz’s average launch angle of 5.7 degrees actually lagged behind Garcia’s this season. That shows that Garcia doesn’t need to lift the ball more by a huge margin, but just slightly enough to make the most of his high exit-velocity batted-ball skills.

It’s easy to just look at ISO and slugging and think that Garcia will be another Nicky.

On the other hand, when looking at batted-ball quality, launch angle, and decision value, Garcia actually aligns more with Diaz, which is encouraging for a player that the Royals hope could be a longtime teammate on the left side of the infield with Witt.

If Garcia can start hitting those gaps more frequently in 2024, not only will the extra-base hits pile up (and consequently ISO and SLG percentages rise), but the comparisons to Diaz will also become louder and more legitimate.

Photo Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports