When it comes to watching this postseason as a Royals fan, two teams are easy to gravitate to and root for, albeit for different reasons.

The first team is the Texas Rangers, who are up 2-0 against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros after winning both games in Houston. The Rangers’ front office is led by Chris Young, a former Royals postseason hero, and Dayton Moore is a special advisor, enjoying the postseason after being let go by the Royals at the end of last season.

Suppose that isn’t “Kansas City” enough. In that case, the Rangers bullpen is also boosted by Aroldis Chapman, who was traded midseason for pitcher Cole Ragans and outfielder Roni Cabrera (in a deal that has seemingly been good for both sides).

It is easy for Royals fans to be jealous of the Rangers, especially with Young in charge and Texas going from a bottom-feeder in the AL West (they went 60-102 in 2021) to on the verge of an AL Pennant in just a couple of seasons. That said, the Rangers also have spent considerably on free agency over the past couple of years, and they are projected to have the 6th-highest payroll in baseball in 2024 (as their roster is currently constructed), according to Cot’s Contracts.

Royals fans would be justified to want John Sherman to spend a little more on the roster this offseason, especially after last year’s disastrous 56-106 season.

However, the Royals are projected to have the fourth-lowest payroll in baseball in 2024. Even if they spend a little bit more in free agency this winter, the gap between Texas and Kansas City will still be quite large by Opening Day in 2024.

Instead of looking at Texas as a club for the Royals to “aspire” to, Royals fans should look further west to the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are in the NLCS after sweeping the heavily favored Dodgers in the previous round.

Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks aren’t far removed from a brutal season.

Arizona lost 110 games in 2021, four more than the Royals lost this season. In contrast to Texas though, the Diamondbacks have built this current group through the draft, international signings, shrewd trades, and inexpensive free agents who have brought valuable intangibles to this young group. For context, the Diamondbacks’ expected payroll for 2024 will be $83.4 million, which is only $16.9 million more than the Royals’ projected payroll.

That is a model that is not only realistic for the Royals to emulate, but also could be a recipe for sustained success, something that has been more common in Arizona (four winning seasons since 2017) than in Kansas City (zero in that same timespan).

Let’s take a look at how the Royals and Diamondbacks are similar, and what further steps JJ Picollo and the Royals front office could take this offseason to help Kansas City be more like this young and exciting NL West club in 2024 and beyond.

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The Diamondbacks’ and Royals’ Rosters Are Both Led By Promising Young Talent

When looking at the Royals and the Diamondbacks from this past season, it’s uncanny how closely aligned the Royals and Diamondbacks are, especially at certain positions.

For starters, the Royals had the youngest average age of hitters, while the Diamondbacks had the ninth-youngest group, according to Baseball Reference. Furthermore, when looking at key positions and players that they are building around, the Royals and Diamondbacks share a lot of similarities.

The Diamondbacks’ “franchise player” appears to be Corbin Carroll, a 2019 first-round pick who hit 25 home runs, stole 54 bases, and produced a 6.0 fWAR campaign this year. The Royals are led by Bobby Witt, Jr., another 2019 first-round pick who hit 30 home runs, stole 49 bases, and produced a 5.7 fWAR season. Both players are 23 years old, though Carroll did sign a long-term extension this past offseason, something the Royals are hoping to accomplish this year with Witt.

It’s not just Carroll and Witt though where the Diamondbacks and Royals are similar on a hitter end.

Arizona’s Geraldo Perdomo and Kansas City’s Maikel Garcia are both sure-handed defenders with speed on the basepaths who showed that they could both hit for average this year. Their power still needs some development, as they both posted sub-.400 slugging percentages in 2023. However, Garcia has a leg up on Perdomo in this category due to his advantage in hard-hit rate (Garcia had a 50.6% hard-hit rate while Perdomo had a 19.2% hard-hit rate).

Arizona’s Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. and Kansas City’s Edward Olivares are corner outfielders who produced similar OPS+ numbers (Gurriel’s was 108; Olivares’ was 109) in 2023 but also possessed poor defensive reputations (though Gurriel was much better in 2023 than in years past). Royals fans could lump Nelson Velazquez into this comparison as well, especially since Velazquez’s home run total (17) is closer to Gurriel (24) than Olivares (12).

Lastly, Arizona’s Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy seem to mirror Kansas City’s Kyle Isbel and Drew Waters in the sense that all four young outfielders are known for their baserunning and defense but still have a lot of work to do on the hitting end. All four posted OPS numbers below .700 this year, and whether they become regulars or simply fourth-outfielder types long-term depends on how their bats progress in 2024.

On a pitching end, the Diamondbacks are a little ahead of the game, though Diamondbacks’ average pitching age was slightly younger (28.5) than Kansas City’s (29.1; though having a 39-year-old Zack Greinke certainly inflates things).

Arizona has a bonafide “ace” in Zac Gallen, a good starter in Merrill Kelly, and a couple of promising arms in Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt (though their numbers weren’t great). Kansas City on the other hand has a “possible” ace in Cole Ragans, a used-to-be good starter in Brady Singer, and a few promising, though flawed arms in Daniel Lynch, Angel Zerpa, and Alec Marsh.

Both bullpens weren’t great in 2023, though Arizona was certainly boosted by the arrival of Paul Sewald from Seattle, who helped make this group one that ranked 18th in ERA. The Royals on the other hand ranked 29th in reliever ERA and unlike the Diamondbacks who got better at the Deadline, they got worse after Chapman and Scott Barlow were traded away.

Therefore, on a pitching end, the Royals and Diamondbacks have less in common.

That being said, additions and changes this offseason by the Royals could perhaps close that gap in 2024, which should make the Royals more like the Diamondbacks, especially since they are more similar on the hitting end.

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Both Are Solid Defensive and Baserunning Teams

We all know that home runs and strikeouts have been the biggest stories this postseason, especially when it comes to leveraging those two areas to succeed in a short series. In order to MAKE the postseason though, a team needs to be solid in a variety of areas over the course of 162 games.

Arizona has been primarily successful this year due to their solid defense (especially in the outfield) and their effective baserunning. Mike Hazen, the Diamondbacks’ GM, has made speed and defense a priority when acquiring talent, especially in the draft, and it has paid off in 2023.

Surprisingly, the Royals aren’t far behind the Diamondbacks metrically in both defensive and baserunning metrics, via Savant.

Here’s a look at the Team Outs Above Average rankings from this past season.

The Royals were only two outs and three runs behind the Diamondbacks this year in terms of OAA and Runs Prevented, respectively. That is a promising development for a rebuilding Royals team that was quite questionable defensively a season ago.

Granted, the Diamondbacks and Royals excel in different areas of defense, as Arizona is stronger in their outfield defense while Kansas City is much better in the infield. Nonetheless, the Royals showed this year that they are of the same caliber of defense overall as the Diamondbacks, which is a nice building block for 2024 and beyond.

Now let’s take a look at the team baserunning metrics.

Once again, the Royals are just behind the Diamondbacks in runner runs as they rank 4th and 3rd, respectively. That shows that both teams have strong baserunners beyond just their “stars” on the basepaths (Carroll for Arizona; Witt for Kansas City), and their aggressive approach actually attributed to extra runs over the course of last season.

With the coaching staff expected to be fully back (according to Picollo at his end-of-the-year press conference), Royals fans should expect the baserunning to keep pace with the Diamondbacks in 2024, as long as Kansas City stays healthy.

The Royals’ pitching and hitting have a long way to go in terms of catching up with the Diamondbacks. Nonetheless, it’s nice to see the Royals around the same level in two important areas of the game.

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Both Farm Systems Have Been Hurt by Graduation (Though Royals More So)

A couple of seasons ago (i.e. going into 2022), both the Royals and Diamondbacks had two of the most promising farm systems in baseball. Now, they have seen sharp regressions in their rankings, mostly due to many of their promising prospects “graduating” to the Major League level.

That’s not a bad thing. It’s good to witness a club promote their top prospects to the Major League level and see those promising young players experience success.

On the other hand, it’s important for a system to have enough prospect depth to absorb those graduations.

Both the Diamondbacks and Royals have taken steps back as a system this year though Arizona is in much healthier shape. Bleacher Report ranked the Royals 29th and the Diamondbacks 26th in their end-of-the-year farm system rankings in September. So in the eyes of B/R, there isn’t much difference in the prospect capital between the two clubs.

On the other hand, MLB.com sees it much differently. The Diamondbacks ranked 12th overall in MLB.com’s mid-season rankings (which typically are released after the Draft). The Royals? They still ranked 29th.

Both the Diamondbacks and Royals are leaning on the development of young talent drafted out of high school. Much like the Royals, Arizona has gotten mixed results so far from that prospect group this year in the Minors, especially from Druw Jones who only hit .238 with a .680 OPS between rookie and Low-A ball in 2023.

In order for Kansas City’s system to get a boost in 2024, they will need to see progress from 2023 first-round pick Blake Mitchell and 2022 first-round pick Gavin Cross, much like Arizona needs to see positive growth from Jones and Jordan Lawlar, who was impressive in Triple-A ball but only hit .129 at the MLB level.

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Arizona Has Been Willing to Make the “Big Trade” (Can Kansas City Do the Same?)

In terms of development, I think Kansas City isn’t that far off from Arizona.

The Diamondbacks are an organization that balances scouting and analytics quite well. That said, they tend to lean more toward the traditional scouting side compared to other successful organizations like Tampa Bay, Baltimore, and Houston. Picollo is trying to do something similar in Kansas City, though the Royals were much further behind in the analytics area than the Diamondbacks were when Hazen took over (and that has taken priority in year one for Picollo).

One major difference between the Diamondbacks and Royals though is that the Diamondbacks have cashed in on top talent for prospect hauls when the time was right.

Back in 2016, Arizona acquired Ketel Marte and Taijuan Walker (at the time) in a deal that sent Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura to Seattle. They traded Paul Goldschmidt to St. Louis in 2018 for Carson Kelly, Luke Weaver, and what ended up being a 2019 competitive balance round B pick. The Diamondbacks also traded Jazz Chisholm, Jr. for Zac Gallen in a 2019 trade at the Deadline.

Finally, this last offseason, their biggest trade involved them acquiring Gabriel Moreno and Gurriel from Toronto in exchange for Daulton Varsho. Considering Varsho’s offensive struggles in 2023 and the production from Moreno and Gurriel, it’s safe to say that Arizona won that deal.

The Diamondbacks have supplemented their farm system over the years and this playoff core with shrewd trades of players whose futures in Arizona seemed up. Kansas City failed to do that after their 2013 to 2017 run and it ended up costing Moore his job as team president.

If Picollo wants to avoid Moore’s fate, he needs to be active in the trade market like Hazen. Even if it doesn’t always produce a “winning trade” (the Goldschmidt deal doesn’t look good in retrospect, though Weaver was eventually turned into Emmanuel Rivera), that kind of activity can eventually bring in players who can contribute and have an impact.

Let’s see if Picollo will follow that “Hazen Lead” this offseason and make that trade of Salvy, which could impact the organization like the Goldschmidt deal in Arizona nearly five years ago.

Photo Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA Today Sports