We’re still a long way away from the “official” start of the “hot stove” season. Free agents can’t technically sign until five days after the World Series, so baseball fans have to wait around a month before the hot stove sweepstakes begin.
That said, Royals fans, who are sitting through an eighth-straight postseason that doesn’t include the Royals, already have ideas of who JJ Picollo and the Royals front office might target this offseason to help make this squad better in 2024.
While I will start looking at the bigger targets as we get closer to the official start of free agency, I wanted to look at Minor League free agents who have already hit the market, as reported by the excellent Twitter (or X) account MiLB Transactions. Since the conclusion of the MLB regular season, MiLB Transactions has been reporting Minor League players who have been released or elected free agency.
Safe to say, some interesting names have popped up on their feed, including some who could fit into the Royals’ current needs without costing a whole lot in free agency.
In this post, I am going to look at five Minor League free agents who could earn possible invites to Spring camp in Surprise and could provide some value to the Royals in 2024, even if it may not be for a long period.
Keston Hiura, 1B/UT
It doesn’t seem that long ago that Hiura was one of the top prospects in the game and coming on strong to the MLB stage as a 22-year-old rookie with the Brewers.
Back in 2019, in an 84-game sample, Hiura produced 139 wRC+ and 2.4 fWAR in 348 plate appearances. That included 19 home runs, 49 RBI, 9 stolen bases, and a .303 batting average. His overall numbers made him one of the top offensive rookies that season (even though he did not place in the NL Rookie of the Year voting).
Granted, there were some concerns at the time.
He struck out 30.7% of the time and his average was fueled by a .402 BABIP, which felt unsustainable in the long term. Additionally, his defense at second base was highly questionable, as he led all second basemen in errors that season and his defense was 3.9 runs below average, according to Fangraphs.
Despite these issues, many Brewers fans felt that Hiura would only get better as he garnered more at-bats and experience in the field. Unfortunately, things went south after his promising rookie season in 2019.
He did hit 13 home runs in 59 games and 246 plate appearances during the COVID-shortened season of 2020. However, his average plummeted to .212 and his wRC+ also fell to 88. Things were even worse in 2021, as he only played 61 games, and hit .168 with a 53 wRC+ in 197 plate appearances.
Things got better in 2022, as he did increase his wRC+ to 115, hit 14 home runs, and posted an ISO of .222, his highest ISO since his rookie season. On the other hand, he still only hit .226 and struck out a whopping 40.7%, a career-high, which were both alarming marks, despite his power.
Due to his strikeout and defensive issues, he was eventually phased out by the Brewers and designated for assignment after Spring Training last year. Even though he remained in the Brewers organization a year ago, he didn’t advance beyond Triple-A ball (he did post a 137 wRC+ with Nashville and hit 23 home runs in 367 plate appearances).
Hiura elected to be a free agent this offseason and he would be a good fit for a Royals team that is looking for someone to fill that Matt Duffy utility role in 2024. He offers a lot more upside in the power department than Duffy did in 2023, and while his defense is questionable, his bat when it’s on, can more than make up for those deficiencies.
Here’s an example of Hiura showcasing that power in 2022 with this mammoth home run against the Dodgers’ Phil Bickford.
Hiura wouldn’t be a long-term option for the Royals, but he could fill a veteran utility need and he could provide good mentorship to the Royals’ prospects (especially since Hiura went through the highs and lows of prospect stardom).
Furthermore, if he gets off to a hot start in Kansas City, he could easily command a prospect or two by the August Trade Deadline, especially since his HR power would be much-wanted in the postseason.
Javy Guerra, RHP
The Royals struck gold last year by trading for James McArthur, who ended up being one of Kansas City’s best relievers down the stretch. If the Royals want to improve their bullpen in 2024, Picollo will need to find more diamonds in the rough like McArthur.
Guerra could be another success story, though his surface-level metrics aren’t impressive by any means.
He struggled in 19.2 IP between the Brewers and Rays a season ago. He not only posted a 6.05 ERA overall in Milwaukee and Tampa, but he also sported a 0.64 K/BB ratio (which means that he walked more batters than he struck out).
He was better in 11 IP with Tampa (4.09 ERA), though his command issues persisted (0.69 K/BB ratio). In fact, his command has been a problem for Guerra in his time in the big leagues, as he has a career BB% of 14.3% and a K/BB ratio of 1.05. That’s a big reason why he was let go by Tampa this offseason, despite his stuff.
That said, the stuff is intriguing, as he sports an upper 90s four-seamer and slider that sits in the upper 80s with hard movement and can touch up to 90 MPH. When he’s controlling those two pitches, he can be pretty challenging to face, as seen below.
Guerra just turned 28, so he’s still relatively young for a pitcher who debuted in 2019. He’s obviously a project and he would be an easy DFA candidate if things don’t work out (he has no MiLB options remaining).
That said, his profile as a hard thrower with some slider potential is one that Brian Sweeney and the Royals pitching coaches have had success with in their limited time in Kansas City and not just with McArthur, but Aroldis Chapman, Cole Ragans, and Jackson Kowar as well.
Francisco Mejia, C
If the Royals do intend to move on from Salvy this offseason, they will still need catching help. While Freddy Fermin had a promising 2023 season, it may be difficult for him to repeat what he did in his first full season at the Major League level.
Logan Porter was a great story, but it’s hard to imagine him being a long-term option behind the plate, even as a backup. While Carter Jensen and Blake Mitchell are two Royals catching prospects with long-term potential, they won’t impact the Major League roster in 2024.
Thus, the Royals need to look for a catcher who can hold the fort with Fermin for 2024 as Jensen, Mitchell, and other Royals catching prospects continue to develop in the Minors.
Mejia could be the stopgap who could split time with Fermin. Mejia is a switch hitter so he would give the Royals a catcher who could hit from the left side of the plate. He played in Tampa the past three seasons, so he would not just be familiar with Matt Quatraro but bench coach Paul Hoover as well (Hoover primarily worked with catchers in Tampa).
It wasn’t a great year for Mejia last year as he posted an 80 wRC+ in just 160 plate appearances. However, he still showed some power, as he hit five home runs and posted a .173 ISO, his best mark since 2019.
Here’s an example of Mejia not only flashing his home-run swing but also at Kauffman Stadium against Brady Singer.
Mejia would benefit not only offensively but defensively as well by being reunited with Hoover and Quatraro. In addition, Mejia was once a top prospect in the Guardians and Padres system, so he has some potential, even if he may not ultimately turn into what prospect experts projected of him years ago.
There is some talent there with Mejia, and it’s worth the Royals giving him a shot in 2024 to see if he can tap into it in Kansas City, even in a part-time role behind the plate.
Diego Castillo, RHP
Do you see a common thread with these potential Minor League free agents?
Yes, Castillo is the third “former Ray” on this list, as he pitched for Tampa Bay from 2018 to the middle of 2021. That 2021 season was one of his best seasons, which was split between Tampa and Seattle.
In 61 appearances and 58.1 IP, he posted a 2.78 ERA, a 3.74 FIP, and 3.15 xFIP. He also sported an overall K/BB ratio of 4.41 and saved 16 games, with 14 of those saves coming with the Rays.
Unfortunately, Castillo struggled in 2022 with the Mariners, as he saw his ERA inflate to 3.64 and his K/BB ratio regress to 2.41 in 54.1 IP. Last season was even worse as he only made eight appearances and posted a 6.23 ERA and 1.00 K/BB ratio before being demoted to Triple-A Tacoma, where he pitched most of the season.
With the Rays, the 29-year-old was known for generating whiffs at a high rate, especially on his slider. However, his whiff rates have regressed sharply since 2021, as Royals fans can see in the year-by-year chart below, via Savant.
A big issue for Castillo has been his declining velocity over the years. After averaging 98.8 MPH on the four-seamer in 2018, his rookie year, he only averaged 94.2 MPH on it in 2023. He also saw a similar decline in slider velocity, as it went from 88.4 MPH in 2022 to 86.4 MPH in 2023.
His slider has been his bread-and-butter over his career, as he threw it 56.8% of the time last season. However, at that velocity, and when paired with a slower four-seamer, it’s not going to fool as many hitters as it did in the past.
Here’s a look at the slider difference from 2021 when he was with the Rays and last season with the Mariners.
There isn’t much of a movement or velocity difference from what Castillo did in 2021 and 2023, so the potential for the slider to be a good swing-and-miss pitch again is there. One has to wonder if Sweeney and Zach Bove could perhaps help him utilize his sinker more, as it was his primary fastball pitch when he was with the Rays.
Perhaps utilizing the sinker exclusively instead of the four-seamer will help Castillo regain that mojo not just on the slider but overall as well.
If the Royals can help him do that, then they could have a reliever in their bullpen who can handle high-leverage situations, an issue their current crop of relievers (beyond McArthur) struggled in those pressure-packed innings after Scott Barlow was traded away.
Daniel Norris, LHP
Left-handed relievers don’t have as much value as they once did, mostly due to the “three-batter minimum” rules. However, the Royals in 2023 struggled to find much value from their lefty bullpen arms beyond Chapman and Austin Cox.
Well, Chapman is gone and Cox went down with a knee injury (his injury timeline is unclear) so there may not be a lot of dependable options available in terms of lefty relief within the Royals system going into Spring Training.
Norris could help provide a solution to this left-handed bullpen problem.
Royals fans should be familiar with Norris as he has pitched for the Tigers and Guardians in his career. Norris was a starter with the Tigers from 2015 to 2019, but he made the switch to the bullpen in 2020 and started to rebound a bit after the move. He posted a 3.25 ERA in 27.2 IP that season, but he ended up producing a 6.16 ERA between the Tigers and Brewers in 57 IP in 2021.
Last season, Norris struggled with the Guardians, as he posted a 5.68 ERA in seven appearances and 12.2 IP. Norris particularly struggled with control, as he sported a 19% walk rate and K/BB ratio over 0.92. Therefore, it seems like Norris should be an arm the Royals ought to pass on this winter.
On the other hand, he could sign on a Minor League deal, and it’s possible that the Royals could help him modify his mix or pitch shape, which in turn could produce improvement in Kansas City in 2024. He did post a 3.45 ERA in 28.2 IP in 2022 when he returned to Detroit after he was designated for assignment by the Cubs. So in the right situation, Norris can be successful.
The key for Norris will be re-channeling the effectiveness of his changeup, which has been his primary swing-and-miss pitch over his career. Last year, his changeup only produced a whiff rate of 27.5%, a career-low.
A big difference between the changeup last season and even as recently as 2022 has been velocity.
Last year, Norris’ changeup only averaged 82.9 MPH. In 2022? That changeup averaged 86.7 MPH. That’s a huge difference, and it definitely contributed to the regression in pitch quality, which can be seen in the clip compilation below.
I am not sure about what contributed to his velocity difference in 2023 (though it was a small sample). That being said, Royals fans can see that at 79.4 MPH, Norris is lucky that he pinpointed that pitch to Correa, or else it would’ve been smoked out of the ballpark.
The velocity difference may be a sign that Norris is out of gas at 30 years old. On the other hand, there is some potential with his delivery and pitch mix, especially as a lefty.
The only real realistic left-handed option at this point in the Royals bullpen is Tucker Davidson.
Norris deserves at least a shot in Spring Training to show if he can outperform Davidson for that lefty role in 2024.
Photo Credit: Stacy Revere-Getty Images