The MLB Draft can be polarizing, especially among casual baseball fans.
The MLB Draft is a much different beast from its NFL, NBA, and even NHL counterparts. Due to the signing bonus system, and the option for high school and college underclassmen to not sign and elect to go/return to school, the draft order rarely unfolds as expected, especially after the first few picks.
This can cause all kinds of frustration among fanbases during the draft, especially when a perceived “higher ranked” prospect does not go in the “projected” draft slot in a particular round.
The Royals fanbase is not exempt from this kind of frustration, with this year being a particularly explosive one after the Royals opted to go with prep catcher Blake Mitchell at the number eight spot in the first round.
Mitchell, ranked 14th overall by MLB Pipeline, was a surprise pick by the Royals, who had been tied heavily to University of Virginia catcher Kyle Teel and Oregon prep pitcher Noble Meyer before the Sunday night draft.
Prep catchers do not have the best reputation or history in the MLB draft, unfortunately.
For a club that’s not had a winning season since 2015, the Mitchell selection seemed to be overly risky for the Royals, especially with a safer college catcher still on the board (Teel ended up going to Boston at 14).
Without a doubt, the Royals have opted for a different draft strategy in comparison to a season ago, when 17 of the 19 players that they drafted and signed were college players. On the first day alone, two of the Royals’ three picks were prep talents (the other being high school pitcher Blake Wolters).
While Teel appeared to be the safer pick at number eight, it also was evident that JJ Picollo and scouting director Danny Ontiveros were overly enamored with Mitchell’s tools and outlook at the Major League level, even if it would take a little more time and was a riskier selection that would be met with some mixed fanfare.
Even though one more day of the MLB Draft remains, with the All-Star break going on, and no Royals participants in the All-Star festivities beyond Salvy in the game tomorrow, it’s hard to write or analyze anything regarding the Royals beyond Kansas City’s draft selections.
That said, I’m going to stay away from doing any kind of “grades”, for we don’t know how the third day is going to turn out, and it’s going to be years before we really know how any of these picks will turn out. Royals fans were giving a lot of “A grades” to Asa Lacy back in 2020 after all (including myself).
In part one of this draft preview, let’s take a look at what the Royals did on day one of the draft, and dive into the players and whether or not they could have a long-term impact from this 2023 draft class thus far.
Blake Mitchell, Sinton HS (TX), C, 8th overall.
The first day of the draft for the Royals proved to be jarring for a lot of Royals fans, especially when Rob Manfred announced that the Royals would be selecting Mitchell, not Teel, at 8th overall.
On one end, I get it. Catching prospects in general, let alone ones from high school, are a tremendous risk. For every Buster Posey and Joe Mauer, there is a Chase Vallot and Tommy Joseph who fail to live up to the tremendous hype. Even then, the Vallots and Barts are more common than the Poseys and Mauers of the professional baseball world.
However, there’s a lot to like about Mitchell.
First off, the kid has the pedigree and tools to be a franchise-changing player.
Mitchell not only won two state titles in high school in a highly competitive Texas prep scene, but he also stood out in the travel circuit, especially in the prestigious Area Code games. While high school numbers are always tough to gauge, he did show a pristine eye at the plate by walking 51 times and only striking out eight times during his senior season in high school.
In terms of his batting skills, he shows good balance at the plate, with power to all fields, which can be seen in the highlight clip below.
His swing is already smooth, and he could even add more power as he grows into his frame. The big question will be how his hit tool and plate discipline adjust to professional pitching, especially as he progresses through the Royals’ Minor League system.
On a defensive end, he showcases excellent athleticism and a sound arm. He’s very much like MJ Melendez in the sense that he could move to the outfield if necessary (which isn’t always the case with prep catchers). His arm strength may be the strong aspect of his defensive profile, as he demonstrated on the showcase circuit.
The most interesting part about Mitchell’s outlook and projection as a player is that he was also a highly-rated pitcher in high school. He sports a three-pitch mix, which includes a fastball that ranges from 93-96 MPH. At the very least, he could be a pitcher who could profile similarly to Brady Singer, if he decided to continue that path at the professional level.
While it’s unlikely that Mitchell will continue pitching as a professional, this aspect of his game shows that he’s uber-athletic, and could perhaps transition to that role should catching not work out at the professional level.
Regardless, while there is considerable risk with Mitchell, and Picollo and Ontiveros may be staking their futures on Mitchell panning out, I have grown to like the pick. I know he’s a lot more of a wild card than Teel, and it’s hard to see a guy like Teel not get picked when it appeared like he would be a great fit for the organization.
That said, I appreciate the boldness of Picollo and Ontiveros here, even if it may be an unpopular move.
Last year, they played it safe in the draft, selecting mostly “safer” college talent, which paid off in some rounds (Javier Vaz, Steven Zobac, etc.), but also didn’t completely hit either (top pick Gavin Cross has struggled). Picollo and Ontiveros going a different route is commendable and shows the confidence they have in their development at the lower levels.
But if Mitchell becomes another Ashe Russell or even Bubba Starling…well those two may not be in the Royals front office for long.
Blake Wolters, Mahomet-Seymour HS (IL), RHP, 44th overall.
The rumor has been that the Royals selected Mitchell because he would sign “under” the recommended slot bonus, which would allow them to spend more in the consequential rounds. The Royals employed this strategy in 2021 by selecting Frank Mozzicato, which allowed them to spend over the recommended slot for Ben Kudrna with their next pick.
That said, former Rockies GM and MLB Network analyst feels that the Royals picked Mitchell because they felt he was the best available and not just due to “slot savings”.
We will see after the draft concludes whether or not the Royals will save money with Mitchell. Nonetheless, it is obvious that the Royals may need to go slightly over-slot with second-round pick Blake Wolters, a right-handed Arizona pitching commit.
Wolters possesses a three-pitch mix with a fastball that can sit in the upper 90s. At 6’4 and 215 pounds, he also carries a big frame, and he should be able to add velocity and durability over time as he fills into that frame while in the Royals system.
Joe Doyle, formerly of Prospects Live, was complimentary of the pick, noting that he sported a great fastball-breaking ball combo that could get even better as a professional with help from the Royals; player development team.
Prep pitchers are just a step down from prep catchers in terms of risk. That said, the Royals’ pitching development team, which was reshuffled this offseason, has seen some positive gains with their high school arms recently.
Mozzicato was recently promoted to High-A after a solid start this season in Low-A Columbia, and Kudrna could be joining him soon after finishing the first half on a positive note.
Fellow 2021 draft pick Shane Panzini had a tough recent start, but his 4.06 ERA is still much better than a season ago, and he has made some positive steps in development, even if it may be ultimately in relief.
Expect Wolters to be another success story in the Royals organization, especially since he may have more upside than any of those three 2021 prep selections.
While there’s a lot to be excited about with Wolters, I imagine that the Royals will take it slow with him this season and in 2024, just like they did with Mozzicato, Kudrna, and Panzini the past two seasons.
Carson Roccaforte, University of Louisana-Lafayette, OF, 66th overall.
Roccaforte was a bit of a surprise at 66, not just with Royals fans but draft experts, especially since MLB Pipeline ranked him as the 129th-best prospect going into the draft.
At the surface level, many Royals fans will feel that Roccaforte was an “over-draft” by the Royals. Looking deeper into his profile though, it’s possible that the Royals may have gotten a mid-major sleeper, much like Vinnie Pasquantino in the 2019 draft (who went in the 11th round).
What’s interesting about Roccaforte is that he had a great junior season but a slightly less impressive senior campaign.
In 2022, Roccarfote slashed .374/.435/.671, hit 16 home runs and stole 25 bases in 58 games and 256 plate appearances. After a rough Cape Cod campaign that saw him hit .182 in 83 plate appearances, he came back for his senior season with the Ragin Cajuns and slashed .318/.426/.538 in 65 games and 289 plate appearances. His home run total also dropped to eight and his stolen base total dropped to 22 (which included him being caught 12 times).
Safe to say, why did the Royals select him with their Competitive Balance B-round pick?
Because the batted ball data from 2023 was still really encouraging, and it’s possible that the Royals hitting development team could perhaps make some minor adjustments with him to help him get back to where he was in 2022.
The Royals have had success with mid-major guys who came in with flaws and helped them progress through the system.
Vinnie was coming off an injury-plagued season in 2018 at Old Dominion (which explains why he fell so far in the draft). Kyle Isbel came from UNLV and was a light-hitting second baseman when drafted. Brewer Hicklen was drafted as an athletic outfielder who had swing-and-miss issues, and he made his MLB debut last season (though he has had a much tougher time this year after getting hurt in Spring Training).
I think Roccarforte has at least an Isbel-esque outlook that could turn into a Drew Waters-lite, should he stay healthy and develop properly. He seemed to be pressing in 2023 due to the hype from his solid 2022 and disappointing Cape Cod campaign, though he was able to turn it around with a decent performance in the NCAA Tournament against Texas.
Now that he’s finally been drafted and the pressure is off, I’m curious to see if Roccaforte can thrive once again.
The hitting and defensive tools are there to be at least a fourth outfielder at the Major League level, as his glove could perhaps rival Isbel’s. He also could turn into more if the hitting tool develops in the Minor Leagues, which is something that hasn’t quite come to fruition for Isbel at the MLB level thus far.
Photo Credit: Angela Piazza/Caller-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK
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