In part one of my “predictions” recap, I analyzed the preseason predictions I made back in March. Surprisingly, I got more right than I thought, though it was mainly of the pessimistic variety (such as Vinnie Pasquantino having a slightly disappointing season).
In part of this predictions recap, I look at the bold Royals predictions I made around the All-Star break for the second half of the season.
The Royals may have been a better team after the All-Star break in 2023. That said, were my predictions better? Or did I swing and miss on many of them, much like my first-half ones?
Let’s take a look at the five second-half predictions I made after a rough first half of the season and what the verdict was on them by the conclusion of the 2023 season.
Prediction #6: The Royals Will Win at Least 30 Games in the Second Half
Result: Correct!
To be honest, this prediction wasn’t looking too hot at the end of August.
The Royals went 9-19 in August and entered the final month of the season with a 41-94 record. It seemed unlikely that the Royals would win 50 games overall, let alone win the necessary amount to touch that 30-win mark in the second half.
However, the Royals went 15-12 from September 1st to October 1st, which included a season-ending series win over the hated Yankees at Kauffman Stadium to close out the season. The solid 27-game stretch prevented the Royals from setting the franchise record for losses, though with a 56-106 record, they did tie the original record that was set in 2005.
It wasn’t a good season overall for the Royals, but there was a lot to like about the club in the second half, especially in the final month of the season, which felt slightly different from previous “good Septembers” in poor seasons.
They went 30-41 in the second half, good for a winning percentage of .423. That was far better than the 26-65 record and .286 winning percentage they posted prior to the All-Star Break. The Royals not only allowed far fewer runs in the second half (367 to 492) but they actually scored more runs in the second half than in the first half as well (339 to 337).
It’s easy to dismiss the second half as just another example of the Royals playing “well” when the season is already over.
That being said, their 30-win second half does bode some hope that things could be better for manager Matt Quatraro and GM JJ Picollo in year two in 2024.
Prediction #7: MJ Melendez Will Bounce Back After a Rough First Half
Result: Correct, again!
There was hope among Royals fans that Melendez would take the next step offensively in 2023, especially with a move to the outfield (where he could focus primarily on his bat).
Unfortunately, Melendez struggled at the plate in the first half of the season, and as a result, Royals fans began to wonder if Melendez would be part of the Royals’ next winning core.
After the All-Star Break though, Melendez made the necessary adjustments to become not just a productive hitter, but the one Royals fans were hoping he would be back in Spring Training. Below is a look at his month-by-month splits via Fangraphs and notice the progression Melendez saw from July through the end of the season.
Melendez had an underwhelming July where he posted a 82 wRC+. However, in August and September/October, he posted wRC+ numbers of 120 and 145, respectively. Furthermore, his second-half 124 wRC+ was nearly double his first-half wRC+ of 68, and his .836 OPS was 124 points higher than his first-half OPS as well.
Safe to say, he was a completely different hitter in the second half, and he was a big reason why the Royals scored a lot more runs after the All-Star Break (and as a result, won more games as well).
Granted, his future in Kansas City is still not quite clear.
It seems like the Royals are not interested in moving him back to the catcher position, which is interesting since the Royals seem more open to trading Salvador Perez than ever before. Unfortunately, his poor defensive play in the outfield was a big reason why he posted a zero fWAR in 148 games this year.
While that was 0.2 points better than his fWAR in 2022, it still isn’t good enough to guarantee Melendez a long-term spot in the Kansas City outfield, let alone a long-term contract.
Nonetheless, Melendez’s strong second half at least buys him another season of regular at-bats.
If he can build upon this solid second half right out of the gate next season, it’s possible that Melendez could end up being a building block in Kansas City after the 2024 season, along with Bobby Witt, Jr.
Prediction #8: Scott Barlow, Edward Olivares, and Nicky Lopez Will Be Traded
Result: Almost got it!
It went down to the wire, but Picollo ended up trading Barlow to the Padres for prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams, and Nicky Lopez to Atlanta for Taylor Hearn.
The Lopez trade has blown up in the Royals’ face, as Hearn struggled in limited action out of the Kansas City bullpen this year and could be a non-tender candidate this offseason. On the other hand, the Barlow trade has fared much better, as Williams posted a 3.38 ERA and 22.8% K rate in 24 innings with Low-A Columbia.
Unfortunately, Picollo opted to not trade Olivares at the Deadline though that was probably due to his depressed trade value due to a rough stretch in the middle of the season. If Picollo was willing to trade away Nicky for a “likely” disappointing reliever, my guess is that he would’ve traded Olivares had any kind of offer had across their table at the Deadline.
So what prevented Olivares from getting dealt away at the Deadline?
His lackluster defense primarily.
Olivares was seven outs BELOW average in 2023 in the outfield, which included a -2 outs mark in right field and a -5 outs total in left field, according to Savant. As a result, he only played 59 games in the outfield, which shows how bad his defense was in 2023 in terms of OAA.
Despite not being traded away at the Deadline, it isn’t out of the question to think that Olivares could be a trade candidate this offseason.
Even though his glove was an adventure in 2023, he did hit a career-high 12 home runs and posted a 105 wRC+ in 385 plate appearances. He also posted a career-high xwOBA of .340 and BB/K ratio of 0.34, according to Fangraphs. As a result of his sneakily stellar bat, Olivares posted a 0.4 fWAR in 2023, which was a career-high and better than Melendez, Salvador Perez, and Nick Pratto last season.
The current logjam in the Royals outfield with Melendez, Drew Waters, and Dairon Blanco and the solid finishes to the 2023 season by Kyle Isbel and Nelson Velazquez make it seem like Olivares could be expendable this winter.
That said, he definitely has more trade value now than he did a couple of months ago.
Thus, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Royals at least get something in return for Olivares going away, which didn’t seem possible back in July.
Prediction #9: Jonathan Heasley Will Emerge as a Setup Man
Result: Boy was I wrong!
I figured a dark horse would emerge from the Royals bullpen as a reliever to depend upon in 2024. That guy ended up being James McArthur, who may be the Royals’ 2024 Opening Day closer.
Initially, I predicted it would be Heasley, who looked pretty solid in some relief stints in July right before the All-Star Break. Unfortunately, things went south in August, as Royals fans can see in his monthly splits below, via Fangraphs.
After posting a K rate of 21.2% and K-BB% of 15.2% in July, Heasley saw those percentages dip to 5.6% in both categories in August. As a result, the Royals ended up demoting Heasley to Omaha on August 12th and he stayed there for the remainder of the season.
Heasley’s numbers with the Storm Chasers were particularly brutal, as he posted a 6.85 ERA and 5.95 FIP in 32 appearances and 94.2 IP in Triple-A this year. Based on those metrics, it’s not surprising that the Royals opted not to bring him back up in September, even when the rosters expanded.
In his end-of-the-season press conference, Picollo mentioned that the Royals would be moving on from some of their young arms, hinting that those “arms” may have been from the vaunted 2018 Draft Class. That class includes not just Heasley, but also Daniel Lynch, Brady Singer, and Kris Bubic.
It seems like Picollo may have been talking about Heasley, who hasn’t had any injury issues over the past two years (unlike Lynch and Bubic) and has also shown over the past two seasons that he can’t be a successful starter or reliever at the Major League level.
Prediction #10: Kyle Isbel Solidifies Himself As a Regular in Lineup
Result: Sort of!
Of Royals position players, Isbel tied for the 4th-best fWAR on the Royals squad with a 1.1 mark (he tied fellow outfielder Blanco). That’s promising, even if the fWAR is a bit underwhelming in the grand scheme of things.
What makes Isbel’s case interesting is that he doesn’t need to produce excellent or even average offense to be a productive and long-term center fielder in Kansas City. He could be like Michael A. Taylor, who held a regular spot in Kansas City for two seasons due to his Gold Glove-caliber defense.
According to Statcast, Isbel rated in the 92nd percentile in terms of fielding runs value with a total of 9. He was 11 outs ABOVE average in centerfield this year, which is pretty impressive considering how difficult it can be to play that position at Kauffman Stadium.
On a hitting end, he saw just enough improvement in the second half for Royals fans to feel optimistic about his outlook as a regular in 2024.
His .699 OPS in the second half was 87 points better than what he produced in the first half and his 85 wRC+ after the All-Star Break was better than his 61 wRC+ before the Midsummer Classic. Additionally, Isbel cut down his strikeouts (20.5% first-half K rate; 17.7% second-half K rate) while slightly improving his overall eye at the plate as well (0.26 BB/K ratio in the first half; 0.31 BB/K ratio in the second half).
Now, did Isbel guarantee himself the center field position on Opening Day in 2024?
I don’t think so, or at least not yet anyway.
However, he’s put himself as a favorite in a CF competition that should take place in Spring Training in Surprise, Arizona among him, Waters, and Blanco (and that’s if they don’t pick up another outfielder in free agency this winter).
He showed in the second half that he’s got MLB regular potential, especially thanks to his glove and ability on the basepaths (2 runner runs accumulated this year, according to Savant). Now, he just has to stay healthy (a big challenge) and separate himself from the pack next spring in Cactus League play.
Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images