One can say it’s been a cruel summer for Royals starting pitcher Zack Greinke.
After being named Royals pitcher of the month for May, it was a rough June for the eventual Royals Hall of Famer (and perhaps Cooperstown inductee).
In 25 innings of work last month, Greinke not only posted a 7.56 ERA, but he also gave up a wOBA of .405 and a HR/9 of 1.80. That was a far cry from the 2.30 ERA, .230 wOBA, and 0.86 HR/9 he posted in 31.1 IP in May.
If that wasn’t enough, Greinke’s July didn’t get off to a great start either against the division-leading Twins in Minnesota. On the Fourth of July, the 39-year-old gave up six runs on seven hits and three home runs in 5.1 innings of work. The rough start brought up his ERA to 5.44 in 92.2 IP this season.
If that wasn’t enough, Greinke also left the game in the sixth inning due to shoulder discomfort, according to reports.
Thankfully, the early reports on Greinke’s injury status are promising. According to MLB.com Royals beat writer Anne Rogers, and manager Matt Quatraro said that the shoulder discomfort didn’t look too bad, and they were confident that he would be okay and recover from the issue*.
*Had an update on Greinke’s injury status which I talk about at the end of the post
With the All-Star break looming, Greinke will have time to rest and recover, especially since it’s likely that he will not make another start for the Royals until after the All-Star Break. That said, with his high ERA and the Royals sitting at 25-61 going into Wednesday’s series finale against the Twins, one has to wonder how Quatraro and the Royals will utilize him in the second half.
“Locked On Royals,” podcast host Jack Johnson asked the question on Twitter after Greinke’s start. From a Royals fan perspective, it appears that Greinke is the least of their concerns at this moment, especially since it’s looking likely that this will be his final season in the Majors if this trend continues.
Nonetheless, the Royals are at a crossroads as an organization where they are evaluating who’s part of the long-term plan in Kansas City and who’s most likely on their way out. While Greinke is obviously not part of the Royals’ long-term plans, they do need someone who can make starts and eat innings in an efficient and positive fashion.
As of July 5th, the Royals rank 27th in ERA as a starting pitching staff, and Jordan Lyles has struggled to pitch productively as their primary free-agent pitcher signing this past offseason. Thus, the Royals need a healthy and semi-productive Greinke going forward in the second half to keep this club respectable and from totally tanking in the standings.
Will Greinke turn a corner after the All-Star Break and channel that efficient form that he demonstrated two months ago?
Or is his rough June and his lone start in July a sign that Greinke may not have what it takes anymore to be a regular starter in a Major League rotation?
Let’s take a look at where Greinke has struggled over the past month, where he’s showing signs of encouragement, and what the Royals will look to do with their longtime starting pitcher in the second half.
Batted Ball Struggles in June and July
A big issue for Greinke over the past month has been that he’s been giving up too much hard contact and barrels, which is contributing to his high HR/9 numbers and inflation in ERA.
When looking at his slugging percentage rolling chart from this season, Greinke saw some dips in slugging percentage allowed around that May mark. However, he recently saw a spike in that percentage over his last 100 plate appearances, according to Savant.
This spike correlates with his rough performance in June and early July. Furthermore, when looking at the batted ball data from his last six starts, via Pitcher List, it’s easy to see that the quality of contact from opposing hitters is much higher during this stretch.
Once again, this contributed to his rough numbers over the past month of play, especially when it comes to barrels allowed.
For the season, Greinke is allowing a barrel rate of 8.4 percent, which is nearly two percent higher than the league average. During this most recent six-game stretch, Greinke had three outings where he not only allowed a barrel rate higher than the league average, but higher than his season’s average as well.
This included yesterday’s start against the Twins, as he allowed a barrel rate of 15 percent. Surprisingly, his hard-contact percentage allowed was actually 29.2 percent, which was 0.8 percent below his season average. Thus, Greinke wasn’t making as many mistakes as usual, but the Twins simply pounced and made the most out of the mistake pitches he did throw on Tuesday.
An example of a Greinke mistake being taken advantage of was this Donovan Solano opposite-field home run in the bottom of the fifth inning.
If the season ended today, Greinke’s barrel rate allowed would be the highest mark of his career.
Thus, in order for Greinke to get back to where he was in May, he will need to be able to limit those barrels and ideal plate appearances that have dogged him over the past month.
Greinke’s Fastballs Doing Him No Favors
Last season, on a run-value end according to Savant, the four-seamer was one of Greinke’s better pitches. It produced a -9 run value in 2022, and on simply a run-value end, it has continued to produce positive results for the most part, which can be seen below.
While there is value to run-value metrics when it comes to evaluating pitchers (especially starting pitchers), Greinke is a prime example of why looking at the whole pitch profile is important. Even though Greinke has succeeded in preventing runs with the four-seamer over the past two years, he has given up an xwOBA of .411 and .420 over the past two seasons with the pitch. That is a big difference from the .351 and .347 wOBAs in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
With a hard-hit rate of 48.3 percent and a paltry whiff rate of 17.7 percent, it’s not a surprise that despite a -2 run value on the four-seamer this year, his xwOBA is 73 points higher than his actual wOBA this season.
That means that should any regression hit on the four-seamer, which has been the case recently, then the run values, and metrics as a whole on the pitch, will look a lot less impressive by the end of the season.
What makes this regression likely is that on a PLV pitch quality end, the four-seamer, and his sinker, have not been good pitches, which can be seen in the PLV comparison below, via Pitcher List.
(Scroll left for 2023; scroll right for 2022).
The sinker has been slightly better on a PLV end this year, as it has improved 4 points from a season ago. That said, Greinke’s four-seamer has seen a major regression in pitch quality, as it has decreased 24 points in PLV from 2022 and the PLA has also decreased 56 points this season as well.
That is not a good outlook for his fastball pitches going forward, especially when he grooves pitches in hittable areas. Here’s a look at his heatmap this season on base hits allowed on the four-seamer and sinker this year.
Obviously, those are areas of the strike zone that hitters will do damage on, especially with fastball pitches that average less than 90 MPH.
Even when he locates the pitch in decent areas, the lack of quality on the fastball pitches still gets exposed. This is evidenced by these home runs below from Detroit’s Riley Greene (on the sinker) and the Angels’ Mike Trout (on the four-seamer) in the clip compilation below.
As Royals fans can see in the PLV charts, Greinke has shown some positive progress in developing the pitch quality of his secondary pitches, especially his change and curve. That has helped him stay afloat and effective as a starter, especially when his command is on.
However, considering the PLV regression on his four-seamer, which he throws a majority of the time at 24 percent, it’s going to be tough for him to find consistent success in the second half of the season.
Unless of course, he scraps the pitch’s usage even more after the All-Star Break.
On the flip side though considering he’s thrown it 15 percent less than a year ago, I’m not sure how much more Greinke can go without throwing his primary four-seamer, which he has leaned on throughout his career.
Movement of Cutter and Slider Having an Effect?
Another interesting, though minor, note about Greinke’s progress this season has been the difference in the movement profile of his pitch arsenal this year compared to 2022.
Here’s an image comparison of the movement profile via PLV from last year and this year.
(Scroll left for 2023; scroll right for 2022).
It’s interesting to see the four-seamer and sinker both possess more arm-side horizontal movement this season in comparison to a year ago and the slider has sharper glove-side horizontal break, but less drop (in fact, the curve also is possessing slightly less drop compared to 2022 as well).
A season ago, the slider and cutter both shared sat in the same areas of the movement chart, which made it tougher for hitters to distinguish. Considering the cutter averaged 85.8 MPH and the slider averaged 81.8 MPH last season, that difference had an effect on opposing hitters, since they both shared similar horizontal and vertical movement profiles.
Here’s a look at the cutter and the slider playing well off each other this season.
It’s a nasty combo indeed and has been a low-key factor in Greinke’s recent success in Kansas City.
That said, they aren’t falling in the same area as they were a season ago, even on swinging strikes. And that’s having an effect on their outcomes and opposing hitters’ approaches, which can be seen in the swinging strike heatmap comparison between 2022 and 2023.
(Scroll left for 2023; scroll right for 2022).
Notice the gap in the red dots in 2023. That’s the difference between swinging strikes on the slider (up) and cutter (down).
And if opposing hitters know that difference in the location of the two pitches, they’re more likely to lay off than they did a season ago or sit on a pitch in one area of the zone.
Considering the xwOBA on both pitches has risen from a year ago, it’s likely that hitters and teams have caught on to the difference between the two pitches and their movement profiles this season.
What’s Greinke’s Outlook for the Second Half?
As I was writing this post, the Royals announced that Greinke was being moved to the 15-Day IL due to shoulder tendinitis (which in turn brings up reliever Dylan Coleman, who I talked about in my post yesterday).
Last season, Greinke had a right flexor strain that kept him out for roughly a month from late May to early June. Most tendonitis injuries last two-to-four weeks, so I would bet on Greinke returning to the club in Mid-August, shortly after the Trade Deadline.
That makes it likely that Greinke would finish the year as a Kansas City Royals, especially since he wouldn’t be likely eligible to return until after the Trade Deadline.
Then again, I’m not sure that Greinke would want to be traded anyways, especially since he has signed with the Royals over other clubs the past two seasons, most likely due to his desire to finish his career with the organization that drafted him.
When he returns though, this could be a much younger group that could make his starts more limited down the stretch of the 2023 season.
It’s likely Alec Marsh and Austin Cox will get more work, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see guys like Cole Ragans, Jonathan Bowlan, Anthony Veneziano, and Max Castillo getting starts or long-relief work come August when Greinke returns.
Castillo is an intriguing pitcher who was just named pitcher of the month for Omaha in June and he didn’t do poorly in his limited MLB action this year with the Royals.
Nonetheless, it will be likely that Greinke could be joining a six-man rotation which should preserve him a bit down the stretch. That could affect his ability to hit certain records, but it will at least give him a better chance to finish the 2023 season fully healthy.
The Royals can’t part way with Greinke right now, especially considering where they are at as a pitching staff. They need him to provide not just mentorship to the young arms, but provide some kind of stability in the rotation as well, which he was doing for the past two years.
This certainly hasn’t been the way Greinke wanted to go out, but it’s not surprising, especially considering father time’s track record.
Let’s just hope he gets healthy, makes some minor adjustments to his pitch mix, and finishes the season on a positive note.
It would be a shame for Greinke to his Royals career like Danny Duffy did: On the Injured List.
Photo Credit: AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
[…] a disclaimer, I didn’t look at Zack Greinke, whose PLV data I dove into pretty deeply in a more recent post, Alec Marsh, who doesn’t have enough pitch data yet, or Scott Barlow, who I feel will be […]