Not much has gone right for the Royals in 2023 as they sit with a 26-65 record as of Friday morning. While it was expected to be an “evaluation” season for the Royals, not many fans expected the Royals to be on pace for what could be a record-setting season in terms of losses.
The Royals begin the second half at home against the AL East-leading Tampa Bay Rays and a surging Detroit Tigers club, so it won’t be an easy start after the All-Star Break for the club.
That said, despite how rough the first half was, I think there are some positive things to pay attention to with the Royals after the break, which I looked at in my midseason report regarding hitters and pitchers.
In this post, I make five bold predictions about this Royals club and its outlook for the second half. While it will be another losing season for this club, I do think some things could unfold during these next 71 games that could give hope to this frustrated Royals fanbase.
The Royals Will Win at Least 30 Games in the Second Half
The Royals haven’t been good, but I do think they’ve been unlucky in the second half by a slight margin.
Their run differential of -155 is the second-lowest in the league, but even then, their expected W-L record is 30-61, which means that the Royals are a better team than what they have shown thus far through 91 games.
Last season, the Royals improved their winning percentage from .391 in the first half to .414 in the second half. Though they only won 29 games, after the All-Star Break, a jolt of new talent, and the trades of some veteran guys (Whit Merrifield, Andrew Benintendi) helped turn around the Royals’ ship slightly in the second half.
I believe that the Royals will see several fresh faces, especially on the pitching end of things that will help turn things around slightly in the win column in the second half. The Royals have already promoted Will Klein, Christian Chamberlain, and Jonah Dipoto to Omaha, and just recently, they also promoted Steven Cruz, the Naturals closer, to Triple-A.
Cruz was a prospect the Royals received (along with Evan Sisk) in the Michael A. Taylor trade with Minnesota. Furthermore, the Royals could also get a contribution from John McMillon, an undrafted free agent from the 2020 Draft class, who has been absolutely tearing up High-A and Double-A batters this year thanks to his electric fastball and stuff in general.
Even though the results haven’t been there so far, I envision the Royals pitching, bullpen particularly, turning things around slightly in the second half, especially after the Trade Deadline. It wouldn’t be surprising to see arms like Nick Wittgren, Jose Cuas, Collin Snider, and even Taylor Clarke no longer on the Royals roster come August 1st.
Last year, it was the addition of fresh faces in the lineup and field that turned around the Royals’ momentum. This year, it will be the pitching, bullpen especially, that provides that pivot in the second half.
MJ Melendez Will Bounce Back After a Rough First Half
Going into 2023, it was expected that the Royals lineup would depend on Bobby Witt, Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and MJ Melendez to take a step forward if this club wanted to be competitive.
Witt has taken some steps forward in June after a slow start in April and May. Vinnie was on the verge of having another solid season until a shoulder injury cut his season short.
As for MJ, it’s been a disappointing season of regression, as Jordan Foote of One Royals Way pointed out on Twitter.
Melendez ranks last on this Royals team in fWAR with a -0.9 mark. He also is posting a 71 wRC+, which is better than only Kyle Isbel and Michael Massey when it comes to Royals players who have seen regular playing time (and even then, Isbel and Massey have had stints on the IL).
Originally seen as a building block to the future of the Royals, Melendez’s outlook in Kansas City looks hazy at best, especially with him struggling defensively in the outfield this year.
That said, I don’t think Royals fans should throw in the towel completely on MJ just yet.
The batted-ball quality is still solid for Melendez, even amidst his slow start. His average exit velocity ranks in the 94th percentile and his hard-hit rate ranks in the 91st percentile, according to Savant. He also ranks in the 74th percentile in barrel rate and 70th percentile in walk rate, which are two encouraging signs that he could be due for a turnaround over the next 71 games.
Despite Kauffman being a graveyard for gap hitters, when Melendez connects with the ball properly, he has shown that his power can overcome those challenging park factors.
Now, Melendez isn’t going to turn things around without some adjustments on his end.
Melendez has seen a huge drop in his decision value metrics, according to Pitcher List’s PLV data. At one point in the year, he was in the 90th percentile of runs added per 100 pitches. However, he hit a huge decline around the 1200th pitch, a sign that he was getting impatient and trying to do too much to get himself out of his slump.
Melendez needs to re-harness that confidence that made him a productive hitter for the most part in 2022 and in May of this year (102 wRC+ that month).
Does that require a short stint to Omaha? Does it require another change in his stance or approach?
Whatever the solution is, I think MJ finds what is needed in the second half and finishes the 2023 season strong. As a result, he puts himself back in the discussion of being a long-term piece for the Royals after this year.
Or at the very least become a more valuable trade chip next offseason.
Scott Barlow, Edward Olivares, and Nicky Lopez Will Be Traded
At this point, it seems like a foregone conclusion that Barlow will be gone by the August 1st Trade Deadline. If you type in “Scott Barlow” on Twitter, you will see a whole bunch of possible trade scenarios involving the Royals closer.
Olivares and Lopez don’t necessarily have the trade market value that Barlow has at this moment. That said, while they are probably reserves/platoon players on more competitive teams, they should be able to generate some kind of return, especially if they can finish the month of July on a positive note.
Olivares is posting a -0.3 fWAR as of Friday, July 14th. However, most of his value is deflated due to his poor fielding, as he is 8.2 runs below average in the outfield, according to Fangraphs’ Def metric. Offensively though, while streaky, he can be productive in the right opportunities.
While his 89 wRC+ and .303 wOBA are underwhelming marks, he is posting a .343 xwOBA and a career-high 8.0 percent barrel rate. Surprisingly, according to his splits, he actually is hitting righties (96 wRC+) better than lefties (76 wRC+) this season, which could intrigue some teams who are looking for a right-handed bat with some flexibility.
Lopez is an even tougher trade asset because his bat has stagnated since his breakout 2021 season. His 0.7 fWAR is tied for third-highest on the Royals, as of Friday (along with Freddy Fermin). That being said, most of his value comes from his glove, as he is 4.7 runs above average, according to Fangraphs’ Def.
Hitting-wise, while he doesn’t offer the pop of Olivares, he has shown a much more disciplined approach in comparison to a year ago.
His 0.68 BB/K ratio is a career-high (so far), and his 28.2 percent chase rate is 5.4 percent lower than his mark in 2022. The power isn’t there (0.0 percent barrel rate), but his average exit velocity is up to 86.6 MPH, which is 2.7 MPH higher than last season.
A new wrinkle that may add to his market value is the recent development of Lopez playing in the outfield. He made his debut in left field in Cleveland right before the break, and he already is making plays, even though he’s never played in the outfield at the Major League level, prior to this season.
Lopez, much like Olivares, won’t get a tremendous return. However, I think he has more value than some Royals fans think, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him on a new squad come August.
Jonathan Heasley Will Emerge as a Setup Man
It hasn’t been the greatest season for Heasley, who came into this season on shaky ground when it came to what his role would be on this roster.
On the other hand, it seems like the Royals have transitioned Heasley to the bullpen, and so far, the early results are promising.
In three outings and 4.2 IP, Heasley is posting a 3.86 ERA is posting a 16.7 percent K rate with a 0.0 walk rate. Considering Heasley’s command issues in 2022 (4.9 K-BB% last year), to see Heasley find the strike zone more regularly in relief is encouraging to see.
The sample size for Heasley at the Major League level is still small, so some Royals fans may still be skeptical. In Triple-A, though the 7.51 ERA is ugly, he showed a lot of progress when moved to the bullpen, which included him improving his K/BB percentage to 11.1 percent, and showing more life and velocity on his pitches as well.
The Royals most likely will need relievers on the 40-man to step up when Barlow is traded. Heasley appears to be a candidate to really fill into a setup role once Barlow leaves, which could give the Royals a dependable late-inning reliever for years to come.
Kyle Isbel Solidifies Himself As a Regular in Lineup
Isbel has been a source of frustration for Royals fans, as he hasn’t really taken ahold of the starting center field job in Kansas City after Michael A. Taylor was traded in the offseason.
Defensively, Isbel is holding his own and then some. Despite only playing in 32 games this year due to a hamstring sprain, he has been 1.8 runs above average according to Fangraphs. Isbel has shown a tremendous ability to make great plays in center field, and he and Drew Waters make an excellent defensive combo in center and right field, respectively.
The main issue for Isbel is the hitting, as he had made MAT look like a hitting machine by comparison over the past two years.
Last year, he only posted a 67 wRC+ and .265 wOBA in 278 plate appearances. This season, he is posting a 63 wRC+ and .267 wOBA in 132 plate appearances. That’s not going to cut it for everyday playing time, even with his Gold-Glove caliber defense in center.
On the other hand, Isbel had a strong finish to the first half, which included a home run in Cleveland off former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber.
The hard-hit data support a positive improvement for Isbel in the second half. He has improved his average exit velocity from 89.7 MPH last year to 90.6 MPH and his barrel rate (7.2 percent) and hard-hit rate (45.4 percent) are up as well from 2022.
With some slight adjustments (lowering his 30 percent O-Swing% would be a step in the right direction), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Isbel be an 85-95 wRC+ hitter in the second half this year, which would be enough for an outfielder with his defensive abilities.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Reed Hoffmann
This franchise has made optimism hard lately, but I appreciate your generally positive approach. I’m not always sure how you manage it writing about them every day- I took the easy way out and chose to write about a period of baseball when they were usually good- but know it’s appreciated. And I hope your predictions come to fruition. My preseason predictions were so terrible that I’m not even going to try and throw any of my own out.
Thanks man. I appreciate that and it isn’t easy but I just love the game of baseball and covering the Royals so i enjoy it, regardless of how tough it is haha. And I’m hoping for that too. And i get it about the first half predictions. Mine were pretty brutal too 🤦🏻♂️
Could see Barlow to the Braves with Nick Anderson out of the picture, especially since he has another year.
Yeah I think there’s going to be a market, maybe more than Chapman because Chapman is a FA after this year while Barlow still has one more year. But Atlanta makes a lot of sense
Mr. O’B, BWJ seems to have calmed his approach after (IMO) pressing to begin the season. I believe MJ needs to do the same. My question is does the team have a sports psychologist or some such available if a young player struggles mentally?
Yeah they do. Can’t remember her name but they hired her to be full time. I’m sure she’s doing her job and I gotta imagine MJ is a priority. He seems like a guy who’s more cerebral than BWJ so I think once the switch happens, it’ll be pretty substantial
[…] Despite the disappointing results, I still wanted to look back on two sets of bold predictions that I made in the past season: One in Spring Training, before Opening Day; and the other at the All-Star Break, in preparation for the second half. […]
[…] part of this predictions recap, I look at the bold Royals predictions I made around the All-Star break for the second half of the […]