The Royals were officially swept in their final road series of the year in Detroit, as they dropped the conclusion of their suspended game from Wednesday 8-0, and then blew a three-run lead to lose 7-3.

It was a difficult season for the Royals overall against the Tigers, a club they were supposedly “rebuilding with” just a couple of seasons ago. Kansas City went 3-10 against Detroit this year, their worst mark against any AL Central division foe (they surprisingly went 4-9 against the division-winning Twins).

It was a deflating end to a road trip that started with a sweep of the Houston Astros, a playoff team, last weekend. Going into this final home series of the season this weekend, the Royals need to win two of three to avoid setting a new franchise record for losses in a single season.

There weren’t many positive stories to take away from this series against the Tigers, despite Ragans’ eight-strikeout outing today in 6.1 IP. One “less-than-stellar” performance that did stand out though from the Royals’ overall ineptitude at the plate today (and in Detroit overall) was the 0-for-4 day at the plate from Nick Pratto that included three strikeouts.

After a hot start to the 2023 season, it’s been a steady downward progression for the 24-year-old former first-round pick.

Pratto for the season has slashed .228/.306/.352 with a .658 OPS in 337 plate appearances this season. While his batting average is higher than his mark a season ago (.184 in 2022), his slugging is 34 points lower than a season ago, his strikeout rate is 3% higher than in 2022, and his BB/K ratio is also 0.07 points lower as well.

Things looked promising for Pratto in the first half as he hit six home runs and posted a .719 OPS in 257 plate appearances before the All-Star Break. After the break though, things have been absolutely brutal for Pratto at the plate, as he has only hit one home run and is posting a .494 OPS in 76 plate appearances.

The last couple of months have particularly brought down Pratto’s once-stellar line, which can be seen in the Statcast splits below.

Not only has Pratto’s batting average significantly declined each month since he debuted in April, but his power has also been non-existent in the second half. He posted a .273 slugging in July before going on the IL, and since returning this month, he is posting a paltry .212, a big reason why his OPS is .388 so far in September.

Granted, it’s probably likely that Pratto isn’t 100 percent after going on the IL back on July 27th due to a groin strain. Nonetheless, with Vinnie Pasquantino missing most of the season due to a torn labrum, this was a season where Pratto could earn himself a regular position at either first or in the outfield both this year and beyond.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t happened, and not just due to Pratto’s injury, but also because Pratto simply has not gotten it done at the plate in his sophomore season.

This puts Royals general manager JJ Picollo and manager Matt Quatraro in a tough spot when it comes to figuring out what Pratto’s future will look like in Kansas City in 2024.

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Pratto’s Strikeout Issues Getting Worse

Last season, Pratto struggled with making contact and his strikezone judgment, and that is evident in his metrics from his rookie season, via Fangraphs.

Even though Pratto posted a 10.4% walk rate, his K rate was 36.3% and his BB/K ratio was 0.29. For context, his K rate was the third-highest rate of Royals with 50 or more plate appearances in 2022, behind only Adalberto Mondesi and Drew Waters.

To make matters worse, Pratto especially struggled with making contact at the plate as a rookie. Pratto had the second-worst contact rate on the team last year (ahead of only Mondesi) with a 67.6% mark. In fact, he and Mondesi were the only two Royals hitters with contact rates below 70%.

That being said, while Pratto struggled to put the bat on the ball as a rookie in 2022, he at least showed some progress in his strike zone judgment throughout the season, which can be seen in the PLV chart below.

Pratto remained below average in ball/strike correctness throughout the season last year.

Conversely, after dipping in ball/strike correctness from around the 450-pitch mark to the 550-pitch mark, he saw a bit of a spike around the 600th-pitch mark and ended up creeping toward his average of 66% by the end of the season.

As a result, here’s what his hitter-performance PLV chart looked like in 2022 (which gives a glimpse of Pratto’s overall effectiveness as a hitter).

Pratto nosedived around the 700-pitch mark. However, from the 500-pitch mark to roughly the 650-pitch mark he was one of the Royals’ top hitters on a runs-added per 100 pitches end (as evidenced by him being over the 90th percentile from the 600 to 700-pitch range).

There was hope that the drop in hitter performance may have just been a blip on the radar in Pratto’s adjustment against Major League pitchers. On the flip side, there hasn’t been much progress this season in those respective charts.

Here’s a look at what Pratto’s strike zone judgment PLV chart looks like so far this year.

This chart above is a tough one to read because there were some really encouraging positives early on this year.

From the 200-400-pitch mark, Pratto was one of the most judicious hitters on the Royals squad. Since then, he’s hovered around the 25th percentile, and from the 900 to 1000-pitch mark, he was posting a sub-10th percentile mark in ball-strike correctness as well, which is far worse than anything he did a season ago.

At least in his rookie year, Pratto was consistent in his plate discipline, even if it was sub-par. That can’t be said of his strike zone judgment this year, as it has been widely up and down, and been more of the latter as of late.

Consequently, here’s what Pratto’s hitter-performance chart looks like, as of September 28th.

Pratto went from a 90th percentile hitter to a 10th-percentile hitter in roughly 600 pitches. In addition, he’s been absolutely brutal on a plate-discipline end in September as he has struck out 55.7% of the time while not drawing a single walk in 33 plate appearances.

That demonstrates that Pratto has serious issues at the plate with his strike zone judgement and pitch recognition which may not get better in the long-term unless serious approach (and perhaps stance) adjustments are made this offseason.

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Questions About Power

When it comes to Pratto’s production at the plate, on an xwOBA end, he showed some promise earlier in the 2023 season before regressing to numbers that were more typical of what Royals fans were witnessing during his rookie year.

Seeing this trend makes Royals fans wonder: Does Pratto have enough of a power profile to stick at either first base or in the outfield, even in a platoon role?

On one end, the data shows that the potential is there for Pratto to mature into a 20+ HR threat if he can hone his discipline and approach at the plate in 2024 and beyond.

Even though Pratto’s barrel rate is down from 12.4% in 2022 to 8.5% in 2023, he has seen an increase in average exit velocity (86% to 87.4%), hard-hit rate (36.5% to 41.3%), and sweet-spot percentage (34.4% to 41.9%). In terms of home runs, he has seen a higher average exit velocity on balls he has hit out of the park this year compared to 2022.

In the clip compilation below, notice how much harder he hit a ball he pulled for a homer against Colorado at Kauffman this year compared to the one he hit in the same part of the yard against the White Sox a season ago.

That said, while some of the batted-ball metrics hint at some positive progress this year, some other power numbers don’t paint as pretty a picture.

First, his ISO has seen a dramatic decline from a season ago. His ISO went from .203 in 2022 to .126 in 2023, a 77-point regression. Additionally, his HR/FB rate went from 14% last season to 11.5%, another discouraging sign for a first baseman/corner outfielder.

Lastly, take a look at his power PLV charts from 2022 and 2023, and notice the sharp decline at the end of the year in 2023 that was non-existent in his rookie year (scroll left for 2022; right for 2023).

In 2022, Pratto remained around the 90th percentile in expected extra bases added and rarely dipped below that 0.10 mark. This year? He plummeted around the 140th BBE (batted-ball event) and has struggled to rebound since.

Is the drop in power a result of him not being 100% down the stretch and pressing too much at the plate as a result?

Or are there serious long-term concerns about what kind of power production Pratto could possess in the long term?

If it’s the latter, it’s going to be hard to keep Pratto around for much longer, especially with Salvy needing to play more first base to preserve his health and Pasquantino expected to return healthy in 2024.

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What Should the Royals Do With Pratto in 2024?

Right now, it’s hard to see Pratto’s role with this Royals squad as of now, barring a major trade this offseason.

Pratto garnered solid grades defensively from scouts in the Minors (he won a Minor League Gold Glove), but the OAA (outs above average) data paints a different picture, as Royals fans can see below.

In addition, compared to his Royals teammates, Pratto sports the second-worst OAA of any Royals player this season with 25 or more attempts. He’s only better than Edward Olivares and MJ Melendez, who get far more grief from Royals fans for their defensive struggles.

Thus, Pratto hasn’t really shown that he has the glove or baserunning acumen to make up for his inconsistent bat at the Major League level. That is a concern that Pratto doesn’t, or at least shouldn’t fit into the Royals plans beyond this season.

That said, does this mean the Royals will look to trade or perhaps move on from Pratto this offseason?

I don’t think so just yet.

First off, much like Brady Singer, Pratto doesn’t hold a lot of value after his rough end to the 2023 season. The Royals would be practically giving him away in any kind of deal, and that’s not smart baseball, especially considering Pratto’s age (still under 25) and prospect pedigree.

Furthermore, prospect development isn’t always linear. Yes, Pratto is struggling now, but he could turn a corner with an adjustment or two. We have seen it all the time with prospects who started slow early on in their careers, only to turn it on and live up to their hype around year three or four.

Pratto certainly can do that. The batted-ball metrics and early success this year prove that a productive left-handed hitter is lingering in Pratto just waiting to be unleashed.

However, Pratto needs plenty of offseason work, and he will need to make the most of his chances in 2024, especially once Vinnie re back on the field next spring.

If Vinnie gets hot out of the gate with the bat next year, much like he did before or before the injury, then it will be harder and harder to find Pratto at-bats, especially with Pratto’s defensive limitations. The Royals can’t afford to have two left-handed first-base options, especially with Quatraro’s desire to keep the DH spot open for various matchups (at least based on this season).

Nonetheless, it is likely that Pratto will get a few more chances in 2024.

As a Royals fan, I will be rooting and crossing my fingers for him to finally see some consistent success at the plate next year so he can be a long-term piece for this club (after all, I advocated for him to be an extension candidate at one point last year). I also think the glove will get better, which will make him more valuable overall.

If he produces another year offensively though in 2024 like 2023 and 2022 though?

Well, let’s just say the chances may run out by the conclusion of next year, and Pratto could be playing with a different organization in 2025.

Photo Credit: Ed Zurga/Getty Images